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BlueHorseshoe
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Everything posted by BlueHorseshoe
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Hi Sunshinejim, It's great to have seasoned traders with experience on the floor of an exchange contibuting here - I hope you'll find the time to contribute to TL often. Given your thoughts above, and the fact that you continue to trade, where do you feel that the possible advantage now lies for retail traders without vast amounts of capital and Aurora rackspace? Regards, BlueHorseshoe -
"I thought that he thought that I thought that fascism was good, which I don't, so he shouldn't, then I wouldn't . . ." Remind me never to get mixed up in your personal life! BlueHorseshoe
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SIUYA basically had the right idea, but rather than 'piggybacking' you want to be 'front-running'. The basic process for most sequences is to take the middle choice, reverse it, and move it to the front. It's known as the 'Penney Ante', and I'm going to be lazy and let the web explain: Penney's game - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://bact.mathcircles.org/files/Summer2010/PenneyAnte.pdf Given that the whole thing is essentially about probabality and binary sequences, then I wonder whether there could be some application for trading binary outcomes? BlueHorseshoe
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For anyone who isn't already aware of this site: NANEX - The Rise of the HFT Machines BlueHorseshoe
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I thought you had agreed to reveal the answer three days ago? UNCLE. BlueHorseshoe
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I don't normally contribute to threads like this because I am no economist but . . . We haven't just come out of a World War, have we, so how might the two scenarios be even remotely comparable? BlueHorseshoe
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I haven't thought about this too carefully but . . . You have absolutely no control over the second part of the process (which bowl), so the best probability would be 50/50, in which case the best division would be to put all the white marbles into one bowl and all the black marbles into another? BlueHorseshoe
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
BlueHorseshoe replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Hi Angela, Welcome to TL! BlueHorseshoe -
The probability of any particular sequence of three is 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.125. But the puzzle is to guess which sequence is more likely to occur before mine (not what the next three flips will be). In other words, we might have to continue flipping for a while before either sequence comes up and one of us can be declared winner. BlueHorseshoe
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Welcome to TL! Are your strategies automated in EL? Do you find the Spyders liquid enough for algo trading in lower timeframes? Do you have any difficulties shorting these instruments? Are you trading outright directional moves or pairs etc? BlueHorseshoe
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Coin-flipping analogies are commonly used in explanations of probability in trading literature, so here's a heads or tails puzzle . . . I'm flipping a coin. It's evenly weighted, giving a 50/50 probability of heads or tails with each toss. We will each predict a sequence of three flips, and the person whose sequence occurs first is the winner. I predict: Heads, Tails, Tails. To maximise your chances of winning, what sequence should you predict and why? BlueHorseshoe
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Hi Brownsfan, If you haven't done so already, have a read at some articles about Paul Rotter: The Flipper - Traders Daily The Flipper - HFT Review The Flipper - Article He traded bonds, not forex, and I'm not sure whether he continues to prosper . . . Hope that helps, BlueHorseshoe
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The German. Yellow, Norwegian, Water, dunhill, cats Blue, Dane, tea, blends, horse Red, Brit, milk, Pall Mall, birds, Green, german, coffee, prince, fish White, swede, beer, bluemasters, dogs. BlueHorseshoe
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I trust that this thread isn't distracting anyone from anything more important that they should be doing? Patuca - I do hope you realise that unless somebody solves your riddle you will be responsible for setting the next one? BlueHorseshoe
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The bridge runs from East to West, and he takes a full 24 hours to cross it, by which time the earth will have completed a full revolution so that he will also have travelled around it. ??? BlueHorseshoe
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Yes, the flip-side to complaining about aberrant models is probably to acknowledge that to make money one only needs a model that works more often than not (or rather, loses less when it's wrong than it makes when it's right). Being pedantic but . . . As you have pointed out yourself in other threads, the ways in which many participants make money has nothing to do with whether they're buying or selling the particular market you trade right now. StatArb, actual arbitrage, hedging, re-balancing, gaming another participant, or just executing a very large order for a rich but naive heir - there are countless reasons to go to the club, even if you don't like crowds or dancing . . . I find it interesting (I've been reading Taleb's 'The Black Swan' recently) that even those who acknowledge randomness don't really know how to profit from it in addition to profiting the rest of the time. Probably it just isn't possible. BlueHorseshoe
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Day Trading the E-mini Futures with Predictor
BlueHorseshoe replied to MadMarketScientist's topic in Commercial Content
Hi Predictor, If you feel that what you're doing has value and you're getting selective feedback to support it, then why not just completely ignore anything that isn't directly relevant and continue for anyone who might be interested? Otherwise, if you start responding to every detractor, you risk falling into the "Roger Felton Trap" . . . Hope that helps, BlueHorseshoe -
I wish your wife a speedy recovery. BlueHorseshoe
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When the solution was originally published, if I remember correctly, lots of maths PhDs wrote in to the newspaper to complain. I wonder what percentage of them worked at LTCM at the time? BlueHorseshoe
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The issue that I have with this analogy is that several of the inputs are more static than they would be in most market scenarios. The club's capacity remains constant from week to week, as does the population of potential attendees (or "clubgoers", as I believe they're called ). Traded price can be viewed as a noisy measurement of an asset's true underlying value, but this value is not constant and changes over time according to a non-linear process. My guess is that rather than trying to incorporate fat tail events - sudden non-stochastic price jumps - into the model, it would be better to use them as a cue to reset the model. The model, after all, is not built to measure them. Maybe this explains why so many HFTs supposedly step aside when volatility rises? BlueHorseshoe
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If markets were truly random then they would be much easier to trade. JUMP DIFFUSION BlueHorseshoe
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If the man is on board a train, and the track is arranged in a figure of eight so that it crosses itself using the bridge, then the trajectory of the man's journey would be such that any complete loop of the track would take him both over and around the bridge. But that's not literally at the exact same time, so it can't be correct, right? BlueHorseshoe
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Why Don't More People Learn to Trade?
BlueHorseshoe replied to edgararakelyan's topic in General Trading
Because it's difficult and takes a lot of commitment, and because (retail) traders have to take responsibility for their own learning process and most people are far too used to having someone else control this for them (usually an employer). BlueHorseshoe -
Auto correlation can be especially useful when applied to things which do move in obvious cycles (this is not a comment on the random or non-randmness of price) such as volatility. Consider, if volatility is rising, and volatility is highly auto-correlated, then a stop-loss based on current volatility is not likely to be sufficiently large. When volatility is falling there would be a good argument for tightening a stop-loss where the auto-correlation was high. Also, consider the applications of high (or low) coefficients of auto-correlation for binary strategies. BlueHorseshoe
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TREND PREDICT ( Trade Station )
BlueHorseshoe replied to mohsinqureshii's topic in Trading Indicators
Hello, An interesting post, thanks! I have seen Bryant use the inbuilt optimisation capacities of TS in a similar way before in an article on Neural Nets. The spreadsheet sorting aspect of the process can also be conducted within tradestation using arrays. Cheers, BlueHorseshoe