Obsidian

u.s. retail sales.....

I was going to post this earlier but totally forgot while busy with other stuff :crap:

I don't think it is that easy...they check if you know how to vaporize 1billion from customer funds :rofl:

this may be the last bounce to 1.3100...until it closes above 1.3206, sell on rallies today had a chance to short gbp/aud earlier. now closed 1/2 for 35pips, moved s/l to b/e and tp to 1.5190 for the rest... guess this will be an interesting week...

Summary of open orders and positions:

AUD had stopped right above t/l, lets see what will happen today

Any market, be it real estate market or forex market, is all about transferring money from the masses to a few lucky ones in the long run. In most real property speculation cases, the masses make money ,a lot of money, but the money stays as paper profit and evaporate before they realize their paper profit into real hard cash. In most forex speculation cases, the masses barely survive a few years thanks to lack of knowledge of the market and the deadly leverage. But both types of speculators all serve their useful purposes in investment food chain contributing their hard earned money to the market in exchange for a dream. For any prospective traders, hope this is not in anyway a discouragement. Trading is a hard mind game and not everyone is suitable to be engaged in such a hard game. Most have neither frame of mind nor mental fortitude to survive in this hard game. Mastering TAs or numbers or options business are at best a first tentative step into the right direction with no guarantee to any success. Training a right frame of mind is the most difficult but absolutely necessary part for success and most are simply not ready to go through that hard stage of the learning process because it is a very painful process. Trading is essentially about pain-taking-process in the end although most do not realize it. The process of overcoming fear, greed and mastering tranquility of mind in this hard school of speculation. Fwiw. Every trader should find his/her method/system which suits his/her own situation and personality. And that system/method must be the one that has proven to be able to make some money through trials. So, if Tom, the medium-term trader, revealed his money making method of last three decades, it may not have the same effect for Dick and Harry, the day traders, and vice versa. Agree that most fail for lack of system/method and/or lack of discipline to follow through. Trading success is all about making as much as one can when one is right and losing as little as possible when one is wrong. That is the essence of this business. So, any theory or system which looks after the above is a good one. System is a weapon of a soldier in this market. You must have one as soon as possible. Otherwise, it will be like fighting well-armed Forex robbers with a handbag. Best one is a self-made one because you can never feel comfy in borrowed shoes although borrowing good ideas from others is a good idea. Good luck. One cannot make a dime unless follow the herd or trend most of the time. It is just that one has to be cautious when overbought/oversold region is approaching and know how to turn at inflection point for the opposite trend. Following herd needs average intelligence and courage but identifying inflection points and taking a necessary action needs not only intelligence but also a lot of courage. Again, fortune favors the brave. Money management is where most traders go wrong in almost all cases leaving only a few as the winner at the end of the day. Money management and discipline of mind is what makes or brakes a trader at the end of the day, not the elementary entry and exit method. Forex/Currency Trading: It is a sentiment game w/ a crowd mentality where even the best players w/ the best forecasts are tricked out of good positions by the magic of price action.

looks like we need some cheerleaders to attract more voters

Hello and and welcome to the community

I would like to see outcome of this idea, could you post some screenshots please?

