roztom

Thisis a rotational market..they just 1 ticked the IBH... :doh: This is a tough trade at the moment... The short worked, the long worked where to now? I still "suspect" we are going to go higher..47.00 ish is my area for longs... stops should be resting under 47.00ish.. the balance area at the top 30% of the Profile... Of course this is not clear at the moment... "except" we did not take out yesterdays low... ..and on a Daily chart this is sitting high in the saddle... Got to watch this rotation... Lunch best time for positioning for a continuation trade, IMHO.. Regards, Tom

When I took that short I read it along with Delta...just so you know after I took it I was annoyed with myself..I do not like to enter at DVPOC in a balancing market.....the real opportunity was a long where I got flat ..in reality that was the entry for a long in the 43.50 ish area..I had a limit @ 43.50..... I dropped the ball on the long..I had a lack of focus and eventhough I posted all the reasons for getting long I didn't... Expensive...:crap: A loss of opportunity is almost as bad as a loss of $... I am going to be getting my cattle prod out of the closet.. I will log in my journal what I did right and the fact that I let the train pull out of the station without me.... I am waiting for a rotation to get long but the market doesn't owe me the opportunity... 47.00 ish might be a spot but the "easy" $ has already been made IMHO... Regards, Tom

I'm glad somebody knows... Regards, Tom

Anatomy of a simple scalp: 10:44 cst.. This is a little trade I took..& I want to just give you guys why and what told me to take it... HInt/Hint..once again MP/VP and auction Theaory based.. If you can look at a MP/VP or even a bar chart I use 15min just to see the bigger picture from the old school perspective you will see that the market is balancing around 1345.00 -46.00 ish area... On VP it is a high volume bar right in the Middle of the RTH delelopement..what is it saying about the condition of the market? (right now) Buyers and Sellers agree on price at the DVPOC/High Volume area in todays development... So what is the trade? I shorted the DVPOC for a rotastion down to the DVAL... nothing exciting but good for 1.5 points... a scalp... Now what might happen? If the market is in balance then it "could" rotate up to the opposite DVAH 1348.00 ish right now... This is a market now where OTF has left the building and the HFT and Daytraders will push around, IMHO..unless structure changes... Keep in mind that we have the failed auction at the bottom so we "could" ending up taking out the high at some point... I find these days a lot of work..scalping is labor/focus intensive but I sometimes will do it..mostly out of boredom.. I not suggesting anyone do it but the VP lets you see the condition of the market & how a strategy would adjust to it..there is still opportunity here... as of 10:54 cst you can see where this thing is currently at..we just ticked 47.75...probably will get to 48.50ish or higher if that failed auction is any hint..eeventually it might take HOD out... Whqat is the smart play buy the dips... 43.50 area might be the paly of the day after this mornings short... or... Regards, Tom EDIT: I am not recommending any trade or positon..I am just reading the market based on what it is saying to ME... right now..it is dynamic so it changes...let's see how this plays out.... :missy:

JOSH SAID: Edit: Interestingly, I pulled up a twitter stream of a VERY well known (you know who) volume profile trader, and around 1pm he was saying that sellers still were in control. Apparently even good traders who use VP must be aware of the market's order flow and sentiment--perhaps in this case he focused too much on the profile, and not what the market was doing at that time? I do not have Twitter... but I have tremendous respect for him... He is down at the Exchange.. I spent years at CME..had offices in there.. etc..not really relevant. I wish there were people like him around when I started.. For some reason everyone is very guarded and doesn't want to give their "secrets" away... There are no secrets - at least in the retail domain.. Everything is out there..Problem is sorting through it without losing your mind or going broke first... Then you have to align psycologically with the tools you select and you won't know why you can't trade with something someone else swears by... I'm talking about my own experience here... You may try to force yourself to use it but you are "buying" someone elses beliefs and have not developed your own... such is the replicability issue.. Once again my experience.. I understand what Cory is saying - completely..Obviously his mind would not allow him to embrace MP/VP.. when we form any opinion - right or wrong and I am not judging here..we will defend it.. dig our heels in..the need to be right, etc..It is the same psycology the forces us to hold a trade when we shouldn't.. It is true when they say the mind you bring to your life is not the mind that will help you succeed in trading.. It will actually destroy you. There was a time when I considered getting a cattle prod and putting it you know where to modify my behavior because my emotions would take over and I would become myopic and have that Voice that I think N referred to take over... "Why Did I do That?" I did EXACTLY the opposite of what I said I was going to do.. I had seen the market recognized the strategy and then found myself upside down or bought the high tick of the day or bailed at the low tick of a retracement :crap: Does this sound familiar to anyone.. Welcome to the Trading Club... BTW as of 10:16cst we have in MP/VP what is called a 1- tic IB + a failed auction.. this is potentially bullish..not to the moon or anything but anything can happen now..it is also possible that we will just rotate in here - go nowhere or take the shorts out later...no clue.. Does it matter? Can a MP/VP'r make $ on the rotations keeping in mind what the market told us on the LOD...; See what I mean... Regards, Tom

