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roztom
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Everything posted by roztom
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VPOC: Currently @ 10:13csrt the DVPOC has shifted to 1399.50..This is equal to my GBX VPOC .. Have any of you found any correlation when they equalize?
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Thanks...what makes this thread special is there is no fairy dust here..this is the real world of trading... Appreciate your candor..
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If you guys got long, nice job... I did not have a clean shot, for me I was looking for a bit lower - 95.00 for final scale... :crap: I'd love to see RE and then there is a double Distribution currently 98.00 and stops probably building under the previos 15m bar low...98.00 - no clue if we will pull back there but that is at least where I would take a look.. I'd like to see RE first but if it pulls back and there is support there that would be an initial consideration... for a long.. :missy:
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Can't send from Trading Computer..Hopefully Chad can figure it out... GRRRR
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IRT bug: Is anyone getting a thick Random horizontal (Red) Line across the tops of bars on their charts..it stops and starts intermittently but only on the tops.. It comes down like a MAvg of TOps... If I right click there is nothing to open..? I have sent a definition to Chad to check out... I am not getting it on my 405m Composite but everything else...
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I took at short & picked up a few donuts but dod not get long (yet).. Here is where you VPOC lovers can put your thinking hats on... As of 9:49cst we have rotated up to the Open and VPOC is right there... Trend is up and there was pretty good rejection off the current LOD..so ... North or Rotation??
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VPOC Shifts: BTW, I hope we can discuss this topic further, especially if there is any way to consistently interpret what is happening when the shift takes place and if there are any tools we can use... COnceptually it is a sign of high volume and that buyers are shut off when it moves to the high like it has in the GBX session but that may only lead to a tight rotation or somehting more signifigent... Thursdays up trend was an example of it moving to the top and the market rotated first in a tight distribution and then it rotated down several points..it sat up there for a fair amount of time... All I knew was there were stops under it and we were heading into lunch so a rotation was highly liklely... Delta did eventually drop but when the VPOC shifted I would have liked to know how aggressive the profit taking was.. Maybe I am living on Fantasy Island... Edit: Today as of 8:07 cst we have bounced off the 1400.00 level, and current High of Move is 1400.50... VPOC has shifted up and DElta has finally come off at 8:01 a cst.. Of course I have no clue if it is just a ripple or if we will get some responsive selling on the open or whatever... Where is my market GPS when I need it..? @ 8:20cst going into the open 97.75 is an interesting number ..that's all I know
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Yes, Tx..I do that... I also LOVE the Revert key..It has saved my butt a number of times..:helloooo:
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BTW: Currently 7:43cst looking at this 1400.00 the market isn't exactly running away from it... GBX-VPOC has shifted up to 1399.00 so it will be interesting to see what it brings forth.. :missy:
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Figures...my numbers only exist in the vast wasteland of my mind.. :doh:
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BTW: I downloaded ver 10.5.c2 IRT.. How is yours running? I like ther extended fractals and this weekend I hope to change the VPOC indicator... Not sure how to do that without wrecking my charts..
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10/11/07..Are your numbers different?
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Just some numbers for Friday... I have CHVN: 1400.00, CLVN: 1405.50, CHVN: 1409.25, CLVN: 1410.25... I "suspect" 1405.50 will be upside potential for today if we breach 1400.00.. but as Josh says "ACH."
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Yes...I am now flat.. 2:47.cst out 95.75... on balance... Of course after guys like me bail and they flushh it the mkt can often make the run in the last 15m after cash closes but I'm ok with that... If I see it going that way, sometimes I will take a few after the shake & break...
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Tx Steve: Is your risk down to that demand node or do you manage it a different way? tx
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Hmm, tx..so my exit at prev HOD seems appropriate and my re-entry also... I am now looking to scale around 96.50 before HOD and then work the balance... Tally Ho.. Risk to 93.50..if we go that way I may exit before...
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Steve: If I may ask was that to add to a position you are holding from this morning or did you bail earlier and were going for a continuation? Tx
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BTW: I am still long but added 93.75 to improve my avg cost a bit but mostly because 93.25 was my next level down .. if we get below there then I am gone..just my little plan as of 1:05cst :missy:
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BTW: I repositioned against 94.25 LVN and CLVN 94.50...so basically I'm back in the position... at apx where I exited... so now helmet on..
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Certainly correct.. The reason I started this thread was to see if there was anything beyond what most of us already know..so far nothing new... But I am hopeful that I may get some ideas either from the market structure side, volume side or math side.. You never know... Appreciate your post..
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Steve: DO you use 24hr charts or do you switch over to RTH? I typically keep an eye on both until the RTH IB is in... then I just use RTH.. Thoughts?
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Agree, I can't even count how many times I've been left at the alter when a target just doesn't get hit... like the 1400.00. Now today I "think" it is a high probability but somewhere along the line I figured out what I think doesn't matter... I do have difficulty managing runners which is why I started the thread "How To Exit a Profitable Trade." Of course, I haven't seen anything I don't know - at least not yet, but I am hopeful there might be some new ideas that might generate some ideas for me since I seem to have exhausted my ideas and I am not satisfied with having to leave several points on the table to get taken out... on a trailing stop... The closest I've found is either under a LVN on the days profile or ATR stop on a tight timeframe... either way is a big chunk of open trade $... SO I am still trying to find something satisfactory for the runners.. One of the issues with my runners in ES is that when I get stopped out..for my full position when I factor in the runners and the average range of ES and the slippage going in and giving up apx 2 pts coming out that is a signifigent part of the range - typically, which is why I am not satisfied - Of course today is atypical and ATRS is still long stop under 1395.00 as of 12:07cst...
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Yes..That was as high probability as it gets... I expected some stops and new buying on the breakout.. Unbfortunately I did not put my full position on so I had to decide whether I wanted to leave some on for the 1400 area...or take it out. I decided to book the $.. "Typically," we get some counter-rotation over lunch..I am going to reposition if we rotate, if not then I am done... I do think the 1400.00 is next on the hit parade... how we get there is another question...
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Exited my longs @ 94.50 just over recent HOmove & CLVN 94.50.. I think 1400 ish possible today but wanted to book a few hamburgers and will now look for rotation if everything lines up for a continuation trade.. I think the "easy $" has been made... :missy: I just read further back & see we all have 1400.00 Yikes... I'm putting my helmet on... :helloooo:
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I read that you look for a 90% win rate.. IMHO that is completely unrealistic... Win means not to lose $.. chances are if you chase that high a win rate you will wipe out any small gains with stops. The probabilities drop as you expand your targets but the offset is you get more yield for your risk... You need the yield otherwise you will be upside down...