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roztom
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Everything posted by roztom
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Here's some "Market Logic." Since we failed to make a new low on that test of the low especially against the 15m bar...something I personall like to read...then the path of least resistence is to rotate up for the stops on the interday shorts - weak hands...how far do we rotate? Where would they be sitting? IBL & 1405 -1406.00 IMHO If you look at 15m bars, imho you often can clearly see where the nearby Swing H/L is that most interday stops will be clustered at..that along with the VP is where I look for continuation trades or if violated by more than a few ticks the possibility of a change in Trend.. interday... not that any of this matters - pure conjecture... :missy:
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1403.75 IBL & current MP lvn is an interesting spot to consider an add or is taken out I am off the short & will stop out B/E on last 1/3... :helloooo: 15m bar very imp't here. Bailed balance 1401.75..not sure it is over to the downside but we tested key 15m bar so rotation up possible to test IBL... IMHO ..
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I'm sure you have a good reason for picking a level to go long at that level... WOuld you mind sharing Why? Tx
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94.00 looks like a bit of a reach but ACH but technically it is possible... I personally always look at this as the necessary rotations to fry the weak hands and for the big boys to load up..doesn't mean that is what it is... in a Up Trend, with the power we've seen then the extended target "might" be tougher to get to..like that NVPOC @ 77.00 we were looking for on Friday or whenever.. I try to put these targets in context of the bigger picture but I am blessed with the knowledge that I know I don't know... The clusters of stops to me are the high probability targets and as we go further out the probabilities go down, especially if you consider this a counter-trend rotation, IMHO.
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I use sense of smell... sometimes these trades stink or is it me??? :rofl: N: N: SOme people use Everything but the kitchen sink.. In fact watch for my new trading book: "Trading With Everything Including The Kitchen Sink." :helloooo:
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Good risk management..I feel like a cork in a tempest today... :helloooo: UPdate: Pulled my stop to B/E 1405.00 since I have poor trade location & we bounced off CLVN 1401.75..glad I scaled in front there... just in case
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Scaled 2/3 @ 1402.50 as prev posted...last scale target 99.00 in front of NVPOC 98.50, CHVN 98.50 & naked close 97.75...that's all I know..:missy:
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Short again 1405.00 in the hole..hope I can learn : last time honest... :crap:
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Then follow your beliefs: Don't Trade It... Right thing for you..
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Well... out, off shorts...a lot of work for very little... 2- sided trade at the moment... hope you guys are doing ok with this... not an easy read imho...
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s. 1406.75... Helmet on..
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shorted 1407.00 lost 1.25 pts, re-shorted 1407.25.. scale , 1405.00, nxt 1402.75 in front of CLVN 1401.75... nxt 98.50 area... If I see rotation to 1406 area + mid-point might add... :helloooo: Covered all 6.75... aside for moment... GRRR:confused:
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I am looking to short side early & long down there...subject to... of course... good trading all...
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Agree...I posted my preference to see them test Mondays low & take the stops..that doesn't take away from higher value...I do not trade value in that sense... but I do look at what the market is trying to do - it is going higher but it does need to get the weak hands out and advertise for more buyers. I have CLVN 1401.75 but that area is vulnerable with the gap.. I think we will see activity there but also with that gap it could get turbulent... NVPOC 98.50 & CHVN 98.50 & an open CLose @ 97.75
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John I concur with FXGirl & Laurus12, this is a very good summary and also articulates the pitfalls of discerning between the emotions and the flashes of insight... Have you come up with any Stat's (and I understand this is specific to you not a generic answer to the question) that support a consistent pattern of higher performance? Is it possible to recognize this "unconscious competence" and seperate from "fear & greed?" Is there a different signiture or a way it can be recognized or do they both "look" the same? I'm curious if you or anyone else has had any opportunity to evaluate this or sort it out.. Tx for your contribution..
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One thing I always consider, no matter what the bigger picture - is where are most of the stops going to cluster on the other side of the trend? That as of now, imho is under CLVN at 1401.75..& Mondays low... Of course I don't know if/when we might test there but those are usually magnets for auction activity.. But if the Bulls are ravenous then they will buy anything & it doesn't matter... Friday & Monday are very powerful days...
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I am certainly biased to buy breaks especially for a test of yesterdays high or VPOC...Right now we are in the middle but it is still early.. I do like that we tested the NVPOC 1405.00 in GBX. and had a nice move off it right up to yesterdays VPOC... Interesting... :missy:
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Thoughts for Wednesday 3.28.12 Market rested yesterday and had some responsive selling, especially when it looked like longs bailed at the end of the rth session.. GBX session held the Mondays VPOC @ 1405.00 and even with yesterday sell-off into the close we are building higher value.. As of 6:19cst Previous VPOC's have moved higher as have Value Areas in RTH. Potential for a trading range to develop with probes on both sides.. being mindful of open gap below.. Trend, of course is Up...
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Yes I think it is updating in realtime.. I guess typically those nodes are pretty well established... You use the same set up as me, right? IRT, 405m, I go back to 2007..which should even make it more stable at that level...don't you think?
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Interday they jump around..it is like as the day is crossing the nodes from the previous day that the volume is changing so they are moving..similar to what the Micro's do so when I glance over at my Daily 405m the nodes have moved... It has to probably do with the fact we're up in thin air..that's all I think of to account for it... Have you seen this? This is the first day I've ever seen it... but we're at a new high area... My 405m is set to 2007..
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N. & Josh: Since we've gotten up to this level my nodes are now changing interday on my 405m chart... so I am changing them on my shorter timeframes... You guys seeing anything like that? Are you moving the Nodes as they change?
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This is like watching paint dry... good luck... What are you referencing? Yesterdays Mid-Point, MLVN 1408.00, etc? 1407.25 is kind of a number CLSW
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Welcome to the discussion... based on your understanding is their a way to integrate this skill or is it just too random and unstable an occurance to help yield? Does "conscious competence" ie. process & discipline always trump the "unconscious competent?" Is the "conscious competence" where the highest consistent yield can be obtained? Is it realistic to try to integrate the two or are they somewhat conflicting forces to sucessful trading in your opinion? Since you are a professional in this area of trading performance your contribution is most welcome and appreciated.
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What is your experience?
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I almost passed out when I read this... now I know what I should have done with all the trading books I donated to the book fairs.. :doh: