slick60

A 15 minute chart below with a possible EW pattern on it coming to fruition is shown. For Mystic's unknown analyst this may be a fitting picture. B U T do not expect what this guy was saying at this time. Upon completion of this pattern I see a retrace in the works of this move down before continuation to the downside. A 15 minute market profile chart of the 6A is also shown with a couple thoughts on it with regard to expected price movement. I do not keep a forex profile chart. Also shown in this post is an alternative EW pattern in the works on the weekly chart. This would correlate with the price movement in the DX that I foresee in the above post. A triangle is a rare pattern in Elliott and is often disguised in the form of a double three. This fits that bill to a tee at present. Crystal balls can become clouded though if you shake them so be careful and let price action be your guide. Look to take advantage of news announcements that create opportunity for the market makers and go with them. Generally this entails a contrariam opinion to the perceived news release. 15 min 2012-08-19_1215 - slick60's library profile 2012-08-19_1219 - slick60's library weekly 2012-08-19_1219 - slick60's library slick60

The Euro and the Aussie that I mainly follow these days are both paired up with the dollar. I do not follow the DX as much as I should so putting in some Sunday morning time on it today. Couple charts below give a longer term perspective of the DX with regard to Delta points as I follow them. The dollar was KING back in the 80's for you people who were alive at that time and has been falling from grace ever since. There are several Elliott wave patterns that come into play but will not go into them here. Too many traders consider EW to be hokey-pokey. (Not so!) We are working to some larger time frames into the end of Dec this year and possible into the March 2013 period. I prefer the earlier. A couple targets shown on the monthly chart for retrace and projection levels. I have found that the DX is quite exacting when it comes to fibonacci retrace levels. Take note on the weekly chart. I am researching the DX for correlation with the pairs mentioned at present. weekly 2012-08-19_1052 - slick60's library monthly 2012-08-19_1053 - slick60's library Pay attention to this index. If it goes north in all liklihood the aussie and euro will go south. slick60

Obsidian It certainly was a good shorting opportunity around 8:15 am this morning. Chart of 6A futures attached 2012-08-19_1110 - slick60's library slick60

Continuing with the last post about an Aussie turn the break of the ITD 9 low pretty much confirms that the larger red MTD cycle high is in place. As mentioned above we should now experience a down move into the mid September. If this pattern does continue to forge out a 5 wave triangle it would not be unusual for the 5th wave which we have now embarked upon to truncate. I would look strongly at lows coming in around the 50% and .618 retrace levels to usher in a reversal to higher highs. See what type of price action comes in at these levels together with the volume. I suspect a sharp increase in volume at that reversal to the upside. Note these levels on the daily chart below. Near term trading I have posted below a 4 hour chart with highs and lows due on average for this week ahead. One caveat here is that around the 12 and 1 points it is possible for the market to invert point wise. Often times it is a bitch to know exactly which way the market wants to go. Be careful going full bore during this week. I anticipate a move up retracing since we have hit the parallel trend channel 1 bar early of the 12 average low. What kind of a three wave pattern will form into that September low remains a mystery at this time. I shall monitor price action and post when I may be able to enlighten. daily 2012-08-18_2116 - slick60's library 4 hour 2012-08-18_2116 - slick60's library Trade with care my friends slick60

Taking a look at the Aussie today there exists the possibility from price action that we may have seen the high for this current move. The Delta point chart below shows we may have come to the high a couple of days early in an uptrend at a blue ITD and red MTD high. It is the third ITD point in a row which means it should not be late. You can see when the blue 10 high is due on average along with the larger time frame MTD 4. As I have posted in the past this appears to be a 4th wave correction of a pattern that dates back a number of years. It appears to be making this move in the form of a triangle coming just a few pips away from the down trend line shown. I look now for a three wave pattern to go south and will monitor price action as it retraces. We should see down action now until about the middle of September where the MTD 5 and ITD 2 reside on average. 2012-08-14_1938 - slick60's library Good trading folks. slick60

