roztom

Thanks for visiting this thread and sharing your strategies. While many work on the entry to a trade if we can't exit efficently and manage the trade sucessfully to a profitable conclusion we will not be long for this business. Please share what you have found, through your testing has yielded the moost consistent results. Also if your strategy is specific to your timeframe. Swing Trader might be different from short term daytrader or Currency vs. ES. While timeframe, etc is important to a trade I am hoping you will share your exit strategies and based on testing what seems to be the most consistent process: Some ideas: Reversal signal in your timeframe Trailing Stop Time Based Stop Target Volatility Stop (ATR) Trail Behind Moving Average Market based target: Previous High/Low, CLose,Swing High/Low, Gap Fill Fill/Supp/Resistance/Other Standard Deviation/Volatility Band Other If you use other processes please share. Thanks for visiting this thread and sharing your insights.

Personally I don't think it is worth considering - but that's just me.. Good Luck

I'm not sure what the point would be to want to assume you might be filled at your limit when the probabilities are you won't be..at least for system design you should always assume you won't.. As far\as the Que, that is not quantifiable... If you are designing a system it must work under adverse conditions not ideal ones...

Well, I always assume (right or wrong) that the smart money knows the news and they act accordingly... While a fundamental event can impact the market or a report, etc... I stick with the weegie board... The fact the market failed and I did not ring the register on my long position from below is the way the cookie crumbles... We all certainly discussed the development of the market, the flag, what it was doing, what it needed to do and what a failure would look like... This is not a counter-point to anything written here... My technicals were in neutral and then I had a sell... There were also warning signs with the pennent..it went too wide and also a false breakout at at 1168.50 and then a double top there...that was it... When we started breaking down I had to make a decision...grab some points or let it break & see if it held the open... I suspected it was the flush and that we would rally after the cash close, which we did... To me all this was long liquidation which N & I discussed earlier... That is the nature of the beast.. Today was a very good day. Structurally it was very tradable.. I did not take the short... As usual I will be reviewing my trades this weekend and continue my research... I am still working on exit strategies/trade management.. to me they are much more difficult than entries.. I do replay so I can see if my realtime interpretation still stands up after the fact. I also look to see if there was ambiguity or conflict and want to be sure I did not ignore what the market was saying because of my position... On this specific trade I followed my plan... if the structure failed I would get taken out of my position... it failed... I got taken out... Not the ending I had hoped for but it was certianly part of the possibilities... as discussed..

While I personally keep an eye on the VWAP, I do not use it in my decision making process. However, if the market is in a trend and it rotates to a DVPOC which is aligned with the VWAP, IMHO can be a strong support area to positon with the current direction of the market. After all, they both represent Volume.. I have observed this but do not have any statistical data to support it.. and I typically do not enter at the DVPOC unless it is a coincidence...

As of 12:34cst I am oscillating betw buy/sell - We are deasd in the middle.. the microscope says we are going to break to the upside and I have added to my long... I am averaging against my long from down below... this is tricky here since it can still fail - of course... and my indicators that I watch are moving like a sailboat that is caught with no wind..and the sail is just luffing...

BTW: We have been discussing pennants, etc.. A pennent is a triangle on top of a pole and as N points out if it falls out the bottom it is a failed pennent.. As of 12n cst if you look at a 15m bar you will see the consolidation and the compression/coil..It is energy building up for a directional move..The flag pole which was the early drive is the basis for which way it should come out.. also you can measure an objective off it. FOr some of you who don't use this method it is classical bar charting. For ES I like 15m bars... Other than a Daily chartthe 15m is an important chart to me to see how the day is developing and especially where stops will cluster...15m high/lows are swing high/lows - right? So where are the stops? Think -where is the easy $.. Think where you would be "most" comfortable pulling your stop to? Think where everyone else will pull their stop to... Then - Don't Do It.. put your stop somewhere else based on a different criteria..this of course is based on your timeframe, risk management, etc.... FLag Measuring Objective: You would take the distance of the vertical pole and measure that distance from the lowest part of the declining tops of the pennent from where it breaks out... I am not a breakout trader, too much risk for me which is why if I suspect a pennent developing and it aligns with my other tools I always want to try to position on a rotation to the bottom side of the pennent..Today we only have about a 2 pt range, not enough for me to scalp but often if the swings are wider I will trade the rotations while waiting for it to breakout.. or add & hold if there is enough range in the pennent so I can pull a stop up but so far no room - based on how I trade...

I know I don't know... but I am long so I am "wagering" new highs..of course when? I am on the edge of going back on a short-term buy signal: Dqancing on the edge of the knife now so we will see.... :missy:

N: I copied my VPOC comments on the VPOC thread.. I'm not sure how to split the discussion between 2 threads and may just have to stick here unless that one is going to be more VP... What do you suggest?

