roztom

If I may offer some thoughts...these apply specifically to my journey.. This is a complex business and unfortunately there is an overwhealming amount of educational material out there and redundent technical approaches... What's worse many want to go the route of Vendors/Guru's to advance their understanding and learning curve.. while this is a logical path it is also littered with broken dreams and false hope... There is no plug and play or turn-key Holy Grail. One cannot slap some indicators on a screen and trade mechanically using the common off the shelf tools... While some here may be doing it successfully I submit it was not plug & play..and their choice of tools evolved to match their psyche.. I have written elsewhere that we cannot mimic someone elses trading plan and hope to be successful. When you read the forum you will see quite a few "systems/tools" that some traders claim to use successfully. Some do, some don't. What is true is that most cannot replicate it. You can get ideas from the forums and until you understand how a tool works it won't work for you... In addition indicators, at least in my experience, do not tell me when to initiate a trade only where I am in a cycle or swing based on my timeframe and then I step in front of the trade..indicators lag so one must recognize or read the market and it helps if the indicators you do use coorborate what you think is going to happen but since they lag they will only support you after the fact... Just my opinion...it is also dependent on your timeframe and the volatility of the market... Just so you know..there is no Holy Grail or secret sauce.. we all have been to the mountain and will never stop trying to improve... that is the nature of it... As someone posted get organized...create a business plan - this is a business. How will you acquire information? How will you measure your progress.. What are the basic elements you need to assemble.. how will you prioritize them. If you were building a business from the ground up how would you do it... This business is like manufacturing...Losses, Comm, Overhead, etc are cost of production. You must know your cost and what your yield should be..To obtain that you need a process that throws off a yield.. You must know how to achieve that yield. Contrary to what many new traders think, complexity is the enemy..your mind, if you are a descretionary trader needs the minimal input necessary to make a decision.. Trading is a multi-tasking endeavor..you need to minimize the inputs to minimize decision-making conflicts. I do not have the answer but I started with Classical Bar Charts.. at first they looked like an EKG but now it is second nature... I built my trading from the ground up..Ibelieve that was the basement.. So figure out what you need.. if you don't know then the forums will guide you since all of us started at roughly the same place.. Good Luck - this is the best business in the world,and the toughest..

I want to share one of my trading challanges..it surfaces intermittently which makes it even more challanging than the typical issues we all face.. N: I am actually quite adept at trading most market conditions. However, accuracy becomes much more important on a narrow range/low volume day... What happens to me on a day like today (something I must improve on) is I will see the conditions, read the market well, acknowledge it to myself, write it in my journal and then go back to trading or managing a position and leave that information out... I don't mind sharing this..What makes it even more difficult for me is that it is inconsistent. Some days the same information sticks in my brain, others it doesn't... Friday I saw the MP thicken up..this is a market not doing a good job.. no gas... I read my entries almost like a surgeon..ok so far... I did some scales and was unable at the HOD for my final exit.. my lapse of concentration..I actually had one tick before HOD limit order... but moved it - one tick left 3.25 pts on the table.. pilot error.. With all the chop that was the difference for my day... also I could have protected better when the trade failed and either taken a little or scratched... pilot error.. I also had a long going into the Cash close with a target 1 tick before the mid-point.. Neutral Days will typically return to test the Mid-point unless there is a change in trend, etc. Friday's Neutral was longs bailing. I went long off the bottom. I bailed on the trade about 5 min just before it hit my limit..for 1.25 pts - and lost 2 ticks on the trade - pilot error... When the dust settled I did not make $ for the day..not a big $ deal but too me it IS signifigent for my overall bottom-line and the errors - It is the errors, evnthough the financial consequences were minor the errors are signifigent since I am striving to reduce those types of errors. It was not the market. It was me... the good news is I know it. I know why and I can correct it.. The bad news is I come back to this and have not yet eliminated it from my trading. It pops up, especially when my focus isn't there.. unfortunately I do not recognize it while it is happening until I review the day... I think it is very difficult for many to successfully trade these type of days..there is not much room for error. It can be done, however, and I do it when I am sharp.. it is the lapses that are the enemy.. and as I like to say - "the Enemy is Me."

