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roztom
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Everything posted by roztom
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Nice work Steve.. How do you manage the sleep thing? Thanks for the posts..Tom
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Upside Nodes/Targets as Previously posted: Yep We are in thin air up here... I have 29.75 recent top and a CLVN 1333.25 , CHVN 35.75, CLVN38.50. SO far after the report we have tagged the 35.75 area.. also had 1335.00 NVPOC up here.. The Nodes are gelpful reference points/Targets, etc as we have already discussed... As this morning with the Employment Report this does not indicate a suggestion to fade the numbers or anything but I believe you will see the market react to them and then as the RTH timeframe develops give guidance for potential positions.. Here is a question: Affter a big move like this and a breakout to a new level...how do you trade it? 1. Wait for rotations to go with the direction of the move? 2. Countertrend trade it..the move is over and late buyers will get stuffed? 3. Trade from both sides? 4. Other? Regards, Tom
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Yes it was a very tradable day... ..Perfect MP Neutral... Regards, Tom
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I'll post an update: 12/;52cst... I had previously posted 22.00 as a point of interest.. I took another scale there.. Why? Bottom of OR and top of "I" period...stops are/were there, VWAP, etc Todays Open, Yesterdays VPOC - all of those items told me to scale and that area "might" be an obstacle if even only temporarily... All of that information is on your chart or a Profile... That's my thinking - discretionary but planned ahead.. As Steve said: You have to read the market.. I still am managing the last part of my position and depending on the structure might always add or reverse...I have no clue... Regards, Tom
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:angry:Please remember - there is no magic pill for this... and I really hope nobody takes these trades... the purpose of my posts is to share just one way of using MP/VP and the NODES... As you know I do not stand in front of the nodes but when they align with other market generated information and the area is confirmed as a qualified set-up, for me - I take the trade.. Please remember the purpose of this thread is to share information - not call trades... I'm sure there are better traders lurking here. I only want to share a thought process and how it aligns with some of the market generated information in MP/VP.. I have no corner on great trading.. just some tools.. We all want to make $ trading.. However, I think it might be as important or more than the set-up for me to demonstrate how I lose $... We don't see too many of those posts do we? I'm sure we all take losses - right? If I post -a set-up I will also post the losses otherwise I'm just wasting your time and mine.. that is not my intent.. Managing the risk of the trade is key... knowing where you are wrong... or if internals say you are wrong... IT's the risk that will take you out of this business. I do not blindly put a stop in and wait to get run over.. I do always have a stop but it rarely gets taken. I am usually out before and take a small loss unless the market reacts extremely to some item.. I hope you can see that the MP/VP may have a place in your arsenal... It is not easy to learn since at least to my thinking there is so much useless information attached to it.. Regards, Tom
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So I am long, have scaled already and have made back almost all of my loss from the last long... and sitting.. So now what? Where are stops resting on the other side? 22.00? higher? Will we rotate up to the DVAH again..take out yesterdays high? No clue.. It's lunchtime... Good Trading.. Regards, Tom
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I thought I'd mention a trade I just took and it can be a loser, of course...might be - this is just to share the thinking..it could be the wrong thinking.. The market rotated as we anticipated... We had RE on the upside and tested VAH 1325.75... I won't post what I did up there since it is past already... but you knew the plan.. Here is what I am doing now... I took a long off the 19.25 area... Here's why...and nobody should do this... IBL/and stops under it/Bottom of yesterdays Closing Swing 1318.75 & CHVN 1319.75 and most revealing IMHO only 40 contracts traded 1318.75 Will it work? Is it right? NO clue... If I don't like what I see I will bail.. but the market did have information there that could be actionable.. Let's see how it develops.. Please do not do this trade.. it may have further extension down.. Regards, Tom Here's my update: I took a loss on the trade.. this is ok - for me... My next area down is CLVN 1317.50... this has been an important area.. I repositioned long against that... Another item of interest... and I have no clue if the downside is over or whether we will go for the stops under yesterdays low... In MP we have a Neutral Day.. both sides are active and currently are in balance... "Theory" in MP is that unless something changes we will at least go back to the middle at some point..we can actually do anything as you know.. After taking the loss I just repositioned lower - I must manage this position... Good Trading & do not follow the trade.. please.. Regards, Tom
