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roztom

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by roztom

  1. Actually, that comment seems just a bit jaundiced. I took my first course at CME..it was the best $24. I ever spent. Most "Instructor/Experts" are just marketing guys with varying degrees of expertise..many who can "Talk the Talk" but can't "Walk the Walk." Newbies are easily impressed.. and misled... Sure, I can buy someones trading ATM for $XXX.. let me get my checkbook..wait here..I'll be right back. SpearPoint references Brokers & Series 3...sounds like he might have tried to enter the business from that side... There are two types of retail brokers..those who service retail and those who are "equity raisers" the job is to bring in the lambs to take to the slaughter to convert equity to commissions... Fortunately the NFA has put many of those out of the retail business...but they always find a way. After all if you disclaim and disclose you can literally rob people blind...
  2. Sorry sir but your description of how you trade sounds like amateur hour to me... You are describing any basic trading book not anything that IMHO will lead to a profitable trading business... and nothing that should ever be foisted on the public as expertise.. The more you reveal the more I am confident that you did the right thing by not offering your "course" to the public... If there is an upside here it is that you never do...
  3. I am not going to disrespect you since I cannot read too well between the lines... However, some of the statements you are making border on the absurd. I had to pinch myself and make sure I didn't wake up on Fantasy Island... Best of Luck to You
  4. You may be correct on the teach.. the issue is on the "learn" and where the financial rubber meets the road - execute.. How many have gone to a workshop, seen some workable process and not have even the remote chance of executing? Can you imagine what it would take to put a thorough list together of all the pieces you need to master to actually be able to have a viable trading business? Even if you could quantify a list, where would you find the replicable detail so you could execute the pieces..? Pick one of the most important topics, risk management, trade management.. How much time would you need to spend in that area before you knew what was real vs. fantasy and what you would need to do so you could consistently execute? Multiply that by all the components to success... it is an exponential problem and it is further complicated by the nebulous aspects of psycoloogical alignment which you can only identify, IMHO by trial and error... The problem with the psycological part is that a process that is logical may completely clash with your emotional chemistry and you can spend a huge amount of time trying to fight through it until you learn that it is incompatible with you..then what? Where do you take a course that not only teaches, theory and practical application but aligns with the individual psyche..that is why so much is not replicable and most newbies, if they even get that far have no clue what is undermining their potential success.. While concepts are easy - assuming they are on point, making them your own is another problem and there is no generic solution to execute...
  5. I had this thought along the lines of a Trading School/Franchise: If it could be done - by now it would have... Many promote the idea of course but it doesn't exist... Here's what would happen...you would design a trading template that is simple and learnable.. the software would adjust size, etc based on risk capital. It would be set up for the individual based on the metrics they would generate and adjust to market volatility and drawdown.. It would have a built-in scaling process and targeting mechanism... You would be able to simulate it in replicated market conditions. You would drill, drill, drill..like a fighter pilot..you would develop unconscious competence and have to achieve a level of consistent proficiency & metrics before graduating to real $... Can it be done ?? I believe success in trading is very intangible, intuitive possibly, reading the feel of the market..how price moves at a key area... nuance driven... understanding that when a market turns it will often come back and 1 tick the low, little things... which are really big... where do you learn that..how fast a market rejects a price... the difference between short covering and a new trend.., etc. Can a system be successful...does anyone generate a full time income taking system trades - daytrading? Has anyone bought a off the shelf system, turned it on and cashed a regualr paycheck? Has anyone purchased a system and succeeded? Please sound off... Trading is shades of gray...BTW, gray is the color off to the right side of my screen.. :missy:
  6. Tim Morge is a rare kind of guy...competent, professional and doesn't need a dime from anyone...
  7. Agree With you... Sure... ask Tiger Woods how to play the game, you can learn from it... then go play.. Nobody is saying there aren't good people out there... just hope that whoever the newbie bets on is the real deal... one or two bad experiences, loss of capital and they are done... another statistic - join the happy 90-95% losers. It might take 6 months or a year..but done...they never had a chance. Picking a coach/trainer/mentor is like picking a golf pro...are those skills transferable...assuming they have any value? There is no real trading school...where you enroll, do your course studies and graduate..otherwise let's just create a trading franchise... We could sell them for $100K and there would be almost no overhead... the open-ended ATM of trading riches..the line would never end.. Problem I've observed is that you can't mimic someone elses trade plan ..there lies the rub.. As far as the leeches, the dream merchants whether on Wall ST or Main St, just like any "investment" - disclaim and disclose and you can sell ice cubes to Eskimos (No offence to our Eskimo friends)..and that is the way the worm turns..
