lastninja2

thanks for the replies :applaud: at the end of the day i will try and present here, for anyones interest, my journal for the day + 1 min chart with markings of where i traded. I do keep a journal of every trade. In fact I am required by my backers to keep a journal. I also try and review it at the weekends, but frankly, in my own experience there is no tangible pattern between the trades that are working and the trades that are not. e.g. sometimes momentum is down, offers are reloading and bids are getting annihilated... and i go short and i win +3... but sometimes i lose 2. I need more data. Neg: I'll keep in mind the footprint business. It's tricky for me because I am actively encouraged not to give too much attention to the charts. 15 min chart, which i have, is sorta breaking the rules even! P.S. I will shortly have access to Delta or CQG, probably Delta. ***** Hehe... i just cut a short at +1, only to watch it finally break another few ticks. Argh! I said to myself "if my entry price goes bid, I will cut this at 0", but instead using the price action i decided to take +1. If I had stuck to my original rigid plan I would have made +3 or more, because my entry price never actually went bid. But where do i draw the line between rigidly following reasonable rules such as this, and being flexible and playing whatever hand i think the price ladder is dealing me? To put another way, sometimes micromanagement helps, sometimes it hinders. It's a tough job and I guess that's just part of being a trader.

Thanks for the replies Today I think I'll try and ease up on the 1/2 tick winners, and look for 3 or more - if a trade looks to be coming back to me I might take 1 or scratch. As to the downside, I'll try closing at -2. My style is still under construction, but 90% relies on price ladder. I have market profile and a 15 minute chart at the side, but that's just to keep me out of trouble really i.e. not trading against blatant trend, or just being aware of potential stops etc. I find that keeping a running commentary of what is happening on the price ladder - almost as if it is a battle between team red and team blue, helps immerse me in the flow. I see the bids and offers kind of like fortifications - and the trades between them as "attacks" on the other hehe Many times in the day I will notice, for instance, a bid is being attacked but is reloading - and I'll join that bid, get filled, and it will remain bid. I'll say to myself "that remained bid - good entry" : but it's difficult to know WHAT THAT SIGNAL WAS WORTH. Was it worth 1 tick? 2 ticks? Is it even possible to know? And if that bid goes offer, does that invalidate my reason for being in the trade or does the trade deserve a couple of ticks downside room to breathe? Hopefully will gain useful experience from today. thanks again

Oh hai? Does anyone have a strong opinion on this? I have been developing an intense focus on the price ladder, with charts/profile by my side as support tools. I'm scalping FESX, typically taking winners and losers of 1/2/3 ticks, with a few outliers (good and bad) 4/5/6/7. A big problem I am having is, I am micromanaging my trades excessively. If you stare at the price ladder long enough, you can find a million reasons to buy or sell. And so it is, I can pick out a good entry, only to scratch it, or take 1/2 tick winner, and then watch it move another 5 ticks in my favour. My win rate simply is not good enough to offset the inevitable -1/-2 tick losers that mount up during the session, not to mention transaction costs. I am seriously considering telling myself, for the rest of the week, to take either +3 tick winners, -2 tick losers, and scratch only if a +2/3 tick winner comes back to me - so that I give all trades a bit of room to breathe. No doubt I'll take some -3/-4 tick losers along the way, but overall this profit/loss ratio target should work, assuming I can hit something a little better than 50/50 win rate. +3/-2 ratio Pros: It prevents me from micromanaging trades, and helps me to remain relaxed during the session +3/-2 ratio cons: To simply conjur up +3 winner / -2 loser as my target... it seems pretty arbitrary and therefore possibly stupid? Help ?

