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roztom
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Everything posted by roztom
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Thanks MM: I think one really won't know themself, especially on the Micro level until they attempt to trade especially since the skills of successful trading are contrary to the skills most of us use in the "real world.".. I don't think trading teaches you about yourself per se but forces you to learn about yourself as part of the process - not taking exception to your comment BTW... The point of my question is really about the conflicts that arise from within that can sabotage our success... In spite of how long I have done this I still make unnecessary errors and it is sometimes like Dr. Jeckel & Dr. Hyde... :doh: Most of us have probably said to ourselves, "Why did I do that?" "I know I shouldn't have done that but I did it anyway." "What was I thinking?" That I suspect is the self-talk we go through when we screw up but which side of the mind is screwing up? Seems to me that there is a struggle always going on... sometimes it is buried, other times it is right on the surface messing with the execution of ones trade plan.. I'm hoping we can learn more about experiences in this area that can be the determinant of trading success or failure..
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Appreciate your suggestions... Do you have any comments/suggestions on the psycological aspects of this question?
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Good idea but I am a daytrader... It is what can happen before the trade goes on ... and how the field of vision can change.. Thanks for the post..
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Greetings: Thanks for visiting this thread. I hope you will share some of what you have learned about yourself and how you deal with the 2 sides of your trading mind. This actually relates to the conflict between the intuitive self and our pragmatic self the real world educated self (life, school, socialization, family, etc..) and the trading self.. I am not a psycologist but an experienced discretionary trader.. I have experienced something over and over and I am wondering if this happens to you and if so what have you done as a solution. Here's what happens to me: I look at a market or whatever, my mind pops with what I see, it is a confluence of charts, technicals, over 30yrs experience, screen time and last nights pasta.. I sense what is likely to happen and where I should take a trade and/or exit.... Quite often I am right on the button.. HOWEVER, when things get going my logical non-intuitive self can take over, move a stop, dump a good position. I become UNCONSCIOUS of what I had thought before..like it never happened... I can become myopic at times..this costs me... I write down what I intuitively see but often it is in front of me and I no longer see it... My conscious brain has overridden the intuitive.. Somehow they need to co-exist but they often don't... Any of you have this conflict and if so how have you successfully or unsuccessfully tried to manage it..? Thanks for your time and consideration..this might require some "thought."
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Time Based Charts Versus Price Driven Charts?
roztom replied to HighStakes's topic in General Trading
I find that the shorter the timeframe the more noise there is... I trade ES and I try to get a reasonable piece of the days move... I basically use a top down approach.. In addition to longer term Cumulative Volume Profiles I use 30M MP/VP to see structure, where key volume areas are and where we are in the bigger picture - what is the market trying to do, where are the stops on the other side that the market will be attracted to (auction theory). However, my Longterm interday chart is 15m..this is just to see any chart structure developing like a Flag or Triangle so I get a sense of what kind of day we are in.. Then I scale down to 1.25 range and then .50 Range or 233 Tic for entry (I call this periscope depth) ... After I get a position on I follow it with a .4 renko, just to take the noise out so I dont get caught up in minutae... I also trade for targets..scale out, etc. My charts are price/volume driven since to me price/volume at price represents trader acceptance or rejection. Time is an element since participants must act within the confines of the session but for me price and volume represents what is perceived as value at any time... perceived value can change and price will respond accordingly... -
Check out Big Mike Trading.com Big Mike's Trading Forum This is an excellent site.. many webinars by qualified industry participants... leans towards Forex but covers all of it..similar to this site but has additional resources... I recommend it to everyone... one of the best in addition to TL.. that is the only other one I visit and it is mostly to research or watch a video on a topic of interest...
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I try to read the market (ES) before a report comes out. I WILL position in front of a report if everything lines up and I have a setup... Of course, some major reports like Unemployment, or a report the market is especially sensitive to - I will not... I also like to get in early enough to get a scale under my belt... This is especially true before a 9a cst report... If FED Day -no way... I do not trade the news but if a market has a strong reaction to the news and a trend is developing I will go with a continuation trade .. I just look to see what the OTF players are doing and try to align with them... One of the things I've observed over the years is that the "smart $" knows what is going to happen "most" of the time.. The issue is risk management IMHO, that is an individual call based on trade plan and capitalization...
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I appreciate all the comments and sharing... I basically go all in but scale at logical targets/obstacles - what I consider high probability areas and then manage runners differently... 1. Obstacles/Targets 2. Runner/Target Obstacles might be previous close, todays open, yesterdays low, etc - all based on current trend and to me I always want to think where stops are on the other side as attractors and also obstacles where the other side might come in... The runner is just that - it is also targeted and depends where we are relative to an attractor - a dividing line or Longer timeframe support/resistance... The runner, however, can be a source of frustration as nice chunks can be given back..that is really where there seems to be no magic answer... If you trail 2 swings back the give back is huge..maybe that is the conumdrum.. or you use something close like a ATRS or something and the odds of being stopped are high... SO I conclude that for a runner, the statistics need to prove that overtime giving up open profits to have the opportunity for the long ball makes sense.. Have any of you come to that conclusion? Thanks for your participation.
