roztom

I did take a 64.00 long... not crazy about it but grinding my teeth..might dump it if we don't get going...:missy: Edit: I dumped it just after this post...watching...

Thumb Twiddle.. I only have had one decent setup this morning and unfortunately it was in front of the reports.. @ 64.00 so what was the point & with the open Close up above 66.50 I didn't see the point... also a secondary entry at 65.00 still no point... So I'm waiting for a rotation which may take all day or not at all... 70 - 72 ish up above so it could be worthwhile .. longs don't seem to be concerned at the moment -sellers may have left the building.. for now

N: Yeah, don't do that. It's probably what the older guys used to tell noobs before squeezing them out! Lol. No seriously that's not funny Well, I posted it from a nostolgic point of view for traders here who haven't been exposed to Floor Traders... this just one of hte quips they said to each other..

Trade I didn't take this morning: I want to post this with the reason behind why this was a Legit setup. I do not always take these..since I am descretionary and I prefer to take them around a report where there might be more participation and follow through, etc.. not a rigid rule but I am descretionary soo coffe first.. Globex IBH 64.50 and Yest high just below, etc... Long 7:34ish @ 65.00 ish... the above were some of the support for the trade..one of the things against it was no volume/delta. also GBX S/L @ 63.75 which miight get ticked so risk below that if we don't get traction. Also Open not too far off, etc. So I just watch.. possible 67.50 objective..just a scalp and NOT taken.. As 007 said "Stirred Not Taken."

Looks like ES CHVN 70.75 - CLVN 72.50 next area upside and Support 60.50 - 60.75 ish (My Numbers based on CLosing Swing Low) - not traditional I'd say plus yest close, etc... UOM 8:55a & New home Sales 9a cst. Good trading all BTW: I'd thought I'd throw in an old trading saying I first heard from CBOT Ag traders for your amusement: :haha: "Got a Hunch, Bet a Bunch."

I'm just coming up for air..am flat... I have a pivot MLVN @ 61.50 - 61.75. Of course 62.25 CHVN right above...Key areas.. Will be intersting to see if we can clear it otherwise shorts still in control, IMHO (for the moment). :missy:

I took a nible on the short side right after the 7:30cst numbers against the CLVN 58.50 Short 57.75 & covered for a small loss... The trade may still work but.. Here is why I covered: 1. Delta continuing to rise. 2. NO real rejection of CLVN. 3. Mkt making Higher Highs/Higher Lows. 4. Mkt seems to be drifting. I was looking for 2 pts and might get it in fact as I write this the mkt is beginning to break towards my target @ 8:07cst... 55.75 /still :crap: Followed my plan

N: Even when you do it it usually doesn't work... I studied MP with Steilmeyer as you know and I couldn't do squat with it... I went to umpteen seminars and courses, books, Tapes, everything but the kitchen sink, software, programming, etc. Courses at the Exchange when I first started... I think other than time in and research the most relevant course I ever took was in classical bar charting.. I learned charting ( :haha:They called it technical analysis) at the CME and all we had was a chart book, strait edge and a pencil.. The text was Edwards & McGee the basic Bible of charting... Trading is so individualistic that even if someone shows you what they do I think unless it is pretty much plug & play it won't work... Look at all the systems, etc that are posted...I'm sure they have value for ideas but even if they are legit, very few can do anything with them. IMHO

GBX Trade Update.. It is now 9:03 cst.. and Both trade objectives were met... Scaled long from 53.75 1. 55.00 2. 56.00 It was initially 56.25 we ticked it several times glad for the 56.00..want to get some sleep Total Scalp.. 1.25 + 2.25 = 3.50 pts.. As usual for me the first target was high probability the second a bit more of a reach... I suspect I would get the 56.25 if I wanted to wait but not worth the time...

N: I also considered the possibility of a Neutral Day... I thought the untested lows would get taken but the move down has been like a stick in mud... Also we had a Neutral Day Tuesday so since they come in three's (I've been told) I thought we would see a little more fight... I have a MLVN @ 53.25 and a CLVN @ 52.25.. Todays low was 53.00 right at the MLVN 53.25...always blows my mind... I still haven't gotten comfortable trying to step in front of the train.. Tonight in GBX I am doing some scalping.. @ 19:20:59ish I I went long at 53.75 against the 53.25 MLVN.. of course now what Edit: I am targeting 55.00 & 56.25..