This may ease concerns till end of May... Iran Nuclear Talks Resume May 23 in Baghdad, Ashton Says The first international talks with Iran on its nuclear program in 15 months produced a promise to reconvene in May amid calls for urgent diplomacy to avert military strikes. The so-called P5+1 group of five permanent United Nations Security Council members -- the U.S., Britain, China, France, and Russia -- plus Germany will meet Iranian delegates in Baghdad on May 23 following “constructive” talks yesterday in Istanbul, according to Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief. Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program have escalated since the parties’ last gathering in Turkey in January 2011, with Israel and the U.S. saying they may attack the Islamic republic to prevent it from developing atomic weapons. That prospect and economic sanctions aimed at blocking Iran’s oil exports helped drive Brent crude prices 13 percent higher this year alone. While yesterday’s talks didn’t yield any new promises, the P5+1 group hailed Iran’s willingness to engage in discussions on its nuclear program. “We want now to move to a sustained process of serious dialogue, where we can take urgent practical steps to build confidence and lead on to compliance by Iran with all its international obligations,” Ashton told reporters after the talks. “In our efforts to do so, we will be guided by the principle of the step-by-step approach and reciprocity.” Iran’s nuclear envoy, Saeed Jalili, said “we witnessed progress” in yesterday’s talks. “We said before that pressure doesn’t work, we believe that cooperation is fruitful,” Jalili said. “Today we experienced that.” Economic Sanctions An EU embargo on Iranian oil is scheduled to go into effect on July 1, following U.S. restrictions already in place. “One of the issues that should be taken into consideration, and is the request of the Iranian people, is the removal of sanctions,” Jalili said, speaking to reporters through a translator. A lifting of sanctions won’t be on the agenda until there are concrete moves to assure the international community about the intent of Iran’s nuclear program, a senior U.S. official said after yesterday’s talks. The meeting wasn’t about what may or may not happen militarily, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions were private. Rejecting the contention of the U.S. and its allies that Iran may be developing the capability for nuclear weapons, Jalili spoke under a banner with images of assassinated Iranian atomic scientists that read, “Nuclear energy for all, nuclear weapons for none.” Fordo Site Iran is enriching uranium to the 20 percent level at an underground facility at Fordo, near Qom. Civilian nuclear power plants require 5 percent low-enriched uranium. Iran says it is developing nuclear technology solely to generate power and for medical purposes. Further stockpiling of 20 percent enriched uranium “poses a growing threat” that some will be diverted for weapons use, the Institute for Science and International Security, a research group in Washington, said in an April 10 report. President Barack Obama said a month ago that although the window for diplomacy is “shrinking,” there is “still time and space” for diplomacy and sanctions before resorting to military action to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Yesterday’s scheduling of a May meeting is “a positive step forward,” Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser at the White House, told reporters in Cartagena, Colombia, where Obama was participating in a summit of Latin American leaders. “Now what we’re doing is building out the agenda going forward.” Drafting Proposals Iranian and P5+1 deputies will work on drafting a framework for proposals to be taken up at the Baghdad gathering, Ashton said. That will enable the negotiators to take “concrete steps” in resolving concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, she said. Both sides reiterated that while Iran has a right to civilian nuclear technology, it needs to meet its obligations as a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The treaty will be a “key basis” of the parties’ engagement going forward, Ashton and Jalili said. “We are seeing a more serious approach now because international pressure on Iran is at an all-time high and both sides are coming to the talks with more pragmatic proposals,” Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington, said yesterday in an e-mail. “The further high-level and technical talks announced today are the logical next step to reach agreement on specific, concrete steps that can help prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.”

Speculators Pile Up Largest Net Dollar Long Position Since June 2010 - CFTC Traders held a net $22.6 billion in bets that the dollar will appreciate, a gain of 31% in net wagers over the previous week and the largest such position since June 2010, government data showed Friday. Speculators on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, although a minor part of global currency traders, are frequently considered to trade the way hedge funds do, giving their positions greater import. For the euro, traders held $16.6 billion in net bets that the common currency will fall. That represented 101,364 net contracts, up 26% over the week before, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly report on the commitments of traders. Speculators trading the yen held a net $10.2 billion in bets that the currency will decline, 4% more than the previous week. That position stood at a net 66,084 contracts, marking the largest short position in the yen since July 2007. The Swiss franc had net wagers against it worth $1.3 billion, down 33% from the previous week. That represented 9,919 contracts. Investors held a net $1.3 billion in bets against the U.K. pound. That was more than double the previous week's negative gambles on sterling. Traders continue to hold net wagers that the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars will all appreciated, with the largest of these positions, the Australian, standing at net $4 billion, down 21% from the prior week. The CFTC's weekly report shows speculative investors' positions in major currencies held against the dollar. It viewed the markets as of Tuesday.

Here they are, 2 year & 10 year treasury notes:

Weekly charts: EUR-GBP-CHF-CAD-JPY-Gold-Silver

yea you don't need a chart to lose money. it is like playing chess without a board...besides it does not give any benefit other than satisfying ego...imvho

is that still the same?

I would encourage my son to trade forex but not that early.

GBP/AUD 4H chart...looks like next stop is 1.5172

As they say "The news doesn't make the market, rather the market makes the news". imo when we hear-read something new, it is better to see how market is reacting first.

As these patterns occur 30m time frame it is very hard to see the exact price movements. I focus on gbp/usd since 2005 and I see these type of price movements happen often. Trades I took based on these have around %80 accuracy with 30-50pips profit. If happens after failing at a strong resistance, supported with hammer formation, I adjust my profit targets a bit... Every pair has a different behavior and I noticed the pattern I posted happens only on gbp/usd...MA is only helping to identify the pattern. so MA is a part of the system but the system is not based on MA As MM said price is a result of traders' actions. Traders do not change their behavior My long term trades are based on Ichimoku. I will post it next time. ps 2+2= 3 if I am buying, 5 if I am selling :rofl:

seems that eur/usd will be back to 1.3030.. hmm just noticed that today is 13 and Friday :rofl:

it is important to follow the news when there is an unexpected, high volatility but we also have to be isolated from extra distraction...

it is like learning how to drive in a F1 racing car...learn how to drive before you try to break speed limits...

Hi BlueHorseshoe, In fact ema is just a reference point. Maybe someone can find a math formula, ratio etc to reveal the secret behind those price behaviors, not me I am afraid. I use it as re-entry point as well:

just want to add something... remember that data may be different from one to another...if you are going to automate a strategy and trade live, use your broker's data feed to test it...