FESX. Arguably a bit slow to scalp in this manner - but i see numerous opportunities (or so i think) every day, and its a safer market when you are starting out IMO

When I mentioned there were a few experienced guys floating around the forums, I was hoping to get replies exactly as above. Thanks a lot, its helped to clarify my thoughts on the matter. If i recall correclty, Negotiator, you replied to a thread of mine about scalping (market vs limit orders) a while ago, and pointed out the importance of execution speed/costs. Fortunately I am ideally positioned now to trade in such a very short-term manner... really feel as though I'm making progress towards finding my own trading style (never mind developing the relevant skills) - it has taken a very long time and still just one of the first steps.

Hi, I'm aware that there are a few experienced guys lurking on these forums and I'd very much like to hear their thoughts on this: Basically, I am troubled as to how relevant the market "context", as I call it, is to a pure scalper. By pure scalping, I refer to using a mix of limit and market orders to take 1 or 2 ticks from the market. I keep my eyes transfixed on the price ladder for the vast majority of the day; I have no particular bias from one moment to the next, as far as I am concerned - anything can happen at any moment... a long, a short, it makes no matter. If the momentum happens to be to the upside, I'll be watching the offers to see how they behave when someone starts to lift them... if the offer looks to be running scared, I might lift it myself to contribute to that upwards momentum. If my timing is right, that price will go bid immediately, and I will essentially be onside immediately. If I lift the offer and it does not go bid, I am ready to bail on the trade for a 1 tick loss, 2 ticks would be upsetting. 3 and 4 ticks, a real headache. All that said, both the market profile and traditional charts throw up some interesting cues as to what price might do next: sometimes price bounces off the prior day low. Sometimes it blasts right through. Sometimes that level might be the prior day point of control. Whatever. Sometimes price will form short-term support and resistance. Sometimes price will bounce off a market profile buying tail. Sometimes price will run clean through a set of single prints. ... Should a pure scalper care? Am I being too narrow minded in just focussing on the interaction of the inside bid, offer and executed trades, while essentially ignoring whatever price level we happen to be at? So long as I trade in the overall direction of the market, I'm not going to get caught out on a stop run. If anything, I might inadvertently stumble in to a string of stops while simply trying to scalp out 1 tick. Really tired, hope this made some sense. Thanks for any and all input.

Happy to be corrected by someone with good fundamental knowledge. Meantime this is the best I can do for you: You are not quite comparing apples with apples. On the one hand you are quoting the price of an actual tangible 5-Year bond with 0.625% coupon, effective yield 0.77%, price 99-135 (Bloomberg states the coupon is 0.625). On the other hand you are quoting a 5-Year bond futures contract for which the underlying is a notional 5-Year bond yielding 6%... hence your 123 price being well above 99. Extra detail from CBOT: "The invoice price equals the futures settlement price times a conversion factor, plus accrued interest. The conversion factor is the price of the delivered note ($1 par value) to yield 6 percent." Extra detail from CBOT: "The conversion factor represents the price at which $1 face value of the deliverable grade issue, if transacted and settled during the futures contract delivery month, would yield 6 percent." http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/files/CL-100_TFDPBrochureFINAL.pdf page 23 Just as an aside, Bund futures (FGBL) contract specifications from Eurex states that the underlying notional bond has 100,000EUR value and a coupon of 6%. (Coupon, that time, not yield as per USTY, but seems similar concept) I don't think im a million miles wrong with this answer,

Hi, I'd like to start a discussion about the differences in behaviour of equity index futures, and fixed income futures. Primarily I am interested in FESX vs FGBL, but happy to hear thoughts about this topic in a more general sense. *Do you have a preference between the two, and if so, why? *Do you think there is a major difference in how they respond to macroeconomic news - e.g. you must take a more "microeconomic" view on major companies/earnings, if you are speciliazing in a stock index (particularly FESX with only 50 components), whereas more emphasis on Central Banks if you are in FI? *Is either one more suitable for a particular style of trading. I note FESX is more prone to tight ranges, in which you can play shopkeeper for a while - bid, offer, bid, offer... *Do you find one more volatile than the other? I don't mean specifically FESX vs FGBL, but in more general terms, do FI futures tend to be trickier products to trade? *Do you have an opinion on what the future holds for these two "brands" of product? Is the future brighter for FI/Equity Index futures, and if so, why? Or no difference? Just posting the above bullet points in an attempt to shape the discussion, but very welcome any thoughts at all on the matter. At some point I'm going to make a decision on which of the two (FESX/FGBL) to specailize on. I'm still on the fence. Thanks