Cory: If this approach doesn't do those things..Is your opinion based on knowledge/experience that is difeerent? Opinions are great but I think the purpose of the discourse here or even the debate here, if we should call it that is based on "evidence." If you have other data, evidence or tools that allow you to hold opinions then I assume they have a basis in exoerience and that you have another way to solve for Consistent Profitiability. Saying something cannot or does not work or whatever is fine but opinions without "context" doesn't help any of us improve.. Please share with us how you manage trades, analyze the markets, exit, where, why..what works for you, what doesn't... This is not meanrt to challange your beliefs but to understand what they are based on... In addition there are readers of this forum now & potentially in the future who are looking for answers - not opinions...so help us with some answers. Regards, Tom

CLueless: Here's where "I know I don't know" Now that I am sitting short I do NOT know where we will eventually go... Here is Context: 52.00 area is an area the planet is aware of.. Also we have a Major CLVN @ 52.50.. Coincidence? 2. On the break yesterday we saw Rejection of the lows and rotation back up BUT what did we NOT see? During RTH they ticked the HOD BUT could NOT take it out... That is easy $ that was my last target. Didn't get it. What did that say? Shorts covered but Buyers were not agressive and the market was getting exhausted.. Are the buyers going to come for it again? Today? Don't know.. Will my target be hit based on MP Logic? NO clue. I'm sitting Short after having scaled..Target 42.75... Stop is B/E.. That's all there is to it..some markers.. and knowing where the key areas are.. Will my stop B/E stop be taken? NO clue.. Trading is not easy but do you think this tool might give you an edge..at least where to take a position and also to know where you are wrong? Auction Theory and Volume is the map in my opinion...guess by now you know that it does work - for me and others ... Regards, Tom Edit: 9:31 cst.. I am currently flat.. covered as posted... Now what? CHVN: 1341.00 and some other Micro nodes there.. Is it going to go lower? Will it take out yesterdays low...Buyers didn't seem strong/committed based on yesterdays HOD not being taken out... I am going to now monitor the rotations from wherever they come and go into scalp mode..BTW Scalp for me has to be fat balance areas..if we break the IBL which we "should" than I will be looking for rotations.. If it goes straight to China then it will go without me... I have other targets down below but I took the high probability (IMHO) Scales... Sometimes I'm like a kid who gets excited when I see this work over and over again... Just to stay real..there are many users of this but like all tools that doesn't mean you will succeed... it is just a component.. But I don't use a lot more.. at least not to me.. Regards, Tom

Right On :missy: Tom

Why would I be short? How about: CLVN 1352.50 hit.. main target.. 15min Reversal bar off it with good Selling Delta... Indicating OTF Selling.. Where "could" the market have stopped on the Open Rotation? The high of the 15min retracement@ 1350.00 - 1 ticked it... That's the area to short.. Where would you scale NVPOC 1346.50.. Would you stay short? Where would you be wrong? Probably 2 ticks above Open at top of Opening Range & Current MP/VP HVN 49.50 Potential continuation to yesterdays midpoint 42.50 & VAL... or none of the above... Make Sense? Regards, Tom

Agree on OTF using MP..they are way beyond that but they do perceive value at certain levels and do act together which creates changes in value/vertical movement & the nodes..that is why IMHO the concept of VP works whether Macro or Micro. Good trading, Tom

