wshahan

Very strange afternoon, we got a 5 minute rally at 2:00 capped by a collapse after 2:40 CST. Today featured rotational trade in a very narror range and thus was very difficult to trade as I repeatedly cautioned. I will do a wrap up this evening as there were some learning opportunities worth exploring in today's trading. Spookywill

1:59 We have a three print buyng ledge at 1384. Aggresive traders can go long at this price or lower and see if we get a last hour run. Spookywill

The time it took to write and post the entry missed the trade. What a day. I am long from 1380.50. There was a break out buy signal at that price, and then the trade developed to fast to write and post it. Now watch for the big move up to test today's high, then yesterday's high. This is the sharp move up that I warned about earlier in th day, we had a breakout signal in the 5 minute chrt, and we had a strong bottom formation in the 30 min. chart At this time we have rotated back to the High volume area and have not penetrated it to the upside. The key for the rest of the day is does the morning high hold. If it is penetrated, we could see much er prices tomorrow..

We now have a one tick bottom on the 30 minute chart. As I write prices are back to 1381. I would colse shorts entered at 1381 and be looking for a pull back to go long..

1:10 CST We just took out the morning lows by one tick. Next is the Globex low at 1377.25, and then yesterday’s low of 1371.75 and at then the Globex low yesterday of 1359.25. This is a good place to attempt to rotate back up, so don’t be alarmed, just be aware. Prices are attempting to rotate higher, so only time will tell. Spookywill

I believe a break to lower prices is very near. Hold shorts or get short 1381 or better, stop 1383.75

12:09 CST We rotated down and tested this morning’s low which held. The likely event after this is to rotate back up and, once again test yesterday’s high volume area (1384-1386.) So far, prices have been unable to do this, and I am still short. In a day like this with a narrow range and rotational type trading, if you get more than three points, conservative traders can profits. In today’s case prices traded down from 1385 area to 1379.50 and spent 30 minutes in the 1380 area before rising to 1383.50. 1383 held and offered another short entry at 10:55. Another potentially interesting factoid is that when you have such low range, rotational type trading in the early session, there is possibility that you will a sharp move later in the session. Be alert for this. So far we have a balanced day and this frequently produces a good move later in the session. (See Above.) At this juncture we have developed balance between approximately 1385 and 1380, so go with a break in either direction. No range equals a boring day. Boring days sometimes lead to “Frustration Trades” or chasing trades. Go fishing for finny fish instead. As I complete this post, prices are rotating higher, and we have a higher low. If we don't get higher prices soon, the odds increase for a retest of today's lows. Spookywill

12:04 Yoiu are absolutely right. I got side tracte and neglected to get the short posted. And the speed of the decline trumped my posting. This is the only time I have ever entered a delayed post. If it happens again the thing to do woud be to note the delay. Spookywill

9:55 CST Keep in mind the caveat: today is likely to be a choppy day within yesterday’s range. We traded back into yesterday’s high volume area and prices failed. Same trade as last time, but if the trade becomes profitable (goes below 1382, set stops to break even. Short at 1384.25, stop 1386.50 Spookywill

9:43 CST We have now taken out the 9:00 30 min bar low but are holding above the balance area formed in the premarket. Our initial target is today’s low at 1377.75 followed by 1365 and 1360. Stop is 1384.75. Caution: Today s liable to be very choppy and very difficult to trade. As I am writing this, prices declined to our original buy point and have bounce bat to their day session highs. What we are seeing is no range development, ie no conviction, and hence poor opportunities so far in the session. My inclination is to scrub the trade and await developments. As I am writing, we are back at today’s high so scrubbing the trade seems appropriate. The 9:30 bar has now overlapped the 9:00 bar and that is a buy signal. Spookywill

9:25 CST The 9:30 bar slightly exceeded the 8:30 one, 1384.75 to 1384.50. We have also traded back into the lower part of yesterday’s high volume node and failed there. An implication of this formation is that the high in the 9:30 bar has a 65% chance of becoming today’s upper range extreme if the 9:00 bar high holds. We want to sell 1383 or better. I am short from 1383.25 Spookywill

Goood question and I needed to be more precise. Volume dried up after the ealy push up which was on high volume. Volume dried up from 11:30 CSTon until near the close., You can see how prices flatterned in a narrow range after that until the last 45 minute selloff which again produced volume. The low volume through the middle of the day was indicative of potential upside exhaustion. This preceeded the Globex sell off and continuued through the overnight sesssion until 5:30 CST.