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I have no clue... I don't predict, I can't predict. Trading for me is not predicting but detecting. I just trade what I perceive is the market generated information which is a reflection of the participants and I can interpret it incorrectly as anyone else. I wait for my areas, confirm the set-up, place my trade, manage it.. etc.. It either is successful or it isn't.. If I follow my plan - win, lose or draw on any trade - I win... Regards, Tom
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Well put Steve..yesterday I posted several targets on the upside: 29.75 - 33.00 ish.. We didn't get there yesterday but yesterdays high is weak IMHO... like spaghetti.. After lunch will be interesting... Regards, Tom
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That is correct. Inside out/outside in from the edges to each VAL/VAH... with an eye on yesterdays high since it wasn't tested.. but I am more interested in the rotations... right now.. What is the market waiting for? News... What Major report is tomorrow? Employment. If we get going on the upside and break out of this balance then the market will have changed until then... Helmet on... Regards, Tom
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The questions I asked pre-market are the questions you should be asking yourself.. What is the market trying to do..? What did we learn yesterday in RTH (Other Than I got Nicked on the IBH Trade)? What about Globex? How did it trade in relation to yesterdays RTH? Did it trade differently than it has recently? What does that suggest for today? Should you have a different plan for different conditions...? Can you make $ today? Can you make $ with yesterdays strategy in todays market? I'm just asking... The answers are very important IMHO..just my 2ct Hope this helps.. Regards, Tom
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:haha: If you think I have the answers we are ALL in big trouble... :helloooo: That's why I asked you guys the question.. Here's how I see it and what I am doing differently... today This market is "currently" in balance.. it will probably probe both extremes of Value from yesterdays RTH. 1320.25 on the low and 1325.75 ish on the upside... When we opened in the middle I saw the Opening range test yesterdays IBH.. this was a tip-off to me to watch for a short set-up.. I confirmed it with DElta and the Magic-8 ball took a short for a test of the lower value area and yesterdays close + CHVN 1319.75.. covered and reversed & took some out the other way.on the long side.. For me today it was/is Inside out, outside in..with the VAL/VAH as areas to be probed.. If we break out of balance then I would "go with" and position with the direction...until that happens I would trade rotations... Are yesterdays targets on the upside still in play? Yes. But we might only nick yesterdays high or maybe not at all .. as far as yesterdays high goes there is no tail so it wasn't rejected IMHO just lack of buying -- in MP we call that a local high.. it "could/should" be taken out in the future... maybe today/maybe not - no clue - except it is there.. Again I might be totally off and this can change as the market generates new info... It's just to demonstrate a read of the market at this time / the open of RTH and the information MP/VP can provide.. Hope this is rational and helpful.. This is a piece of what I take from MP/VP. Regards, Tom
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Thursday's Market: What "might" we anticiipate for today? Globex traded inside yesterdays RTH... /we probed the CLVN 1317.50 so what is reasonable..? What is the market waiting for... ? Look where we are going to open RTH..what is it saying? Would you trade today any differently than yesterday? If so, how? Why? Regards, Tom
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Well put... I find if I am going to enter a trade I want it to be at a make or break area... A key level... I know if I am going to be wrong - I am usually way wrong..If I am right in my entry my risk is small and I have great trade location... even todays IBH trade did not have a large risk on it.. in my trade plan it was the right place to go long and add to my position.. (for me). I think the management of open trades is tougher than entries also... What the heck do you do once you have the tiger by the tail? A good entry is imnportant.. good enties allow you to manage your risk efficiently but then what? How/When do you scale? What about a target... other than Nodes what other targets are there, etc... I shoot for other targets - stops...on the other side... We have been focused on entry/targets built on MP/VP.. I hope we can get into trade management and exits... Regards, Tom
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Thanks Cory.. I know this is semantic but I do not have any skill to predict the market or make any market calls. There is no statistical predictive ability - at least I don't have it. I am a descretionary trader. I tossed the statisical aspect of MP a long time ago. I wanted to "read" the market.. it helps me do that. The targets and areas of interest stand... what the market does is up to the participants... I only use the tool to identify areas of interest. I also know that there is a high probability the market will test those nodes... What I believe that nobody knows is when... My upside targets still stand - I don't know if we will hit them overnight, tomorrow or never.. I also scale out of my position along the way since I just don't know... I have always said - I know I don't know... that being said the market seems to go back and test Highs/Lows, etc Volume areas... Auction theory... The profiles - Cumulative especially certianly have helped me see the potential of where the market