Some observations: As of 7:33cst right after the Unemployment Claims report... 1. The low of GLobex @ apx 19:54 24 hr clock 1340.75 there is a CHVN @ 1341.00 2. The high of the move 1352.75 CLVN 1352.50.. 1352.50 upside Target was posted here several days ago..by several of us which mean this is replicable.. Is that useful information? Can someone make $ with it? Volume AND Price are key components that make up market behavior... MP/VP have been on display here.. Is it the only way to succeed ? Absolutely not... Does anyone think their trading would have an edge with it? That is the point of my posts and several others here.. While everone has their own take and passion for what works for them - just as I have, I don't think there is any better tool out there that solves the issue of knowing with a high degree of confidence where critical areas are and also with the MP tool you can see it develop on a more micro level as the day unfolds.. Yesterday long off the bottom is a result of the MP/VP tool..my scale was also a result of the MP/VP tool..the market went there IBL and stalled and churned before testing the HOD..I had posted that.. Is that useful information? Can you make $ with it? Is it mechanical? Not really but markets do have repetitive behavior..that is just one of them..a user of MP/VP would anticipate that..is that worth knowing? I submit is certianly is.. otherwise I would be flundering being tossed around by my emotions since I would have nothing but hope & fear to guide me.. Whether we are looking longer-term signifigent nodes from 10/2007 or nodes created as the Day unfolds it is all the same.. Can this Market generated information give you an edge/confidence to execute a trade when the stars align? When we put a trade on we do not know if it will work or if it is only a temporary rotation... to come back against us..at least I don't know but where would you want to step into the market? Does this Market Generated information create an edge? I certianly submit that it does.. Just consider who you are trading against and where the retail trader is on the financial food chain.. Does anyone really think they can use canned lagging technical indicators alone and have an edge over everyone else - have staying power in this business? I've been there done that..Created my own indicators... I actually worked in 1981 or 1982 with the guy who invented Stochastics..an oscillator..we programmed it on an early Apple computer an Apple 2 or 2E. At the time we thought we had found the Holy Grail -nobody else had that tool.. but it is just another moving average derivative... there are a ton of them now.. All I can say is there is no turn-key solution.. I have bought trading systems with good track records, traded them, deconstructed them and threw them away when they didn't work.. Newsletter Guru's - same..on and on... Lost $, blew up my own account, Software pacgages with Elliot Wave/Fibinocci/Time and Price Projections - the list is too long but you get the point - Programmed my own system designs and eventually managed $... I do think I know this business pretty well. But I have checked my Ego at the door. The reason I am sharing this is to ENCOUARGE readers to get serious. Have a plan.. even a plan to acquire the knowledge and tools so you can sort out what is happening in the market.. I have posted many times that "I know I don't know." That has liberated me from needing to be right.. I don't need to be right but I do need to know where I should be anticipating OTF activity based on Context and the integration of the tools that help me detect it. After that discipline, execution, money management.. I want all of us to succeed... since there is really no reason we can't..other than ourselves.. Regards, Tom

