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What do you mean by 5 minutes to figure it out?
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Ok, so I've never done any modeling or really any hard core analysis before. Please tell me what steps I should take and what I should not do. Goal: Find x% chance that a return of y will occur based on historical returns. Time: 380 days including non-trading days. Steps: 1) Get daily closing prices for the asset. 2) Find 380 day returns. For example, if today is day t, take price t/(price t-380)-1. Do this for all days except for the first 380 days of the asset's inception. 3) What should I do next? Plot a frequency distribution by rounding the returns to 2 decimals? Any other ways to do this? What should I do?