might go and what to look for when we get there.. Targets are nice..I have to have a rationale and a target when I trade since my cost is too high to scalp.. I am forced into a longer timeframe to play the rotations.. so the profile and the nodes helps me see where my potential is..that is what those numbers are all about. Since I have been posting this month a lot of the targets, etc have worked very well.. The other day several hours before an IB trade set up I posted the area, Not all IB's are the same.. there needs to be a LVN there and a balance above the IB - it ticked there and then took off to hit the target. What was different between today and then..? The setups/area of interest were the same - the level of participants weren't.. No way to know in advance.. BTW if someone does know if a trade will work in advance - PLEASE post... I'm glad the posts help... I also hope that nobody misunderstands the purpose. I'm just another guy squeezing the blood out of the turnip..I also believe that MP is possibly one of the most misunderstood tools available to the retail trader. I believe there is so much distraction in the theorhetical/technical aspects that it's true value is easily obscured. MP/VP can be very helpful if integrated into the toolbox.. and the Academic aspect is jetisioned for the practical application.. Just my 2 cts... Again appreciate your kind words.. Regards, Tom
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Steve: As you know many here are interested in MP/VP... nobody has ever suggested a mechanical approach to MP. We all know it doesn't work. MP/VP in context with other tools, as you pointed out has value.. that has always been a consistent theme of the discussion here. Back in the early 80's when it was introduced it was initially presented in a somewhat rule based format... I couldn't work it that way..couldn't trade with it... Today with volume it certainly provides me with areas of interest to consider taking positons... as well as allowing me to see when the structure is breaking down.. I do not advocate mechanical trading - too many variables. I also assume that we all use a confluence of tools and do so in a different manner...so one size does not fit all... My objective in posting - and I believe this is quite clear is to try to demonstrate the MP tool as the market develops and to help those following the thread to read it as it is unfolding. MP really has to be learned as it unfolds not as a static picture.. Whether anyone wants or should integrate MP into their trading is up to them but when I learned it, it was static pictures in a book except for what I saw develop on my CQG machine. IT didn't work for me.. nobody was there to help..there were no Forums, No internet, trading was a very isolated business.. etc... Hopefully the time I've put in here has been benificial in helping those with an interest in the MP/VP tool... Many participants seem to appreciate that the Profile is making more sense and with Josh, Negotiator, and others posting I believe the general understanding of its potential as a useful tool has been enhanced etc... All tools have Pro/Con..MP no different... even the IBH trade that went bad today had apx 2 pt open trade profit in it.. the profile identified the area and provided rationale for taking a position there. It was not a stand in front of the market trade...none of them are.. but I think we can agree that area was support until it gave way.. What I attempt to do is point out areas of interest and then if the market rotates there then a trade must be confirmed by other market behavior / tools - after that it is up to the market participants... When the IBH trade went bad..there was a short opportunity for the reasons you already mentioned... if the market is long and it fails you will see long liquidation... that also was an opportunity.. that was my reference about going into the close.. I don't want this to sound (textually) that I am advocating anything other than the sharing of tools and ideas... which I assume is why we are all here. With your knowledgeable background, I hope you will share some more of your insights with us... I know we would all appreciate it and benifit from it. Regards, Tom
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Good point...Certianly agree...if retail is long which I was then got to look for long liquidation which I did... t
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Yep...everything looked good until it got smacked at 25.75... Things can get interesting around the cash close also...just watching here to see if there's a set up... Tom
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I've had a better time at my Dentist... and have put my toys away for the moment.. Tom
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VPOC Shift 13:47 ish: VPoc shifted to 1323.00 and the market moved up... don't know if it is sustainable and Delta went up with it... This is how I "try" to discern what is happening in that high VOL Area... 2p we will see... Good Trading, Tom
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It looks ok to me... ..unless it breaks down out of the consolidation.. regards, Tom
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GREAT!! Call some friends..we need some more buyers regards, Tom
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As of 1:19cst we did test IBH just 1 ticked it..so far behaving ok.. do need to see it start coming out of here.. I did add so I am a bit jaundiced.. :helloooo: Good trading all.. Tom
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Simple is Good.. Complexity creates Conflict. Regards, Tom