slick60

Predictor Then market opens at 1447.75 and you are worried you may not get above 50. So you are going to try and get perhaps 2 points and bail? Market goes down 4 1/4 points and did you ride it south. Perhaps those sellers had already made their move? So buying at 1447.75 would be a higher risk trade? If so then why did you take it? That is what I am not understanding. Thanks slick

Hi Predictor What does this post mean? Sorry if I appear whatever but I don't get it. Thanks slick

Something I was looking at this morning was a hopeful retrace back up to a .618 level from the overall range since the 1468.00 high. Chart here shows a couple naked POC's that seem to draw price to them. Open coming. 2012-09-20_0742 - slick60's library slick60

Hi N I follow these markets using various approaches as I having posted on this thread in the past. At present a wave pattern is telling me that we should see a retrace back to the 1390.00 area ( I felt that was large in relation to what we have been seeing recently). Also the wave pattern says we have the possibility of an irregular flat correction that we are in at present that fibs out in the area of 1472-73.00 If the high is in place at this time or very soon to come with a little pop my Delta cycle work says we are running out of time for this high to come in and to start the correction into mid October at least. In an "UP" market this high can come in late however time is running out. The wave pattern is really hard to put a clear handle on it and I am not certain as to how far we will go down. On my daily chart there is a 50% retrace at a 4th wave level which should be a normal pull back area. Lower will not surprise me. daily chart 2012-09-19_2043 - slick60's library The weekly chart below shows the delta cycles into the future weekly 2012-09-19_2045 - slick60's library Same reasoning as I used in April looking the opposite way of most everyone at that time. Couple posts there on pages 443 and 452. Take care slick60

Looking for a high and reversal between now and Friday this week. Around the 1472.00 area would suffice for this high and then a nice sizeable retrace into October. Still have to get up above that 1600.00 level to end this baby for a really gooooooooood short. slick60

Yes, I can see how fast the euro is going down. It is only up 1,126 pips in the last 38 trading days zooming down past your short entry over 6 months ago. After giving up over 700 pips of a trade and totally annihilating your add on position below 1.2600 while the euro crashed and burned I think slick will continue to manage his own money. This kind of trading and money management is far too simple for me to grasp. Good luck traders. For the long term "investors" you may wish to follow the Mighty Mouse and his simple trading and money management system. slick60

Furthering my last post I have not given up on the impossible - that the euro may move south instead of north. I know that with the Draghi save the Euro scheme and Germany now going along (surprise) and the throw in the towel Obama QE3 out in the open what else will cause the euro to climb. Nothing! My opinion. We have done the shock and awe, made provisions to pay our friends ( who created all this toxic waste to begin with) who run the government in case we do not get re-elected. I can see no further reason to carry on this charade. I am still viewing a potential wave pattern into the future from a monthly chart. I hate to do it but I am looking at possible levels that may reverse this move for now. They are 1.3026 and 1.3111. The first takes in the overshoot quarter above the major quarter of 1.3000 and the 2nd takes in the 1.3080 gap fill back on May 7, 2012. If this move continues past tomorrow I will be perhaps leaning to continuation as all the signs point to where we should be going. Look at the DX chart alongside the Euro daily euro 2012-09-13_1958 - slick60's library dx daily 2012-09-13_1959 - slick60's library slick60

As I worked on my charts shortly after 4:00am this morning in my peripheral vision on one of my monitors I observed a red line plotting on my 2 minute chart from top to bottom very quickly. YES! Germany has come on board for the Eurozone plan and all will be just grand. Wait a minute the spear was falling and it should be going the other way. Aha! Give it another minute and now it was going to where it should have gone all along. Sooooooooo! Did anyone expect anything but? Now we have hit a .618 retracement and confluence of fibs on the daily chart at 1.2936. And we all know that QE3 is about to be unleashed tomorrow which will send this currency to the moon. Really? What if we are being set up by all the big names who take our money on a regular basis. Do you honestly believe that thems with the money don't know the news already. I am a bitch of a contrarian and often bite the bullet. Oddly enough the market does move with respect to fibs in more than one way. Elliott does in fact play a part for pattern recognition which of course nobody believes in because it is too subjective. I have the same daily chart below posted a couple days ago. It is really starting to look a little overdone to me even though all the good things in the world are about to happen to the Euro. I am now looking south once again and am seeing the 1.1660's in my crystal ball. I feel this move should take about three months into December. We shall monitor price movement and keep you posted should I be anywhere within the realm of sanity. Not to mention still being alive. Be careful of the news tomorrow. In all liklihood It will not be what it is perceived to be. daily slick60