I want to add one comment..having a large win is a very "exciting" emotional event... When I managed a large piece of a Fund we had substantial volatility in our positions since we were "Trend Following" - it was part of our plan..and model... I had to learn not to allow myself to get too excited when I would come in and see a surge in open trade equity... Inevitably it would be offset by the shorter term swings. It is all a function of timeframe, trade management and a process built on the anticipated volatility. What the market giveth it can take-away as it rotates in the larger timeframe. Newbies, IMHO should not be blinded by "greed" but havve a solid plan that allows them to become consistently profitable.. The timeframe must align with your personality and psycology.. all the elements that have been discussed here and elsewhere...must align.. It is no easy task to "own" your trade plan since most of us probably start out trying to mimic someone elses...

Steve: I thought you were adressing a SIm trade I took on Friday..possibly you were making a general comment... I certainly do concur about trading stat's and that Sim has it's limitations.. I was specifically referring to my personal process of developing a setup and I put it out there. After R&D on a specific setup, Concept, Creation, Playback: I will take it to Sim to see how my read and the indicators I reference respond to specific market conditions in realtime.. Friday was a situation I had anticipated and waited for to test my eye and my tools...in a Chop.. or quiet market... While I don't need or want to trade all the time I do have flexibility and since we have discussed scaling, I am looking at tools to help me adjust my targets if the typical scaling refernce points I use are too far away.. or my indicators I reference flip/flop like a sailboat that has become becalmed (I think that is what it's called). This is specifically related to my initial first risk management scale... I understand this is not what you do if I am not mistaken.. So, let's agree to disagree on the value of testing using simulation.. After all at least for me, I will not trade a setup that I've developed live until I can find it's weaknesses and under what conditions it might fail .. I look at Sim as a trading shakedown cruise and I'm certianly familiar with it's limitations especially re: fills, slippage, etc. Do you not see where it is an advantage for a trader to use it as a development tool or for a rookie to create some Stat's to lean on? DO you discourage your students from Sim? If your response is specifically about mixing stat's Live vs. Sim then I certainly concur.. I don't believe that was the context of my initial post... or how I referenced what I was doing in Sim or Why..

Monday/Presidents Day GLobex: We have discussed here many times VP and Nodes... Just to be clear I did not take this trade..I was sleeping.. @ 2:15 - 3:300am CST ES tested a CHVN at 62.25.. what was happening...support/accumulation, etc.. That turned out to be the low of the Globex session - coincidence? If you were trading at that time would you have recognized that as an area of interest - waiting for the market to come down to that area to see what the reaction might be? Might you have taken a position there knowing that this "might" be an ideal location to "attempt" to put a trade on? If you slept through it, based on how the market moved off that area what information would you now have? If you wanted to participate after this test how would you locate your trade to benifit from this ? After an initial impulse off an area what is probable? Will there be a rotation back against the trend as some fade it or others take profits from the initial impulse? If so what will this look like? Others who missed the initial impulse move will be waiting to get on the train...their buying will cause a swing low to be put in bring more buyers in leaning against the S/L @ 4:20a @ 64.50... Now it gets interesting: ES rallied then pulled back apx 9:12 cst to 64.00 even taking the S/L by 2 ticks before moving up...Does anyone not think that there were stops resting under that S/L..does anyone not think that is NOT where your stop should be? That is where I DID go long for a scalp... I might get 2- 3 points a quickie considering we close early but I am going to ring the register - why? The market offered it..I just had to recognize it.. In trading the planets need to align... Also there are typical behaviors you can anticipate from a typical market - rotation.. the market rotates to attract buyers and sellers..it also is drawn to where the business is..in this case where the stops are bunched.. is it intentional? I really don't care... If I am on the other side of that trade I would be targeting that S/L to cover a short. What is the market doing? UP.. How do you want to position: Long... Until it changes: Long or for counter-rotations to flush the financial toilet.. The weak hands get their pockets picked... as just referenced... Targets up above? CHVN 70.75, CLVN 72.50... Hope you all have a resful Presidents Day.. I am working on my trading.. doing playback simulations on some new tools I am working on.. After Concept, design, static testing, then Playback, Sim, then if the numbers are there - live.. that is my process.. Takes time. Good Trading To All

