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roztom
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Everything posted by roztom
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N: My "what is happening now voice is Bi-Polar"..both speak at the same time saying to do the opposite... Tom
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Thanks for the insight... I'm rooting for both of us...
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I took the long against the CLVN 1336.50 as posted earler... Targets 1340.50, 1341.50 & hail mary pass to 48.00.. I will not overstay this one.. Regards, Tom Edit: Actually what I do is not as important as the "why." Any trade can win/lose.. CLVN @ 1336.50 is an important area also it is at mid-point and there is a little Low volume ish notch there on the interday MP... The MP is not the most supportive of this trade.. The Delta which is softeneing a bit is stronger than Fridays showing some urgency to get long..and finally if todays low is not taken out then we could see some upside movement this afternoon.. On the negative from the MP side is that we are building fat this shows acceptance of value..so it is also possible we will not go anywhere and longs may liquidate this afternoon.. So it is not clear at all... but I am still friendly to the long side and I have my helmet on.. ALways interested in how the rest of you are reading it.. Regards, Tom EDIT: I typically expect countertrend rotation during lunch so I wait for my area to be tested and position for a "potential" continuation trade.. after all that's all we have.."potential." T
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With you on that... I still have my long bias but am waiting for rotation.. I gave up my 37.00 long so... :crap: but we might rotate to 36.50 - 37.00 area or maybe not... Delta has been consistently strong... so I will watch for the Profie development.. If we do get going upside target for me to scale 40.50, 48.00 and eventually 52.00.. no clue if we would hit any of them today .. Delta being as strong as it is and the slow grind up I would, at this point, be suprised if they left this an inside day..of course I always get suprised... Regards, Tom
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Agree. I am still biased long also but am flat - which I am ok with. I like 15m bars for the triangles/pennants.. Tom
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He's a market cheerleader - got to support the re-election campaign... not meaning to be political... but we are in the "election cycle." tom Edit: I have gone flat for now... put a few dragma in the piggy bank... This looks like we will be getting rotation possibly to the midpoint... not recommending a position or anything.. This could be a market to also avoid until the afternoon... ... I am going to get a snack... t
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LOL.. that's the problem..I'd like to trade in hindsight... P&L would be much better... Regards, Tom
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Agree with everyone on this... After all this is "speculation" right? :missy: I scaled my 1337.00 @ 38.75..my 2 tics before CLose/NVPOC to reduce my risk.. and now will wait & see what kind of rotation we get... I will also scalp around my position depending on how it develops to reduce my average price..not recommending anybody do this..sometimes I can get my head slammed in the oven... just something I have done successfully more often than not... As Josh pointed out, Volume is light...which means current prices might be fair or even too rich.. which opens up a flush to the downside for the stops as posted earlier...just possibilites.. Tom
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Does anyone want to "speculate" where we are headed next? With the test of yesterdays low and the fact it held brought in buyers... the market is now fairly long.. what is the path of least resistance? Up/Down...? Is the Low of Day more vulnerable now than earlier or will it continue higher and not test that low? I am just trying to get aligned with it.. that is what I do. I'm not overly concerned with getting nicked..just part of the cost of participation... What do you think is next? Tom
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N: I have a CLVN 1331.00 which was a target I was looking for on my early shorts also GLobex low 1330.25 held there so that was my area of interest to downside... It doesn't mean I won't get interested there again.. Tom
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Update: Since I said I would post losers here we go: 1. I sold initially Sold @ 1335.00 Against Fri OR/Open..late as usual looking for a test of Fridays Low/Stops.. Did not get there.. 1333.75 low...MFE +1.25 NO Scales Scratched.. 2. Sold against CLVN @ 1336.50 1334.50 MFE 2pts Got 1 scale.. Stopped on Balance avg loss 1.25pts. 3. Currently Long: 1337.00.. Why... ? 1. Yesterdays Low initially tested... Buyers Aggressive..didn't even get easy stops (so far) 2. Once CLVN @ 1336.50 breached and tested from upside potential for test of Fri High/CLose/CHVN 1348.50 & CHVN 1352.50... just areas of interest. SO what is key so far as this develops? CLVN: 1336.50 + Midpoint & Open/OR etc... Do not follow any of these since I actively manage these and will not be posting unless I have a break.. after the fact... on these... I just want to share with how I read the market.. Some days I read it well and others I don't... This could always be one I don't.. Is it NOT about Right/Wrong/Win/Lose.. it is about forming a hypothesis and paying the price of admission to find out if you're right. Got to let go of the WIn thing - GOT TO DO The Execute/Discipline Thing - just 2 cts... Regards, Tom
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Monday Pre-RTH 2.6.12 Friday closed higher after the NFP Report and based on the shape of the MP/VP it was mostly short covering - this is based on the shape of the profile and also that it was fat/wide. This fatness indicates that we auctioned higher but then stalled out and just churned. However we did breakout of balance... GLobex is trading lower possibly related to the Greek news - blah, blah.. What is one potential scenario we can expect out of several? Lower open..flush late longs...new shorts which is fuel for the next leg up.. (Market needs fuel) Some key nodes IMHO.. CLVN: 1331.00, CLVN 1336.50.. Fridays Close, etc... Gap below...etc, etc... NVPOC 1339.25...etc, etc... NVPOC 1322.75 below Just one of several potential scenarios.. Have you prepared mentally for the potential scenarios? Do you know where the critical areas are that the market needs to test? How will the retail trader potentially lose? Where? Just some questions I ask myself... The market gets all parties involved. After all it is an auction and the market usually tests key areas before moving on or failing... Good trading. Regards, Tom
