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roztom

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by roztom

  1. Thank you for your responses. This is very helpful.. Would you mind commenting to what extent you had challanges aligning your process psycologically so you could execute it consistently? In my experience I developed systems that I could not execute since they created so much emotional noise, etc.. so not only did I need to develop a trading process but it had to align perfectly (closely) with my emotional / psycological makeup so I could execute consistently. Have many of you been down this path? Also: Re: Multi-timeframe approaches with the same Trade Plan... Ex. I trade Short-term Rotations which I manage with bands and if I see a directional move emerging I leave runners in place and manage differently..In other words I let it rotate against me since I do not want to risk giving up good trade location on a shallow counter-rotation... In fact if it rotates enough counter to the trend to an opposite side of Volitility envelope I may add to my postion - just like a continuation trade... hope this makes sense.. Are some of you doing this? TX
  2. I get unsettled with rollover days also... since the volume doesn't come in until the day gets going and I don't trust the Globex Volume, etc... I I still do read the charts, the old fashioed way and am long and sitting as we float up... I have a NVPOC ESM @ 62.50 and a CHVN 62.25...have no clue what to think about it but that is my target for this trade... a few ticks before... Hope you all are having a good day...
  3. Nice Short...I started short @ 47.00 & also dumped it..then resold @ 45.75... all together then I traded around rotations all the way down... This Globex rally is suprising.. looks like we got our squaring up in front of the report right after RTH close... Dem Bums...
  4. To Clarify: When I use the term scalper I am not referring to someone who trades for a few ticks... I am actually referring to ES points just to give a frame of reference... Scalping to me is using a Bollinger Band or Keltner channel to Define a potential range..just my way of looking at it.. In ES that can be a number of points... I do not believe the typical retail trader can "scalp" especially with the high costs...
  5. Thanks for visiting this thread.. I am curious as to what the most popular/successful Daytrading timeframes/approaches are.. This question is not about whether you use a Tic Chart or Range Bars, etc but the criteria for the target range - targets/objectives of your trade. There are many different types of trading timeframes. For the interday retail screen trader: 1. Trading for Several Points/Possibly Envelope Extremes - Rotations, etc. (Retail Scalper/Not Comparing to Floor Scalping)) 2. Longer Interday Swing Trader: Going for the chuck of the range of the day. All In/All Out or Possibly Trading Several Rotations. For each of these is it All In/All Out or Scaling? I would also appreciate if you wouldn't mind sharing Why you have chosen one over the other. Is it alignment with your psyche, probabilities of hitting short-term targets if you are a scalper, Profitability, Risk/Reward Ratio if you hold for a chunk, etc. In addition, have you integrated both approaches.. Retail Scalping and also managing a positon interday? How, what is different? While there may be other strategies I think this would make up the bulk of daytraders.. Thank you for your time and consideration.. I hope this information will be helpful to those trying to find their "sweet spot."
  6. Looks like most of this was stolen overnight..so now??? Continuation trades on rotations..? I am going to be waiting to see if we get responsive buying down here after they carry a few carcasses out... Got to watch the afternoon for a potential rotation/Neutral Day but anything can happen.. possible squaring up in front of tomorrows reports...
  7. I did take a long aginst the 52.00 area for a scalp... targeting 55.00 on a rotation... So..now... is the play to close the gap? Next CLVN under is 47.75 ish... and CHVN 49.25ish... edit: Got to 54.75..GRRR..bailed bought me coffee... :missy:
  8. Looking at it this morning there's the 52.00 I was looking for yesterday... one day early and a dollar short... Hope you all have a good day
  9. I'm suprised they left the 61.25...I would think they would potentially get some paper up there... 63.00 is a CHVN and also todays profile LVN.. I have a micro LVN @ 61.50..