I'm not sure what to say.. I have probably lost my objectivity.. it is quite possible that what I post here comes across as mumbo-jumbo or some esoteric philosohical dribble.. Todays trade at least the one off the low was classic.. I stepped in there because of context and the previous days structure... Each day does not stand alone in a vacumn... That is the point..that is what context is..it was on display today and any other day I posted a trade location and all the "thinking" and structure that went with it... One of the reasons I decided to post the trade details here was on the possibility there were some readers who just needed to get a little more..some detail, some thinking, some hope - yes it can be done.. no BS, no "I bought the bottom - sold the top BS" that we have all heard ..here's an arrow on a chart of what I did... blah, blah.. I have worked very hard to try to post the where & why well in advance if possible... sometimes several hours in advance. I really haven't heard of that happening elsewhere - if it is I'm just not aware of it. It takes a lot of effort... I will share why I have done it.. I struggled forever..no help. My logic told me it was possible to consistently make $ trading but I never met anyone who did.. I met shooting stars that burnt out and blew up but no longterm bread & butter retail traders - other than guys on the floor.. scalpers.. My whole purpose in posting is literally to demonstrate that there is organization in the market and with the right tools you can align yourself with the OTF and ride the wave..that is how you make money.. In addition, you MUST know context to know when the market is on sale or too expensive..Today's break is a perfect example of the market being too cheap (context) and having the technical tools - MP/VP to know where that level was... it stopped exactly on a CHVN...and 2 ticks into IBH.. it doesn't get any better than that... that is the point..knowing where the opportunity was and knowing the upside potential and how to manage the risk if wrong... The key to having tools is to know where the key areas are and then to try to position based on what you see when the market gets there... Any tool that let's you know where you are in the picture (context) can work... I really don't know if my posting is just too etherial since I integrate multiple timeframes all built around Volume and I accept that Market Behavior and Volume are integrated over multiple timeframes... My charts integrate volume back to October 2007 and I see it displayed on my charts but that is only one piece..like a wheel on a car..a component.. My conviction is based on many years of struggle, study and investment.. However I am not a crusader for any specific methodology.. I have used a diverse number of tools over the years and in the end it is time, recognition of patterns and persistance. I am not a teacher and I am certainly not qualified to teach anyone to trade..I am and always will be a student myself - that is why I decided to drop in here - to check it out. Comraderie - who else you going to talk to about this stuff? I also have not met anyone who is "qualified" to teach someone to trade successfully... at least not at the retail level... there is an endless list of dream merchants who would be glad to take your $.. On the institutional side that is a different story...but retail traders don't have access to that talent. I cannot deconstruct what I do. I have been asked this before but it wouldn't work otherwise I would have taken someone's course 30 years ago and made $ with it.. Oh that's right - I took a course from Pete Steidelmeir on MP - the MP Guru himself.. I couldn't trade with it. Good guy BTW. - I've got over 30yrs in this. I don't know if anyone really can teah someone else to trade - hopefully it's enough to know that it can be done. The trading business is a confluence of many tangible and intangible elements... Maybe some automated system can be created that is strictly rule based.. there are retail traders who are going in that direction - I can't do that. I have designed trading systems in the past for Fund Management but this was a long time ago and the market edge they had has long gone.. I am hands on... I think it is really tough for the retail trader.. no matter how good our tools get, the "Smart $" is smarter, faster, better, More $, more MBA's, etc... The point is: Seek and You Shall Find... but the answer is in the personal journey that each of us must take to get there... I hope everyone who is determined and serious about this business will invest in a trading self education before putting one cent in the market. The market will be there but your trading $ might not... Regards, Tom

I thought I would add a suggestion on how to learn to trade... :missy: 1. Software: DO your homework and get a software package that gives you the tools you need.. There are many different ones with specific strengths & weaknesses... You DO get what you pay for but they cost relatively nothing today.. I use IRT..cost $90/mo with MP.. It is one of the best platforms if you want to use MP/VP.. while other platforms have MP/VP it is not the same..IRT may be one of the best... it is in how it handles the data & stores tick data... You do not have to reinvent the wheel..there are chart definitions out there that will give you what you need..you just go online and import them..simple..and you have what you need to create profiles. Then you go online and watch everything you can about MP/VP..just watch it..get some books on it..I only got Stedelmeirs book when I learned it from him..actually donated it to a book fair after I abqandoned MP. I think there are better ones now... (I am not a plant for IRT.. just have owned/used most other packages along the way...) Data: Today you can get by with a good brokerage feed..if you are going to use MP/VP you must get tick data..not aggregated or BS data.. You can get it for free from TransAct/Infinity Futures..open a small account Free Data.. I think they also have a trading simulator so you can practice order entry, etc... and get the feel for the real deal.. You can't kid yourself with a printout of your trades. Keep a Journal: Write Down Time, Price, Why, What you did right/wrong, emotional state, was their conflict, did you get angry, frustrated... were you euphoric, did you lose focus... etc.. There a several different areas to rate..Hypothesis, Entry, risk managem,ent, open trade management, exit.. This is a business and you MUST put the time in the make progress otherwise you will not succeed... Finally: With many software packages You can playback the day. I do this almost everyday after I take a break... I speed it up but I want to see what I did wrong and what the structure was and just as important to see what I did right... When it comes time to pull the trigger we don't have the luxury of time..no different than in sports you have to have unconscious competence... Watching the market bounce around without context unfortunately does not teach us anything... we can have a hunch where it might go but where do we take a position, how do we protect ourselves? How do we lose $... constructively? :crap: There is an incredible amount of information out there and unfortunately no turn-key solution. There are a number of good forums and most describe the basics. Remember it doesn't have to be complex... When you become familiar with the tools they become like old friends..but I remember the first time I saw a bar chart - freaked me out. If I can help anyone here, and I'm not the best trader by any means, I will be glad to.. I have paid signifigent tuition to be able to do what I do and I am still struggling with my "self." after the tools the "self" is the main obstacle... Regards, Tom

UPdate: 2:43 I am flat... out 45.50..still a very good trade... I still think this "could" take the HOD going into the close but a few points more with the current VPOC shift and erratic Delta just doesn't make it worth it to me... There is always another bus coming by.. Thanks for your interest.. Regards, Tom

Agree: Kind of like the pin in a horseshoe pit...close enough ...