Steve: I guess since I mentioned a Sim trade here from Friday you might be referring to me... so I am going to respond with that assumption... if I am wrong then please disregard.. I am a fulltime trader..I have been for many years...as a upstairs Trader funds manager, then as a currency trader as I previously mentioned on a US trade desk for a early Hedge Fund, etc and then an independent after I retired from that side of the business - trading income has been and remains my primary source of income. Still I do experiment and revisit old curiosities. In addition, as I get older it becomes more difficult for me to execute parts of my dicretionary trade plan...fatigue, focus, etc. I still enjoy the mental stimulation of trying to improve.. a work in progress. I am trying to add a bit more structure around my existing set ups.. Friday afternoon I referenced a specific trade that I did on SIM... it was experimental. I guess I could have not disclosed it was Sim so I would not have this response from you. But what I do here is try to provide some pragmatic guidance that I believe will be helpful...I reference an experimental trade and how I managed it...what the objectives were, why, etc.. The SIm trade was successful. Since this thread is visited by individuals with varying degrees of experience and also those still seeking consistence and success I have attemped to show how some tools can be used.. If you have read my posts you already know what they are just as I have also read yours - which I do enjoy and benifit from BTW... you are causing me to revisit some concepts.. this is good. Fact is I have been completely transparent here... I specifically took a SIm trade on Friday to test a lagging tool that would not function well in realtime in a chop non-volatile market.. I specifically indicated that in my post - upfront. Just as you say on your posted static charts that the reader has to read the market in realtime to see it unfold..that is what I do to test something. I have studies in static, then replay and then live.. and I posted as such.. If I have ever inferred that I am a hobbiest than I think you might be confusing me with someone else.. If your comments were not directed at me then please disregard this response and let's continue the discourse.

RE: The Target item vs.. The Larger move... This is not a counterpoint..If that approach is where your belief system is and you execfute it profitably it is right for you.. If you define yourself as a Daytrader then large move is in the eye of the beholder... While a Swing Trade can be profitable the risk is also proportionate.. You can't get one without the other... When discussing reward there is more to it then catching the big move.. Of course there are big moves but trading a highly leveraged instrument assuming you can't or don't hedge it or spread it off leaves you open to open ended risk..just the way it is... If based on a trade plan and risk capital if that is appropriate - why not do it...I take no exception to that.. However, in the daytrade world..(onl speaking for myself) targets are really a risk management tool since I focus on reducing or eliminating risk as my first objective - getting as close to a neutral risk position ASAP.. which is why I scale.. There are a lot of variables of course... If you have shorter targets with a high probability of achieveing them then just trade more contracts... I have a friend here who reguarly does 20 - 50 lots ES... he does not hit the long ball - no interest... Takes out a good $7 figures a year... short-term Targets.... He has a membership so his cost is not material which is key... While I can hit short targets with a high probability my costs are substantially higher retail so it is a real challange.. so I am forced to go for a longer swing but even then I use a target... If you think about it if you try to stay in for the longball (Interday), most of the time you will eventually get taken out and since you have to give the market room you will leave a good % of open trade $ on the table... Of course there are days where it is a one way ticket but those are less than 20% of the time... Typically if the market goes on to a signifigent interday level and it rotates I can always pick it up again.. I am probably typical of a small lot trader my unit is multiples of either 2 or 3 lot so if I trade 6 or 9 I trade them the same way except when I have three lot units on typically the third is managed as a longball.. still with a long target and how many 20 pt ES days do we get? Assuming I did not buy the low and cannot sell the high I am probably in the 12 - 15 pt potential range but that is a huge ES day. If I scale against/ahead major obstacles along the way..assuming good trade location I can also participate in the higher probability outcomes... This is where statistics come into play... Before I daytraded I was a position trader in Currencies, Ag's, Financials etc. S&P's I was a swing trader..so I am very familiar with the big move point of view.. I do not trade scared..but I put a premium on risk management... Scaling is just part of that side of the equation.. I also wish to say that it is much harder to trade a 1 lot successully then 2, 3 or more... since it's an all or nothing deal... If a daytrader has a statistical probability to get to a specific initial target say 1.25 or 1.5 points or has a market structure like a recent Swing H/L to shoot for then they can reduce their risk, get into a risk neutral position and then work the trade.. I am certainly aware of "Cut you losses short let your profits run" but I think that statement does not address at all the probabilities of having setups that have high probabilities which can be combined with just putting on more contracts... Cost + Loss/slippage = Risk... Manage that side with a positive % Edge and then it is just pushing the Sausage through the grinder... then hitting the long ball can go out the window.. After all we are talking Net, right.. If you have a 60+% probability of getting 1.25pts on a paticular setup or 50+% of 1.5pts without your stop being hit first assuming the numbers netted out would you trade 10 - 20 lots or go for the long ball? Which one do you think nets more (and sleeps better)? Just my