Hey Jayson Why is it that you are bullish the EURUSD? A lot of negatives why it should still be tanking and a lot of traders thinking this way. I have here a snap of a daily chart showing delta cycle points. If we can get the red MTD 4 confirmed in early behind us I would have to think that we are going higher also into the fall at least. The 1.2480 level looks like a possible pausing area if we can put in the new high shortly at the blue ITD 10. In an uptrend this point can come in late as was witnessed in the Aussie of late. 2012-08-09_1846 - slick60's library slick60

Rather than attempting to predict where price is going today I want to share a snap I made for you to show how price reacts to the quarter points. You may see them as support and resistance or as I do as visual points of reference. I have mentioned early in this thread the Quarters Theory and I am quite sure everyone here is using it and has downloaded the book. This assists me to see where is a possible entry or exit point on a trade. What is the action that price is showing at these points? Has heavy volume come in to blow it through one of these areas targeting the next quarter? Have we made a higher high or lower low on less volume while coming into one of these areas indicating a possible reverse? Have we completed the important "large quarter"? Are we at a hesitation zone before or after the large quarter? What is price action at these hesitation zones? Is it going sideways as is the case ending the day on Friday? This indicates to me that we still have one further wave to the upside that will put in a new high on the euro showing continuation of the trend. I hope these snaps help you to gain some understanding of how price moves in the currency markets. 2012-08-05_0751 - slick60's library 2012-08-05_0800 - slick60's library Good luck traders. slick60

I am not about to give up on placing delta points. Once again on the daily chart below you will see that I have the high of today number an ITD blue 8 high. It is late in the cycle to where it comes in on average, (frustrating as hell) however this will make the 8 point coming in this late 12 1/2% of the time in the last 10 years of cycles that I have. I am now looking for an ITD 9 low very soon OR maybe not! The run to this high is exactly 1,000 pips and it took 62 calendar days to complete. Nice numbers fibo wise but what do they mean? At present I am looking for an approximate .618 retrace of the last move up, a continuation into possibly the 1.0675 level for the ITD 10 and MTD 4 combination as shown. Note the Quarters points chart how the Aussie like to stop at "hesitation zones". We hit one today. Wild day traders! Crazy! daily 2012-08-02_1808 - slick60's library Quarters chart 2012-08-02_1809 - slick60's library Watch those higher highs and lower lows. They can whip you out of a lot of your money very quickly. slick60

Hi MM Perhaps "group prayer" may work - lol. All kidding aside, I know that you are an apostle of higher highs and higher lows to determine the up trend which is certainly the case in the Aussie this last little while. My question to you is when do you make your entry trades to catch the train in the right direction? And when do you get off before the train derails? Thanks slick

I believe we have a high in place for a move now into the ITD 9 low point shown on the daily chart. It is due on average on Monday the 6th. The last few retraces down have been rather fast and I suspect this one will also be the same perhaps retracing to the lower trend line shown and the .786 level. The retraces have been 3 or 4 days and with the NFP coming in on Friday that is 3 days. Would not surprise me to see the 9 low put in early. This is a strong move up and the ITD 8 was late indicating to me we have further to go into the ITD 10 high and MTD red 4. They are due about the 13th of August. The 1.0253 .786 is at a large quarter and should contain. To the upside I suspect at this time a move to the 1.0575 level which is the "hesitation zone" above the large quarter of 1.0500. The Aussie likes to turn at these zones or large quarters quite often. It fits the bill. Let price be your guide and watch for volume increases for signs of reverse when these zones come into reach. Note the 4 hr points chart. daily 2012-07-31_2030 - slick60's library 4 hr 2012-07-31_2031 - slick60's library Good trading people. slick60

This is a relentless slow move up but will correct. Perhaps we are very near to that level now. Here is a revised count of the 4 hour points as pointed out from a friend who follows this this. Hope this helps - look at the possible triple top at the inverted [1]. Are we there yet? The ITD 8 high is overdue so now leaning to the alternate 2nd look picture of the longer term points. Thank you to "Fatechaser" 4 hr chart 2012-07-31_0734 - slick60's library Let price tell you when it has had enough!!!!! slick60

