roztom

Thanks..as long as key areas can be identified... Appreciate your help and this thread... Regards, Tom

Thanks for posting the chart... There is "Logic" to MP. BTW: there were at least 3 trades in there on rotations.. I was working on my taxes today while trading so I positioned which is typically not what I do.. The parameters would be the same it just is I would have traded around my positon. I hope everyone who has wondered about MP found my posts today helpful.. let me know. Regards, Tom

Trade Update: 2:19 cst 2:15 cst.. I took my initial target of 1310.00 from 1305.50 this morning. Made new high 1310.50..and Delta dropped I still have 1311.00 + ish target but stomach lining... MP: Sure... works for me.. :missy: MP: Great tool if it fits for you..It is in how you integrate it...and sorting out all the nonsense that doesn't matter to use the pieces that add value to your plan... I did all these posts today win/lose or draw to show how a profile might be interpreted and used as a tool in someones trading plan to support trade location, support, resistance, targets... and failure.. Hope you all find it useful. Regards Tom

2:15 cst.. I took my initial target of 1310.00 Made new high 1310.50..and Delta dropped I still have 1311.00 + ish target but stomach lining... MP: Sure... Great tool if it fits for you..It is in how you integrate it...and sorting out all the nonsense that doesn't matter to use the pieces that add value to your plan... I did all these posts today win/lose or draw to show how a profile might be interpreted and used as a tool in someones trading plan to support trade location, support, resistance, targets... and failure.. Regards Tom..

I posted this also on the Value thread but I wanted to update the trade since I posted it here and my MP read. Current Trade Update: 12:42 cst.. We tested IBH/VWAP support 1306.75 low tick 1306.50. Earlier I posted 1306.00 was key support based on the profile distribution... I do expect rotation since the market is long and especially during lunch the market will counter-trend rotate for the stops under the market..it doesn't have to but unless we are on a freight train that seems to be the norm... For me the rotations are key and this is where seeing the fat part of the profile gives me an idea of where the rotation ought to go to... Currently the train is on time. Of course there is no guarantee that the structure won't fail but it is just a map... Also by waiting for this rotation this would be an area to enter a new position or to add... I did not do either. If I had targets higher up and I had better scales previously today I would have but my trade location is 1305.50 so I am sitting with my current positions at that price.. So we have a current triple top @ 1309.75... If this structure holds I "anticipate" the possibility of a new high this afternoon.. I am extending my target higher 1311.00 ish since if that current high is breached there should be some energy there... I am only posting this to show one way of using MP.. I hope some of you find these helpful.. I cannot post charts since my trading platform is on a dedicated computer..sorry. If someone else could post a profile it might be helpful for someone who visits the thread. tx Regards, Tom

Current Trade Update: 12:42 cst.. We tested IBH/VWAP support 1306.75 low tick 1306.50. Earlier I posted 1306.00 was key support based on the profile distribution... I do expect rotation since the market is long and especially during lunch the market will counter-trend rotate for the stops under the market..it doesn't have to but unless we are on a freight train that seems to be the norm... For me the rotations are key and this is where seeing the fat part of the profile gives me an idea of where the rotation ought to go to... Currently the train is on time. Of course there is no guarantee that the structure won't fail but it is just a map... Also by waiting for this rotation this would be an area to enter a new position or to add... I did not do either. If I had targets higher up and I had better scales previously today I would have but my trade location is 1305.50 so I am sitting with my current positions at that price.. So we have a current triple top @ 1309.75... If this structure holds I "anticipate" the possibility of a new high this afternoon.. I am extending my target higher 1311.00 ish since if that current high is breached there should be some energy there... I am only posting this to show one way of using MP.. I hope some of you find these helpful.. I cannot post charts since my trading platform is on a dedicated computer..sorry. If someone could post a TPO/Volume Profile of today it would be helpful to show some of the structure...tx Regards, Tom

