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roztom
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Everything posted by roztom
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Certianly agree... that is what makes a ball game..possibilites, probabilities and stepping into the unknown.. that is what we do... @ 2:05 I have no clue if we are going to make a new high... seems complacency or confidence for the shorts... still I am long with helmet on and a free shot to 95.00 ..I guess that is "trading." Edit: 2:11 cst.. Flat all targets for long achieved.. :missy:
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Are we going to trade contracts again?
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Targets: I want to add something about how I "try" to visualize targets.. Of course I have the same levels more or less that you guys do but I also have to put them in context of timeframe.. that level below we have discussed 80ish is still a working level to me BUT here is where it gets crazy where is it easier for the market to go (theory) ? I believe up... Stops = closer...easier ... just the way I try to visualize the potential... think where stops and weak hands are located in addition the the longer timeframes... How far? No clue since this might be just responsive short covering and not initiative buying..(My vote right now). Here's the thought..we trade in the daytimeframe but if you pulled your microscope out & thought of it as a position trader then where would your target be? IMHO 80.25 - 77.00
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While ACh, I personally always think in terms of fuel...seems to me if I was going to be a seller and I wasn't short that I would want to sell higher up... Also since this is probably just short covering it can runout of steam anywhere... However, my technicals turned around 11:20 ish or so as I posted... that for me BTW does not mean go long, it means don't go short... Now we are in the go long mode but the ship has sailed for good trade location, imho...
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Now you tell me... :crap: I got my first scale, 93.00 Stop B/E... :rofl: As a wise man once said: ACH...
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Personally no...I do think todays high is more relevant since many shorts to cover prob yest NVPOC 95.00 ish good target .. Trend - depending on time frame may still have more to go to 80.25 but maybe they have to bust the weak shorts before they do... I am looking for more short covering since yesterday we didn't get enough, IMHO... but ACH
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Thought I'd sashare this: My trading brain is in neutral: We are in a trading range here... I look at the volatility envelope or just 15m bars... If we take out 91.00 then 95.00- - 96.00 is on the plate.. I am keeping on my toes since we will go one way or the other If I was going to "guess" I would say up...but that is only a "guess" right now..mkt is short... Edit: I fibbed as I posted this I went long: Targeting 93.00 & 95.00 :crap:
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I've been watching Delta around those VPOC shifts to see if I could see any relationship... Around 12:40 cst the Delta dropped and the VPOC shifted - correct me if I'm wrong on the timing and the mkt came off also I am getting short term sells..manic trading are us - not selling just FYI...
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Agree...the issue with all this is that we have no clue "when" (or if) any target will get hit.. or how we will get there -the path.. I asked if anyone was short out of respect for shorts and nobody responded so I assume nobody is.. My "tech's" say we bottomed... or at least no short positions..this happened shortly after I posted about the VPOC shift around 11:20cst ish... not saying that was it but everything is turning up here.. Now I am NOT on a long and I could care less about it BUT we could get up to 95-96.00 .. not a recommendation, etc..just "speculation." :helloooo: Also we could just rotate and the sellers could return later...I don't know... (right now)..
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I prefer the more structured entry...The structure causes me to wait for it along with the key level for activity... Often the market will give head fakes and get you in on a Zig and then Zag putting you (me) at a disadvantaged trade location..To me getting good trade location is key since it frees everything else up to flow.. I still use structured pre-planned targets but for some reason The market doesn't always see it the same way... :doh: This can cause consternation for me since over the course of rotations my Mind says time to bail, etc... but that can be fear of loss... Can't really make a judgement on it... Seems sometimes that "if you know you don't know" then put it in the hands of the market to prove you right or wrong... I'd prefer to have some kind of mindful insight but it may just open the door for randomness as we've discussed. However, I AM going to see if I can get to a more peaceful place while trading and try to allow more creative insights in... Great discussion.
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Is anyone still positioned Short?
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VPOC Shift to 88.00 @ apx 11:20cst.. I wish I "really" knew it's signifigence at this time & price... Delta is going up so is that short-covering or what...Wish somebody with some definitive understanding would post on the other thread we started but nobody has..
