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wshahan

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Posts posted by wshahan

  4. Posted

    We had a restest of the morning high which failked by 1 tick (1383 versus 1383.25.) If we don't break out here, widows and orphans should take a 5 point profit. All others take partial profits according to trading plan. I assume most day trading plans would take at least a partial profit if we should get up 10 points (approx. 1387 or so.)

     

    At this juncture, my working assumption is that the 8:30 30 min bar is going to be the day's low extreme. Range symmetery concepts give me a clue that range today will likely exceed 8 points, and an upper expectation would be for a 20 point day, plus or minus 10%. The implication of this is prices go much above current levels, we could get a big up day, i.e.,

    a retracement of yesterday. 1385.75 is the high from yesterday, so exceeding yesterday's high could lead to much higher prices.

     

    The other side of our symmetry thought is that if we are going to have a reversal, this would be be a logical area to expect it.

     

    Breaking yesterday's high, or not, seems to be the key.

     

    1381 is our high volume price, and we continue to trade above there without much price movement.

     

    The issue is now that there is very low volume (lunch time, etc.) We will need an increase in volume to get price movement in either direction.

     

    Spookywill

     

    So we shall see. Only time wil.

  6. Posted

    We have had 2 inside bars in a row on the 30 min bar chart. Ths raises the possibility of a sharp move from the 1381 level without implying a dirctional bias. This is an interesting time of day to expect much in the way of price movement as we are gopmg into the quiet time of day.

     

    Only time will tell.

  11. Posted

    The initial balance trade is a Market Profile concept from James Dalton. His work indicated that 70% of the time, one exreme or the other formed in the first hour of trade. (James Dalton, Mind Over Markets. Tom Alexander of AlexanderGroup has done much work with back testing the data over a long period ane his number is 65% which is what I referenced. It is a very simple concept, and I have found it useful.

  17. Posted · Edited by wshahan
    typo

    Today is another extremely choppy day I entered long at 1379.50. Prices rose to 1383.25 and then plummeted to 1376.50 in 10 minutes. I got stopped out with a 1 tick profit (I move stops to 1 tick profit when I get up 3 points.)

     

    I want to go long, but am waiting to see more of a bottom develop. If the morning low holds, I want to be long close to the current price of 1377.

     

    I am not going to chase a new low at this juncture given the choppy day we are having.

  18. Posted · Edited by wshahan

    1383.50 is the high volume price, so that is the first target. Then 1385.75, yesterday's US high, is next. Finally, this morning's Globex high of 1390 is next.

     

    Downside targets are 1377.50 and the session low of 1374.50.

     

    So far today is like yesterday, a rotational chop fest. The difference is today's range is larger, and hence, theoreically easier to trade.

  19. Posted · Edited by wshahan

    Prices have puled back,. 1385.75 is yesterday's US session high and our pivot point for now.

    Price is at 1379 even which is the high volume price. By long here at 1380 or better, stop 1377.50

     

    I am long 4 contracts at 1379.50.

  21. Posted

    We have now tested both extremes of yesterdy''s range and comback into the upper part of yesterday's day session profile. At this juncture, I am looking for some consolidatin in the middle of yesterday's range and the more upside movement. I am hoping to get a pull back to 1382 or so. I am buying one contract here just to get a toe in the water.

     

    9:53 enter long 1 contract at 1394.

  22. Posted

    We had a false downside breakout and a strong reversal.

     

    The downside breakout reached 1374 50, stalled at the lows for 20 minutes and has run 12 points in the opposite direction. Obviously we scrubbed the short at breakeven, now I am looking for an opportunity to go long.

  24. Posted

    10:52 CST WRAP UP

     

    Trades:

     

    1. Time: 807 AM CST Entry: Short Price:1383.25 Cover 1384, Result: -.75 points

     

    2. 9:55 Entry: short at 1384.25, Covered at 1381, +3.25 points. Posted late

     

    3. 1:35 Entry long 1380.50, Close at 1384. +3.5 points

     

    4.1:59 Enter long at 1384, scrub trade at breakeven, 0 points.