Add: At 10:08 cst we did rotate to 1306.50..we 1-ticked the IBH 1306.75.. that is profile for you... just a reference point for a position if it aligns with other tools... I did not add - I am still long with a B/E stop. After this test of IBH we rotated to 1309.75..I am still long target 1310.00 CHVN 1310.50 low of closing range 1310.00.. If we get through 131050..possibility of 1311.25 - 1312.25 NVPOC... Current supp 1306.00 ish...if violated structure has changed..as of now... Just my current read of the MP.. @ 11:25 cst.. BTW: MP Practitioners say there is apx a 80% probability (I think) that once the previous days Value area is penetrated that price will go to the previous VA extreme, this would be 1314.25 area, yest VAH.. I do not trade with that... Regards, Tom

What is interesting is the market is long..(I am long 5.50 on other Value thread) I doscussed DVPOC shift & rotation to IBH I scaled 1 @ 1307.00 CLVN 1307.50 and have another targeting 1310.00 CHVN 1310.50 & low of CLosing range yesterday... Since we have a "local high" there 1309.75 current HOD - there "could" be some fuel up there for a test of HOD and possible extension up to 1311 -yest close or 1312.25 NVPOC.. We currently 11:01 cst have shallow rotation and a balance support area currently 1306.75 IBH... & CLVN 1307.50.. "Currently" still friendly to upside unless they get below 1306.00 IMHO... Just what I see in MP right now.. 11:01 cst Tom

Agree: Here is something interesting that we ahve discussed here: At 10:02 cst the DVPOC shifted up to 1307.50. We have debated whether this current developing high volume area is acceptance or rejection.. Buying was shut off and the mnarket is rotating... so to me , at that time there was agreement on value...buyer/seller were matched...buyers were absorbed by sellers..at that time... will the buyers show up again on the rotation? Don't know..the IBH.. 1306.75 might act as support for a long...just sign posts in the profile. IMHO... Still long.. might add...helmet on.. Add: At 10:08 cst we did rotate to 1306.50..we 1-ticked the IBH 1306.75.. that is profile for you... just a reference point for a position if it aligns with other tools... I did not add - I am still long with a B/E stop. Regards, Tom Add: I just want to mention, and this is something that many of you might agree with, is that I always know that I don't know... Mentally when I think I know I tend to not allow other possibilities in since I am looking to be right... I have disciplined myself to be in the moment and to look for the opportunity - not to be right... that si why predicting is not what I do.. I want to detect and follow the order flow... t

LOL: You got the jump on me... I got long at 1305.50, scaled 1 @ 07.00 & targeting 1310.00... stop B/E The 1307.00 Target was based on a CLVN @ 1307.50 and the 1310.00 target is based on a CHVN @ 1310.50 and the low of yesterdays closing range... The key for me is how the market behaves in these areas... Also I had a short view coming in but couldn't get setup for it... so I just go with the flow... This happens to me so often I take my own expectations as medium probability - I just watch how the market behaves, Delta, etc... and wear a helmet.. Regards, Tom

JOsh/: I certainly agree.. Yesterday 1.23.12 my upside number was ES 1317.50... when we failed off of there it set up 1302.50..hit in GBX and below, near-term 1298.75 CLVN and 1297.00 NVPOC Area as downside targets... I am going to favor short side but will go with the flow... Good Trading, Tom

Josh:I was actally meant to say "agreement." But I am curious if the Closes have similar signifigence... Tx Tom

Steve: That is very interesting... If Open is an agreement of value at that time, isn't the close an agreement on value also? Regards, Tom

I understand what you mean... I guess that is a traditional take on it... Some of the concepts that are part of the MP dogma are non-starters for me also..By now you can probably see I picked and choose the parts of it that work for me... It's not an all or nothing tool... As far as Dalton goes, I have never read his book though MOM has been recommended as a good resource.. Agree about the wind in your sails...successful trading is a mutidimensional puzzle... need that wind.. Regards, Tom