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Josh is body surfing... :rofl:
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I want to mention those 15m bars again - just a personal preference... 15m is reasonably signifigent interday Swing H/L's. I look for where these areas are in relation to the VP and also as location for stops to help create trade for the rotations... If things align I postion in these areas, assuming alignment with other tools or exit an existing postion as refernced at the 87.00 ish level going down... I think depending on how aggresive you want to be you can scalp these rotations especially the early ones as they test back against the early impulse... as far as how many times ..that I do not know... What I "believe" though is that if we don't break, eventually those who have been selling the rotations will cover and then we go North..I do not have a way of knowing except if the obstacles going the other way are violated.. it would not be terribly out of line for this to rotate during lunch - how far - no clue at the moment... Personally, at this time the long side is not where I'm headed unless the structure changes.. Again this is banter and just how occasionally I read it... Hope this helps any of you that are interested and that this provides some value.. :missy:
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I want to revist this post... Josh you are "on the $" on your scale... In my "rotational view" there were stops potentially on the other side of those 15m bars if you look at those you will see the retracement up on 10:15 cst bar to test the 9:30 cst bar.. it one ticked it - easy $ (stops) also 91.25 interday lvn..there was urgent selling there so a rotation for a test & to get the easy stops was "logical." On the other side we needed a test of the 15m lows at 87.50 - which we got...which is why I waould scale there - which Josh did - Good job, IMHO... Now what? DOn't know: Can go either way or rotate or continue down... If we take the F period current LOD then South buy South West to targets alreadyt articulated
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I did not add since I am already short but I did consider scalping and I show a lvn 91.25 so that was where I would ahve been stalking... adding..right spot, IMHO... The close if the current 15m bar coming up at 10:30 cst is imp't based on how I trade stops under 87.75 potential..foe a test after that - it can go either way.. Of course follow your plan..mine can be wrong as well as anyone elses... :helloooo:
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Right...so how are we doing so far?
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If you don't like where the line intersects - you can always move it... :rofl: Just messing with ya...
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As Josh says: ACH..but I have embraced Auction Theory even before I studied MP with Stedilmeier (sp?). Of course, I didn't have a name for it at the time.. it just was something I observed.. it actually was a function of losing $ because initially I would put my stops with everyone else and then those lousy floor traders would run the stops but that wasn't really what was happening.. I came up with another explanation and that is when I formed my own understanding of rotations or the auction process... As you guys know I look for this process as a necessary function of the market to "facilitate trade." I look for it on all timeframes..you guys know how I look at targets.. BTW I am making no claim that this is the "right stuff." It is just my If I look at the chart the low down at 80.25 is a single and a CLVN...Longs wanted it bad there. It is also an important low... Doesn't it make sense that there is a "high" potential that "might" be revisited to get those stops and clean them out? There is that NVPOC at 77.00 - Isn't that a magnet? This is how I see the process...with respect to anyone who sees it differently.. Of course this is a bull market and the longs may perceive value before we get there..but there is a ton of paper there.. just a view that gives me rational for how the market works..I am not saying it is correct in this current market - IMHO nothing ever is...
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I hope nobody #%&@ slaps me for this..but when I sell just off the high and get lets say 2/3 of my scales and I'm holding runners, etc... my self talk says - "Wow, I'm good at this." There is another side that says "Stop that and reigns it in to try to get to a Neutral Objective State... BTW, just to be balanced, I also have the other self-talk.. "Gee, You Suck..what were you thinking?" Either way as soon as that appears I basically throw it out and see it as a dangerous state of mind... The challange is when the same self talk that says get out here is attached to the "I suck" self talk and the "I'm Good" self talk causes me to color or distort what is going on...and look for the poition to be the "Hail Mary Pass" with an extended target... even if it is a viable target but low probability.. I do tell myself I know I don't know but I discipline myself to wait and see and often it can ride all the back to my entry - I'm talking runners... Now you're going to say do the metrics make sense overall and I'm going to say it depends on ATR and I am not that good at that in the daytime frame..How many times does it take a day or two to get to a target - daytime frame again here... I have had to try to use rules to take those issues out of my trading. While I can recognize the self-defeating self-talk and can shut it off.. I cannot discern when I am still subliminally in the "I suck" state of mind and tell if my urge to dump a trade is colored based on that emotional angst or true right brain insight... If I can calm myslef in time I can refocus and become objective..if not impulse can take over... I try to lean on rules and let the market make those "judgements" for me... I am going to open myself to more right brain thinking / Trading.. I find that if I can calm the chatter than it can come through.. I don't have a description for that state of mind..Maybe that is what being in the zone really is...
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Well, got my 88.50 scale holding final "runners" for 80.25 area... As usual...clueless as far as where we will end up... but at some point (maybe) 80.25 is "loaded" with paper...
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What is PW - Prev Week? tx
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Well, missed my next scale.88.50. - trying to be "disciplined." Rode it ALL the way back up - hate this @#%&.. Stop B/E on 2/3 position... :doh:
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S. 93.50,against CLVN 94.25 risk to NVPOC took 1 scale at Open obscale, holding 2/3 going to scale 87.75 ish Main target... 80.25 CLVN ..
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Currently I see no reason for longs...the market is showing no rejection of the selling so far... I have CHVN 87.75, CLVN 80.25 and the all popular 77.00 ish SUPP.. GOd help us all...