roztom

I took my scale at 42.50 IBL as prev posted... now working on knitting.. While we have a double distribution here & according to MP theory we "should" play rotations here from short side (which is why I scaled) I am also putting this in context of what the market is trying to do (GO UP) in the larger timeframe.. ALso we tested the key areas as previously posted - soooo Is this the right position to be long here holding for rotation into the IB and potential move to upside? OR is this all it has and the rotation is over? OR will we just rotate around the lower Distribution/Balance Area and go nowhere? When I think of this I just know these are the potential outcomes - that is as far as it goes...after all that is why they call it "speculation" = RIGHT? :missy: I hope this is helpful and some of you may see it completely differently.. I hope you will post your hypothesis and what you think would tell us what is next... Regards, Tom EDIt: I meant to add: What would have to happen for the tide to shift to the long side? What road blocks are right here? IBL/Low VOl Node created on break around 1343.00 also IBL.. Rotation up into OR & Take out open - among others..so this is a critical area to see who will win... - just my read..as off 11:59cst

UPdate: I am holding a long positon off that key area posted..here is the plan : 1. I have no idea if the OTF will take this market back up this afternoon or not.. If this is truly the beginning of something more down we "could" rotate to the mid-pont & IBL the scene of the crime... I will scale there and then consider scalping around rotations which I will not post on - too manic OR just hold the last 1/3 for a potential Neutral Day... It will depend on how we behave on the retracement... that might be all it does - no clue right now... Helmet on... Regards, Tom

Here is a very aggressive trade I am working right now - stalking..just FYI...not smart unless you are agile..it is countertrend per MP...high risk, etc (depending on your timeframe). We have 50% of yest range at 1338.75, CHVN 1338.00, CLVN 1336.50 Yest IBH 1338.50 and a single at 1338.75... These are just very important areas to observe. If rejected then this "might" be area to reposition with overall trend.. I will update but this is one of htose key areas... Regards, Tom Edit: So where might a good target be? Current mid-point and IBL 42.50 - 75ish... If this is a new balance area we "could" rotate and test where we failed OR we could continue and eat the shorts (do get the wronh idea ) Don't know.. That is my plan on this one... If we get into yesterdays IBH then I will be gone..this is very light given the structure... Edit: 10:46.. We tested the single/IBH and CHVN 1338.00.. I added here and am still long... IF we take this out I will be gone...and we certianly can... As you know I am clueless on any specific trade..but here is some context: Yester day the buyers fell all over themselves to buy they were agressive down below off the 1331.00 CLVN and also right here at the IBH...soooooo...where do you think they "might" consider the market "on sale" ? I suggest it "might" be right here... This is just an area of interest... it is also high risk but I just trade it as I see it and have to be willing to be wrong - I can do that as well as anyone... My job - analyze, create hypothesis - execute... (Hopefully I'm not the one executed :helloooo: Tom

Here we go: Market broke to IBL and tested LOD Held... What is market saying? TO me market says since this was News related it was a flush... In addition no volume down there.. DVPOC shifted down..this will either shut off selling OR confirm additional... I repositioned long...same targets on upside as prev posted.. Managing position... Regards, Tom RE Down..FLat..when you're wrong, your wrong...

I will be cuttung down on my posts since I really do question what I posts has value as a learning tool..which is why I am here..not to mention to learn also.. I have repositioned long: against Developing Low Vol notch 1345.75 but the better one is 1344.75...If you look at Profile there is a sharper Low VOl node there and there are stops resting so it can also get there... just possibilities... Regards, Tom Edit positioned as posted..stopped out.. BReak was news driven, have to see how market rebalances..