8:50 CST I have missed a long trade in the ES From 1381 area. We just took out 1382 and aggressive traders can go long upon a pullback to that area (which just occurred.) . We have a bullish pattern on the 39 minute chart at the opening without much conviction, and not much range so far. Breaking today’s low would give a short signal.

4.18.2012 pre market 8:07 AM CST Yesterday’s day session top doubled topped with the April 10th high. Since then, prices in the ES have been working their way back into yesterday’s range and have retraced about half of the day session’s range. Yesterday’s run up was on low volume and could be subject to retracement today. The most likely case after a day like yesterday is for trade consolidation within yesterday’s range. 1374 remains important support followed by yesterday’s day session low of 171.75, and the Globex low of 1359.75. Yesterdays high of 1388.75 is our key reference area to the upside.

The question came up several times today about looking for an entry to go short in Tuesday's strong market. Here is a repost from last week that addresses the subject.-Spookywill Don't Try to Fade the Rally The temptation of many traders, even experienced ones is to want to fade a sudden, sharp run and to attempt to go short. This, the vast majority of the time, is a mistake. Buy pullbacks in strong markets like Tuesday’s trend day up. Do not fade a strong trend. This bit of information will save you a lot of money and physiological distress. Hope this info will be useful. Spookywill

Reply to gosu: Maybe you should consider a Rule 1(a): making calls on a message board to make a display of trading prowess is an unnecessary drag on clear thinking. I can see someone doing it once in awhile for shits and giggles, and I myself have engaged in it in the past. But to commit to doing it for 30 days reveals where you are in the bigger picture. I do see the golden C underneath your ID. I'm not making a judgment regarding the propriety or impropriety of you being a vendor, but I'm curious what you offer commercially - books, courses, services, etc. Regardless, I enjoy your posts and the interaction it causes among the members, some of it hilariously entertaining (e.g., the Phantom menace of TL versus the Jedi steve46). • Like I was not aware that I was designated as a vendor to traders Lab. I certainly have made no attempt to solicit any form of business activity while I have been here. The email address I gave was a business one so I assume that is where the business designation came from. I do have a full service chat room which is primarily involved with market profile techniques and I give webinars on various aspects of trading. In the past I have been very successful distributing intra trade recommendations, but I am not doing that now. I have gotten away from trying to call trades in the chat room and it is basically closed. It was too disruptive to my own trading. As I said, I am not soliciting any kind of business currently. The 30 day calling of trades is a challenge. I find that I can do it without undue strain on my trades. And I hope is an opportunity to maybe challenge and help some who are struggling with the ES. Certainly, I don’t see anything else like it. And I will share both the good and bad. Maybe it will be useful, or maybe not. It will certainly be a valuable experience for me. I haven’t had a day like today in a while, so it was a surprise. It was a needed dose of humility. I am still figuring out what to do with thirty days. If you have any ideas, please feel free to share them. Part of trading is becoming aware of your vulnerabilities. I think much of the failures in trading that the futures industry ascribes to human weakness and lack of self discipline is in actuality due to lack of experience and training. Gaining these skills takes time which interferes with the industries goal of turning client capital into commissions and fees. Selling emotional control and self discipline is big money for large numbers of “experts”. Internalizing good trading technique eliminates much of the emotional issues in trading in my own experience. I hope to be able to generate some dialog on this issue. And I do make money with an unusual methodology. I hope to stimulate interest in auction market trading and in throwing out large numbers of indicators clouding up the screen. There is also the issue of “systems.” My experience is that they don’t work over a period of time. Traders who are successful in my experience have developed there own methodology independent of bought systems. I have an undergraduate degree in economics from Vanderbilt and a graduate degree from there in developmental psychology. I also have an MBA from Columbia. Thus I am not a total simpleton, and I have earned the right to provide comic relief if I so choose. The education, by the way, was a serious impediment to becoming a successful trader. I spent a number of years on Wall Street without seeing many of the clients make much money. That colors my outlook now. I am glad you have identified where I am in the bigger picture. I wish you would share that with me as I would be helpful to know. These are some disorganized thoughts that were stimulated by your tread. I will give more thought to a reply. Thanks. Spookwill