  10. JOsh: YOu know I wrestle with the hindsight issue all the time because I do recognize market behavior that sometimes means one thing in the context of it's timeframe but nothing to the overall trend.. It is this seperating out what is happening at the time vs after more data is on the screen and then acting appropriately. With descretionary trading I think it can be much more difficult especially since perception can shift quickly - once again the potential to get caught up in the trees and miss the forest... I always see things so clearly in hindsight.. but I have to remeber to only hold myself accountable for what I do in the present.. I am trying to build more structure in what I do since I can easily get caught up in a micro trend and abandon a good trade location... On the other hand, I have to be willing to allow more retracement back against me if I am stretching out my timeframe..if that makes sense.. Today is an example of my staying short and not scaling out near the current LOD and putting the position back out again..I'm just holding my short.. Josh: I saw where you got long... what was interesting is that was where I should have been covering/scaling down at 58.50 - 59.00 area. I then had another short set up on the retracement: SO what did I accomplih by NOT scaling? I left 3.5 pts per contract on the table and I could have put them back out again... and still held my original position still short... Anyway..that's my story ...
  11. Hi: I jst crawled out from the bunker..got long this morning after the report... got popped.. Had to leave the screen & missed down draft... I got short on a retracement to 62.00 area.. am holding & did not scale at my initial target... 58.50... I might regret it but I am looking for a test of the low down there at 57.00 area and a target CLVN 52.50... Good trading all..
  12. Speaking of letting it run..how is that last position managed? Since you will see reversal patterns ... I am asking about the money mgt side of it or it is time-based, or a larger timeframe structure, or B/E and ride to the close or target if there is no majior reversal etc. ? Thanks
  13. Steve: How do you manage this last position? Do you just let it rotate until it gets to your next area - there will certainly be reversal patterns along the way? DO you shift to a higher timeframe and look to major swings to define your trend, and use higher timeframe reversal patterns and pull the microscope out,etc?
  14. Same thinking here.. I would have scaled 2/3 of my position at apx 64-65.00 area and then wait to see what we have - same thought process here.. unfortunately the :haha: "easy $" has already been made on this one...
  15. Hi Steve: I also have a CLVN sitting at 1360.50... unfortunately I was sleeping at the time.. Now to see if there is an opportunity for a continuation to the next upside target or find a spot to take the other side... that 60.50 was a beautiful area to get long... Good Trading Today everyone
  16. Sometimes Steve it is so uncanny... I took a long Globex trade off the open Sunday night.. right in the 67.50 area and scaled out at 69.00..just a scalp...this may sound strange but I will do a quick scalp like this just to practice and make some change... I did lean on VAL from Friday at 66.75 and also I had a Volatility Envelope Extreme and then I saw a nice candle bar I liked and then ... just a scalp... I find I can scalp Globex usually for a few dollars as you said.. it typically moves slow enough so I can actually do some other work while monitoring the position... assuming a slow night like we have now... Another thing I like is to read the market when the typical lagging indicators aren't worth much..keeps me sharp to "read" the market... That's how I originally learned, classical charts and "feel." The "feel" was actually a sensitivity or instinct to what todat we call the "auction theory". It was intuitave for me. I couldn't frame it until I learned MP. As I mentioned I am doing some programming tonight so getting a quick scalp off is always good for the psyche... As far a holding a position in GLobex, I have enough trouble sleeping... Thanks for the post, I almost fell over when I saw your chart...
  17. As we know the open often sets the tone for the day as those early orders are processed until we see a test one way or the other it is hard to see who is dominating... Other times it is good for a scalp if it reverses on you... Statistically I do not do well trying to get a position on the open... What does work for me is once I see a drive out of the gate whether it is an open drive or a open test reverse I can quickly get on board if I am patient on a retracement either back to the mid-point or some other area like the first minute range, etc.. I also look at the volume profile at the prints to guage if there was competition at a specific price so I can see where we might retrace..all in the micro sense... of course Globex Trend, and overall market direction, etc comes into play. Nothing new here on that... I am going to be diligenting working on actually putting more visuals on my software as mentioned so I do not become myopic and miss obvious conflicts... I noticed in my journal that I've slowly been making more errors getting into shallow count-trend rotations only to have them push back on me for a small loss... I believe this is part of the loss of mental processing capability - a new factor for me... especially after all the years of doing this. This is why a Journal is so important. I see it happening more often - but it can be fixed... just need some rails to run on... Good trading..
