roztom

Just a passing comment here on a fundamental..the HOme SAles Fell, this IMHO is Bullish News... I don't know if it will manifest itself today or not.. If the Economy is still "Punch Drunk" then the prospects of further Fed easing stay on the table...

Here's a question for you guys, just relative to rotations.. 1. Do any of you add on a rotation, assuming structure is still in place, eventhough it might increase your risk? 2. Do any of you scalp against you position? Ex. Assuming you can "see" rotation coming Do you take partial off & put it back on to improve your average Price & reduce risk? (You also risk losing trade location) 3. Exit/Stop..Do you use technical indicators to get you out or market structure? Curious... since we are all different.. Have any of you tested these various strategies and come up with any conclusions? TX BTW: I have a CLVN @ 1410.25... If we get going here that "might" be my target for my runner.. it is going to depend on how skinney the profile is when/if we get there. Also if I do take it there and we rotate and form an upper balance area I may scalp or take continuation trade for a test of whatever high is in if there is enough range to make it worthwhile... Just sharing some thoughts... trying to keep from falling asleep..

Well: I got positioned @ 1403.25 & scaled one just before NVPOC @ 1405.00, next target 1407.25 before HOM and CHVN 1407.75..then punt for runner... risk to test of OS High, 1 tik above open... That's all I know... :missy:

Thanks Squishy... Pending Home Sales 9a cst BTW..

Looks like we have similar views. We both posted at the same time.. :rofl:

Looks like our levels for today have been stolen in the GBX session... Looks like the high is going to be taken out/tested/etc... So Now: Will we blow through and build higher value, and accept this new area? Will we form an extreme up here and put in a excess either today or tomorrow? How to trade this? Initially buy breaks for a test upside then? The market could also test early then be hit by profit taking... Many possibilities, imho. Key: We know the high up here is not a good high. Also the rejection off Fridays break was strong with really no rotation against it... This is a strong market with a strong upward bias...

Yes, there were signs there Friday. I did recognize the velocity of the bars - rejection of the bottom..it did register "unconscious competence" but my "conscious incompetence" was still focused on the 77.00 in spite of what I observed... it was obscured by a more structured approach - for the sake of discipline. That is what generated the thread I started "Unconscious vs Conscious Competence." I am going to see what I can do to allow for these varibles to come in OR potentially try to allow these scenarios and let go of the original idea if the market "might" be in transition.. Easier said then done, but I am going to see what I can do about it... Thanks for your comments here and on the "unconscious" thread..

I think top performers in any highly competitive endeavor have this skill integrated and they perform at a higher level because of it... My interest in the topic from my perspective is that I recognize this element in myself but most of the time my need for discipline discounts it.. often I have glimpses of "brillance" but I have trained myself not to be influenced by this "unconscious competence" for the sake of consistency - (tough enough on its own). I think we all have this skill to one extent or the other (as someone referenced earlier like riding a bike), assuming, we are past the rookie phase and have enough time under our belts to recognize the repetitive market behavior that is nuance driven and cannot be put in a black & white structured context. I am going to try to let more of this in to my trading on a "conscious level" if I can.. though it is somewhat in conflict with my discipline or at least try to note what flashes in my mind - if I can. I am very interested if others have looked at this area of their trading.. and either managed any conflict it might create, just ignore it or more importantly integrated it and use it to perfom at higher levels and yield. If so, can we learn to capitalize on it - and what steps did they use to accomplish it? If you think about Floor Traders - they operate often at this level. I see what they do as more of a "contact sport" then us... We typically have more time to react..We can plan our trades. They are order flow/news driven and we are more price driven. They just "go" - that requires "unconscious competence" since they are "in the moment."

I can't answer that.. I personally have no quantifiable data... I'm really trying to get a feel on how others have integrated it or deal with the potential conflicts that those 2 parts of the mind create... also if that "unconscious competence" is an asset to be harvested or an obstacle that creates conflict... I hope we might hear some more about this..appreciate your participation...

I lived in BayRidge.. 4th Ave betw 84th & 85th St..