Hi there Id like to discuss how FGBL reacted to the 10:00am London time data. I'll list them + expectations below... German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) 10.8 vs EXP 19.0 [Really bad... buy bund!] German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) 44.1 vs EXP 39.0 [Quite good... but who cares about this one?] Eurozone GDP SA 0.0% vs EXP -0.2% [better than we thought... hmm, sell bund, buy stocks instead!] As I recall, FGBL price fell on this data, from about 143.25 to 143.05 before it found decent support. I figured the ZEW Economic Sentiment release of 10.8 would take precendent over the others, even the GDP. Seems maybe I was wrong. Does anyone have an opinion on the relative weight of this GDP data vs ZEW Economic Sentiment? Main reason I bring this up is... I've heard German data is prone to being leaked before the official release... maybe FGBL priced in the crappy Economic Sentiment data before 10:00am (Actually, the price did rally quite nicely before hand). That surprises me because I'd expect the Germans to be by-the-book! Alternatively perhaps my assumption that bund should rally on disappointing German economic news is false. Afterall, I suppose it makes the German's ever-so-slightly less credit worthy :/ ? Thanks for feedback

Possibly backtesting, although I don't know anything about that. How about remaining on a trading simulator for several months, multiple trades every day - will that provide a statistically significant sample?

hi I have access to favourable comms, platforms and execution speeds. No conspiracy behind lack of using the word "scalping". To be honest I have a natural dislike for terms like price action, scalping. As someone brought up in another thread, its not always clear what a person means when they use these terms. Taking 7 ticks on a slow mover like FESX over the course of 5 minutes, is to me, well... I pretty much still call it scalping.

hi dont have a great deal of time to write an essay but will do what i can: *I believe it is possible to become consistently profitable from your own bedroom. But difficult. *Retailers generally have 2nd rate technology, slower news wires, and higher transaction costs. It makes trading an uphill struggle but I dont think you can use these as an excuse for failure - perhaps you could adapt your approach somewhat to offset the transaction costs as best you can, and reduce the reliance on split second entry? Also, talking forex / com is a decent squawk, in my opinion. You could probably get a couple of big "gimmie" trades each month. e.g. natural disaster/unexpected central banker spiel. *I think special attention to developing long-term edge, rather than fixation on any individual outcome is important. *I also think it is crucial to get a decent trade simulator - the only acceptable one I know of is via TT. *Develop some basis for entering a trade. Trade it every time you see it on sim. Note down everything you can about what happened. Record the screen with camtasia if you need to and watch replay later. Just some of my thoughts. In the end I gave up on bartending/bedroom trading - just not sustainable, too exhausting. I joined a prop firm instead; better place to figure it out, and also potential for backing a larger account than i could ever fund myself. GL

r/r far less than 1 I believe. The rush being, the longer you are in the market, the greater the risk. I like the idea of a low r/r because I think it aligns itself more closely with human nature ... i.e. "better to snatch those profits from the table before the market steals them away from me"

If anyone here trades in this manner, I'd like to hear your thoughts on this approach, if you are willing to share. Get rid of indicators, market profile etc, maybe just a few simple charts to keep track of the most important levels, but otherwise price ladders all the way. Not watching for reloading bids/offers per se (which lend itself, IMO, to trade lasting >10 seconds). Possibly heavy use of market orders during big momentum moves? I know it can be done, I'm just curious to dig a little deeper in to this approach. Do such traders wait for stop runs, or perhaps regard stop runs as "artificial momentum" so to speak, and best avoided? Realise its a peculiar thread - and I'm not holding my breath. But maybe, just maybe, a couple of guys have experience with this.

