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wshahan
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Posts posted by wshahan
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reversed and went long at 1368.75
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entered short at 1370, same trade rationale
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we have small balance area between 1367.50 and 1371on the 5 minute chart. Can set up a legitmate, high reward/risk trade in either direction off that structure.
I shorted the high of the structure, risking effectively one point looking for 1361 for a 9 to 1 return. We got retest of 1367.50 and that level held. I had lowered my stop to + 1 tick and I got stopped there.
The opposite trade was to go long on the retest of 1367.50. Here the risk is also roughly 1 point, but the upside wasn't that attractive to me.
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prices declined to 1367.75, before going to new highs. stopped out at + 1 tick.
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sell1 ES june futures contract at 2370.00. stop 1371.75
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April 10th low 1352.50 is the initial target.
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Reverse short at 1359.25
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If the overnight lows are taken out, I would want to be short. The prudent play is to digest the 8:30 CST opening before making a trade.
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The developing pattern looks too bullish to stay short, so I reversed the trade at 1362.25, stop 1359,25
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It appears likely that wewill have a gap down opening in the day session range (profile). If this gap fills, go long. If it doesn't fill in early trading, go short.
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Reply to MightyMouse:
I have made statements like that in the past. It provides me with a mental hedge. If the trade makes money, I was brilliant for taking it. If it loses, then that was the expected outcome. Either way my mind is hedged from psychological damage of taking a bad trade that I knew I would get stopped out of.
The markets will give a perfectionist slow stomach cancer
I really liked your comment. In particular about the mental stress of having to be right. And having an emotional stake in the outcome of a tradeis very taxing psychologically. It is so nice being able to put a trade on and then relax and see what develops. And, no matter what happens on theis trade, I have confidence I will be highly profitable over time.
In this case, the ES is very difficult to trade, I like trading the NQ and copper better. The 10 year US note is possibly setting up for a good trade today also.
The ES is drifting higher and probably will stop me out, oh well, such is life.
Spookywill
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We had our sharp move, unfortunately in the middle of the night, and now we are in a position to test the lows of our mature balance area to the downside. The over night hight volume point is now 1361.25 and we are trading below that. We have a consolidation/small balance area on the 30 min chart between 1363 and 1369, and I am going with the migration of value to lower prices.
Today is liable to be interesting,
Only time will.
Spookywill
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I just entered short at 1360.75, stop at 1363.
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Reply to gosu:
I got stopped out of my original long trade by 2 ticks, and now prices are attempting to move higher and are back to my entry.
When I say it was an aggrssive trade, it clearly was a risky trade, and I stated " This is an aggressive trade with a only a reasonable probability of success but a great risk reward ratio." So it was a risky trade, but it was successful, it offered a 5 to 1 or more return over the risk, and that is a trade I will take all day.
The single most important element in entering a trade is defining risk. Then the potential reward is approximated. Risk can be defined exactly, Reward may or may not definable, particularly if you are attempting an initiating trade through a high volume point. Tonight the current high volume point 1372.25, and prices are consolidating above there.
Once I have defined my risk, in this case 2 points, and I have a potential reward to risk basis of 3 to 1, I will take the trade. This means that I only have to be right 1 out of 3 trades in order to be profitable over time. That is why I took the trade tonight, it's probability of success was, at best, 50-50, but if it was successful I was looking at a 5 to 1 or better return.
My guess is that the long side is the place to be, but prices are at 1373 and the stop would have to be placed below 1370.50. I want to go long near the high volume node so I will wait for prices drop, or for value to migrate higher.
The importance of having a three to one ratio of risk reward cannot be overemphasized.
I haven't added up last weeks results yet, but I think I only had a few more winners than breakeven plus scratches plus losers. I will add them up tomorrow for an accurate report.
But I had 36.50 points of profit versus about 12 (Have to add up Thursday to get an exact account) of losses. And I misplayed 3 out of 5 days. Yet I netted 24.50 in profits per contract.
The previous Thursday and Friday which started this odyssey. I believe I made over 30 points in the S&P as well as 26 points in the NASDAQ. I will get an exact count tomorrow.
So defining risk and being willing to get stopped out is part of the cost of doing business. I like getting stopped out because it means I can return to looking for good risk to reward trades.
I hope this reply makes sense to you, and is clear. Risk defination is so imporant.
The other critical element of risk defination is that stop placement must be defined by market structure and not by a fixed dollar amount or a fixed percentage of the equity in the account. This means there are many trades that should not be taken by small accounts regardless of the potential in the trade.
Hope this is helpful,
Spookywill.
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My entry was at Friday's day session low and the trade was to see if prices could retrace into Friday's range. If prices don't retrace and fail at Friday's low, which is what looks likely at this moment, then I will reverse and go short..
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I am looking for a break above 1376 and then 1379-1380.
Will have more coments later, but we have a four day consolidation pattern with Friday being an inside day. So we have a mature profile and will likely get a sharp break off this formation in this session or the next. Our downside key reference area is 1351, and our mature balance area is from 1359 to 1390. We currently are in the middle of the balance area, near the high volume node, and will go with whatever volume migration we get. This is pretty straight forward auction market methodology with a Spookywill twist.
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We have a great entry Sunday night at 7. Go long off consolidation on the 30 min chart. Unfortunately it has already risen to 1374.50, the idea area would be 1373-1374.
Long at 1373.50 at 7:05, sorry for the delay, but look for a pull back. stop is 1371.
This is an aggressive trade with a only a reasonable probability of success but a great risk reward ratio.
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Reply to CYP
Did you mean 1375.50 for session range low?
1365.50 is correct for yesterday's US session low. We went below that price in the session too late to make a trade there.
My bad, we went below 1375.50 in today's session. 1365.50 was in reference to yesterday's session in case we had a big breakdown.
Spookywill.
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3:18 PM CST
Reply to CYP
Did you mean 1375.50 for session range low?
1365.50 is correct for yesterday's US session low. We went below that price in the session too late to make a trade there.
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Covered at 1374, at 2:59.
Gone for the day, have a nice weekend.
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We have 6 points in the short and we are on the lows. Prudence says to cloes the shorts at 1375 or better.
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conservative investors take profits in the 1377 area. We made a 1 tick new low and bounced off of it. I think we can possibly make a new low, but givens todays narrow range, 4 points looks good.
That plus 5 points in the morning makes for a good day in the ES.
Especially on a day with a day session range of 8.75 points.
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take profits at 1377
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We are approaching yesterday's day session range low of 1365.50.
If we hold that price, conservative investors take profits.
If we go below 1365.75 and hold, add to short positions.
IF not short, enter shorts upon retesty failure.
Week 3 Trades- Spookywill
in E-mini Futures
Posted
reverse at 1368.75- getting dizzy yet?