Goldman and other Big Guns: If you consider from MP lingo the market movers are called Other Time Frame (OTF)Traders.. These are the guys who actually cause change in market direction... or trend moves in the market.. The level of their activity in the market is what creates the range... In MP this is called (RE) Range Extension... Once I observe this activity, just one of the sign posts of activity, I will try to initially align myself in that direction... (with other supporting tools) What I do: I will use the profile and good old charts and the kitchen sink to find a location/retracement to position "with" the OTF.. If they wanted it earlier then there is a probability they will want it again... If they do want it how far will it go in the direction of the initial RE? How far will it rotate back against the initial impulse? Don't know..but the profile does let me look to see where it might be, based on the volume or urgency that price moved away. However, when I take one of these trades and align with the OTF, I also look at where stops would build on the other side. I want fuel to be there for my trade. I want to scale out along the way as it rotates up to test potentially the current HOD.. What is the fuel for it? Short covering/New buying... So I target stops on the other side, HOD and other targets beyond: Naked VPOC's, CHVN/CLVN, Previous untested cCloses, Value Area, Previous Highs, etc. if there is other supporting structure... MM: I can't say what percentage of the time the profile works..it always works for me.. whether the trade is succesful is not dependent on the profile just like Fib's trades are not successful because of a 50% retracement. Profile just compliments other market generated information. I think we can agree to disagree on the value of the information generated by MP. The difference is how valuable that information is and where it fits into the overall picture to develop a successful trade plan. If someone uses MP and they are more successful with it than without - then that is the point isn't it? If it doesn't work for an individual then that is ok too. There are so many tools I have studied like so many readers of this thread and discarded in over 30 years of this that I can't remember... The 30 yr is only relevant relating to the time I have spent living/breathing this business and the opportunity I've had to try to find tools that work for myself... It will never stop...I am always looking to maintain or increase my edge... MM: You did mention 30% MP succes I think, and that could not be any different than EW or other tools..that things can work on a random basis. I might be wrong..if you were referencing my comment I said it was about 30% of my process.. Of course, my trade is not dependent on MP, I do trade the open at times before the daily profile develops but I know where the areas of interest are.. I also know when not to participate and wait for the market to come to me... the profile helps me see this. How many times can you look at a market and know with high certainty that the market "could" rotate to a specfifc area and you can position with a couple ticks? If you were going to take a trade and all other tools per your trade plan aligned wouldn't you? That's the point right? One thing I want to empasize for readers, IMHO MP is NOT a mechanical process... While it has structure and black/white definitions, it is not a system. No Holy Grail..not the answer to the secret sauce.. It is almost always shades of gray and subject to interpretation.. Speed of movement... , when stops are hit how fast does it come back in the direction of the trend.. What does it mean when it rotates against the day trend and can't even 1 tic the previous 30 min bar...? Buyers were aggressive..it is very nuance driven..BTW that would also be a Double Bottom on your bar chart, etc... many similarities..not really different..you'd recognize that without the profile - the interpretation is the issue and also the implimentation, IMHO. The volume aspect is the key for me.. VOLUME is the edge for me.. (IMHO) Should readers invest in learning this tool? If you can learn the tool and integrate it successfully it "may" give you an edge over those who can't/don't. It provides a depth of market generated information and in this business we have to fight to find an edge and to keep it.. There are many good videos on this topic on the site..It is a good place to get a general understanding of the concepts and other threads that are helpful also.. Regards, Tom

MMouse: True: How we get there is the key..also we all probably see different things in the tools that are useful.. and use what works for us.. I hope there are more users of MP that will join this thread and share what they get from it and how they use it.It probably will be quite diverse. Regards, Tom