There is one way to find a reversal high or low I find and that is for me to try and crystal ball the outcome of the game before the first pitch is thrown. Eating crow is a bit of a specialty on my menu at times. So with the FOMC meeting and setting coming up on Thursday this week it fits very nicely with a potential spike high reversal I feel. I will show a profile chart with all sessions merged since the 11:30am close of the European session on Friday past. We are building a big balance area that generally ends with an end of auction spike. In this case I think high. No matter what the result will be for the long awaited and baited QE3 to be or not to be news shall create the opportunity for the market makers to facilitate an opposite of perception move to trap everyone on the wrong side. This fits well with the Delta cycles that I follow and show quite often. We are coming into a cluster of highs that are due on average at this time. On the daily chart a magenta vertical line is drawn for Sept 13 news day. Horizontally see where the hesitation zone above the Large Quarter of 1.2750 is along with the yellow midpoint of the 2 LQ's. See how they come into play with the upper parallel channel that I have drawn. Scan left to the previous ITD blue 2 high and note the supply bar that came in on May 22 from that same hesitation zone. So I see a move to the 1.2825 to 1.2890 possible high area for a very tradeable short in that area. Watch price and volume. Do not be fooled by the market makers. UBS is yammering about an inevitable QE3 to come in. Everyone will see nothing but up on the euro should this occur. Be wary traders. profile http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/04f0936b-3ba3-4180-b325-dc27675772d7/2012-09-11_0635.png daily 2012-09-11_0745 - slick60's library Good luck folks slick60

I have been continuously short since march and as I noted in the other post I am staying short and will do exactly what I outlined. My stop is mid 1.27 No magic. Nothing to hide. Very simple trading and trade management combined with confidence, discipline, and patience. If I get stopped out, then you can add stupidity to the list too. Hi Mouse It looks like the list may be growing - lol slick

Gonna be some hot times in the ole town today and into next week I feel. The EUR rate setting is at 7:45am followed at 8:30am with the Draghi press conference. That is always good for some really quick moves. ADP also this morning and jobless claims. Tomorrow is the NFP. Hold onto your hats and try to catch a ride with the shifty market makers as they reverse direction. I am still seeing higher in the euro at present into next Friday the 14th area. The daily chart shows a potential Delta count that I am looking at and you can see where points are due on average. daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/0d725deb-ea33-4295-998e-feaa0ba5d6ec/2012-09-06_0506.png Happy hunting amigos slick60

I feel I would be remiss not to post an alternative view of the aussie as I am looking at it. In the weekly charts I am looking for a pattern down that would utilize a 3 wave structure top to bottom. In the daily shown here along with another 4 hr chart alternate ITD points are shown and a 5 wave move to the overnight low. It is quite possible at this time to see a move back to the 1.0400 area before continuation south. There is resistance at that level and it is also the area of the 2nd wave retrace as shown on the 4 hr chart cyan waves. Let price show you where it wants to go and catch the move with these posts as a possible guide to direction. 4 hr http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/89202650-acfd-4a19-90ba-cb16ea31ae13/2012-09-04_0551.png daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/3b368687-9e44-4f95-9515-25dd6d874129/2012-09-04_0551.png slick60