I didn't know what to expect.. When I was 14yrs old I hung out in Stock Brokerage offices during Summer Vacation and Spring Break... I read the WSJ riding the subway in NYC going to grammer school... that is how it started for me.. It was the only way I knew, as a kid, to accumulate wealth..that is when my interest started... HOWEVER, the reality is quite different than the fantasy... If you were to ask an experienced trader what this business is like I don't think it could be adequately explained or even relatable...it is fantasy vs reality...

I do not believe an Isreali/(US Attack) would have any real upside vs. the potential downside. 1. Only a moron in Iran would not have anticipated potential attacks against Nucleur development - ie. Libya. 2. Today sites are dispersed among civilian targets. 3. Sites are not only dispersed but hardened. 4. No matter what damage, there is a high probability it would not stop the continued development of Iran's nucleur capability. 5. This would allow Iran to have a open "Get Out of Jail Free Card" to justify retaliation against Isreal for an "unprovoked" attack. 6. Potential disruption to oil flow could cripple our Economy more than any armed attack. 7. An attack would be a P.R. coup for the Jihadist recruiters.. and accellerate retribution. The West would pay for it into the indefinite future.

:haha: I'll join you... This is an interesting topic IMHO.. (not the beers) I think some of the great traders, just like great athletes, have integrated these competencies... In my case I do like structure, it lays off the decision-making, at least to a point, to a replicable process. I hope we will get some more insights here on this.. it is not a light topic but then neither is high-yield trading...

Agree on the Renko, I just use it for cruising altitude.. I don't want to get distracted by the noise when I am trying to stay with a trade... I also have the 1.25 range which is very effective in the ES for trend/swing..and then the smaller timeframes for execution.. I do shoot for targets, scale out, etc.. As far as the ES, it is ok to trade.. as long as the range is around 8 - 10 pts or greater. I know there is more volatility in other markets but then the risk is commensurate also... ES works for me... if it drys up in the summer then maybe I will look elsewhere.. However, the current Global enviroment might just keep things hopping.. :missy:

Siuya: Those are very good points... There is a possiblity that the outcome of integrating "unconscious competence" into competent trading is random. There is no way to know other than trying to quantify it.. In my case my competent side dominates my unconscious side when the unconscious competent has more highly developed skills.. I wonder how many of you become myopic as you zero in on a trade... like tunnel vision..all other thoughts, input, distractions leave your consciousness...like shooting a rifle - complete focus on the target... This is where the conscious mind and the "subconscious experience" or "unconscious competence" or "skill" should partner. I find that while the "competent consciousness" skill functions for me quite well on recognizing setups, entry, execution, etc. it is when the intuitive side which has recognized conflicting information, also based on skill - is discounted. (not on a conscious level) I do not decide to discount it..my other side that is executing is not conscious what my intuitive side had recognized.. It is the difference when you see it and immediately forget it or when you see it and you get it..it is when that unconscious skill is not capitalized on...that is the issue.. BTW, packets of Excedrin as parting gifts for eveyone who visits and contributes to this thread... :doh:

I don't think the "unconscious competent" can be quantified..it is a confluence of skills that have been "internalized." Like a musician or athlete..it just happens..from years of repetition.. it flows. The market "speaks" to you, etc.. The challange, especially in a structured trading enviroment is "How Do You Listen." Problem is: How To Listen?

[quote name=TheNegotiator; . Secondly and I must stress that this is something i would never dive right into' date=' if you are a continuation trader, is ES the best market for you?[/quote] What is your suggestion on this point? Tx