     

    Trades 1, 2,and 3 were legitimate trades for a day like today. The recommendation to go short at 1381 and trade 4. were not good entries because they were not made near range extremes and depended out breakouts which might or might not occu to be profitable.

     

    RANDOM THOUGHTs FROM TODAY’S POSTS:

     

    8:07

    Yesterday’s day session top doubled topped with the April 10th high. Since then, prices in the ES have been working their way back into yesterday’s range and have retraced about half of the day session’s range. Yesterday’s run up was on low volume and could be subject to retracement today. The most likely case after a day like yesterday is for trade consolidation within yesterday’s range.

     

    YES. THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED.

     

    9:28

    The 9:30 bar slightly exceeded the 9:00 one. We have also traded back into the lower part of yesterday’s high volume node and failed there.

     

    An implication of this formation is that the high in the 9:30 bar has a 65% chance of becoming today’s upper range extreme and the 9:00 bar’s low is likely to be taken out.

     

    FREQUENTLY A VALUABLE “HEADS UP”.

    .

     

    9:43

    What we are seeing is no range development, i.e. no conviction, and hence poor opportunities so far in the session.

     

    SAY IT AGAIN

     

    9:43 Caution: Today s liable to be very choppy and very difficult to trade

     

    THE ABOVE QUOTES PRETTY MUCH SAY IT ALL.

     

     

    9:55 Keep in mind the caveat: Today is likely to be a choppy day within yesterday’s range.

     

    ONE MORE TIME

     

     

    12:09 In a day like this with a narrow range and rotational type trading, if you get more than three points, conservative traders can profits.

     

    Following this principle enabled me to almost equal today’s range in profits. A real good result for trading the US session on a range bound day like today.

     

    Another potentially interesting factoid is that when you have such low range, rotational type trading in the early session, there is possibility that you will a sharp move later in the session. Be alert for this.

     

     

    So far we have a balanced day and this frequently produces a good move later in the session. (See Above.)

     

    WE GOT THREE SUCH SHARP MOVES WITH NO BREAKOUTS. BUT THE MOVES EXACERBATED THE TRADING DIFFICULTIES PRESENT TODAY AND INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING “WHIPSAWED”.

     

     

     

     

    12:09

    In a day like this with a narrow range and rotational type trading, if you get more than three points, conservative traders can profits. In today’s case prices traded down from 1385 area to 1379.50 and spent 30 minutes in the 1380 area before rising to 1383.50.

     

    TRADES 2 AND 3 DEMONSTRAT THE UTILITY OF THE CONCEPT.

     

    KEY FOR THE DAY.

     

     

     

    12:09 No range equals a boring day. Boring days sometimes lead to “Frustration Trades”

    or chasing trades. Go fishing for finny fish instead.

     

    MY ATTEMPT AT A PUN, NO COMMENTS NECESSARY. TRADE 4 WAS A FRUSTRATION TRADE AS AN EXAMPLE.

     

     

    FOUR THINGS ABOUT TODAY:

     

    1. Trade Location is key. Only enter near known range extremes, then hope for possible range extension.

     

    2. Moves in a limited range can tend to be sharp and quick.

     

    3 The bigger moves leading to range extension tend to start in the high volume node and can be identified by a volume dry up at an extreme followed by a volume build up around the high volume price. Then a gradual build up of volume above the hvp. Frequently there will be a ledge which acts as a launching point for higher prices. Today we had such ledges both buying and selling which failed. That is highly unusual in my experience, but today was the ultimate non trend, range bound, rotational day.

     

    4 .A day like today is very tiring if you choose to play it. The frequent rotations require constant attention which today I found very fatiguing. This makes one vulnerable to making poor decisions. See “boring” above.

     

    May tomorrow be a more rewarding Day!