Tx Steve, good explanation..What makes trading so interesting is the endless ways one can approach the market and also manage positions.. I do not hedge or leg my positons. In the "old days" I did trade around my positons in currency spreads.. As a daytrader I do not try to go for the long ball but can and do catch large moves if they are offered.. On the other hand, with few exceptions there is usually rotation to get on a move if the train leaves without me... If not there is always another train... My targets are based on market structure, nodes, etc.. I always try to visualoze where the oppsing team will get caught or at least the weak hands on the other side might capitulate..that is typically my first scale... This past Fridays structure was pretty easy. Get long off the bottom as I previously posted and then there were 2 swing highs that could be tested... with the potential for a close or test of the HOD which is what happened... My scales were based the probabilities we would rotate there.. The first scale was high probability, IMHO..the second scale and test of HOD less probable..so for me the first scale was based on market structure and then I just managed the trade based on how the market developed... While it was like watching paint dry and it took all of 5hrs to play out..I had no technical indications it was failing..so I stuck with it... This is rather simplistic but I always want a scale to reduce my risk, get into a risk free position ASAP and also psycologically get some positive reinforcement.. I am really a rather simple trader.. I trade in multiple units of 2 or 3 lots depending on volatility.. I also will scalp around my position if we are in a strong trend and we get some rotation so I can reduce my average price... that's really all I can manage since I am discretionary.. works though..

Steve: Thanks for the shorter timeframe... I can read the chart ok and especially the later one bar test/rejection towards 8:30 is very clear... While we use different methodology to determine "areas of interest" and it may be coincidental that they seem to align quite often I believe I had posted a CHVN at 55.25 (Trading computer not running at 5am cst). Based on that bar structure at 8:06 - 8:09 and then the break higher out of it I would have been a buyer or if not, definitely after the later test towards 8:30. This is assuming some of the other tools supported it... Delta & also just how those bars "look/feel" as they're being developed. I did not grow up trading in the Algo world..I dealt with program trading, etc. but not what we have today.. While I can't identify the specific behavior of what is creating the market at any specific time I am able to read the activity of accumulation/distribution as it is happening or where it may happen again.. The VP and the Nodes help me with that.. Steve: Can you touch on Scaling. Do you scale at targets - I think you know that I do or do you use a target based on volatility, etc. ? Thanks for the concise explanation and charts...very helpful..

Steve: I loooked at your chart and the locations you outlined are exactly where I took a short and later the Sim Long I posted... @ 56.75.. I don't know if I can slice the entry any closer than that..but I would like to but I am not using limits for entry so I give up to get.. Is this chart a 3min that you posted? OPPS: my 56.75 was later in the morning... apx 10:30cst.. Tx

I just want to throw in that today was strictly responsive selling ... looking that the rotation up was short covering...longs are comfortable.. SO far we are accepting higher value and the 62.00 area was tested with more upside to come... (eventually). Agree on todays low as not being tested... however I think that it will be at somepoint to clean out weak hands after a move higher possibly Tuesday or so...

Josh..just looking at today in general.. Like you I figured Responsive Selling early then I assumed fill the gap, and Yestersyas upper balance area and Globex VPOC in line with Yest VPOC thought there wouldn't be much downside especially since we broke out of balance. I also have CHVN at 55.25 so it seemed everything lined up... I have 53.75 as a MicroLVN... but the VPOC and CHVN are more signifigen since they are aligned... I took a Sim long at 56.75 which I posted about earlier...