I'm going to post ratioanle for trade I took off open: Since I could not post as taken, feel free to discount this if you need to... I still am managing position.. This relates to reading MP/VP.. 1. Went Long: Why? VPOC 42.50, GBX Low 42.50, Yest Closing Swing Low 43.00. Opened inside yesterdays range..Exoect test of both sides of OR tested numbers referenced took long. 2. Scaled yesterdays high... and was targeting CHVN 48.50 47.75 target for next scale... DVPOC shift up no follow thru - churning...flat - looking for rotation to repositon... long..so far. This I believe is most relevant to MP/VP... Other than a few here I don't know if I should post this if others aren't using the tool.. LEt me know.. Regards, Tom

Good Morning: ES High CHVN 1348.50 Target from yesterday hit in GLobex. CLVN Target 1352.50 ish area... CHVN out there 1362.25. Today Targets: 48.50 - 52.50. We are up in the thin air so these Cumulative Nodes are just reference points for the auction.. Must use intraday development to manage trade location. IMHO. I'm curious what kind of day you think we will have after yesterday's rejection of the CLVN 1331.00.. and strong drive up... Narrow Range Rest Day.. Trade/Rotate both sides/Chop? Continuation up to 1352.00 ish area..? Good Trading To All.. Regards, Tom

Got scale at 44.75 from my 42.50... did not add on rotation to 40.75..I still wanted to see them tick 40.50 for me to average down or bail... Hsve stop B/E in case we rotate - target 47.75 3 ticks in front of CHVN 1348.50.. I've been getting nicked lately - yesterday my long target ended up being HOD, today I missed short target by 2 ticks... I have stop B/E if it takes me out that is fine... lack of depth of rotation & no stops taken @ 40.50 is strength.. IMHO... Regards, Tom Edit: I only have 2/3 of my unit on since my trade location was close to my targets... I am going for the CHVN target but if I were long from a better location with a full package on I would be going for the 1350 - 52ish level today for my final target but I will be fine with whatever Mr. Market shares with me... FLAT: 1344.25 last... @3:11cst... I squeezed a little out of the turnip...

Agree: The depth of this rotation, developing balance and fatness of MP will be very telling.. it will have to move out of here before too long or else we could get a deeper rotation... IMHO.. Regards, Tom Edit: I do like the rotations to position, take out weak hands and also get the fade traders & their stops in there so they can cover later & takwe the market up... Of course this is all on the assumption they will be on the wrong side and not me.. :doh:

N. Actually I had no reason to get out except I got impatient - an emotional response to sitting at risk... I lost focus since I had laid out 2 scenarios for areas to get long... I "preferred" the lower area since it would be a better location and the stops would be taken out... However, I do believe in behavior modification and that means a consequence for the wrong behavior.. Since I am supposed to be long per my plan I got long again..the consequence would be if I got bumped out I would have lost more and I would be saying to myself I could have risked less... that would have an impact on me... psycologically much more than the $.. A plan is a plan... I was supposed to be long..so I got long.. just my plan and I have to fight to not lose focus... it's that voice that pops into our heads sometimes from deep within that is a trading lunatic.. without focus Mr. Hyde takes over... :crap: Regards, Tom EDIt: BTW, this can still rotate to my seconday location & I accept that...still no clue..outcome is ok...Also if we do rotate - depending on structure I "might" add there to reduce my average price - I do not recommend this to anyone unless you are comfortable with the math..

Since I am posting my trades as related to my personal read of MP/VP with the emphasis on "read" I need to also post when I mess up... I was sitting long at 42.00 looking for continuation... I lost focus and liq the trade... after I did that I looked over everything and I had no reason to do that... Now this may sound illogical to everyone but since I flattened out the trade has not gone bad.. it might and might not... I should still have that position..I put it back on...except I'm now at 42.50.. This is for me behavior modification... I gave up some edge and also increased my risk as a "consequence" of losing focus.. Win lose is not the issue...discipline is.. Regards, Tom

In post # 1404 I referenced 2 areas for me to get long.. 41.50 & 40.50... I got long @ 42.00 Targeting 48 ish with scale along way.. I would have preferred to see 40.50 but it is not up to me... if we can't come out of here I will flatten out & look for the lower rotation..that would be a better spot IMHO... more stops taken out the better... but this may be not going to do that...don't know... Helmet on.. keeping a short leash on this one regards, Tom Edit: 11:33cst I have flattened out... Wanted a bit more juice here..think next spot down might come in play -don't know...