Actually no - that is an area I am quite adept at.. as far a levels, etc... It is only one facet of my plan.. There isn't really that much to it... I can often catch bottoms, tops at logical excesses/targets usually on the initial test against a top/bottom... this can be on a fast tic chart or something a little longer if it is not a clean rejection... The angst I have with Friday and even Thursdays quick rejection off that bad bottom we discussed is that I get caught more often than I should... I am also often slow to let go of my initial perception of the current trend as things are changing... this was not always the case.. so it is also a function of focus/age.. I believe that I need some more kind of conscious alert that will signal me to this potential... Possibly some automated signal or something. However when a market is in transition it is not clear until after the ship has sailed - at least not in the timeframe I trade in... It does become evident in a higher timeframe but by then often I have taken a continuation trade against that emerging trend or the risk to get on the emerging trend is too great when eventually recognized and then I must settle for a continuation set up... with less potential. The real problem is holding on to the previous perception when the market is transitioning.. Back in my earlier trading days I was more of a shooter and would take those counter-trend trades which could turn into new emerging trends however I do not trade like that anymore and have lengthened my timeframe to try to catch larger rotations with targets... The lengthened timeframe is what causes me to not recognize the potential transition... I do have indicators that will signal me of a rotation plus I just see it.These are variable and nebulous factors.. so I am not sure at the moment if I can quantify a stuctured response/signal to avoid this mistep.. I am working on it..too often this takes a very good day and turns it into mediocrity.. It doesn't take too much to do that... even if the losing trade(s) are managed properly considering the average range of ES that can make a huge difference to P&L... I'm giving this careful review... Thanks for your input. . BTW, referencing Friday... there was NVPOC @ 77.00 which was still in my mind so I was still holding on to it as a viable target and looking for it..I did not at the time let the rejection off the 82ish low register eventhough my "Unconscious Competent" recognized it.. Referenced in the thread I started "Unconscious Competence vs Conscious Competence."

Deleted Duplicate Post..Opps

Thanks.. I do understand your point..I really don't expect an answer for me personally since we are all different in that repect but I am interested in what others have done and how/if they use the "unconscious competent" in their trading. There is an assumption, of course, that one has "unconscious competence" and that it is not the "conscious incompetent" thrashing over what to do.. :helloooo: The other issue is how Random might the "unconscious competent" be correct? Can it be quantified? I suspect it can't... That is the question among the others articulated previously.. What about that "unconscious competence?" We all have invested a lot of time and effort to have it.. it is a by product of study, experience - screen time.. Is There A Way To Capitalize On It? Is there a Way to Allow it into the plan and get the "Conscious Competent" to align and work with it? Thanks for all your responses..

I agree wirh your posts.. Emotions: They must be managed and also how we cope with not liking losses, or the desire to be a victor on the financial field of battle - all depending how one aligns their vision of themselves in this endavor I believe.. In order to succeed we must all manage the emotional aspects of trading - we all do that or attempt to do that in different ways which align with our beliefs and vision of ourselves. It is necessary to succeed. My objective is to consistently execute my trade plan every day and win/lose/draw that is a good day for me.. If I execute a losing trade according to plan for me, emotionally it is a winner - eventhough a financial loss... BTW MM , I HATE to lose also..I will pound my fist on the desk...that's just my release. Monkey See - Monkey Not Do: The question here is what happens when you see something or even have a sturcture violated in the market, you recognize it mentally let's say you are short and a recent Minor Swing High is violated in the shorter timeframe but it is not unusual for a rotation to take some stops and that might be a good place to reposition for a test of the potential low - let's assume it is a logical spot - a "competent" location to consider a continuation trade and lets assume there is enough profit potential to justify the trade.. However, the rejection off the bottom was swift, your "unconscious competance" says Wow that is a bottom, but since you are descretionary then you get to a level and the "other" part of your brain the "Conscious" side takes a continuation trade against an emerging trend.. Your trade plan allows for continuation trades but as you approach that level your focused more mechanical side no longer sees or remembers the intuitive, nuance driven "unconscious competence" which recognized the bottom - you recognized the swift rejection. Your conscious side "forgets the inner voice of "Unconscious Competence." It is lost in the myopic focus of the "Conscious Competence" which zero's in and then goes ahead and takes that trade against the new emerging trend.. LIKE IT NEVER HAPPENED!! Now maybe that is part of your trade paln but the information "unconscious competent" which recognized that change was not part of the decision to renenter which is more a setup based action when you see a rotation - if that is your trade style.. Now the trade plan allows for that trade but the "unconscious competent" side of your brain recognized that you should not be going that way - but instead looking to position with the emerging trend.. but your "conscious competence" disregarded that "unconscious recognition" and executed what would become a losing trade and also gave up trade location for a trade going the other way.. In a trade plan which typically must be structured I find it difficult to reconcile both.. since they can be in conflict. The other issue - the competent side doesn't even remember the unconscious competent that recognized the trend change potential. One part is the discipline to just execute the trade.. now I'm not suggesting you stand in front of a freight train for ex if you are at a 50% retracement or midpoint after a swift rejection of a low and it is clear to your "competent" side.. It is when the competent side is following setups without integrating the information the "unconscious competent" recognized. When you say "Why Did I do That?" - that question comes because you recognized market behavior with your "unconscious competance" and disregarded it in the "competent" moment. (Not necessarily a trade plan error but not capitalizing on the experience your "unconscious competent" brings to the table) Maybe you just write it off as a losing trade.. How can you account for the "unconscious side" speaking to you when we tend to trade from the "competent" more structured side? Maybe it's my own personal weakness but it is really when all the experience goes out the window and it seems that this conflict can occasionally take a great day and turn it into poop - at least it occasionally does for me... I am wondering how you guys deal with this - assuming you do experience this at all? I do not think it is unique to me - at least I hope not.. Do you just accept it as part of what happens and just stick to your plan..? Remember, I am not talking about the things your "conscious competence" sees but the things your "unconscious self" sees & acknowledges "that's a bottom" but disregards as you execute after your "conscious competent" brain is still looking for the continuation with the former trend when your inner voice told you to be off the trade and should be going the other way. I hope I am expressing this clearly - I understand it may be something you guys don't experience and also you may accomodate it by just ignoring it if it does.. allowing for it and just executing your plan. Maybe this part of the brain would cause a breakdown of discipline and stucture and create random outcomes.. Should it just be ignored for the need for consistency? Can it be, should it be allowed into the plan? Have you integrated it into your process/plan? This is why I am intersted in your experiences in this area.. it is something that I think emerges as you get experience under your belt.. IMHO. Thanks again for your efforts and time to share what you do.. If this does not apply to you then I appreciate your efforts to contribute... maybe I just need a good therapist.. :crap:

I think that is about being able to seperate or insulate yourself from fear and also not putting yourself, family, etc at unnecessary risk.. How many people start a business and do not consider the potential of bankruptcy ? In this business you are on the line 100% with cash..you cannot get protection from bankruptcy laws or cut a deal with your clearing firm if you screw the pooch...

N: What is interesting here and I can't speak for Josh but I think in his post he intimated the same thing, is that while there were numerous signs that there was a potential trend reversal at hand the issue comes down to really subtle items..the swiftness of the trend reversal, the number of bars driving up from the rejected bottom vs the counter rotations against the previous move down... I also knew as we discussed the previous day when we had that "local bottom" - that bottom wasn't good so taking it out Friday was highly probable also we discussed the recent high was a "bad high" so the trend was up... & we should expect a test and probable rejection or... up there...there was no tail... so we had the bias for a move back up - we also targeted that NVPOC @ 77.00..one thing was that single at 82.00 ish - we never really get into those but if you go & look when & how it was created it was a signifigent area of OTF buying on FED Day.. That is a lot to have in your consciousness when you are managing a trade... What really screwed the pooch for me is that I took 2 shorts as continuation trades against the emerging trend... I could see worst case taking the first one (still not a good one based on the emerging evidence) - it was at the only real counter rotation which was brief. The second short was a WTF trade... that took a good day and turned it upside down. Fortunately I got in line and came out ahead for the day but that is not really important the damage was done.. This is part of the dilemma I have..there were parts of my brain that recognized the trend change was happening but there was another part that did not actively change with it.. until damage was done.. That's really all I can say on it.. Picking tops and bottoms is not my strength which is why continuation trades and rotations are where I seem to do well.. however it is not the trades I don't take - there is always another bus coming by - it is taking more than one trade against the emerging trend that got me - even if I allow for the first one but either way my brain did not allow for what my other brain was seeing. BTW: I started a Thread "Unconscious vs. Conscious Competence" but so far I haven't gotten any real responses..so maybe I'm the only one living in twinky land... Thanks for your comments..