     

    Spookywill

  25. Posted

    10:52 CST WRAP UP

     

    Trades:

     

    1. Time: 807 AM CST Entry: Short Price:1383.25 Cover 1384, Result: -.75 points

     

    2. 9:55 Entry: short at 1384.25, Covered at 1381, +3.25 points. Posted late

     

    3. 1:35 Entry long 1380.50, Close at 1384. +3.5 points

     

    4.1:59 Enter long at 1384, scrub trade at breakeven, 0 points.

     

    Trades 1, 2,and 3 were legitimate trades for a day like today. The recommendation to go short at 1381 and trade 4. were not good entries because they were not made near range extremes and depended out breakouts which might or might not occu to be profitable.

     

    RANDOM THOUGHTs FROM TODAY’S POSTS:

     

    8:07

    Yesterday’s day session top doubled topped with the April 10th high. Since then, prices in the ES have been working their way back into yesterday’s range and have retraced about half of the day session’s range. Yesterday’s run up was on low volume and could be subject to retracement today. The most likely case after a day like yesterday is for trade consolidation within yesterday’s range.

     

    YES. THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED.

     

    9:28

    The 9:30 bar slightly exceeded the 9:00 one. We have also traded back into the lower part of yesterday’s high volume node and failed there.

     

    An implication of this formation is that the high in the 9:30 bar has a 65% chance of becoming today’s upper range extreme and the 9:00 bar’s low is likely to be taken out.

     

    FREQUENTLY A VALUABLE “HEADS UP”.

    .

     

    9:43

    What we are seeing is no range development, i.e. no conviction, and hence poor opportunities so far in the session.

     

    SAY IT AGAIN

     

    9:43 Caution: Today s liable to be very choppy and very difficult to trade

     

    THE ABOVE QUOTES PRETTY MUCH SAY IT ALL.

     

     

    9:55 Keep in mind the caveat: Today is likely to be a choppy day within yesterday’s range.

     

    ONE MORE TIME

     

     

    12:09 In a day like this with a narrow range and rotational type trading, if you get more than three points, conservative traders can profits.

     

    Following this principle enabled me to almost equal today’s range in profits. A real good result for trading the US session on a range bound day like today.

     

    Another potentially interesting factoid is that when you have such low range, rotational type trading in the early session, there is possibility that you will a sharp move later in the session. Be alert for this.

     

     

    So far we have a balanced day and this frequently produces a good move later in the session. (See Above.)

     

    WE GOT THREE SUCH SHARP MOVES WITH NO BREAKOUTS. BUT THE MOVES EXACERBATED THE TRADING DIFFICULTIES PRESENT TODAY AND INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING “WHIPSAWED”.

     

     

     

     

    12:09

    In a day like this with a narrow range and rotational type trading, if you get more than three points, conservative traders can profits. In today’s case prices traded down from 1385 area to 1379.50 and spent 30 minutes in the 1380 area before rising to 1383.50.

     

    TRADES 2 AND 3 DEMONSTRAT THE UTILITY OF THE CONCEPT.

     

    KEY FOR THE DAY.

     

     

     

    12:09 No range equals a boring day. Boring days sometimes lead to “Frustration Trades”

    or chasing trades. Go fishing for finny fish instead.

     

    MY ATTEMPT AT A PUN, NO COMMENTS NECESSARY. TRADE 4 WAS A FRUSTRATION TRADE AS AN EXAMPLE.

     

     

    FOUR THINGS ABOUT TODAY:

     

    1. Trade Location is key. Only enter near known range extremes, then hope for possible range extension.

     

    2. Moves in a limited range can tend to be sharp and quick.

     

    3 The bigger moves leading to range extension tend to start in the high volume node and can be identified by a volume dry up at an extreme followed by a volume build up around the high volume price. Then a gradual build up of volume above the hvp. Frequently there will be a ledge which acts as a launching point for higher prices. Today we had such ledges both buying and selling which failed. That is highly unusual in my experience, but today was the ultimate non trend, range bound, rotational day.

     

    4 .A day like today is very tiring if you choose to play it. The frequent rotations require constant attention which today I found very fatiguing. This makes one vulnerable to making poor decisions. See “boring” above.

     

    May tomorrow be a more rewarding Day!

     

    Spookywill

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