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roztom
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Everything posted by roztom
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As I may have posted previously I learned it directly form Steidlmayer in the early 1980's.. & have only read "Markets and Market Logic." I worked with it for about a year and discarded it... When the CBOT introduced the Liquidity Databank I thought that would give it an edge (LDB was Volume) only available in T-BOnds at that time but I couldn't do anything with it. I didcarded it and became a critic of it for many years... The auction process made sense to me but not TPO time based trading.. which is one reason today I am not time based but swing based... I am self taught I guess... Other that Steidlmeirs original book I have not read anything on it.. I visited a Chat room a number of years ago to see what was new but nothing really was... Actually the profile is very similar to my bar charts except I see the volume as well as the price.. I don't think I am doing anything different than anyone else... One thing and this is a negative for me is I cannot backtest and have a mechanical process. I just know where the areas are and make a judement when we get there..that creates a random outcome..very dangerous for a trader as Steve has mentioned especially from the psycological side... but I have much more confidence and patience waiting for the market to come to me instead of me chasing it.. I would be glad to discuss further off the thread if you would lilke.. I am passionate about what it can add.. Thanks for asking.. Regards, Tom
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Sobo: I guess the ES is the primary focus here but chances are the Nodes are proportionate.. What you might take away from this is the process at least form the areas of interest and if MP is something you want to integrate it is a generic process and transferable to all markets assuming liquidity/volume/volatility required... for day trading.. I have used MP for ETF's, etc. anything that moves... the process is all the same... It does help however, to have a "feel" for the behavior and volatility of specific markets..certianly Crude trades differently than ES but technically it works the same. IMHO. Regards, Tom
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N: Not sure is I dodn't misread your post but High of GBX as of 7:18cst is CLVN 1317.50. This is the same number we had from Friday.. That being said 1319.50 NVPOC - 1322.00 ish range is in play for today.. 1324.25 could be a reach.. If we get above that then we are going to explore new highs for the move... On a personal note I do not think that is in the cards... but that is up to OTF, not me. I "suspect" we will start with the upside move and test with the potential eventual rejection of higher prices as we stay inside this range/bracket baring any suprises - of course at least for me, until I see the MP development I don't know what will unfold. If I see anything of interest I will try to post.. Wish all good trading... Regards, Tom
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I am done for today, heading out to lunch.. Thank you for your interest. I will check back later.. Good trading .. Tom
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UPdate: This morning @ 8:20 cst post # 1119 I projected my upside target for 1307 -1308.00. Target achieved 12:47 cst. BTW, this does not mean that this move is over 1310.50 ish might be in play..but I am flat...and will evaluate rotations for potential continuation... Regards, Tom If this commentary helps - or if I can do it better - let me know..
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I just didn't want to waste space... but if Negotiator doesn't mind I will do that.. Thanks for the kind words... Tom
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UPdate: 12:27cst... Rotated to area as projected.. held IBH to tick 1301.50.. GOt long..1302.75... (I really need to get better trade location) Initial scale 1304.25 next 1305.75.. helmet on... long final target 1307.00 ish as prev posted... Just FYI Tom UPdate: 12:38cst..1305.75 scale achieved... CLVN 1306.00 high tick so far... HOlding last position for 1307.00 area... Regards, Tom
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I am still waiting on rotation as of 11:38 cst. CHVN 1304.00 is containing upside so far... I always look for these counter-rotations over lunch when the market/OTF player thins out and it is easier to counter-rotate for stop raids... The only reason I trade during lunch is to put a position on for a continuation trade... The hard part is trying to step in front of the counter-rotation - assuming we get it... (as previously noted). I know I'm not telling any of you anything new... I hope you find some value in these posts and that you can follow along. I am not suggesting that this is the secret sause but over time you might see how MP can be integrated into your plan or at least that it is a rational process that does work... Brain Damage is included.. \ 11:48cst..just got DVPOC shift to 1302.50 as previously posted..now it will get interesting ..helmet on... Potential rotation/stop areas IBH, etc key for longs. IMHO.. Regards, Tom
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Target is gap close initially 1307.00 ish... looking for potential rotation to 1300.50 - 1301.50 ish area for potential long. Why? We currently have a balance area developing here with LVN @ 1301.25 IBH. Also stops will be resting in those areas... According to MP market will auction and once a temporary balance is created it will test buyers and sellers on both sides... My thinking is always what will attract the market to a specific area (interday) It is where the stops potentially are gathered... Of course, if the OTF is agressive the market won't get there.. BTW as of 10:41 cst the market paused at CHVN 1304.00 even (1304.25) and is now doing some rotation. CHVN are typically temporary obstacles. CLVN 1306.00 area is more important.. SO I will be waiting for the roation as noted above and target 1306.00 area.. initially and play it forward from there.. 10:55 cst. DVPOC shift to 1302.50 wil denote new Balance area as outlined. Just my humble opinion - the way I interpret this.. the market determines if it plays out that way. Good trading.. Tom
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Yes downside objectives fulfilled at this time... "Bailing is such sweet sorrow" :crap: But that is the real world of trading... I will play the rotations when they set up... Regards, Tom
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I took long @ 1297.75.. At bit late bailed on it took only a point... Initial target was VWAP @ 1300.75 I had scale at 1300.25 and then hold...but am out now..looks like it will achieve first scale point... I will be waiting for rotation and see where it takes us..I believe LOD @ 1296.00 is in "for now." Good Trading .. Tom