  8. MM: Not to encouage you to continue in this direction :rofl: but I spit coffee on my computer screen when I read your post... :missy:
  9. Josh: If there is a way to seperate the scammers from those of value it might be worth it... to accelerate learning.. If a newbie was realistic in their expectations and vendors were honest and marketed realistic expectations then it might be valuable... However, marketing is just what it is - scent on a venus fly-trap. ..also human nature is that the desire to get to making $ quickly makes the individual think that they are different from other students and they will magically be profitable next month... I do believe in education and there might be some vendors out there who can actually teach successful processes but being able to replicate is where most fail... outside of the Prop Shops who might invest in you, the retail trader has very limited options.. Maybe that has changed but I am not aware of it. Maybe a newbie can do research and seek reviews first, maybe a newbie can ask on a site like this and get some direction.. Information is available..maybe a newbie could get some giudance - if they only knew a truly succesful trader.. If someone asked me I'm not sure what I would tell them since, IMHO the psycology is ultimately where the alignment needs to take place - but learning that is a Catch-22. I have former Floor Trader buddies who have made the transition to screen trader..we can sit together and look at similar things on our charts, see similar setups yet we cannot trade them the same way since both approaches vary by the psycological aspects... (age and focus is a factor also for me). I cannot trade a 20 - 50 lot ES for a point or 2.. my friend can... I can't replicate him but we both use very similar setups... He trades size and short high probability targets, all in / all out. I can't do that but we are almost identical in our methodology and set ups... Think about when we typically enter a valid setup how most initially go our way... not to get off topic but even for $2,500. or $25K and seeing him do it, and so can I - except for one reason. I can't psycologically do what he does... even if our charts & tools are almost identical.. Would anyone pay him $2,500, $5,000, $50,000? In a heartbeat.. who could replicate it? Probably nobody... Josh, you are on point..
  10. I sure have..in time, capital, hardware, software, brain damage, opportunity loss... that was/is my educational cost. When I make errors I am still paying... I know you are asking specifically about vendors but vendors come in many configurations... I think it is easy to accrue those costs if you have spent any time in this business especially if you don't have access to other traders and trader communities...
  11. Mia Culpa: When I started out in 1980 I bought every book - established a huge library, 1. Subscribed to various newsletter/advisories, Cycle trading, Seasonals, etc. 2. Purchased systems, bought black box systems (even from Bill Cruz before he started Omega Research of TradeStation). 3. Took classical bar charting courses at CME (Cost $24) Invaluable!! 4. Purchased System Writer Plus and wrote trading systems - curve fitted, over optimized, walked forward..thought complexity trumped simplicity. (Not) 5. Subscribed to a trading system newsletters - Bought a few, useless except to deconstruct-- to learn. 6. Lagging indicators -studies, Gann, Elliott, Fractals, Fib's, Hurst, Market Profile 7. Worked with George Lane in 1980 -1982 with an Apple Computer who invented Stochastics - it was the Holy Grail (we thought) at the time - it wasn't in the public domain yet. (Wouldn't put it on my screen today) 8. Researched various oscillator configurations - thought the Holy Grail was just around the corner - didn't understand the flaws in lagging indicators. (Learned) 9. Attended several seminars - the most benificial by Pete Steidelmeir of Market Profile fame... Learned Auction Theory, couldn't use MP..abandoned it for years until Volume Profiles - ding, ding, ding. 10. Purchased tons of various latest & greatest software packages as they were released, etc, etc, etc. after being reviewed in Futures Mag. Too many more to remember at the moment but been there, done that... Many deadends... blew up several trading accounts.. lived through locked limit moves against me, margin calls and despair... Trading at that time in the early 1980's was a mostly isolated profession - other than at the Exchange there was no way to be part of a community like we have today, there was no information available at your fingertips... the traders I knew at CBOT/CME were mostly floor traders, not even remotely similar to what we do.. nobody had the answers for a screen trader since when I started we barely had screens.. a quote machine was basically it.. a realtime Tic chart cost over $700/mo - in 1980!! a breakthrough - you had to run a phone line to Mass. to get data..I think it was ADP Comptrend. There was no daytrading..it was positions, trend following. Swing Trading was aggressive.. Screen traders really didn't exist except in a corner of a room..the Exchange members thought I was out of my mind..we could not relate at all. (Actually they were right) :missy: At the time, there really weren't any other ways to get an education and I did the best I could under the circumstances. Nobody was there to mentor me - I was a hair late to be part of the Turtle Trading Group put together by Richard Dennis.. they had just stopped taking applications when I showed up - that might have helped -do you think? :doh: Today, none of that is necessary..All the answers are right here and on the web... at your fingertips... and in yourself.. This journey has many components. It never stops being a continuing learning experience.. Today I am successful but there were many years I was not.. When someone asks me how to do this I can give them generic ideas but I can't give them a Plug & Play solution..I also cannot give them the tenacity and commitment it takes to make this into a business.. I cannot get them to bypass screen time..you can't buy someone elses experience. I still post simple questions - about the basics..why?..I want to see if things have changed..they have not. It is all the same... sure there are slicker software packages packed with indicators - I admit to use a few... but very little... most are redundent - useless crap.. IMHO. The point of this is not to knock vendors but to say it is all out there. However, you must align what is there to yourself.. this is no easy task since you will never truly know yourself and have any opportunity to succeed until you do..