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I did not "predict" the move for Friday... There is no point to it... But, that being said..Wednesday's high was not price rejection and that was a weak high... Probabilities were up..but I just trade what the market offers.. I try to leave opinions out of it - otherwise I might be trading my opinion and not the market.. Tom
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2:45cst.. Here is a tidbit of interest... Many times the market will make it's next move in the direction of the trend heading into the close or right after the cash close... Now I am flat so I look at these and for me this would bwe an aggressive trade if I wasn't done already.. CLVN tested @ 1338.50 1338.75 low from 12:45cst 1 ticked... Delta going Positive relative to it's downtrend..., etc.. A long set up for a quick scalp ..what I do = just for this is position/scale, get into a free peek position if possible and then go into the close/cash/futures... It can get crazy but we can also have a vacumn which if you are nimble can be very nice. Of course..the door can slam both ways... which is why I must get a high probability target so I am in a breakeven position going into the close.. Update: This one would have scratched & bought a "Happy Meal" ... "free peek". Have a Great Weekend.. Regards, Tom
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Very interesting Steve.. I have never done much with Globex since I am "trying" to sleep at the most opportune times... Sometimes I do scalp around the Globex open based on RTH VA & VPOC but just hit & run... I used to do something similar to you but only day - I would get calls in the night but plans were typically laid out & after hours if we needed to lay something off we had to go to London (LIFFE) or Interbank.. I am a bit gray in the muzzle myself... Regards, Tom
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Yes..I got flat...the darn Delta stinks... There is a lot of divergence there also... Price has been firm...it's a conundrum for me... When my brain goes "tilt" I get out... Regards, Tom
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Yep... In addition...We have been making higher lows on these shallow rotations... (so far) I am still looking to see if we can get to the 46ish area... but will not stand on ceremony.. Regards, Tom
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Free is Good.. I'm watching for some ES rotation.. Regards, Tom
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I am goiinng to repost this since I did it as an edit earlier... I just want to add that 1344.00 -1346.00 area is pure speculation based on how I read bar charts (I'm not going to suggest I even read them correctly) and not based on any nodes... I really don't have anything up here right now..I will have to adjust my Charts for the new level we are at but I have taken some scales and am waiting to see how we behave .. If we rotate before this level there might be opportunities to position..not a recommendation, etc...just look at the VP development and balance areas if they develop and see if you can spot where those areas might be forming... They also can be negated if they fill in so this is not mechanical ..as we have discussed.. Regards, Tom
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I suppose... Trading is like horseshoes..I just want to get near the pin... Regards, Tom
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Yes..we are in the Ozone layer up here... not too many reference points... will just have to depend on sense of smell :rofl: Edit: I do have a "guesstimate" 1344.50 ish.. It is strictly "old school" based on a relic called a bar chart..based on 15m bars - if we take out 1337.00 then it will have failed but it is at least to my eye a Bull Flag or a Pennent.. They do have measuring objectives and I do find them helpful but like all of these tools they do not predict - only guide.. Regards, Tom
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I see it... The test of the open/midpoint was a key obstacle for a swing down..we held which was a tip off to get long... Also after we took stops @ 1337.00 & VWAP there was another spot to get long... We have a open close @ 40.25 so that may be a pause to refreshen or something more... Thanks for the numbers, Tom
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OK...1338.50 current HOD @ CLVN 1338.50 as previously posted... SO what is next? Test of Open & current Mid-point... CHVN 1335.75 Next "potential" Area: current LOD 1333.25 Why? CLVN 1333.25 & Stops.. Just a profile read... as of 9:07a cst.. no clue of course.. UPdate: I got busy managing a position so I didn't press the submit but here is what happened: We DID test 35.75 & Open to the tick. WE are now Testing 1338.50 CLVN... & DVPOC has just shifted to 1338.75..so it is going to be a decision time soon if this will continue up or rotate.. Any opinions? Regards, Tom Regards, Tom
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8:16cst... Anyone who has MP/VP up will see some interesting Pre-RTH Delelopment.. 1. We are currently rotating between: 1333.25 CLVN & 1335.75 CHVN 2. If you have VP up you wil see there was no volume until 1331.50 level..We are currently forming a early balance area there... so eventhough it is too early to make a judgement there is information... @ this point 1331.50 "might" act as support if we get rotating - unless we go deeper... too soon to know.. 1338.50 is the next CLVN up.. will we get there? NO clue right now... The GLobex Bellcurve that is developing is going to define...in my thinking the potential range. Of course we can do anything..just a look inside... We may push lower than 1331.50. I always try to think where is the fuel? Not a suggestion anybody do anything in these areas..they are not actionable... Just points of reference.. Regards, Tom