HMMM..Tx for pointing that out... So far this market is not showing me what I want to see but I "suspect" they will at least take the HOD out and then we will see.. Delta looks like everyone is on siesta... right now.. Tom

FOr MP ers. Wehave the DVPOC @ 1341.25 with apx 69K contracts traded We have a high volume node developing at 1346.50... apx 64K contracts.. If we sit here and the volume builds up here the DVPOC may shift..if it does it will be the moment of truth for this market..on the other hand we might just take the high out and it won't matter... This is market generated information & some of what MP/VP can help you see when you look inside the market... Tom

UPdate: 1:27cst.. So here is what I am seeing (at the moment) rotation is shifting in favor of the longs... The Open & OR have been cleared to the upside..shorts are not going to like this and will start covering... SO what does this structure suggest (potential)? If shorts are caught off-side and there are enough in there we "might" create what in MP is called a Neutral day..What that means is Buyers and Sellers were both active and the balance was tipped both ways... Theorhetically if we get a Neutral then there are some potential outcomes.. (scenarios) 1. We will make a new high this afternoon taking out the shorts... and then rotate back into the profile and close somewhere in the middle. OR 2. Since we are in an uptrend and many longs got thrown over the side of the boat they will run back in... and cause this to close on the upside on an extreme... will advise Tom Edit: Potential targert: Former CHVN: 1348.50/GBX Hi 1348.25ish... Reach: CLVN52.50 area..or non of the above...

Is wash mean Breakeven? Tom

CYP: Tom - I wouldn't say I'm working with MP/VP right now, but rather observing the calls that you, N, Steve, and Josh make so I can digest and start to develop my own thought patterns that will include MP/VP. This could be a long journey... As always, I find most of your posts very useful and I appreciate the knowledge sharing. You guys are doing a good job of teaching, whether you know it or not... Thanks: The best way to get something out of what is posted is to watch the same things on a chart, print the chart as the day unfolds and mark it with what the commentary might be: key areas, stucture.Why an area matters..what it means when it is approached or violated. Learn the terminology... That IMHO is how you can get the maximum yield for the time you are investing... If you find MP/VP interesting then you should invest in some software that would allow you to see it... I traded successfully for years without it but it has given me what I believe is an advantage to see inside the bars.. and identify key areas..especially for daytrading.. Of course it is not the only way to do this and it must align with your psycology and belief system... the tough part in trading among the obvious is aligning the tools. The quest can take an eternity... there are so many dead-ends. I have spent years and $1,000s on research, software, programming, etc.. I can't even remember.. I have run from one side of the boat to the other.. I have never been able to replicate/duplicate what someone else does... I could see what they do but I couldn't "feel" what they do. - discretionary trader think.. Got to watch my positon here.. Reagards, Tom After that it is hypothesis & execution...

QUESTION: Other than Josh and N, how many here are working with MP/VP? If you are trying to learn how to use it I'd appreciate knowing who you are.. Tx, Tom

Sorry..Are you short or long? Tx Tom

Tx: Good take on the current market... IMHO... The Open needs to get taken out for continuation...up "if" it is going to happen we "might"have to wait to this afternoon.. I have unloaded most of my positions right here as posted "and I am sitting with 1/3 left... since I have no clue if the shorts will get squeezed here... Potential rotation down is in 40.00 ish area...lvn there and then - no clue what it will do... especially over lunch. If we just sit around 42.50 ish then we are accepting value ( I guess) and the shorts will have to worry... Got to love this - like a lottery ticket :rofl: Regards, Tom

...i've been playing to position for the ST p2 Tx..Could you explain what that is and what kind of analysis you use to identify locations, etc... Indicator based, Charts, etc? Tx, Tom

Gosu: Would you also mind posting "why" you are taking a position... I do not follow your market but technicals are just about always the same.. we might all benifit from it.. the trades don't help us much without the context around them, IMHO. Regards, Tom