Agree. They are a good structure to work with... I am still in a short term sell which, of course can turn into something more on the downside... If someone "knows" I hope they will share it woth me... I don't know how this will resolve itself... so far I exoect it will resolve to the upside - unless the structure fails aned we know that is possible also... I believe in trading that is about all we can know... If anyone has a better way of evaluating the current ES market as of 11:35cst I'd appreciate getting your take on it... When we go into the slow/lunch period I often look for a counter-rotation to position for a continuation... the fact it happened early may be all we get or maybe we will get more... That is what makes a ball game right? :helloooo:

Yes we are standing tall in the saddle today and we made a higher low against the 66.25 ..looking good to the upside... I hope there are some other tools to see inside the VPOC Initially when it shifted I saw delta go up and price churned and moved up towards the HOD then the delta dropped and we rotated down.. from 68.50 to 66.25. I wanted the 66.25 to add for a continuation but there is not enough range for me to add since current HOD is 68.75... If I don't have enough room at least several points I let it go... The good news on this is reading the market and understanding the auction process and WHY a market rotates and also what are the conditions that signal potential rotation (VPOC SHifts) and also what behavior to expect and where... for example the stop cluster under the market.. of course if the buyers are not still there and we do not continue to make higher lows on rotations then all bets are off... This is where the financial rubber meets the road...

Today seems very much like a flag... I am playing it that way eventhough my tools are in a short-term sell for this rotation... that is where sensing where stops are resting helps to define where the outer edge of the pennent "might" be... SInce nothing is absolute we always have to know when a structure fails... sometimes these pennents turn into symmetrical triangles and you get your brains beat in with the narrowing chop.. Today, however, looks, smells like a strong pennent with an objective potentially over 72.00 ish.. I have a CLVN at 72.50 and HOYear at 71.50... I suspect that is where we are headed... today

I copied this from the E-Mini thread to get things started.. We should discuss VPOC shifts... As you anticipated with the shift the market will either push off to continue the trend or rotate since there is a stalemate at that level so the market will move out of there one way or the other... I watch Delta at VPOC's to try to see if selling is being absorbed as in this case at 68.00.. I do not have a definitive outlook since I do not typically initiate or exit a trade based on the VPOC shift... however, if the selling overwhealms the buying then we can expect the rotation we discussed for the market to advertise for more buyers with better prices down below possibly where there was low volume and competition for price otherwise it is being absorbed... and after some consolidation/coiling it will build energy for the next move with the trend... One thing I look for: I watch 15m bars to see where there might be some stops building under the market and then how far is the next area.. In a strong market I expect the easy stops to get picked, especially if they cluster near some recent multiple 15m bars - 66.25 - 75.. as of 10:29cst If everything lines up I look to add in those areas.. At these times I just wear my helmet since it can do either...

I want to add why I like 15m Flags... If you look at today's RTH chart you will see the drive up, consolidation with lower highs forming the top of the pennent and then the probe lower on rotation for the easy stops and then potentially the bottome of the pennent is put in... I see these a lot in a directional move in a trending market like we have today in ES.. not to mention the breakaway gap under us from yesterday.. I "anticipate" the potential for 72.00 area or higher this afternoon "if" we come out of the top of this pennent... just a holdover from my bar charting days..we'll see..

We ticked 1366.25 @ 10:38:54..

We should discuss VPOC shifts... As you anticipated with the shift the market will either push off to continue the trend or rotate since there is a stalemate at that level so the market will move out of there one way or the other... I watch Delta at VPOC's to try to see if selling is being absorbed as in this case at 68.00.. I do not have a definitive outlook since I do not typically initiate or exit a trade based on the VPOC shift... however, if the selling overwhealms the buying then we can expect the rotation we discussed for the market to advertise for more buyers with better prices down below possibly where there was low volume and competition for price otherwise it is being absorbed... and after some consolidation/coiling it will build energy for the next move with the trend... One thing I look for: I watch 15m bars to see where there might be some stops building under the market and then how far is the next area.. In a strong market I expect the easy stops to get picked, especially if they cluster near some recent multiple 15m bars - 66.25 - 75.. as of 10:29cst If everything lines up I look to add in those areas.. At these times I just wear my helmet since it can do either... :missy:

I certainly see where you are coming from on this one... I wrestled with exiting everything at the 68.75 area... but...... I am holding .. I can never tell how much rotation we will get, however IMHO your thinking is sound at those areas... same reason I'm looking for rotation to pick up a continuation trade down below.. We are aligned... helmet on... Good Trading...