[Deleted by Tom: accidental duplicate post

Of course not.. that is not the output of those tools... Direction though can be determinded as the profile develops by a number of indications - the primary one being who is domininte at any particular time in the developing timeframe. Technically it is called Range Extension. This is where the initial balance (IB) is tipped over and one side dominates after the first hour. In the context of Value if the market is building higher value and it is accepted vs the previous days value then the market is gaining acceptance and is moving higher... As far as interday rotation and direction it has little to do with how it will develop or rotate.. The profile will often give you clues of whether the day time frame is changing and also indications if it will fail, etc... If the structure is holding then you will be able to identify areas of rotation to align yourself with the strong hands - is that directional? Yes.. Can you lose? Yes.. Can you step in front of a reversal yes..is their any indicator plan, system that doesn't take losses? No... I certainly do not use it alone..I couldn't use it that way though many MP novices try to.. I don't know how they do it.. apparently most don't. Maybe we'll meet some here... Timeframe is important.. If you trade the day timeframe and the day gaps up and takes out yesrterdays high - get the breakout players in and then reverses and closes near the lower part of the range but builds higher value is the market going up or is it a top? The profile will give you hints as to what is going on.. Will the market fill the gap down on the open the next day maybe test the previous days close or Value Area High (VAH) and then rotate out of there to continue the uptrend? Nobody knows.. Only as the day type develops will we know... As far as direction it is only probabilities..I personally don't worry about that - I trade in the now. How the market gets there is the unknown. Other indicators guide that .. The profile helps me align but it is only a component.. certainly not an indicator perse but knowing the prices that are important from the past and also observing how it delelops in the day timeframe helps me substantially... In addition, the integration of longer-term cumulative High and Low Volume nodes is a major contribution from profile theory that is indispensible to me. I'm not suggesting everyone should trade with the profile..no tool can work for everyone..it just isn't that simple. If trading was we'd all go buy a blackbox and do "plug & play." I have found that the tools individual traders use successfully are very diverse... What works for one doesn't work for another which is why it is difficult if not impossible to replicate what another successful trader does... How many times do we buy a book, hear of the latest fad, software, etc. invest time, $, brain damage only to go on a wild goose chase... The profile is no different... I have spent years with it..have abandoned it, told people not to waste their time with it...scoffed at it.. eventhough when I learned it from Pete Stedilmeier he had made a fortune with it. You'd think I could replicte him, right? Wrong. This is the challange..seems you are defending or advocating what is wrong with it..if we were discussing any other technical tool we would be having the same discussion but most tools out there from one degree to another are used successfully in some manner by some and not by others... and the opinions are as diverse as we see here. Look at the huge number of canned technical tools that comes in todays software.. do we really need all of them to trade successfully? No, just the right ones - for us. The only thing I know is that I have forgotten more about MP than I can remember..I have taken a different track with it then what is traditional I believe...; I don't even know if I am technically accurate from an academic standpoint - I can't remeber the last time I referenced a text on it. But there is a huge gap between those who teach and those who do. I am not an expert on it..never claimed to be one, never will.. but I do make $ with it.. Here is what I know - just for me. I trade full time, MP is about 30% of my process.. I know what it can do and what it can't - for me.. Those who read some book and blindly follow a rigerous structure probably will not succeed with it... that was my experience. It is probably the same for most technical tools. I do appreciate your comments...I hear myself in them - I was there once also... If you knew me back in the early 1980's when I was first exposed to it after I spent countless hours, months, $ and gave up - you would be shocked to know that it is an important part of my trade plan today.. The thing you might consider is this: some very successful large traders - retail traders the $7 figure annual income crowd will not trade without it. Traders who have successfully migrated off the floor, will not trade without it - This also includes Prop Traders, Fund Mgrs, etc. There are also other large successful traders who will have nothing to do with it.. They are both right.. and so are you. Thanks for your posts. Regards, Tom

Value is another way to define Support/Resistance...not the same but based on the Statistical aspect of the profile that is what value area is : 70% of price over time (TPO based) or 70% of Volume ...choose your preference... Value does not give you direction just like Supp/Res doesn't give you direction... Support/Resistance have nothing to do with creating directional moves unless of course they are breached ie breakout... they are just sign posts...A Value area is just another sign post based on previous market behavior..Todays behavior is a Developing Value Area DVA...no different from todays developing Supp/Res..they represent different things but develop based on market behavior... Regards, Tom

Darn it Steve... I was hoping you had the special sauce The stop thing is one of the most difficult for me.. I have actually 3 types of exits: I trade in units of 3. 1. Fixed number of ticks based on a high probability - typically 1.25 pts ES... this is just to reduce my risk... apx 64% probability. 2. Short term target usually a node or spot where stops have accumulated on an interday basis... stop follow 50% behind or at some chart point... 3. Longterm target: This is the longball...on a interday basis.. Usually a naked VPOC or /node depending on the context... Of course my issue is when it rotates and I watch my 2 and or 3rd lot come back on me... A number of my trader buddies are all in all out.. they trade size and say why bother with shooting for targets...get momentum then get out of Dodge.. Of course some of these guys are Exchange members and pay nothing to trade like that... Tx, Tom