  18. Steve: I also like the open but the first 5 min in there it seems it can be demolition derby... Of course if a key node is nearby then all is well... One of the areas I am thinking of revisiting is not to trade as all the setups come by I typically get tossed around in the chop and I have to get whacked a few times before I realize I'm in it.. It seems to me Morning trade up to 10:30 - 11cst , Countertrend rotation during lunch, then 2:00 ish on for the finale... BTW: Steve do you trade GLobex? I often will look at it if we have a report @ 7:30 cst since we can get a bump & potentially get a lead on the RTH... I typically can get a nice scalp off around 6am cst... not usually a lot but a few points... pays for the coffee... :missy: Now when you mention getting older... hmmm I think it is actually a factor.. :helloooo: I appreciate everyone's contributions here.. and I will be visiting reguarly but probably not too much during market hours unless possibly over lunch. Best of Trading To All...
  19. Steve: Thanks for the eariler post on taking the larger swing and the stop question I have been looking at for runners.... The Bernanke break as discussed was very interesting... I was long into that, had scaled and was sitting with a runner and it got stopped B/E.. I did not get short on the break but got long after the extreme low.. I have been focusing on my trading as I found that my focus is dimenished when I am posting and since I am an active postion manager I have missed some critical items. I am not as a good a multi-tasker as I used to be... I am working on a bit more programming on my IRT platform since I am a visual and with some of the trend indicators I use I am working on programming them so I have more automated visuals to keep this in my awareness since I can become myopic on my entry chart and lose the forest in the trees... you don't need to many errors to turn a good day into poop. This is something that has been happening more often lately, might be a function of ability to maintain focus - so I have been working towards reducing the load on my multi dimesional awareness and having visual markers flag them for me.. I am not a system guy but have a "systematic" process. I am still reading all the posts and am getting value from them..thanks everyone.. When I off-load some of my technicals so it is easier for me to pick them up I will get more active active again. I do want to comment on MP Value Areas. I do not use VAH/VAL for a trade as support or resistance but if a previous days VA is penetrated than I look for the previous VA range to be tested and look for either Prev H/L or a Cumulative Node or VPOC to be tested.. It all depends if we are trding in a balanced fashion in a trading range. Good trading to all.. BTW, one of the things that is difficult for me is to test out ideas.. I have to do things manually and I can't program what I do.. What I do is look for ideas or refinement after the market, then in playback and then I look to see it in realtime. Often indicators play tricks on you in realtime.. flip-flopping, false positives, etc... so I want to see where the inconsistencies lie.. programming. I am not a rigid sytem guy but I am trying to off-load some of what I watch to visual flags so I can conscentrate elsewhere.. That's my update... Good trading All...
  20. Thanks Steve that makes sense.. It isn't the $ on the table it is the breakdown of the execution of the plan... As far as leaving something on in case there is expansion that is a secondary item I am trying to sort out... One of the items I've been revisiting without resolution is the runner.. and how to manage it.. Thursday last week when we had that explosive upmove is a great example... I took my scales on the way up - fine but that was just before the aggressive Range Extension... then I had to wait all day for a rotation to get back in..All fine on that except I missed the meat of the day. In addition as you know managing that runner is another issue.. Does one set the stop B/E and take it out at the close? Trail? etc... You know many of the traders I know just load up and scale quickly... they make up for the move they don't get by the volume they trade for a short high probability target... After all CP comes in many different forms... I hope we can discuss the variables to volume at short vs. longer targets with fewer lots... I know you go for longer interday targets like I do. Any reason other than cost not to tighten the targets up to a primary initial target all in/ all out with more contracts? Steve, what is your take on that..from your perspective?
