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Obsidian

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by Obsidian

  1. As we know we can't use the same indicator (or variables) for different instruments, markets because they usually show different behavior. I use candlesticks because I think it summarizes the fight between the buyers and sellers. However I don't think 5-min chart is enough for this purpose. Candlestick formations can tell you what will come next but where they occur is important as well... There are lots of patterns and thousands of instruments. Besides some formations work better than others. Of course the time frame used in those researches would affect the results as well. I was going to link the same site
  2. Either you will use different strategies according to market situation or you will use a strategy which adapts itself (or you will adapt yourself) to changing market conditions... if you don't ask and find the answers, you can't fix things or you can't prepare yourself to the future... That is why majority of beginners lose imvho...
  3. As other tools, candlesticks alone are not the only way to trade. Besides how you use it, when you use it and why you use it would affect its success rate.
  4. 10 Leading Causes of Travel Deaths #5= Falling Coconuts !
  5. EUR/USD: European Central Bank's cash injection passed without a surprise and Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony failed to signal new measures to stimulate the US economy. We saw a classic “buy the rumor sell the fact” action from big players. The pair retraced back to previous resistance level at 1.3310 and testing as support now. If this level holds, the pair would try to move higher and test 1.3400 resistance. 1.3480 is the next and strong resistance. If the bears continue the push downward and manage to break 1.3310, look for support at 1.3220 and 1.3135. GBP/USD: The cable seems less affected by the troubles within the EU but 1.5990-1.6000 zone is an important zone to overcome in order for pair to continue its rise. The pair is slightly bullish by the time of writing and I will be watching 1.5950 and 1.5880 levels before making any decisions. If GBP/USD goes below 1.5880, we will probably visit 1.5810. Next support level is at 1.5765. USD/CHF: USD/CHF bounced from 0.8930 and now it is pulling back to the first resistance level at 0.9100. I don’t think it will be easy for the bulls to pass this level. However, USD/CHF is slightly manipulated because of the Swiss National Bank and its 1.20 floor on EUR/CHF. If the pair can move above 0.9100, the next strong resistance is located at 0.9250. To the downside, the bears will indeed need to break 0.8930 with 0.8765 being the next key support level. USD/CAD: USD/CAD will remain bearish and selling pressure will increase if it can’t move above 0.9900 level. The next support level is located at 0.9790. I am bearish until the pair trades above 1.0053 level.
  6. I would also advise having 2 operating systems on separate hard disks
  7. I would say that things depend on your system but first of all review your strategy and find what is going wrong and causing your loses.
  8. mankind is very creative
  9. You can watch it at: http://www.c-span.org/Live-Video/C-SPAN3/
  10. What is moving the market: EUR weakened after the European Central Bank allotted €529.5 billion ($711 billion) in its second tranche of three-year loans to the region’s banks.
  11. Obsidian

