roztom

Well, it's 1p cst...I fell asleep at my computer... this is really not tradeable unless something sets up leter...I gues if you are an envelope trader you could "scalp" for a point or 2...certainly not what I do especially with a range this tight.. I do think we'll end up on the upside of this range today but a chop is a chop... I've been reading and posting with one eye on the screen...This will probably squirt to the upside this afternoon but ... Edit: 1:50cst.. All my Technicals are pointing up... but I do not see any edge since there is no good trade location at least at the moment... :missy:

I think everone should try to answer that one..however - there might really not be a specific answer or path... I'm not trying to be vague here..but it is an overwhealing question to try to answer... Without trying to pass this off to someone else, there are posts on the site that try to articulate the process it is something that takes many of us years to master with much weeping and knashing of teeth along the way... This is a very high skill endeavor and it requires 1,000's of hours of screen time if you want to be a daytrader.. now I am a futures trader - most here probably are... you do not have to start that way as far as instrument to trade & risk..in fact today they have simulators so you only have to risk your time and not your $... The trading process is basically generic (not including the idocincacies of a specific product - anybody ever trade Pork Bellies :helloooo: ). Basic Trend Following and Bar Charts are not a bad place to start... Basic concepts like Support & Resistance. Understanding what & where a profit target might be, defining when a trade fails and what the risk is to find out if you're right... Basically when you put on a trade you are paying for the opportunity to find out if your hypothesis is right - price of admission to the game.. in reality you need to see a trade as a coin toss, 50/50 with a random distrubtion of outcomes with hopefully an edge that skews the data in your favor. Then you MUST consistently execute your edge. An edge can be just ONE repetitive setup that you have complete confidence in, that you have tested and shows up and has a probability of succeeding more than 50% of the time - in other words not random...60% would be nice or more... but anything that skews the probabilities your way, over time, if you can execute it consistently will make you $. DO not worry about indicators..that only adds complexity - plenty of time to open Pandora's Box... start out simple... I started with a end of day chart book, ruler and pencil. Took a Bar Charting Course at the CME and bought a book on Bar Charting by Edwards & McGee... considered by many to be the bible of Charting... there are many good books on it but that is the classic... This is just how I started - not saying that you should approach it like I did. Back then there was no internet or online charts, etc... but I did learn and lost a lot of brain cells along the way. :crap: Many compare this business to being a fighter pilot.. I think that might be accurate... the timeframe you choose to trade in will determine how sharp your skills need to be, IMHO... YOu do not need to swing for the fence - job one - survive the learning curve.. you are trading against potentially the Goldman Sachs and Michael Jordans of the Trading World, MBA's, Research Dept's, High Frequency Trading Bot's, High Speed Computers, Hedge Funds, etc. You get the picture. Keep in mind where you are on the Financial Food Chain - right near the bottom... Trading is not an ATM that anyone can unlock - quite to the contrary - yet many try... This is not saying you shouldn't try - but you must be a realist. This IS THE JUNGLE and while we may be hunters - many of us become the hunted...

If someone asked me how much I spent to learn to trade it would have to be several 6 figures... Now I have over 30yrs of this so it just keeps on going... Not necessarily paying someone else but in overall costs, offices, CQG, Satellite Data when I was out in LA before internet, etc... on and on and on... Software, Hardware, Overhead, Research, Opportunity Loss, etc. Fortunately for me with all the time and cost it is still my full-time income and I am and will always be dissatisfied with my performance.. I cannot imagine how an individual can mimic someone elses plan/process... I have met and had to opportunity to know some very successful traders during my career... We cannot clone each other - no matter how much we have in common... Can a school help? I think it can shorten the learning curve. The problem of course is can what you learn be converted into any yield at all? Is the school worth the powder it would take to blow it up? I wish I had the answer... that is why system trading is so popular...plug & play... after education and failure/frustration that is where many go... :helloooo:

Very interesting post, thanks.. If you recall, to what extent was this the operative part of this traders process?.. Was it quantified in any way? Did it only present itself at extreme moments or was it integrated into a consistent process? I think for some, these intuitive flashes are not necessarily quantifiable without creating randomness.. I suspect though that those of us who have been at this for some time have this awareness, as you referenced, lurking at various levels within us. If we could capitalize on the potential to leverage these integrated experiences.. then we could potentially substantially increase our P/L's. Question is: To recognize, harness it and convert it to yield... We would welcome suggestions: As you wrote../ How can we harness it and also potentially integrate it into our "conscious" skill set. Tx

That is the basis of the discussion. How to integrate it...without it creating conflict to the rule based/process side... One of my issues is I have trained myself to be (hopefully) consciously competent. What happens is the unconscious intuitive side recognizes market behavior, especially at market turns but the conscious side will disregard the information - actually "forget it" and even moments later act from the conscious side within the rules to step in front of a changing trend... What always amazes me when this happens is that I recognized it but even more important the "glimpse or flash" is gone when the conscious structure shows up moments or minutes later..