  21. Thanks Landser for acknowledging and THESE COMMENTS ARE FOR EVERYONE..just one persons opinion... The forum is full of the same questions.. You will note that many try to automate what they do.There are toolboxes out there that will support that approach. I really cannot comment too much on that approach since it didn't work for me, at least not as a daytrader... but I have seen posts so apparently it is being done.. once again takes a lot of work to get anything to work for you... One of the major issues to this business is for whatever you do to align with your psyche... That is an area you really need to understand... it is probably the "achielles heal" for all of us. If it doesn't fit you won't be able to execute or you will constantly change it. This is an indication of non-alignment and conflict... The thing about this business is there is no one way to do it.. if you go on the web or Youtube you can see an endless parade of approaches and they might work for some but not for others.. I seriously doubt there is one "best" indicator/tool that would be voted most popular..I truly don't know.. I have been at this for 30+ years.. I won't bore you with the journey or what I have done over the years to succeed in this business since it is continually morphing as the technology and the markets evolve... One thing I can say is that what works for someone else did not work for me..I've tried it. Seminars, books, courses, software, programming, system design, black box systems, published systems with track records,BTW, most of the stuff didn't work or failed upon execution - even with track records.. much of it is BS. None of it was mine - I couldn't mimic the trade plan but they were all BS..even if they were viable at the time...curve-fitted trash. Unfotunately you have to pay a large tuition to find out...save your $. I initially studied charting at CME - that was the first thing I did.. not saying it should be anyone elses..we used a chart book, straight edge and a pencil back then - no computers...:doh: Reading charts is necessary unless you automate and then it's just math. All the above added value but was NOT the solution - at least not for me, etc. I could go on & on... I'm not saying that I didn't derive value from it but I did not get the answers I thought/hoped I would. I even worked with some well known traders that many would recognize, $7 Figure guys... what we all dream about - not entirely realistic unless you have the capitalization for it...I thought that would be huge. It was good to know it could be done but I couldn't replicate what they did. I worked with indicator developers whose tools are in every trading tool-box today - thought we found the Holy Grail, several times over- NOT. Many still try to use them since they are popular. Just because they are in a software tool box means nothing. Somehow because it is there it must work - right? However, I didn't realize at the time that the psycology was the obstacle - It wasn't mine. I certainly got ideas, but could not replicate what they did. I spent a huge amount of time and resources trying. It is what most of us initially do. What else is there - right? Try replicating Michael Jordan or Tiger Woods. :helloooo: I recommend that you learn about Auction Theory... there are books on it... You need to understand what makes any market move... Why does it go up & down..who are the participants that move the market? Why do people lose money? Who makes it from those who lose? How do you not join the group that lose? Most do...why? This is a facinating business - a multi-dimensional chess game.. I wish I could share more with you but really you should spend time here & read. However, you will always come back to the same place.. This business outside the market & tools is about you.. and you really won't know who you are until you face your own demons. The socialization we get to live in the real world, the values and beliefs that made us successful are actually obstacles to success in the trading buisiness. Our beliefs, things that we were taught as children, etc are actually the things that will cause us to fail..Trading is counter-intuitave..You must be ok with losing money..something we are taught not to do. You must avoid needing to be right, something we all want/need. It goes on & on... I hope this makes some sense. I know when I started out I would hear this but couldn't relate to it... until I recognized it in myself..I thought "not me," "I'm smart enough"...Sure.. It took time even to recognize what they were talking about.. I'm still working on it.. Best of Luck on the Journey..this is not any different than becoming an athlete, fighter pilot or surgeon. The difference is much of this must be self-taught and discovered for yourself..not easy but worthwhile.. just don't think that there is an ATM machine waiting out there for you... that you can easily access. There's much more to it than that but it IS achieveable. Just my 2 cts. Best of Success to ALL who read this thread..it is achieveable but doesn't come for free...
  22. Thanks Steve.. The lapses in conscentration are what get me... I've tried buttressing it with check lists like a Traders Cook Book, with different receipes for different parts of the trade - then it sits on my desk, reminders, sticky notes, cattle prod, etc. which I fail to remeber or even see in front of me but when I have a lapse like this I am not aware it is happening.. Sometimes it feels like tunnel vision like I am not seeing the periphery and all the years of trading go out the window... When I did system trading the rules and process were built in and while there was some discretion at least in the parts of it for legging spreads or trading around it for the currencies I traded or the Swing Trading in S&P, they were much more structured but automated. The currency trading had a chassis it was built on and we allowed discretion for trading around a position interday...it skewed the numbers but we monitored the efficacy of the legging as a seperate trade - if that makes sense. As you know with the spreads while it has it's own money management set I would lift one side and that increased the yield but the trade management was a function of the spread - on/off..etc. Daytrading creates different