Yeah Thanks Neg, good info. Never really thought about the market / turning limit scenario. I keep hearing how difficult it is to scalp in such a manner as a retailer (your guess that I am retail was correct of course). Still on an endless quest to figure out precisely what time-frame/style is most suitable given both my own psychological make-up and technical constraints as a retailer. Still, reckon it might be worth pursuing on simulation, with a view to convincing a prop shop to take me on-board further down the line? Don't have any income but don't have many outgoings either - and even for a retailer there might be a few Armageddon trades when something unexpected occurs somewhere in the world, to keep CL DOM-watching interesting. When in doubt, just be quiet and watch the DOM, is becoming my motto. Not necessarily the most amusing or effective way to spend my day but more screen-time the better, yo?!

Hi Here's what's on my mind: I believe it is probably possible to consistently take a couple of ticks from the market by simultaneously posting limit orders, both bids & offers, around high/growing volume areas (as observed on the market profile). Trouble is, while I find this approach interesting, the trade simulators available to me (both Ninja & MD_Trader) are essentially useless when it comes to order-matching.* Personally I believe it would be a gross error to participate in the market, even with 1 lot, before gaining !!!extensive!!! experience with a trade simulator. This got me thinking. To what extent are limit orders used by successful intra-day scalpers (ROUGHLY defining scalper as someone in the market <60 seconds), versus market orders? I had contact once with a proprietary trader, presumably successful, who claimed to use almost exclusively market orders in a fast market to scalp a couple of ticks here and there. I would feel more comfortable using a trade simulator with faux-market orders, than with limit orders... more inclined to trust the results over a 6-month period. This prop trader said he doesn't use indicators, trend lines, market profile... only price action with the occasional Support/Resistance line to judge areas of potential stop runs. Oh. And a decent news service to stay out of the market for scheduled events. Any discussion on the relative merits of order types, would be very welcome. My own undeveloped thoughts are: 1) Limits are better in range-bound markets. If you see the market breaking out of the range, probably better off with a market order to make sure you don't miss the move 2) Market orders are more appropriate in fast moving markets such as FDAX and CL, rather than slow burners like FESX, FGBS. 3) A scalping strategy that relies on market orders... is better for the trainee because it allows them to use a trade simulator that won't provide unreliable results 4) A scalping strategy that relies on market orders... may not be viable if you suffer retail commissions and second-rate technology. :cinema: * Appendix Fuller explanation of why I don't trust simulators: Ninja simulator, for instance, will only match my simulated order when the entire price level is taken out. It does not attempt to estimate my place in the queue at all. As for MD_Trader simulator (Velocity futures, data via TT), I just don't trust the simulated server. The market profile often is radically different to the reality, and I've even seen the high or low prices differ from reality too!

Graduate Opportunities | Futex negative P.S. Seems every thread re: Futex turns into an argument about their legitimacy. Much appreciated if we could stick to the thread topic on this occasion.

Hi, Does anyone have any direct experience with Futex application process? After the assessment centre there are 2 rounds of interviews - would greatly appreciate feedback from anyone who has been through one or both. Cheers