I certainly do agree..the DVPOC shift is a good test and the market just pushed off of it... Since we have volume up there currently 1342.00 it will be interesting to see if/when there is rotation... for a long.. I am waiting for the next bus... not sure if one will come along today.. Regards, Tom Edit: I want to add that I like looking at 15m bars and if we do rotate those are good areas 41.50 - 40.50 ish.. to consider longs if everything aligns... My "theory" is that unless this is a one way ticket to financial independance that the late buyers/breakout players will be tucking their stops under there so the market "might" go for the fuel, get the paper out and advertise for buyers... then again... Tom

50 - 52 ish is my target up there....I'm using oxygen so I don't pass out since we're over 10,000 feet... Tom

I'm just going to post how I am going to approach this market from the long side... The train has left me at the station... which is ok... Looking at the profile and volume areas I will look for areas of developing or current developing low volume below and see how we balance up here.. If we don't get rotation or develop much of a balance area I cannot locate a place to position.. If this turns into a one-way express train I can't typically find good locations..However since that type of market is a low probaility I am now just going to wait for the market to come to me - if it does... I don't know where though.. Lunchtime - if not sooner is a good time for counterrotation...also DVPOC shifts can work as alerts to potential rotation.. Good Trading..hope many of you are long.. Regards, Tom

Josh: I tend to agree with you but if we are rotating around it, it still has value but not as much as standing out alone... Yesterday it just happened to align with everything else we both saw for a long against 36.50.. It was certianly not the main reason - in fact of all the structure at that time it was the least important but it still played in my head as support for the long there.. Thanks for commenting. Regards, Tom

Good Morning Everyone: I am making this post with the benifit of hindsight... I got short this morning and have scaled and am also holding for 1331.50 2 ticks ahead of CLVN 1331.00 The Market LOD so far is 1331.75 so I did not get filled... The reason I am bringing this up is that yesterday I got short in the morning and took the same trade and had posted the numbers -except yesterday it found buyers... Today even more than yesterday it made sense to me that the stops below the marekt needed to be taken - auction theory - where is the fuel.. SO what's next? We got good rejection off the bottom.. Are we done with the downside or will we revisit it later? There was good buying down there & the 15min bar is at full salute... so now the shorts need to get taken out .. Just an update.. Regards, Tom