  12. That's nice.. I try to just get the range and trade the meat I don't have the focus to trade the short rotations..I certianly see them but it is too intensive at this point, at least for me.. I got a short off this morning and a long on the way back up..after that I managed my last position and decided that was it for me.. If we had more range I would have done a few more but Monday isn't all that far away and often on OPX this is the kind of range we get... Have a good wknd if I don't "see you."
  13. I'm ok with losing $ for the right reasons..that's part of the business..it's all the human errors that creep in and take a whack at the P&L... over time it is very expensive... When you look at todays market here is the question: Is it better to be out since it is crap no matter what happens or better to stay in and get stopped when the market structure breaks down? Today 97.00 is the sweet spot, IMHO... If it breaks, psycologically I will be rewarded..if it rallys then I will be punished...either way I lose... Structure should triumph over $... but how many of us would hang out in this market with no OTF present..?
  14. The issue here is "We know we don't know." That is at least how I try to rationalize risk..my job is to take it at the right time.. The other part of my job is to manage risk, the trade and the exit... This is really the difficult part of the business... One of the things I have never reconciled is whether to use market structure for being wrong or just exit when the trade drys up like it has today.. However the market structure for the upside is still intact as of 2p cst... so eventhough it looks like paint drying there is nothing structuarlly wrong with being long - other than the double top at HOD which seems like it might be taken out... if so 1402.00 - 1405.00 potential...who knows...
  15. Yes..It is frustrating to still make these kinds of errors... When my brain drifts...Hyde takes over..It is like the non-trading side of the brain takes over... "Don't lose $." "Grab what you have" "Don't let it turn into a loser (3 Tic risk)" "You're going to get stopped anyway - just get out... blah,blah..." Does this sound familiar? The problem with this is many times I do get out and the trade goes South..this is where descretion is a challange...consistent inconsistency.. That, amoung other reasons is why Hyde shows up..I do not have a mechanical rule for this but Market Structure should trump everything else...
  16. Gosu: I read one of your posts on the forum that you exit: All in/All out and do not believe in scaling. Is that still true for you or have you changed what you do on managing your trade? I basically trade 2 exits: 1 is short term high probability targets - usually where stops should be clustered on the other side and then a runner for something more signifigent. The issue is when I take a loss on that full position including runner vs just taking it all out at the high probability target do I come out ahead? DO I really get anything over time with the runner? Steve: Says the runner adds almost 50% to his net so it is a bit of a conundrum for me... Since I am descretionary and vary the number of contracts I trade it is difficult for me to analyze.. Have you looked at that by any chance? Tx
  17. Several, at least... I have decided to get a new rubber stamp made so I can put this on my forehead.. "Trade The Trade, NOT the $." My long was at 97.75... the key number was/is 97.00 for this up move to fsil..so using the wisdom of over 30 yrs of this I pulled my stop to B/E @ 97.75, no reason... and then bailed for several ticks... even B/E stop wasn't taken as of 1:17cst. Maybe those ticks are worth a pint for both of us... Moral of the Story: "Trade The Trade, NOT the $." I hate when the Hyde takes over for Dr. Jeckal... :crap:
  18. Thanks for the number... I am flat & thinking I just might call it a day... I was thinking of a short but this thing is not worth it IMHO.. The channel is up, trend up, etc... "However" the way this is setting up in this chop it could break down - also the MP is very thinck up in the top part... so it is not a good trade so far... As bullish as this market is, it is Friday and the market is long... if the buyers are taking a long weekend then the sellers may show up this afternoon... I think "punt" is in order... On days like this I like to think I can scalp but there is not enough range... In the old days I would picture 2 guys in the S&P pit hitting a whiffle ball across an empty pit when it traded like this...
  19. UPdate: I "expect" to be stopped out on this trade..my stop is easy $... the key is the 97.00 IMHO... If that holds then I may go long again but ...... 12:28cst..Update to update: I am flat - took seveal ticks out... I always look to position on counter-rotations during lunch and my B/E stop was in the way of the rotation so I am out..while currently there is no reason to exit other than the fact we didn't take the HOD out & based on my view of auction theory the stops are the magnet to do business... so rotation is next, IMHO... Of course I do run the risk this will hold but it seems very low probability I "suspect" 98.00 area is easy $... Let's see...
  20. Josh: What is the next number up you have on your composite above 1400.00 ? Tx
  21. True COnfessions: I messed up my exit.. I had written 99.50 well that was the target but my order should have been at 99.25.. Fortunately I scaled 99.00 even but that is the kind of lack of focus that can turn shinola into #%&*... :crap: Still holding partial with stop B/E... 97.75...clueless :missy:
  22. Still long by a hair...stop B/E... 97.75... 99.50 to scale & then??? But action stinks, IMHO...
  23. Well maybe my stop @ 97.00 will help.. I'm long 97.75 so .75 pt risk... needs to hold there or elevator down will continue..
  24. BTW Josh: I had the closing swing low at 95.00 also which is support and a low @ 94.50..that was my area to get long... but Mr. Market had other plans...
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