4.17 WRAP UP -WHAT NOT TO DO This is primarily directed to those learning to trade as most veteran traders will have “been there and done that.” I got stopped out of 3 trades in a row early in the session. I took a total of 6.75 points in losses which are in a very acceptable range for me. I took the rest of the day off after my three loses this morning. I have a rule that if I have three loses in a row I quit for the day. Thus I avoid “get even” trades, “revenge trades” etc. And I give myself time to back into a place where I can listen to the market objectively. I had allowed myself to get somewhat sleep deprived and I caught up on that today. When I follow my rules I expect to have a profitable day, and I violated a number of them as follows: Rule1. Do not trade unless I am physically and mentally sharp. The vast majorities of my errors occur when I am tired, and today was a good example of that. The subtle error off of being tired is that it sets me up for numerous kinds of thinking errors, and today was a good example of that. Rule 2. I was thinking I was smarter than the market. I ignored market condition and set up 2 legitimate short trades in terms of risk/reward. They were at the level of the previous day’s high, but they ignored the powerful up thrust present in the premarket. Another way of saying this is that I had had three big days in a row and I got cocky. Rule 3. I instituted new trades without analyzing what had gone wrong with the previous trade. In the case, value was migrating steadily higher. Rule 4. Here is where I compounded my errors, I increased the risk in the third trade while decreasing the potential return. By then, my target parameters had lessened. And, of course, I missed a big up move. Rule 5. The big error was in ignoring market condition. I religiously begin every morning’s with a detailed review of market condition. This begins with a top down review of the long term 10 year chart through a 120 minute chart going back 3 months down to a 30 minute chart of the last week. I did none of that today. Market condition was clearly favoring the upside by the time of the US opening. So I hope this is helpful to some of you. I have confidence tomorrow will be a better day. Spookywill

4.14 WRAP UP This is primarily directed to those learning to trade as most veteran traders will have “been there and done that.” I got stopped out of 3 trades in a row early in the session. I took a total of 6.75 points in losses which are in a very acceptable range for me. I took the rest of the day off after my three loses this morning. I have a rule that if I have three loses in a row I quit for the day. Thus I avoid “get even” trades, “revenge trades” etc. And I give myself time to back into a place where I can listen to the market objectively. I had allowed myself to get somewhat sleep deprived and I caught up on that today. When I follow my rules I expect to have a profitable day, and I violated a number of them as follows: Rule1. Do not trade unless I am physically and mentally sharp. The vast majorities of my errors occur when I am tired, and today was a good example of that. The subtle error off of being tired is that it sets me up for numerous kinds of thinking errors, and today was a good example of that. Rule 2. I was thinking I was smarter than the market. I ignored market condition and set up 2 legitimate short trades in terms of risk/reward. They were at the level of the previous day’s high, but they ignored the powerful up thrust present in the premarket. Another way of saying this is that I had had three big days in a row and I got cocky. Rule 3. I instituted new trades without analyzing what had gone wrong with the previous trade. In the case, value was migrating steadily higher. Rule 4. Here is where I compounded my errors, I increased the risk in the third trade while decreasing the potential return. By then, my target parameters had lessened. And, of course, I missed a big up move. Rule 5. The big error was in ignoring market condition. I religiously begin every morning’s with a detailed review of market condition. This begins with a top down review of the long term 10 year chart through a 120 minute chart going back 3 months down to a 30 minute chart of the last week. I did none of that today. Market condition was clearly favoring the upside by the time of the US opening. So I hope this is helpful to some of you. I have confidence tomorrow will be a better day. Spookywill

10.50 You are so right, joshdance, I was impatient, and I sat and watched an overlapping bar in the 30 min. chart at 9:00 that clearly indicated higher prices. We traded down to 1371.25 an I just sat here and watched the reversal go to new highs. No excuse for that. I was tired and half asleep and should not have been trading, and I know better than to trade in such a situation, but I was implusive and I did. Such is life. I took three losses in a row and that says back off. Bad day, Spookywill

10:CST. I obviously got stopped out for the third time at 1377. No excuses, and I had ample time to get out with a small profit or to break even which I didn't take. I will write about my mistakes this evening. We are coming late to the party, and we are missing a pullback and a potential long trade entry while I am writing. Three losses in a row, time to take a looong break. Spookywill

8:56 1365 is our high volume area, and it failed a retest.1365 retest, so one more time, enter shortat 1374.50 or better. Stop 1377. just above today's high.

I got stopped out by 2 ticks (time now is 8:40 CST. My methodology expects to get stopped out frequently, it is the cost of doing business. Credit it to the Tuesday blahs.

8:22 high risk trade, in at 1373.50, stop 1376, targets 1369, ultimately looking for the lows around 1360, then 1350.

8:20 AM CST The NASDAQ is falling, andthe ES has held yesterday's high, so go short at 1373,25 or better, stop 1376.

8:03 I did get stopped out at 1374. I set my stop too low, it needed to be at yesterday's high, 1375.25. The equities look like they will push higher on the USopening. I will look at it before making another trade. Spookywill