I got long this morning ater we tested yesterdays close and scaled just over GBX high & before 68.75 close .. Holding last runner... Not sure if done for day or we will see more buying... (If you know will you PLEASE tell me... :doh: SO far "F" period is good RE and Low VOlume area sitting @ 64.75... + Current Mid-point as of 9:49 cst... I am going to be looking to add on rotations assuming everything stays glued together... Good Trading...

Many trader wannabee's think they make money by "plunging." This is nothing more than gambling - flipping a coin except the probabilities are less than 50 - 50%. As was alluded earlier... staying out of the market is a position. Waiting patiently for a set up and then stepping in front of it is where we create the opportunity for ourselves... Somehow trader wannabees read these cliches but think they are for someone else.. I agree with the poster who talked about flags. I love to see a flag developing.. on a 15m chart.. I know that the stops underneath the developing pennent will get picked off on the counter rotation. I wait to position there. Patiently wait for it.. Not only can I have a measuing objective off the flag but I can align it with other targets my methodology identifies... If I am long from down below I use the flag to add to my position or if not create a continuation trade... I trade ES and I find that if I give the day time to develop I do much better than plunging in during the opening range.. While I have other setups I love continuation trades... I do not need to buy the bottom but I can often sell near the top.. In the end it is about making $, not to trade for the action... We don't need many setups to be profitable..only one initially - executing consistently is obvious. Does it really matter if we even have only one setup we have identified? If it is statistically valid just up the contracts on it.. & you will succeed. I have a trader friend who made the transition from floor trader to screen trader. He basically trades one specific setup, all in all out.. he has the advantage of an exchange membership so his costs are minimal. He executes 20 - 50 lots at a time..several times a day & makes $7 Figures a year. Why? He only needs one setup to be consistent..that's all any of us need.. Success in trading is not obvious but having a specific plan as another poster said with entry, risk management & exit criteria that is repeatable is almost all you need. I am assuming you are adequately capitalized and aligned psycologically with it. Whatever plan you must "own" it.

Unless something is different, when price trades "Through" your limit you are guaranteed a fill... when it ticks your price that is a whole different matter. For system design you must test with the assumption of worst conditions..you can never assume you were filled at the limit unless traded through..

It is MP.. evolved to see it with volume as well as structure... It is a piece of my puzzle... there are many books on it and posts here at TL... Not easy and not a system or stand-alone.

Thanks for the post.. I do not use bands alone.. They must align with several indicators and also Volume Profile which I use to identify activity/volume at price. I look for the confluence and then step into the abyss.. :helloooo: However, I'd like to keep this thread on point if I may... What Timeframe Daytrader are You and Why? The why refers to: Risk Tolerance Probabilities of specific targets Psycology Do you "need" a lot of short term winners? Do you scale out? Do you build a position on rotations & have targets? Do you let the market take you out? Trailing Stops or ATR Stop, etc. Do you exit if you have a fixed profit target? Are you all in all out.. ? Why is important, IMHO.. It speaks to profitability but IMHO also to psycological alignment. I apologise for the questions but I think the answers will be very diverse... and educational for all of us. When it comes to successful trading, as many experienced traders have written here previously, you cannot mimic/replicate someone elses plan... yet a numer do make a living at this... most probably do not..but would like to.. let's help them a bit.. and ourselves.. When I examine my own journey, my eyes roll back in my head when I think of what I've gone through, financially, emotionally and timewise... Trading is like trying on an unlimited number of shoes until you find the ones that fit just right... We can all learn from each other. Trading is so much more than indicators - which is where everyone starts but that is not the answer it only opens the door to generate the questions...

Holy Guacamole.. We hit 62.50 and I got my fill at 61.75,,, As they say - "Even a blind Squirrel falls over a chestnut once in a while." :rofl: It's nice when it all works like a clock... I also added on rotations so built a nice position.. there was a VP LVN @ 57.25 and IBH there so I added there... took no heat... Still working on varibale timeframe strategies... manually doing numbers - :crap:

I studies EW and actually used Tom Joseph's Software Advanced GET for a year about 12 years ago. As EW users know (I assume) EW is always clear in the rearview mirror... You don't know what wave your in until it unfolds & whether it is a minor or Major, etc... based on your timeframe... I could not trade with it but it did help me see market structure a bit better, if only in hindsight and as another poster said it gave me a frame of reference for aligning retracements... If we have a flag developing on say a 15m and the pole of the flag would be a wave 3 then the retracement wave 4 would be where I would add or enter for the wave 5... of course is it wave 5 of the minor wave or are you entering at the 5th wave of bigger wave 3? If you know what I mean... I really see the same thing in a bar/candle chart and (for me) I do not worry about FIB Projections though I know some use them.. A deadend for me...