Cory: Good questions and I may be atypical in my answers.. My Scaling/Targets are based on where Stops or key numbers like a high/low Prev open/close/todays open, etc are located... These are important areas that the market will typically test depending on how long the session has been open and basically the stucture as compared to the previous day(s). Also if the marekt has been rotating on todays timeframe there are buyers & sellers so there are almost always stops on the other side of my position so if I am correct the market will at least rotate to that area before continuing in my direction or failing... The scale is a high probability location (in my mind) to reduce risk initially. Then I lay out longer term targets and these can vary by how the current longerterm structure has developed..If there is an important high several days or a week back and we are approaching it there is a high probability we will test it.. If there is a Cumulative Node or NVPOC there we will potentially test it.. Probabilities: This is where discretionary trading breaks down.. Since I read the market in realtime and decide what to do as it unfolds (which can change in realtime) it creates a random component.. This is a major obstacle to consistency.. That is a signifigent downside... It is easier to execute when you "think" you know the probabilities of a setup, etc. I'm sure there are many here who have specific setups that are very probabilistic.. In many ways I have structures I look for but I am not mechanical and I need to be aware of many subtleties to take the trade. Unfotunately I cannot create any statistical measure of a specific setup except for my P&L and my performance over the course of the trading day... Screen TIme: My trading is a result of understanding how the market works (most of the time) and recognizing behavior. I also can read the Profiles from my own interpretation and I am sure the purists would not see things like I do or agree with it - I'm sure they are right.. for them - that is how this works. I have thousands of hours of screen time.. I've been doing this since the StoneAge and it makes a big difference. Time in front of the screen is a huge asset.. There is no shortcut there. I've also been fortunate to have been around some very successful traders and some now popular indicator designers. I can read the market. I also make mistakes, break discipline and can be clueless from time to time... I also can get into Chop and not stop trying to position in it until I've gotten behind - that's part of it also. Still working on that one.. Getting to a place where you can be consistent is like looking for a sweet spot where you can align your intuitive side with the tools you use - assuming you are not operating an Algo trading system.. I went a bit further..I took tools the were logical to me and reverse enginnerred them to take pieces of them like MP/VP and discarded the things that were limiting or in conflict with my intuitive side.. It is the psycological alignment that allows me to have confidence in what I see. It is also the psycological alignment that allows me to let go of right or wrong/win/lose..etc.. Basically my tools support what I am seeing.. If they are in conflict and I thrash mentally - the inner voice saying long -no short - no long, etc.. I know I have to wait for clarity.. I hope this is helpful and I wish I could be more specific but discretionary trading is not replicable in the typical sense... it is developed over time... Newer traders should take charts of any typical days and look for consistent stuctures or patterns that jump out at you..that catches you minds eye, then align with an indicator or anything that is replicable.. to support it..just my opinion others here may have much better suggestions..I am only saying this from my perspective - you may be entirely different in what you need to do. I don't believe in complexity - been there done that... If it's complex it's conflict.. Just one setup however that stands out to your minds eye and some structure whether a chart pattern or indicator alignment is all you need. If you can isolate one setup that you are mentally aligned with and has some consistent outcome you can succeed - of course then you must execute it... another part of the dilemma... We all tend to think complexity is the answer but IMHO complexity and execution are the problem. Hope this is helpful and not too nebulous. Regards, Tom

Josh: I have a dedicated trading computer and have nothing else on it so I can't post anything from my charts but we both have IRT... I use RTH 405 min bars.. If you set your Chart preferences to 10/11/07 swing high you should get the same nodes I currently have.. I also manually look at the nodes and based on the longterm Volume Profile select the ones that are the sharpest..if that makes sense.. I don't use them all.. I positioned there for a number of reasons but I do like the nodes but also mid-point, LV notch on profile and stops under 1337.00.. DVAL is not that important to me but I do reference it after RE on a retracement - I'm just aware of where it is.. I don't use it as a mechanical setup.. I had CHVN @ 1335.25 under it and when I got short I targeted CLVN 1331.00 but market failed to take out Fridays low so I was working the CLVN as a more signifigent reference point.. for a long. we were rotating around it with a positive skew making higher highs/Lows....the Delta was very strong relative to the volume.. I always look for where the stops will gather as an attractor for the market to rotate to...fuel..it all lined up at that node.. It was a confluence of items that suggested that was the place to get long..the node just gave me more structure..it was definitely not in a vacumn.. Thanks for asking. Regards, Tom

