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Obsidian

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by Obsidian

  1. Obsidian

    Eur/chf

    EUR/CHF is back to critical levels. Will SNB defend the 1.20 floor level? I am in again at 1.2034, stop 1.1970
  2. Obsidian

    AudUSd

    Guess there are too many oil speculators in the US congress :rofl: Meanwhile if we spend the day below 1.0370, 1.03 is coming soon...
  3. Summary of open orders and positions:
  4. we may see some consolidation between 1707 and 1610 in April. if it goes below 1.600, 1562 would be the next stop...imvho
  5. seems like the trading room collapsed...
  6. haha, thank god she is not into jewelry that much. hmm I guess it is time to look for a new wife who actually owns a jewelry shop
  7. with that amount, you can buy dozens in thai :rofl:
  8. Obsidian

    AudUSd

    Chinese Manufacturing PMI 53.1 (50.9 forecasted, 51.0 previous) HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 48.3 (48.1 previous) lets see how market will react...
  9. Obsidian

    CoT Charts

    Speculative investors trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange more than doubled their net wagers against the yen as of March 27, government data showed Friday. They held a net $10.2 billion in bets against the yen, or 67,622 contracts, marking the largest short position in the yen since July 2007, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly report on the commitments of traders. The total number of contracts outstanding for major currencies dropped by 11% as investors pulled back from speculative bets. The CME speculators trade a small part of worldwide currency volume, but their positions are considered representative of hedge funds' movements in the markets. "Usually you'd expect that dollar-yen should be moving in tandem, but we haven't seen it at all," said Charles St-Arnaud, vice president, foreign exchange research at Nomura Securities International in New York. Traders piled into bets that the dollar will rise against other currencies, wagering a net $19.3 billion, 70% more than the previous week. For the euro, investors held a net $14.8 billion in bets that the common currency will decline in value against the dollar. That represented 89,129 net contracts, up 8% from the week before. "All the news from Spain is not really the most positive, so some are already beginning to position themselves," St-Arnaud said. Traders held a net $2.1 billion in wagers against the Swiss franc, up 36% from the previous week, with 1596 contracts. Speculators continue to gamble that the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars will rise against the dollar. They placed 32% more net bets in favor of the Australian dollar this week, but cut their New Zealand bets by 5% and their Canadian wagers by 44%. The market held a net $1.1 billion wager against the British pound, down 30% from the week before. The CFTC's weekly report shows speculative investors' positions in major currencies held against the dollar. It viewed the markets as of Tuesday.
  10. Obsidian

    CoT Charts

    Weekly charts: EUR-GBP-CHF-CAD-JPY-Gold-Silver
  11. I do not think so... platinum vs gold and platinum vs silver charts: (charts are a couple of months old but you can get the idea)
  12. Obsidian

    CoT Charts

    Hi nkune, all the data you need is here: Commitments of Traders - CFTC you can download historical data in excel format
  13. Better than sleeping in front of the screen anyway, this is last chart for today...hope everyone has a great weekend...
  14. Any market, be it real estate market or forex market, is all about transferring money from the masses to a few lucky ones in the long run. In most real property speculation cases, the masses make money ,a lot of money, but the money stays as paper profit and evaporate before they realize their paper profit into real hard cash. In most forex speculation cases, the masses barely survive a few years thanks to lack of knowledge of the market and the deadly leverage. But both types of speculators all serve their useful purposes in investment food chain contributing their hard earned money to the market in exchange for a dream. For any prospective traders, hope this is not in anyway a discouragement. Trading is a hard mind game and not everyone is suitable to be engaged in such a hard game. Most have neither frame of mind nor mental fortitude to survive in this hard game. Mastering TAs or numbers or options business are at best a first tentative step into the right direction with no guarantee to any success. Training a right frame of mind is the most difficult but absolutely necessary part for success and most are simply not ready to go through that hard stage of the learning process because it is a very painful process. Trading is essentially about pain-taking-process in the end although most do not realize it. The process of overcoming fear, greed and mastering tranquility of mind in this hard school of speculation. Every trader should find his/her method/system which suits his/her own situation and personality. And that system/method must be the one that has proven to be able to make some money through trials. So, if AAA, the medium-term trader, revealed his money making method of last three decades, it may not have the same effect for BBB and CCC, the day traders, and vice versa. Agree that most fail for lack of system/method and/or lack of discipline to follow through. Trading success is all about making as much as one can when one is right and losing as little as possible when one is wrong. That is the essence of this business. So, any theory or system which looks after the above is a good one. System is a weapon of a soldier in this market. You must have one as soon as possible. Otherwise, it will be like fighting well-armed Forex robbers with a handbag. Best one is a self-made one because you can never feel comfy in borrowed shoes although borrowing good ideas from others is a good idea. One cannot make a dime unless follow the herd or trend most of the time. It is just that one has to be cautious when overbought/oversold region is approaching and know how to turn at inflection point for the opposite trend. Following herd needs average intelligence and courage but identifying inflection points and taking a necessary action needs not only intelligence but also a lot of courage. Again, fortune favors the brave. Money management is where most traders go wrong in almost all cases leaving only a few as the winner at the end of the day. Money management and discipline of mind is what makes or brakes a trader at the end of the day, not the elementary entry and exit method. End of part 2
  15. Obsidian

    Intervention

    longing (again) right after I click submit reply button
  16. So true... sl is one of the sharp tools to protect you. but if you don't know how to use it or when to use it, you will probably end up hurting yourself...
  17. Summary of open orders and positions:
  18. You are absolutely right in deed :rofl: For me it was eur/gbp and usd/cad. Anyway I was referring to manual trading and the current time frame For now usd/cad is trapped in a tight range and aud is falling like a rock (slowdown in china, rate cut possibility and being overbought not only against usd but eur and cad as well).
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