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I have the same number... BTW: As of 8:53 cst.. Initial Target 1297.00 NVPOC Closed... Covered Shorts from open... Will watch development/volume for potential longs..."but" :rofl: Must focus now..see you all later.. God Trading. Tom
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:missy: That's why I wear a helmet... I find these areas as "attractors" for the market..These are locations of previous cumulative OTF activity... Just how I approach the market. This past Friday the market hit my upside number CLVN 1317.50 on the close. High tick 1317.25. I got shook out of my long on the break just before it rallied up there... such is the game we play. As you know we have discussed Time/Calender based Profiles and Market Swing based profiles which I use and I really think it is a matter of personal integration with how one experiences the market... and how they help the individuals meet their objectives.. It is always intersting to see the dynamics of the market unfold..unfortunately it has it's own schedule so I just try to get in sync with it.. BTW:Friday IBL: 1307.00 - 1308 area are key upside for today if Fridays range is tested..just my 2c... Regards, Tom
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The ES Targets I posted on Friday 1296.75 CHVN - 1298.75 CLVN with Major NVPOC @ 1297.00 are still open for today.. Monday.. There the market will have to make a major decision. IMHO. 1310.50 key on the upside. Otherwise potential for 1285.50 ish bottom of next bracket...NVPOC 1280.00 Good Trading All - Helmet on.. Regards, Tom
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I agree on the constraints of the calender but when I went from TPO (time) based profiles to Volume based PRofiling I considered that II didn't want it both ways - a conflict of data so since VOlume was market based and the market is swing based that was my rationale... Regards, Tom
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Josh: While you kick back & have a cocktail..since your 1308 was hit in Globex which was also a GLobex NVPOC as posted earlier, it will be interesting to see if RTH gets to my numbers down below as posted .. Regards, Tom
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I actually do not look at it that way... I do understand the concept... I am focused on the volume and the "market" generated information... where the OTF was active vs the calender...again this is what my work has shown...For years I used calender based profiles and Value areas and time based NVPOC in the larger composites - I found my numbers seem to work better with market generatet volume based on where the market did it's business... I expect the market to return within to test these areas of OTF activity.. as the market criss-crosses an area and the Cumulative nodes are created. Remember, this is not a counterpoint. Josh, you & I seem to use the Composite Profiles in a similar fashion.. I "suspect" even if you impose calander based timeframes that the volume will show up at the key nodes ... Interesting.. Regards, Tom
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Josh: I was looking at your 1308.00 area and it happens to coincide with a NVPOC on my GLobex profile.. just point of interest.. I am watching 1297.00 area as NVPOC on RTH profile..with CLVN @ 1298.75 and CHVN @ 1296.75. This IMHO is a major area and a attractor for the market to test.. I thought I would mention that my composite profiles are based on Major Swing H/Low on the daily timeframe and then minor swings inside.. The Major composite CHVN/CLVN are where I look for areas of interest overlaying them with NVPOC's and the delevoping daily profiles... Not to criticize anyones approach since whatever works for the indovidual is great, I found that imposing calender time on the market is external from the market.. I went to market swings as reference poiints as my time reference for calculating the composites.. just a point of interest not a counterpoint... Regards, Tom
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Scaled @ 14.50...low of Yesterdays M Period & just ahead of 50% retracement...thought there's be some stops there which there were.. Still holding a light short position...thought there'd be a bit more push...protecting open trade... Regards, Tom Update: @ 1:18 cst cover all shorts 1313.75... as posted earlier.. Might add for scalping if there is decent rotation with proper structure... just my thinking right now..
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Yes : That si my target area..also I added at the area I previously posted... 19.50 - 75 ish... Josh: Agree with your assessment however I have a bit lower than you...1297.00 - 98.75 ish Regards, Tom
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Agree: That is why 19.50 - 19.75 is an area of interest... as of 12:12cst it has held the rotation BUT, IBL @ 1322.25 & single @ 22.00 are also in the mix... Watching those 2 areas to add...as of now. Regards, Tom
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:crap: Same thinking here with the reports coming...Nothing like having the numbers but, at least for me I had conflict in my tools.. + reports. SO like many other times, until the market shows it's hand I must wait... I did get on the short side and squeezed a few out of it and am still still lightly short looking for a test of the 1313 - 1314 area... and depending on how we rotate over lunch I may add postions back... BTW: @ 11:54 cst ////dvpoc 1319.50 & CHVN @ 1319.75 are areas of interest but it is still early for the rotation...watching it..just fyi.. Regards, Tom
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I did not post this earlier so feel free to disreagrd it... I had a NVPOC 1329.50. The only thing relevant here is that it is a MP area or target.. And NO, I did not get short up there.. Regards Tom
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N: Good summary and review of the recent events and posts by Josh and myself... It demonstrates how MP can assist in identifying areas of interest and how it can help monitor changes and the areas to watch for where the OTF balance will tip for directional movement. BTW: Yest I came in, got short right after the open..grabbed a few points and wondered what was next... With Fed time setting up I stood aside "thinking that we moght take the low out after the Fed but we were building higher value and finally had RE up...so I turned my brain around 180 degrees and traded the long side... One thing, eventhough the short side was rejected, I had no idea of the power of the up move until it started to unfold, but it didn't matter. I got on the right side and followed my plan... amd was appropriately rewarded for it... Regards, Tom