Yes, there wasn't too much there for the taking... In fact when the dust settled I bought my broker a Happy Meal... that's about it... Sometimes I do things I shouldn't the "enemy within." At the HOD I actually had that number but somewhere in the back of my brain I thought they'd one tick that prev HOD...not... instead they ticked my price... 67.50... unable.. :crap: That is the kind of error that can make the difference between profit and loss for the day... I'm pleased to admit I did not make $ today eventhough I had good trade location and read it well... on the other side I just worked for my broker and had a very modest loss for a tightly wound day... Hope you all have a good weekend... I will be doing my playback review this weekend..so I can improve..

That's pretty interesting... We should discuss that a bit further...

Trade Update: I took the loss @ 63.25 That's it..got no gas... On a Neutral Day potential for a mid-range close in the 64.50 area...

Trade Update 64.00 long... I am still long @ the moment 12:51 cst... I have a MHVN @64.00 that is where the marekt should hold and also where I would have added for a long..I did not add I moved my stop to 63.25... obviously I can get popped but 64.00 looked like an easy area to rotate to and besides where can I take a .75 pt risk on a trade? If I had scaled up top like it would have been smarter to do, I wou,ld be adding right here for a continuation...not a recommendation, etc..just human interest..

I get it Swing high swing lows..I do that now interday.. no extended lines... I wonder what the chart would look like - pretty busy I'd think..

Trade Update... MY 64.00 long ticked my next scale @ 67.50 & was unable... in hindsight..given the thickness of the profile it would have been smarter to give it a tick and put my limit at 67.25... but such is life... now it will get interesting... We should have a rotation now to get others like me who were anticipating a new high - shame on me for thinking like the pack... I am protecting a B/E stop & if it gets taken that is the way it goes... HOWEVER, we are going to rotate and depending how it goes I may scale back in for the afternoon trade.. however I do stand a chance of being stopped..depending on how it all looks I might have to wait until 2p to re-engage..not sure right now..will have to see how it unfolds.. :crap:

I'm not sure I know what a naked fractal is..

Not sure I completely understand... Are you saying you don't need the TPO indicator to see the VPOC shift on your charts?

What is a developing VPOC? Can you post an example if it isn't going to cause you brain damage... I can imagine if it colored the volume so you could see if it was getting close or show different intensity so you could see the difference more clearly instead of having to move your cursor over each price.. I don't like the heat thing... but that would help... BTW: We just ticked 67.50..OF COURSE - nothing done... :crap:

Trade update I am still sitting with my 64.00 long looking for next scale at 67.50... Stop B/E on the remainder... doing my nails and posting here since it is slow and the trade is on autopilot... :missy:

BTW: I still haven't updated..it's still in Beta I guess.. Are you using any of the new features/indicators, etc?

Thanks for that.. I also watch 15m candles I can read that very clearly for the bigger interday picture..especially when there is rotation where the seing lows are for the stops..I align that with the VP to see where the volume is... Yesterday Long..2.23.12 If you look at yesterday VP there were stops resting at 57.75 area.. I had gotten long in the 52.00 area and scaled out and then got long aagaiin at 58.00 3 ticks off the low of the rotation... I always anticipate that the market will probably rotate to get the weak hands out before continuing the trend... This is where I look to position for a continuation trade..If you look at 15m bars and VP you can see where that would align, imho... I also looked at the prices down there to see where the low volume price was (1356.50) so I knew that was the area to watch. In addition the RE up in the F period was violent...a lot of competition for ES... just a brief overview of what puts the trade together and then there is the actual setup when we arrive..