At present it appears that the blue ITD 8 high is in on what looks like a narrow trading day. I tried short at the 1.0490 level and got out with a few pips. I am waiting to see if we can get a pullback to the Major midpoint / large quarter at 1.0500 again. We spent 36 minutes at that level initially, came down and crossed through to try higher. It appears that a stop and reverse zone is being built up by the bid/ask market makers as they balance their accounts. The 4 hour 1 high point appears to be in which leads me to believe that the ITD 8 has arrived. There are a number of scenarios that can play out in here near term. Let price be your guide. 4 hr chart 2012-07-30_1241 - slick60's library Updated daily 2012-07-30_1242 - slick60's library slick60

The Delta Phenomenon/Market Matrix is not precise. It does give a generally good direction. However at the 1st and last point of a cycle the points can invert and often do. The Aussie has this scenario at present with the red MTD points. Also note that very often with an inversion a large move will take place. Once again note the [ inversion ] points on the chart below and the large move into the [1] low point. This is a 2nd scenario that is quite possible compared to that shown in my last post. I hate the uncertainty that inversions make but have to accept what price tells me for direction as the points play out into the future. If this proves to be the case then the blue ITD 8 high can continue higher coming in late in an up trend. Let us see what price tells us at the start of this week. Should the ITD 8 point continue higher for a couple days watch as the ITD 9 low may come early and continue the strong move north into the 10 and red MTD 4 high due near mid August. Crystal balling is dangerous at the best of times let alone while we are in these crazy currency markets at present. The market manipulators are hard at work. Try to become a contrarian trader at news events where there are perceived "STOP zones" within easy reach. daily chart 2012-07-29_0859 - slick60's library Good luck folks cause we sure need it. slick60

Howdy folks. Analyzing the aussie on my return back to the pits it would appear that we are getting very close (if not there) for a reverse in this market. A number of charts showing the various delta time counts that I follow below. On the 4 hour chart one can see that we are nearing an area where the 1 high is due within a few bars on average. I expect that high may come in a bit early. Moving to the daily chart the blue ITD (Intermediate term delta) 8 high was due on average on Friday. Delta / Market Matrix rule - if a turn is due the point should come in early or on time. Another rule is that there cannot be more than 3 ITD points in an MTD (Medium term delta) time period. The red MTD 3 high is coming in late drawn late by higher time frames. The blue ITD 8 is the third point and a turn is due. You can see on the daily chart chart there is a confluence of fibonacci retrace levels where we are at present. Anything can happen and does in forex however I will be betting on a turn down into the ITD 9 and the MTD 4 into August. I am not comfortable with a wave count but it appears that a triangle may be in progress on the weekly and monthly charts. This pattern of course can morph into something other than what the crowd sees and quite often does. This is a long term pattern of retrace starting back in April of 2001 as seen on the monthly chart. 4 hr 2012-07-28_2022 - slick60's library daily 2012-07-28_2023 - slick60's library weekly 2012-07-28_2024 - slick60's library monthly 2012-07-28_2025 - slick60's library Good hunting traders and watch for the sharp shooters! slick60

Taking a weeks holidiay in an hour or so but thought would update last snap of the aussie with points. Moving along as I was seeing it in last post. We are at one of those resting levels at present. May continue right straight through. Appears a very robust market at present. Monitor the action as price moves higher to see if a reverse slips in here. 2012-07-19_0546 - slick60's library Best of luck people! slick60

We have not talked about the Aussie for a while. I have a snap showing Delta points for daily ITD and MTD below. At present we are moving up into an ITD blue 8 point high which is due on average the 27th of July but I feel it will be pulled in early regarding where the red MTD high is due around the middle of July. In the larger terms I feel we are building a 4th wave from the April 2001 low of 0.4775. We had two equal moves up in zig-zag form and now we appear to be making a triangle type of move from the 2011 high. We will have to see how it plays out. I am presently looking for this move to go to the 1.0472 level where we have fib confluence as shown. There may be a resting area at another fib confluence of 1.0425 area going up. 2012-07-16_1324 - slick60's library good trading folks slick60