UPdate on SIM Trade: I "finally" got my 58.50 Sim fill :haha: for a wholloping 1.75 pts.. and have adjusted my next target to 59.50..based on volatility though I think we could get to 59.75ish... not splitting hairs here - or are we? Stop B/E but depending on what I see I might just exit SIM stage left... One thing with this type of day, it is hard to sit with a trade whether SIM or Real... This trade has been soooo slow but then again it is a good day to try to read the market through the noise.. IMHO. UPDATE: I exited my last SIM @ 59.25 +2.5 for a total of +4.25 pts... per 2 lot.. The rational being if you look at any of the interday swings when you can expect rotation.. after all Swing/H/L are Support/Res, etc..and on any rotation there are stops on both sides of the market..those were my "logical targets." I am a practitioner of Auction Maarket Theory..the markets job is to "facilitate trade"...get all sides involved - advertise for buyers & sellers, etc... That's it for me.. Hope you all have a good weekend.

N,Josh & Steve: Thanks for the comments on T&S... I find I can't have too much coming at me so I don't use it since I can't read it and watch the bars, Delta, etc.. - Multi-tasking anyone.. Today I also grabbed a few points on the short side to fill the gap, etc and am knitting... Like Josh I believe, I am now in Sim to try to work on my rotational scalping.. I figure OPX might be about as bad as it gets so this is a good market for me to try to read and Sim... Indicators, etc tend to flip-flop which is what I want... The activity is usually on the open so this is like an extended lunch time trading... I figure if I can work a market like this & come out then I'll have my bases pretty much covered... One thing is by end of week I am mentally caput so it is hard to keep focus..but that is why I'm doing it.. BTW, other than the levels we all seem to identify MP/VP I also target the other side of the 1/2 - 1/4 hr swings since I figure if everything sets up that we have a good probability of ticking those areas for stops... especially going into luch when I have observed when we get counter rotation... TO give you a sense of it I am targeting 58.50 -58.75 level..and then 59.50 - 60.00 ish & the bottom of the Open swing on MP. It is the DVAH and that's where we might get some stops "if"we rotate... then again on OPX everybody might be cocktailing already... :doh: I also of course use volatility bands for trade location and the magic 8 ball... If you look at the current market @ 11:38 cst we have RE down, etc... In my mind I "suspect" the downside has been fulfilled - at least for now so the path of least resistance is an upward rotation- definitely counter to the RE but also along with the larger trend.. Not expecting much 2 - 3 pts on a few contracts isn't bad... with tight risk control.. SO Sim it is... If anyone here is scalping I'd like to discuss it - tools, multiple timeframes, etc. I allow for more slop when I am entering on my larger swings... usually I give up 1.25 -1.50 off a Swing H/L when I enter.. so I am trying to slice the salqami thinner but as you know that has problems.. I am trying to use a 233 t chart to read the candles at my areas since the scalping doesn't give you much room.. the entry is the issue for me not the exit so I am trying to see if I can get better execution going in without getting faked out in the noise... I have trades 233t before and it can be manic but when we get to the edge on aa envelope in a larger timeframe - for me 1.25R I like to look for a reversal pattern on the 233. So if any of you have a good multi-time frame integration I'd appreciate hearing about it.. BTW, I am using dual BB's 20 SMA 1.9 & 2.45 - just to try to get ahead of the crowd... I also use another time frame that aligns with the 1.25 20 SMA so the bottom of the lower time frame BB lines up with the 20SMA 1.25r. I use that for repositioning with the trend for a continuation trade.. Of course when everything aligns like VP Cum Nodes or interday Developing Volume areas it helps.. I am not necessarily targeting the opposite sides of the envelope I look for the stops and anything else where I think the market will be attracted to... Sorry for the ramble but the caffeine is wearing off :missy:

Thanks Steve for the post.. When I use an unfiltered T&S strip it flies so fast my head spins.. Appreciate the comments. I will check out your thread..

Yes very understandable.. Tx.. BTW: I'd like to read more on that..could you direct me to that thread..tx Could you discuss what you do with the T&S strip when price is at your area? Also do you filter T&S with a minimum number of contracts biid/offered for it to show? Running to dinner tx

Tx Steve.. Looking forward to it..