i'm sure this s semantic but I don't like the word prediction. It's a dangerous word..just a personal note..stictly my hangup...If you believe you can "predict" then you create a real psycological impediment to trading success. IMHO. If you think about a "prediction" you want it to be right... Your mind will discount/obscure information that does not support your position..we all want/need to be right.. It is no different if you put your $ down on a trade or post where you think the market is going..you certianly want to be right.. If you tell someone else it only adds to the pressure.. When I post what I am going to do or post a trade it actually creates a psycological conflict..it is actually an impediment to my ability to think objectively. Why: I want to be right. I want my contributions to have value. I want to be appreciated, etc. etc.. BTW, I am not unique..these are basic human needs and emotions..however they must be managed and recognized - especially when they can blow up a trading account..or cause you to become myopic and only see what your mind wants to see..I have to be aware of it and manage my own emotional state.. It is a constant struggle.. If I lose focus I mess up..I can never let my guard down. I have to be very careful... Know Thyself... Know your Weaknesses... My risk/reward structure and positions are sized based on the condition of the market and the area I am leaning on. I do not have a rigid structure for that... I basically look to see what the potential range will be from my entry point - the quality of my entry, the structure that is supporting it.. and how far off the targets are and how confident I am that I will get some scales out... I do not use typical support and resistance but do look at where the stops (Supp/RES) are - the volume which IMHO tracks the behavior of the OTF participants.. CLoses/Opens/etc/ all the typical markers.. where is it trying to go? How good a job is it doing? ... I always put things in context of fuel.. what causes to market to move? The OTF is what causes the market to go directional.. I only try to detect their presence and get aligned with them.. I do read the market within the context of what it is trying to do... I let the unfolding MP structure tell me which way things are leaning and I also watch how fast it moves..if it hits stops how deep it goes.. It is not hard to see where the weak hands will put their stops..if it doesn't get there or penetrate too far then that is market generated information.. I keep referring to todays/Friday's low..to me that was key information to look at the long side - does that make sense? Today.. I was able to work the market..it was tougher than many other days but better than others... One of the tough things I have had to learn is to wait for my locations.. I posted that I wanted to get long on a rotation to 1336.50 over lunchtime (we hit it @ 12:53cst)..that is exactly what I did.. I posted a target of 1340.50..that turned out to be the HOD (no fill) That was my trade - my plan..I could have just as easily been stopped out if longs bailed when we failed to take out Fridays high..but there was no long liquidation... Market is standing tall in the saddle.. right now.. IMHO. I try to read the market..I was short this morning but the fact they couldn't take out the Fridays low on the first swing down told me there was a probability they would take it up.. so I got long and played the long side..also that position was supported by what I read in the MP /Delta, etc eventhough volume was light.. I really don't have a clue if any specific trade will work out... Now I do believe it is going to work when I put it on but I am completely prepared to be wrong in my hypothesis and wait for the next bus to come by... there is always another bus.. I believe when a trade is put on there should be a solid reason for doing it.. if you are in tune with the market you just know it... of course sometimes there is no clue and you pay or stand aside... but you need a process and believe it or not it does not have to be complex. You just need to recognize market behavior that you can act upon..and then execute it with discipline and let go of the need to be right... Hope I did not go off track and that I addressed your question. Regards, Tom

Josh: did you just recently do an IRT update? I heard somewhere it was buggy... Tom

Cory: I'm no quite sure what you are asking..Could you be a bit more specific... I'm slow... Tom

We all get nicked... I strongly recommend you do not follow anything I do... you will not learn to read the market that way - which is what we all need to always improve on... assuming you are a discretionary trader... which I am.. The point of my posting is to attempt to describe what I see, especially as it relates to Auction Theory and MP/VP and reading the daily development... I also am a big fan of longterm and intermediate nodes .. which I post. My target 40.50 ended up being HOD..I did not get filled ended up with 39.00..like football - a game of inches..still rang the register and this was a tough day to trade... I would probably be more helpful to the community if I just post the structural development and my interpretation of it along with some of the numbers that go into the mix.. This is in addition to the other excellent posts which all integrate here in my opinion.. The tools a individual trader ultimatley resonates with are very individualistic... eventhough there are a number of us here posting about MP/VP..I'm sure we all see it and use it differently... we all have our own perceptions of the market and often we see it exactly opposite each other... that's what makes the market.. I'm hopeful that those of you here with an interest in MP/VP are following some of these posts and are getting some benefit from them... Remember - no magic pill... just market generated information - subject to interpretation.. Regards, Tom

One of the difficulties with this kind of market is waiting for an edge of the profile or an area where at least there might be some rotation to work with... I have no clue what this bum is going to do but I am sitting with B/E Stop.. and have made good progress on my knitting... Tom

Thanks N & Josh for the posts.. I always take care of my broker..they do get paid first... I am going to skew my scale to 40.50 and then 41.50 but am sitting here doing my knitting... Tom