Stochastics is just another oscillator and has it's place if you know how to read it...but it should not be used as a simple cross-over. I suggest the CCI as was mentioned earlier.. In addition, Stoch can get you into a countertrend trade and can be very ugly if you are trying to position.or swing trade...with the trend.. I do use it just to keep an eye on cycles/rotations but not to trigger any trades.. If you are just starting out the best way to go is get an online simulater account... this will allow you to experiment and save your $ for education and not donate it to the traders retirement fund.. Also pick something that has volatility like an ETF or just a stock and get to know it... Once you learn technical analysis you can trade anything..it is almost all the same, notwithstanding volatility of some markets, thinness of volume but that is not your concern as a newbie... Good luck...this is the best and also toughest business.. Regards, Tom Good luck..

I don't know if I'm agreeing or disagreeing.. :doh: For some that might be new to this: Think of it as a car dealership who is the seller and the public who is the buyer... If the dealers price is too high he will sell very few cars (shut off buying). If the price goes down to entice buyers then the dealer (seller) will move volume to the buyers.. he will facilitate trade..the purpose of any market - retail or otherwise... He will sell the most cars at and create the most volume at fair value - both sides have to agree on a narrow range of price, the buyer and seller.. If price goes too low the dealer won't want to sell cars and will stop selling. The buyers will have to pay up if they want to buy a car. That is why you will see the fat distribution curve on a profile with a high volume price point where the majority of sales took place...When proce moves to high it shuts off buying when it moves too low it shuts of selling.. I'm talking a Normal distribution. High horizontal volume on a profile at a price is agreement on value, not rejection of it... However, if perception of value changes then price can change and find or explore for a new agreed upon fair value... ex: A car plant blows up and they can't get the most popular model...perception of value will change and price will go up to reflect shortage of supply..(lack of sellers) and then find a new fair value that buyer/seller agree upon again.. same as an Economic report or some other external event that creates changes in perception of value.in the market.. The market moves to discover fair price - along the way price can move to extremes away from fair and then return or establish a new fair price... at a new level... On an interday basis the HVN/VPOC will chage as the market searches for agreement on value..also depending on what type of volume takes place and where the High Volume can have a different meaning... It is a dynamic indication not a directional one... I wrote earlier on this thread that I use it with Delta and other tools to acces it's meaning but when it shifts it can signal an important potential change and a potential opportunity. Like everything it is the context and also the shape and widrth of the profile that helps determine it's meaning...that is a more complex topic. In addition price can move away from VPOC/HVN and as it moves to discover a new fair value...When that happens the VPOC will still show the high volume but price will be moving away from it... "disagreement" since price is moving to a new level...Agreement comes first..that is what VPOC/HVN is. Disagreement is a change in value when the price moves to discover a new agreed upon fair value or HVN/VPOC (Vol Point of Control). Once the market agrees on a new fair value after rotating in price discovery, the market will balance and a new fair value/high volume price point will be established... IMHO.. Regards, Tom

Steve: Exits are the toughest part of this for me... I do trade with targets and most often achieve them.. However, ATR is too slow for daytrading (for me) and trailing a fixed amount doesn't work... Sometimes I get great trade location but the market rotates and I get out to protect some profit, give up trade location and the rotation might have been shallow and then I have to reposition & give up 1 - 1.5 ES pts to get back in..often I will not do that because I've given up my edge... depends... on the day structure. I still am not satisfied with my exits and haven't found anything - yet, that doesn't leave too much on the table.. just to confirm, I do scale out along the way... Regards, Tom

Squishy: One thing I have observed with VWAP/MP is that when VWAP & VPOC align it can be a strong Supp/Res level. Also when VWAP aligns with IBH/IBL this can be another area for potential trade location with the caveat that it must align with other confirming tools.. For those new to MP: IBH/IBL, VPOC, VAH/VAL are some MP terms refering to the profile structure/elements. Regards, Tom