It appears to me at the present time that we are currently in a corrective move which is taking on the shape of a double zig-zag in the euro. It is best observed on a 15 minute chart. We still have one leg to finish off the upside retrace which I feel will come in approximately at the 1.2338 level about 10:15-30 pm this evening. The 4 hour chart shows I am looking for a delta point high due on average on the 1am bar on the 10th. I am still looking for a daily cycle low to come in probably by about the end of this week on Friday. We have a couple of important fibonacci retrace levels in the area of 1.2225 and 1.2057 that I feel will be tested into that time frame. The 1.2225 level is the overshoot quarter of the 1.2250 large quarter which has already been tested twice. 4 hr chart 2012-07-09_1858 - slick60's library slick60

Here is a good case where "they" were pointing to the sky and I was looking up while they pulled my pants down one more time in bewildered embar-ass-ment. So goes the life of a prognosticator, soothsayer, crystal ball reader. Unfortunately that is what I have attempted to do most of my trading career. I will admit that I have found myself much more right than wrong but it really has not helped me to become a "better trader". If I can instill anything into a trader's mind set - that is to try to never come into a trading day with a bias formed for direction. Just let price do the talking and objectively follow with trade set-ups from market generated information that can be found using market profile. I still have years of tools under my belt that I will not be able to shed. However I will try to endeavor to place the right amount of importance on them in relation to market price in my trading. I still feel my delta timing cycles offer pretty reliable direction indication most times.Elliott wave patterns certainly exist but being able to determine when they are extending and morphing into something larger is still a mystery to most of us. With that said - who cares? Why do I try to find reversal points in the crystal ball? I really do not know. Nobody ever says "hey what a great call" or "you really suck" or anything like that. What the hell! Here is a 4hr chart showing potential price reversal points and a couple of fibonacci projection levels. There is a lot of confluence as price moves toward the 1.2225 area. This is an important retracement level from 2010. As you can see the 1.272 confluence level seems to have brought price to rest for the time being. The wave pattern tells me that we still have further to go and I look for that 1.2225 area low into this week coming. From that point I am still optimistic that we will see the 1.2747 level tested into the future. http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/a895d890-c0e7-4f59-a528-f4bbb57d764a/2012-07-07_1412.png Good trading folks. If you have something that works please post it here Thank you slick60

Like I said in my last post things appeared set for a go north unless------------- and that is what we got. The BIG BOYS slammed it south when everyone is thinking it should go north. Another expanding pattern that may find a low in the 1.2300 area before taking out the June 1 low. It will give us a chance to put in that higher move that I feel is still possible but really starts to get lost if that low is taken out. I still feel there is hope for an up market into the September time frame. My 4 hour 11 low was extended indicating lower prices to come and in they came with some pooh. We are now in to indecision time where the points can invert so waiting for a daily time frame low to come in by the 17th July. 4hr 2012-07-05_1429 - slick60's library Good luck traders - we all need that! slick60

The short trade at 1.2598 worked out well with a pattern reverse below the 1.2560 level. At present I am labeling the 4 hour 11 point low as in and am now looking for higher numbers. That is provided the BIG GUYS with money do not decide to push it over a cliff at this time. I have daily point highs that I posted a few charts back that I am now looking to fulfill into Friday or the first of next week. My first fibo confluence comes in at 1.2844. That may be high for this move as I was looking for an initial 1.2824 high for retrace. Will have to wait and see what price doles out to the soothsayer. Anything can happen and does! 4hr chart 2012-07-03_1147 - slick60's library Happy holidays and good trading everyone slick60

Hi sadscorpion. Okay will do in future. Looks like we are waiting for the next set-up after a couple stop-outs? slick60

Thanks Sadscorpion We will see how your trades go. slick

A quick post looking for a 4 hr 11 point low. Presently short at 1.2598 2012-07-03_0510 - slick60's library slick60

SS do you always use a 50 pip stop? I am presently seeing a lower low below 1.2568 before moving north again. I am short at 1.25988. Looking for a 4 hr 11 low to come in as shown on chart. Good luck with your trade. 2012-07-03_0510 - slick60's library slick60

Often times when the market zooms one way or another in a substantial move it will bring in a point high or low early. That is the case this time around I feel with my 4 hr 10 high I was looking for. You can see from my chart that we should have a low and another high into Friday sometime at the 12. How deep will we go and what form will it take, one has to wait? 4hr 2012-07-02_1200 - slick60's library slick60