Hi this is my first post and thanks for sharing your experinces. Hi, no probs. ------------------ I take it that you are based in the Uk like me. I'm based in london ---------------- I just wondered what broker do you use as the American brokers seem to offer lower commissons and there are far more of them. I do not actively trade yet because I am quite sure I would lose money. However, a few months ago I did open a 10,000GBP account with Velocity Futures. My thoughts? *Their capital reserves are less than 2million USD, and I therefore keep an eye on Velocity Futures on google news to make sure they don't look likely to blow up and take half my net worth with them. *I have had some issues with their Trading Technologies data feed (the data feed, where eurex is concerned at least, is not trustworthy in my opinion). Some trading buddies of mine have also reported issues with their data. *They only require 5000USD to open an account, and then they offer X-Trader platform for FREE (although transaction fees are around 1EUR more than otherwise would be, per round turn). However, since I do not actively trade (I only observe), I do not care so much about that. I also recently opened an account with AMP Futures. Why? Because they only require 500USD to open an account, and they provide access to Ninja Trader platform, and also a CQG live data feed. I have not had ANY trouble so far with this data feed, and I am very happy with it. I would demo trade for about 3-6 month before going live. For what my opinion is worth - and it is contrary to the opinions of some others - you should not trade with real money until you are absolutely confident the battle has already been won, so to speak. ---------------- What data, Chart package, dom do you use and how much do they cost per month? I think that you are using x trader which is expensive *As I mentioned above, I do have X-trader on my machine, and I have access to it for FREE via Velocity Futures. But I do not actually use X-trader any longer. I believe most of the pro's use X-trader, but there are benefits to using NinjaTrader (superior charting, for example, and it is more flexible in terms of what add-ons you can bolt on to it). *The data feed I actively use is CQG from AMP Futures (also free, just 500USD to open account). *The DOM I use is actually a specialized piece of software created by Jigsaw Trading (the creator posts periodically on this forum). You can google it if you like, you will see there are some advantages to it, in the way it presents the market information. It is not expensive and since I started watching this DOM, I do not envisage myself returning to the old ones. It was not built to actually execute trades on, however, so where taking the actual trades is concerned you would have to use X-trader, or Ninjatrader dom, whatever. ---------------- How do you hedge your currency risk as you are tading the euro stoxx which is in euros. Is your account now totally in Euros? My account is a mix of GBP, USD and EUR. The total value is around 15,300USD. I do not hedge. It fluctuates up and down, and there's not a great deal I can do about it. I just accept it. ************** Do you still trade this setup? and if so do you manage to trade it for consistent profits? As I mentioned above, I do not actively trade any setup. I just sit and watch the market and very very rarely will I make a bet on my spread betting platform. Why? Because I am confident at this moment in time I would lose what little money I have. One bad trade is equivalent to a days pay at my local bar - to hell with that. ---------------- I would like to understand if it is a waste of time or not to study this. I am just interested in trading this large orders not in other dom/order flow setups. All I can tell you is my own experience: I have witnessed this 'setup', as you call it, occur right before a big market reversal. Sometimes probably it was coincidental... but it happened often enough that there is DEFINITELY a link between the two. I no longer watch for this 'setup' however... I am pursuing other avenues - still a total noob though, don't get me wrong. Why did I give up on this 'setup'? Well, I recall some time ago there was a 1 or 2 week period when I saw this setup occur many times, but the market did not reverse. It just kept powering through the orders. What I failed to grasp - and that is still the case today - is when the setup is valid as a signal and when it is not. I think you need to understand the context of the market to determine when it really does signal a reversal, and when it means nothing. One potential investigative method, which I tried but gave up on due to laziness, is watching the market all day, marking the specific times that you see the setup, and then perhaps painting those occurences on a chart to see if there is some relationship between when the setup worked, and when it did not. Just a thought - maybe a bul#£hit one? ---------------- Today i noticed the same on a couple of italian stocks i follow, I would like to make some videos and post them in a new thread, will maybe start tomorrow. Good luck. I cannot say whether you will succeed if you focus on this setup, or another setup like it. But I'll tell you what I firmly believe (I believed it firmly enough to throw away my old career and become a barman). If you watch the DOM for long enough, and make notes - typed or mental notes, whatever - it will begin to make sense. That's all I've got to say this evening. Good luck, I'll keep my eye on this thread and periodically update.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Frc6kzeZWnE]2011 November 25th Morning Phase 2. OFFERING, TO BUY action at the day-low. - YouTube[/ame] [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kr9JkVtr3qQ]2011 November 25th. Instances of OFFERING, TO BUY. FESX Morning Phase 1. - YouTube[/ame] made these ages ago. i think they describe quite well what you two are discussing: i.e. size orders being there to spook retail traders to doing the "wrong thing".