Good..so I'm not revisiting Woodstock.... BTw: This thing is so limp.. I have a resting order at 67.50 and then one last one - the "Hail Mary" pass... ...just in case we get going this afternoon up towards that 70.00 level but if you consider an extra 2.5 pts it often seems not worth the trouble..might be better to take it all off at 67.50... especially with this mornings action.... clueless.. but that's the plan... One of the things I've learned to accept is "I know I Don't Know." eventhough I am very confident in my entries and scales... the only problem with the entries I am really floating in space when I put them on since the indicators I use lag so it is only after the fact that they support what I've done... if I don't get it then I will sometimes just bail and take a loss... Maybe I'll figure out how to do this better someday..but indicators lag so much that it can increase my risk by lagging the entry by 0.75 - 1.00pt so I step in front based upon my market read and I also have areas I wait for the market to come to.. it is waiting for the confluence of factors to align.. By using sense of smell I can keep my risk slippage off my area usually to a point or less vs doubling it or worse with indicator confirmation...hope this makes sense... That 64.00 entry today is a good indication of it... twice.. :crap:

I have seen a tendancy for the market to "generally" move on the 1/2 hour... When we tested 64.00 the second time when 10a cst hit the volume came in and we lifted out of the consolidation at that side of the range... At 10:30 ish we moved from 65.00 area to current HOD... It typically happens a few minutes in front or just after... If I have a position on that is just threading water those times can often make or break the trade... no scientific or anything..just a casual observation... Lets see if J period 11:30cst does anything..

I just edited my post to update just before yours.. N: Have you ever looked at the clock as I referenced in the 1/2 hour increments and the market expanding its range? I haven't formally analyzed it but I wonder if youv'e seen a pattern?

While I have 70.75 next up on the hit parade I "suspect" we might not get there...can't explain why unfortunately... we have 67.50 recent high up above and and GBX high @ 68.50.. and this market is just drifting up... so I am going to be looking at those areas to go flat eventhough there is more potential upside .. :missy: Edit: the reasoning is we have the recent High of Move at 67.50...Highs will be tested..there probably are some stops there AND you will get the breakout crowd so when I think about where to scale I have to consider the fuel on the other side... Also this market looks like it is in park so unless there is more buying this afternoon then it is possible we won't go anywhere until this afternoon or not at all - no clue - of course... Just some Auction Theory... Also this weekend we have G-20 meetings...I don't personally keep an eye on fundamentals other than important reports, etc. but others do so we might see some squaring up ahaead of the weekend and if we don't get going on the upside some potential rotation down... purely "speculation" on my part...

You guys who can read the DOM, I can't - just too much coming at me... Also I did look into MD but once again too much input - I try to keep it to as little as I need and even then I wish there was less on my screens... BTW, so far they ticked my limit @ 66.25 for a scale and OF COURSE nothing done yet... :helloooo: Edit: Got filled.. :rofl:

N: What do you use to see selling being absorbed at that 63.00 pullback?

I understand your point.. I always feel I can get back in and I don't mind taking a nick to manage risk.. Actually I should not have bailed on the original 64.00. It actually ticked an important number @ 63.00 plus I made an error..I did not highlight a MLVN 62.75 on my chart - which was there but I didn't see it which was support - my bad... fortunately it was not an expensive error... I will always post what not to do as much as what I do... As I say the enemy is me... :crap:

I want to update my 64.00 long just for a little strategy... There is a close at 66.50 that has not been closed... missed it by 1 tick..I "suspect" we will test the current HOD 66.25 and possibly 1 tick it..so I am targeting a scale there for 2.25 pts of course might take all day or never to get there.. Also if we can clear this congestion I "think" 70.75 area might be possible..again this may be a tough day if we can't move out of here ..

N: Not sure if I read this right...avoiding a scratch before a trade.. ?

Minding the Store here: Went long again at 64.00 no problem for me... afer giving up a tick on the previous 64.00.. If we can come out of this range then 70''s are possible as previously posted... I am keeping short leashes on these since we are currently in a range but currently the bias is still North.. Also something to note and maybe take a look at your clock and the range expansion on the 1/2 hours... Steve: Is there anything to this?.