    AudUSd

    if AUD/USD breaks 1.08-1.06 range today, finally it will start moving towards 1.0985 and 1.1028
  12. If you know nothing about trading, it may be a good idea to follow people with profitable strategies but the problem is how would a beginner choose the right trader to follow...
  13. EUR/USD: The EUR/USD continued its bullish move, supported by expectations for more cheap loans to be offered by the ECB. The German parliament approved the second Greek bailout package, this was another element fueling the euro. This event is priced in but it is better to wait and see the result first. Next, markets’ attention will turn to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony at 15:00 GMT. If the pair can break and hold above 1.3486, next targets will be 1.3586 and 13630. However, If it fails and falls below 1.3400 look for support at 1.3350 1.3241. GBP/USD: After the pair produced a hammer candle last month, this month range is tighter. I think the market will remain bullish and move towards 1.5975 as long as we are above 1.5765-1.5800 zone. If the pair can penetrate 1.5975, I will be looking for 1.6050 and 1.6140. To the downside, support levels are at 1.5880 and 1.5765. USD/JPY It seems that USDJPY has established itself above the psychological and technical 80.00 line and BoJ is going to try to defend the 80 level. Daily resistance levels are located at 81.00 and 81.48. If the pair goes lower, I expect strong support 80.00 and 79.50 levels. USD/CHF The pair is sitting on 0.8930 support and buying strength is still quite weak. Therefore, the pair will remain bearish and target 0.8765 until we get a break above the resistance zone of 0.9250. If price goes higher, look for resistance at 0.9100.
  14. Maybe you can try having sub-accounts with different currencies and transfer your funds from one to another anytime you want
  15. Many of us keep staring at the screen(s) for hours, it is important to free our mind, live healthy and enjoy the world outside:cool:
  16. I save my indicators&templates on a usb memory and a portable hd thank god we are not using floppy drive anymore:rofl:
  17. Something is going on, guess we will see Greece leaving the eurozone "willingly" soon... 2 related articles Greece Running Out of Alternatives: Krugman - Bloomberg 'Greater Chances Outside': German Minister Calls for Greek Euro Exit - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
  18. S&P: Greece Ratings Lowered To 'SD’ (Selective Default) Standard and Poor's has classified Greek debt as in "selective default" following the deal it made with creditors to reduce its debts. S&P says the terms of that deal triggered the latest downgrade. Greek debt was already had a "junk" grade rating from the agency. Banks and other financial firms agreed to swap Greek debt for new bonds that were worth much less. Including interest payments, banks took losses of more than 70%. S&P said that when the debt exchange is complete it will assess Greece again and possibly raise the rating to CCC. The agency Fitch made a similar move last week. The Greek government said the move was expected and would not hurt the banking industry. "This rating does not have any impact on the Greek banking system since any likely effect on liquidity has already been dealt with by the Bank of Greece," the finance ministry said in a statement. Source: BBC
  19. EUR/USD: Considering the fact that the crisis in Europe is still far from ending, we see that EUR/USD has been very resilient over the last weeks. Yesterday I was expecting a pullback towards to the previous resistance levels to test them as new support levels. Not surprisingly the pair found support around 1.3360/50 zone and rising again in the Asian session. If the bulls can push the pair above 1.3450 level, we are going to test 1.3486 and maybe 1.3540. To the downside there will be support at 1.3350 and 1.3280. GBP/USD: If the pair can pass 1.5840 then I will be looking for 1.5930/45 and 1.6000 next. However a break below 1.5800 level can cause the pair slip back to 1.5740 and 1.5660 levels. I will be waiting for a breakout to jump in. USD/JPY: USD/JPY became the most interesting pair lately. It seems that the pair is finally out of its consolidation period. For now it looks like the trend has changed and the Bank of Japan may do the necessary things to flood the market with yen. I am currently bullish on this pair with a target of 83.50, as long as we don’t go below 79.50. USD/CAD: Since the US is the largest buyer of products from Canada, recent good news from the US economy keeps USD/CAD below the parity. Climbing oil price is of course another important element. I think we will see that USD/CAD hitting 0.9900 again soon. A daily close above 1.0050 would change the mid-term scenario though.
  20. Oanda since 2003 very low spreads fast execution being able to trade in units instead of lots
  21. there are so many fake comments on the internet. you don't know which comment is real which one is in deed written by the vendor...so be very careful
  22. there are lots of sources if you are serious about learning. most people don't think that learning how to trade and being a successful trader takes at least a couple of years. some people just want to do everything in a very short time...
  23. Obsidian

    CoT Charts

    IMM positioning data for the week ending Feb 21 built on the positions that started to emerge over the past two weeks. In the aggregate, the market remains net long USD's, but these were scaled back a bit from the prior week. But this result is not surprising given the growing optimism that a package for Greece will be forthcoming, thereby taking some of the pressure off. Specific changes in spec positions simply built on recent trades, and notably, there was yet another build in net long CAD positions, and another reduction in net long JPY positions. Net short EUR positions were trimmed by 6.4K to 142K following an expansion in the prior week. This likely reflects the optimism that Greece was able to secure a second bailout package. The fact that the EUR has been rallying steadily since the announcement of the package suggests that spec positioning may continue to show a reduction in short EUR p ositions. There was a significant reduction in net long JPY contracts which follows a recent trend. And for the week of Feb 21, they were reduced by 12.2K contracts to 17.2k. This reflects the move lower in JPY as the spec market seems to be taking the unwind in JPY quite seriously given lingering threats that the BoJ was concerned about USD/JPY levels. There was a rather sizeable reduction in net short GBP positions, this time by 9.2K to 31.3K contracts. This follows the prior two weeks were shorts were built up. This is related to the move in EUR and reflects the overall sense that immediate risks for the euro zone have been pushed back. There was an expansion of net short CHF positions by 3.8K to 19.8K as the market continues to increase its shorts as the CHF continues to lose its safe have status to the USD. Given the moves in the commodity currencies over the past few weeks, there is now a consolidation of those positions. Specifically, there was yet another addition to net long CAD positions of 4.5K to 14.1K positions. This reflects CAD's continued, but elusive pursuit of parity. Nevertheless, the spec market continues to believe in the trade. NZD long positions were very modestly added to yield 24.2K contracts. Lastly, AUD positioning showed that net longs were very modestly added to in the week and are now at 74.7K from 73.4K contracts in the prior week. AUD remains a play that reflects risk sentiment and as such has seen some moderation in overall appetite over the previous weeks.
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