Reentered 1412.50 looking same target test of yest close 14.50. Last attempt.. UPdate: 9:32cst This trade , so far, came withing 1 tik of my stop... CLVN 1410.50 is what I was leaning against ..still with it... same target for scale and then test yest HOD.. depending on sense of smell may dump full position if we ge tto target... not out of the woods yet on this one... :doh: Edit: 9:44cst I bailed on this donated a point to the shorts...

Tookk long @ 12.50 target 1414.50 in front of yest close. will bail if it has trouble. Scaled half for .075 pt & stp B/E on balance... :helloooo:

Good Morning: I know some of you use the GBX session as part of the trading day, Steve comes to mind, and others don't. I am referencing Trend and integrating that session into your charts. I always have a bit of ambiguity when a GBX has hit a high/low in GBX at an important node/area 1419.75 - I have a CHVN @ 1419.50 and then comes back to the area of the previous RTH close... The issue is part of me sees that as potential rejection of that area, a high now in a short-term downtrend whereas my RTH charts show the trend strong to the upside - I'm sure you remember yesterdays strong pop at the cash close. Todays open will be in the area of yesterdays RTH close..so which information is more important for todays trade? 1. A high has been put in on GBX. Can we expect a rotational day - rest after yesterdays breakout to a new area as the market seeks balance and acceptance? 2. . The RTH will test and potentially take out the GBX high since RTH is where the volume is, etc.? 3. The GBX high is not material to what RTH might do today - trade with that Node still an open target to be at least tested? 4. The real important question for me is my charts are in a bit of a downtrend off GBX and my RTH in an uptrend.. Minor not Major...Trend is up but we do trade in a shorter timeframe.. SO which part of the direction short term is the starting place? Pick up from yesterdays close or the short term downtrend off GBX..how do you set your charts.. does it impact your view of the market & how.. ? I'm would appreciate hearing how you guys see it and how you integrate GBX into your plan.. and also how start the RTH session when the charts from GBX have information not on your RTH charts.. Tx

Actually the numbers are helpful but the further out they go the lower the probability they will get hit in a specific session... When I posted those they were outside numbers..they could just as well been hit tonight, tomorrow or never... They are market generated numbers.. However as the market approaches these numbers and assuming we are not too far from them then the probability of them being attained goes up... That is why I use them as scale points and also entry areas... It all fits together like a puzzle... (assuming I interpret it correctly - a whole other topic ) Market Profile helps understand the structure of the market.. From my point of view today was UP... Not hard to figure out... If you look at Friday that was it.. then overnight that move continued and with the recent high from 3/19 there was really only one way for that market to go - UP... at least to the high from 3/19 at 1408.00 that was IMHO, easy $. After that, then it was the Benchmarks VP Nodes which we discussed... There isn't really any way, to "know" how far the market will go - only what it's potential is...the schedule is up to the market and its participants...

Yes they are the same... I anticipate them and I like to pick up continuation trades or scales depending on which way I am positioned... The Profile helps to see where price "should" be located and the prices that are important to position in the area of. Hope this helps..

How do you think I feel.. My last scale 1409.50 ... :crap: I posted the 1416 number early this morning..but ran out of scales..the 1416.50 qualifies as the "Hail Mary Pass." :rofl: I should add the CLVN is not MY number but the Market's number.. It is there for everyone to see..

I guess the point here is there is tremendous power in intuitive side of our brains.. Great traders, athletes, fighter pilots, etc - require high level performance in highly stressful, in-the-moment scenarios. Trading often is an in-the-moment process.. with extreme volatility and 2 opposing forces either fighting it out or everybody running to one side of the boat or the other... I know we have our levels, etc that we all watch.. most of us probably, subject to timeframe, are acting off of the same stuff. Indicators, if leaned on, are probably based on the same price based methodology..it is very redundent, IMHO... The variable in this are not the technical tools but the mental process to align whichever tools to the mental state of the individual trader and also the ability to recognize opportunity when it presents itself... In trading, true opportunity doesn't wait too long... that is where the unconscious competence aligns with the conscious... I suspect. Purley mechanical, non-descretionary, rule-based system traders have removed not only descretion but the need for "unconscious competence." Yet, I do not know of ANY system that can outperform a "successful" descretionary trader. Now descretionary does not mean operating without rules or process but the variable of descretion might mean bending the rules or adjusting based on how the market behaves, etc. (all subject to timeframe, etc) Siuya, one of the things you repeat often is to avoid marginal trades. Does your conscious or unconscious competence help you discern the difference? Is it rule based or if you are on a move and it has already moved a high percentage of a daily range is that what you base it on...or is it subtle, rotations, Delta, Retracements, etc, etc... Depending on how you quantify it..it can be either rule based - "Conscious Competence" or subjective - "Unconscious Competence." How do you handle it? Tx

Yep..Dem Bums..CHVN 1413.25 and the winning lottery ticket CLVN @ 1416.50...

I found your previous response most interesting. The point I was making about the "unconscious competence" was how to get it to not be in conflict with the "conscious competence" - the need to follow structure or decision making matrix. The "unconscious competent" sees it all in the collective moment while the "conscious competent" may operate a slower/lower level decision making process..

Update: Got my final scale 1409.50.. CLVN: 1410.25 hit to the tick as of 2:06cst...