challanges for me and I suspect some conflicts are built in from past learned behavior that conflicts with the daytrading process..maybe it's "trading baggage?" As far as taking a break, I really can't do it... I have to wait for my locations and I don't know when the market will get there... I usually get continuation setups over lunch when they rotate for stops and then try for a new HOD assuming we have directional trade - my entries seem to be the best part of my execution..but Friday it broke down on open trade management..YIKES, anything else? :crap: As far as the clock & taking breaks, I really like to see how the market behaves at different levels.. Since I read market action and don't initiate trades on indicators in a traditional sense that many try to do - I do use them to confirm after I put the trade on since they lag. I am concerned that I will lose the feel for what is going on... just my need to try to stay in touch with the "feel" of the market so I don't believe your suggestion would work for me.. appreciate your suggestion though.. This is just one of those things - If I could manage those issues it would make a huge impact.. Friday was not signifigent because of the narrow range but if it happens on a signifigent day then it does have a major impact since I do have the discipline to wait for the market to set up... I haven't found an answer to this since it comes and goes... it does seem to relate to fatigue though... I think moving my Limit order for exit 1 tick when I shouldn't have and being unable because of it shows 2 things: 1. My tools work well..basically I would have scaled at HOD (one tick in front) no guarantee of course - actually I "thought" I'd get one more tick. "Think" is the problem..my tools told me to put it one tick ahead - it would have been the HOD for a limit @ target... the little voice of greed kicked in - all for a tick - now we do know that is a NUTS thing to do.. 1. My process works - I believe I have adquetely demonstrated that here. 2. It is the mental part that intermittemtly breaks down - that's it. Maybe there are some more steps I can take to buttress that area. I know it is not unique to me.. and maybe there are some answers. I think being discretionary which allows for flexibility allows this to come in to the process, even on a subliminal basis.. On Friday morning as I wrote here, before we got goingI though "if the market got going" we could test the upside of 1370 ish... Now was that resting in my subconscious? Did that thought cause me to do something different? I don't know where some of this comes from. I do know where the 1370's came from but once the day developed and we didn't get a breakout I knew that was out the window but by then the error had been committed. Obviously this is a complex issue..there are amny variables but what gets me is not processing the information correctly... I think referencing Fridays low volume 6pt range and the fact that coming in I suspected a false breakout (which didn't happen by 1 tick), is part of the issue. As you can see I am trying to sort through what was in my mind even if not on a conscious level.. I find this interesting but I can't put my finger on how to recognize when Dr,. Hyde takes over - at least not yet. If anyone has dealt with this type of thing and has some suggestion on what worked for them then I'd appreciate it.. Fortunately I do enough things right most of the time and am CP but how many days can we afford to leave $ on the table for no reason but ourselves?
  23. I typically don't know what kind of day to expect until I see it develop.. I do know where the possibilities lie but until I see one side or the other tip their hand then I don't know .. the path it will take... As far as trading that kind of market, while it was difficult - they all are one way or another. I really didn't have a problem with the market..The market was not what I referring to.. My lapse of focus was the only reason it wasn't a profitable day for me, not entries, reading it, not all the things we spend the majority of our time mastering. It was the ultimate challange in sucessful trading.. managing the mind - not letting emotions or behaviors from the real world bleed over into the trading world which operates seperately from and typically conflicts with our socialized behaviors. I suspect fatigue might be part of it..I'm not sure but I post it because it is the truth and is real. Also quite often there is much posturing and BS on these forums.. I don't read almost anywhere someone talking about their personal trading challanges. When they make an error or describe their personal challanges... The reason I post it is because it is part of the business and if I relax too much, in spite of a well honed skill set, I can take shinola and turn it into poop... Those who have the same challanges whether newbie or CP will benifit from knowing that the struggle really never ends and we have to always mind the mental store... I do not have to worry about being profitable. I DO have to worry about not executing my trade plan. If I execute properly and have a losing trade that is a winner for me... and I go on. If I make errors like I did on Friday..that is the true loss... that is an alarming situation to a trader, imho. I don't want this to sound bigger than it is..it is not a huge deal to me but lapses like those come and go... Others might benifit from hearing about what I go through in spite of many years in the business and that is why I publish this...this imho is the real world of trading... it may not be anyone elses but it is mine.. I publish this to be transparent. I am not a rookie but I do make mistakes..typically only a few a week... but Friday was way out of the norm so that in of itself makes it a mini-lab for me to examine... After all, if I pay tuition by turning a winning day into a losing one..even if the amount was insignifigentl then at least I can gain something from it. Hopefully readers here will get to see that "easy street" isn't all that easy - all the time. At least not for me.. maybe it is for others... This is another part of the business that must be managed and is probably the most vulnerable area - especially for descretionary traders.
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