Thanks for all replies. It seems this thread has gone as it can do, for the time being. I will report back later in the year when I might have some convincing results (be they good or bad) to share.

I could get my old job and learn on the side... if only there were 48 hours in each day instead of 24.

Thanks for taking the time to respond. Appreciate that. 1) I believe spread betting is generally a mugs game/hope I didn't give the impression that I think otherwise. Nevertheless I find it serves as a useful training tool --- if you can profit despite the stupid 2+ point spreads on EURO 50, you can profit on the real market; FESX. 2) I also realise there are many ways to skin a cat, so to speak, and if DOM-watching is one, it is only one of many. 3) It is apparent that there aren't any dedicated DOM-watchers around LT. When the public domain don't give much credence to an idea, I am encouraged to some extent. Having said that, if there are any DOM-watchers lurking, feel free to share your story... I'd very much like to hear it. 4) I'll keep staring at the DOM, and not a damn thing else.

thanks dubz, for those words Actually I've read John Grady's No BS book, maybe ten times... might be due another read this weekend. I fully recommend it to any newbies currently fixated on traditional technical chart analysis. Will keep powering on!

Hi, Just felt like introducing myself to the TL crew Had half a mind to give an in-depth review of my life over the last 6 months or so, but instead I'll just cut right to the chase. Can give more details later if there's interest. July 2011: Quit job with 20k GBP. Tending bars on the side now. August 2011 - Present: Have been watching FESX, primarily DOM, but occasionally mixing it up with some charts and/or an indicator or two. P/L 2011: Lost about 34EUR via TT/Velocity Futures. Clearly don't know what I'm doing. P/L 2012: Lost about 30GBP via CMC Market Spread Betting Platform [started executing £1/point bets on 'EURO50'. At least this way I can get stuck in without blasting through my 20k on the real FESX market] Getting profitable with one lot is proving difficult, as I expected it to be. Nevertheless I'll keep staring at the DOM until it starts to make sense to me. Here's the meat of the thread. A few private videos I made with Camtasia, and uploaded to Youtube. Gives you some insight in to what I'm up to... 2011 November 21st: FESX going long, losing 1 tick. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2whddr01krU]2011 November 21st: FESX going long, losing 1 tick. - YouTube[/ame] 2011 November 22nd: FESX afternoon. When will the market reverse from day-low? [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6lvtQzgj2I]2011 November 22nd: FESX afternoon. When will the market reverse from day-low? - YouTube[/ame] 2011 December 12th. Classic "Offer, to Buy" action. FESX. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfQ_KmMIuSc]2011 December 12th. Classic "Offer, to Buy" action. FESX. - YouTube[/ame] 2011 December 13th. The Blue-Red Shift [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6zOQz7i6Cg]2011 December 13th. The Blue-Red Shift - YouTube[/ame] 2011 November 25th. Instances of OFFERING, TO BUY. FESX Morning Phase 1. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kr9JkVtr3qQ]2011 November 25th. Instances of OFFERING, TO BUY. FESX Morning Phase 1. - YouTube[/ame] FWIW the best two pieces of advice I can give to any aspiring Futures Trader would be to a) Enable trade sounds (bleeps) on MD_Trader if you use it [really get immersed in the action] b) Assuming you aren't scalping for only the next couple of ticks [and frankly, I don't even know what my style is yet, so I can't say if this applies to myself], execute your trades on an equivalent spread betting product, at £1/point, but taking your entry and exit queues from the 'real' market, e.g. FESX as displayed on MD_Trader. Provokes an emotional response, but doesn't really hurt you if it goes wrong. Always nice to hear words of encouragement from experienced guys who have walked a similar path [...to riches]......