I didn't reference that BB doesn't work..it is on my screen and it does help me see congestion..I do use it if we are in a rotational condition as a place to lean on.. Another reason is because many others use it and I can see their activity when those edges are hit... I personally do not use it to trade the rotations...only when I have alignment with other tools since I expect the other guys to be active in those areas..

Got Second Scale @ 1407.25, now targeting last 1/3 @ 1409.50, 3 tic in front of CLVN 1410.25. There is still a chance for next level up 13.00 - 16.00 area but that is for someone else to seek.. also Profile structure is not exactly overwhealing.. at the moment...

Steve: I use the BB's but mostly to see volatility contraction Coils & trading ranges, etc. I also like using a 20SMA since we seem to revert to it.. If things align at the 20SMA with my other technicals... it does provide a bit of "comfort" to lean on.. It is just a marker not anything more... Also if I am at one extreme of the band and it aligns I will also use it and potentially scale at 20SMA and target a scale on the otherside of the BB... 2.00 - 2.5 Std DEV... My targets are typically nodes but if I need something to lean on along the way and I don't have much else to lean on I will use them but they are not primary... but a tertiary tool.

Based on the consolidation as of 12:32 cst this stucture is projecting up to potentially 1413.00 area... I am still looking for 1407.25 & 1409.00 area after that?? The Profile is fat so other than a burst to the upside I don't think we will go into hyperdrive but I know I don't know... SO I am going to look for my scales and go from there...

No disagreement, This is comment is also a general response in addition to MM.. A fighter pilot must juggle an infinite number of variables which are not repetitive..Trading also has variables that are unique to the situation.. however, both skills have repetitive responses with variable inputs... Can the "unconscious competent/intuitive" side process these variables and come to a rapid conclusion - in the moment and take action vs a conscious process that most likely takes longer.. ? In the case of an athlete, fighter pilot or trader, I suspect if the intuitive process could be actually developed to a higher level of function it would give the trader a signifigent advantage over other competitors just like it does for other high competence activities... I believe those with time and success under their belts, to varying degrees possess this.. Question is: Can it be recognized? Can it be developed and harnessed? Can it be quantified? Think about when you are long and you see price moving up and get banged at a high... you might not necessarily wait for an indicator to cross - maybe you do if that is your plan..but if you see the force of the rejection..if you just hit the exit button.. it is reflexive - a response to experience, intuition, unconscious competence... (hopefully). How often do you just click the button without all the squiggles to support it? How often do you put a position on without "confirmation"? Isn't that part of the "unconscious competence/intuition" at work.. ?

Thanks for the post. Can you comment on what is the basis for this...

Good exit, IMHO... I got a buy signal 03.75... for a potential continuation & upside rotation... I did not take it since I only have one scale out and it would basically just put my full boat back on with the same initial risk and no price advantage.. This is still in park but until it violates the open I am still with it... If we can get past the midpoint then this will look better than a dung heap...

Hey!!: Hit the Green button, Not the Red one.... Edit: BTW: I can see the rationale for the short... I have a number of things saying we will rotate down... how far, of course is the question.. I posted my potential downside earlier... but I am trying to stick with a longer (?) term timeframe and tolerate these rotations against me... I am trying to stay with the trend and not play counter-trend...this is absolutely no judgement on your timeframe... All counter-trend trades have the potential to be the beginning of meaningful reversals... Personally I do not have the agility to "dance" with the market like that... :rofl: Edit: That Mid-Point looks very attractive to me but a bunch of my technicals are now suggesting to me to exit... I am going to lean on the structure...might be wrong ... Only one way to find out.... :missy:

BTW: As you know I like the 15m bars to kind of see the lay of the land... currently it is a bullish configuration but it needs to make a new high to get going... currently the 1410.00 area is a potential target if we assume this might be a developing Flag... you know I see them in my sleep...The projected target also aligns with the CLVN @ 1410.25 at this time...

Thanks Josh.. BTW, I wrote a bunch here about my experience Friday. It also was the same issue on the Shorts late in the session Thursday with that move off the low ..I also started a thread on "Unconscious Competence" which I think is an element to all this.. Anyway I hope you get a chance to check them out and throw your in.. Yep. 01.75 open.. I am trying to focus more on market structure.. so eventhough things got testy before the news and I knew I could get wiped off the map..there was no reason to bail..other than my fear of loss.. Now my Delta, etc.. dropped like a stone and I almost pulled the trigger but price was not behaving as I expected with the Delta dropping like that... My short-term indicators went into sell but the structure didn't... I got confused and almost bailed myself but the structure hadn't been violated and my risk was based on the structure..so I stuck it out.. I also see another buy set up against the 1404.25..but there is not enough room otherwise it would be a spot to either add or initiate a continuation but the risk is still to that structure..IMHO... IF it kicks in... Edit..since we have 2 15m bars with 1404.25 I "suspect" that will get ticked and the mid-point 1404.00 will be the area to be tested... We could also lift out of this range.. The 15m bars are overlapping so it will come out one way or the other... Path of least resistance typically is for the easy stops right below at mid-pont and then others may be buyers there..always is possibilites/probabilities