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As far as my last post, I would like to hear about what you guys do to recognize the change in trend... Obviously I know when it has happened but that is often after I have tried to take a continuation trade with what I perceive to be the current trend which is against the emerging trend..this might be at the midpoint or a rotation up to where stops are sitting and then there will be a move back initially towards the initial trend that will fail... if the trend has changed - my brain though is fixated on the current trend and typically doesn't see the other possiblilty until it is too late..then all I can do is wait for a rotation from the new trend and get on board which was fine yesterday but in a swift rejection of the previous trend - good trade location is difficult to obtain.. Obviously losing trades are part of the deal and maybe that is just the way it goes... Yesterday Friday, 3/23/12 is a good example.. we sold off, took out the previous days low and then reversed off a Single (which I missed initially - pilot error).. To me the down trend was not over and I anticipated a retracement to test that low... However, that never materialized - there was really no rotation as what emerged was what I would call a trend day up and an outside Daily bar... Lower prices were decisively rejected... This is one of those things that is not clear to me as it is developing... Yesterday I did observe strong rejection off the bottom and the bars going back up were strong without rotation, other than that It wasn't until we had taken out the stops just above the mid-point and then we didn't rotate back down to the DVAL... then I was upside down... Maybe I should just chalk it up to just a losing trade but in the interday timeframe when these changes develop I am slow to let them in to my thinking.. I'm curious if any of you have any other processes to recognize this quicker...
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Trader are Insane: Definition of Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome.. It's Behavior, Behavior, Behavior... the rest is all B.S. Some Other Goodies: I bought the low, sold the high.. That move was obvious..look at my chart, I had that number right there... I took 12 trades: 10 winners, 1 B/E, lost 1 pt... This is easy if you just do what I do... I'll post my chart so you can see how I DID it.. I've got a winning system I've worked on for 10 yrs... I was going to sell it but decided I didn't want to be called a scam artist so I won't sell it. Oh, you want to know about it.. Nah, It's too good and you might not follow it right and then you might call me a scammer... I could tell you how I do it but then it wouldn't be yours.. I've already given you hints..it's so obvious..just keep staring at that chart...
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I find that making the transition from short to long, etc is difficult for me... When we are in transition I am often looking to reposition with the initial direction when in reality the trend is changing - except my brain is still in the sell mode like today... This is a repetitive issue for me... Once I figure it out then if the market lets me I can get on board in the right direction on a continuation trade - though late... if there is a reachable target like today it worked out .. This weekend, like every evening, I am going to looking at my tools, doing playback and see if I can either recognize the transition or at the very least see a pattern that says STOP and wait before looking for a continuation trade against a potential emerging new trend.. So much to do....
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Actually a beautiful thing to see... I left you a post earlier about that bottom from yesterday... BTW, there was single at 80.25... I really screwed up since I was going for the 77.00 and didn't scale in front of the single...ended up giving a lot back and it was unnecessary... I also failed to see the reversal... MY technicals did - I was stuck in reverse and stood against it...that set me back... :crap: Fortunately I dusted myself off and got on a continuation trade long at the only spot I saw... I have some conflict in my methodology that pops up in transitions so I have to look at that and see maybe if a cattle prod or something might help...
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...Looks like we go up... 1401 -1402 stop heaven...good magnet... I have a MicroLVN @ 1402.25, CLVN 1405.00
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Nothing wrong with that... I had a tough time with it myself.... Congratulate yourself for hanging in there...
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Well, that was excruciating..got my 93.50's took runner at same price... Have a good weekend... I am going to work on ..not making some of the SAME mistakes.. I had to really fight to hang on for the target...
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All together now... 1-2-3 PUSH !!!!
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SOmebody needs to press the Green Button - HARD...:helloooo:
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I really don't want to see 88.25 again... but based on structure this rotation "could be about it" give or take a few ticks to 89.00 area again.. Since I scaled 1/3 of my position I am going to see how we behave here and potentially put it back on... sine I have taken some risk off the table... will see.. Edit: I didn't get enough of a pullbk to add..i thought 90.00 would get ticked and I got another buy at 91.25 but not enough room with next target close & risk out of whack..imho... so just hanging out with my next scale 93.50... then Hail Mary pass..
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He has a printing press and I don't....
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Great... Somebody ought to stuff a sock in his mouth...
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This 93.00 we just put in had a reasonable rejection... I considered pulling the trigger on part of my position..this is a bit testy since I have a plan, etc but now it will rotate..the problem of course - how far ..If I sell and we have a shallow rotation I give up potential location - if this is it then I am going to watch open trade profits evaporate..just the issue that always stalks.... The 94.25 CLVN is a important number plus the low of the gap.. it is difficult for me to think it won't get tested... that is the dividing line IMHO...
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:(This thing is tall & skinney - typical trend day.. that rotation we had was a reach... 88.50...this is primed IMHO but I might be drunk with Long Fever... We're bumping up @ CHVN 92.25 but IMHO it is not much of a barrier also it's Tuesdays low..so we should pause here...
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The question as of 12:17cst is wheather we are going to rotate around this upper balance area or sit up here.. we don't have any kind of a decent high yet but we are heading into the lunch potential counter-rotation time of day... However, The market structure doesn't necessarily lend it to much rotation at the moment but ACH - right...
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I'm confused...
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JOsh: I want to revisit our conversation about yesterdays low not being a good low..which was a good reason to think it would get tested... now todays - well tail of the tape...... Hindsight being 20/20 I fixated on the NVPOC 77.00 and disregarded the single @ 80.25for another scale..I cost myself big and it was right there in front of me... That is the stuff that drives me nuts.. IT's one thing not to know this stuff but the worst is when it doesn't register eventhough I'm looking right at it...