From my last post on the 4 hour chart it appears that our 8 low came in with the 9pm bar last night. The next high is due on the 1am bar tomorrow. There is news at 9:30 this evening that the market makers will use as an opportunity to churn the market to their liking. The GDP quarterly. The 9:45pm 15 minute bar has shown a propensity of late to create a reverse also. If the MM gives you the opportunity this evening "go with him" as the next low is not due until 1 am the following day. Remember at this time the low also has opportunity written all over it at 9:30pm with employment news due at that time. The overall trend is down in this currency for some time yet but beware of breathing areas of retrace. Daily delta points are still working in the inversion time area and a revision to my posted ITD's would not be a big surprise to me. Be careful folks - but take advantage of the MM opportunities. 4 hr chart http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/9bba2ed3-81f4-410c-88e5-75c73b89df33/2012-09-04_0501.png slick60

As you are aware I have been looking for a low to come in the aussie in order to get short with a reasonable retrace. The market movers just never let this happen and it is really hard to determine if you have had the turn or not. Looking at the daily chart below the ITD blue 11 low point has finally come in late and the 1 day retrace was it for the ITD 1 high. No retrace for me to jump on so I sit on the sidelines once again as we make new lows. I see us taking out the .9580 June 1st low before we make any run at new highs. We are at an inversion time where the delta points may invert - more uncertainty. The blue 2 low is due on average Sept 17. In a down trend this can be late as we head for the red MTD 5 low due around Sept 20. I am looking at .9176 to .9555 into latish October for this low to be in. You can see levels on the weekly chart below. Shorter term we have the 4 hour chart with an 8 low due around 5pm this evening. How the Labor day holiday is going to affect this point is a guess at best. [Note the 4 hr points have been inverted since my last chart] 4hour http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/f074ecac-f386-424b-97f8-930d39abb428/2012-09-03_0932.png daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/d76058c9-4807-44fa-95d5-3011b04df06f/2012-09-03_0934.png weekly http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/deacc206-2c8c-4cbb-b727-655d4e15ce31/2012-09-03_0934.png Good hunting traders. slick60

We did have weakness into the 9:30pm bar but not as much as expected. Made a low at that time and have started a sharp move north this morning around 8:00am. With a 4 hr point coming early, weakness into a low point is expected which did occur. The construction eco news was at the Feb 28/12 high and the May low. I guess we will have to see what the effect is on the GDP out next week. At present a retrace trade into a higher daily ITD blue point is in order BUT watch for a quick reversal in a down trending market. slick60

A quick post regarding the Aussie. On the 4 hour chart we are due on average for a low to come in on the 1am bar tonight. That would be bang on with a minor economic report coming out at 9:30pm this evening that the market makers may utilize as an opportunity to spike the currency and reverse. Note that I have the 5 low as possibly in. I feel this may be very possible in as much as the ITD blue 11 low point was due yesterday. However in a downtrend I fully expect the low to come a little later than usual since we are still trending down into an MTD low point due in the middle of September. Tonight would make it 2 days late. I will monitor price action at 9:30pm if I am still up at that time to try and catch a long down perhaps in the area of 1.0325 quarter point. This would be a trade to hold for a few days as we retrace upward. 4 hr chart 2012-08-28_1628 - slick60's library daily chart 2012-08-28_1628 - slick60's library slick60

Hi Asep Can you post a chart of what you are looking at? Thanks slick

A fairly strong day so far today in the euro suggests that perhaps we have seen a reversal low to allow us to move a bit higher. As we creep north towards Mighty Mouse"s 700 pip stop I am looking at the 1.2675 area as being a strong reactive resistance level. This is a level where supply overcame demand in the past in my view and will cause at least a pausing in the market. It is also the hesitation zone prior to the large quarter at 1.2750. Daily charts are previously posted. Good luck traders. slick60

Mouse You have really said nothing. Are you running for office? If not maybe you should consider that. This is what a politician might say. I ask for specifics and you give me this. Really! When did you get short? What was your entry level? How many thousand pips will it take for you to change direction? and and and and and C'mon man say it like it is. Spill your guts. Enlighten us please. Some people think you have words of wisdom. Share them. I hope this post does not piss you off. If you have some knowledge I am trying to draw it out of you for the traders to assist them. slick60

Hi MM We have gone through a change of HH and HL's as far as I can see from where you were short forever. Would you like to share some incite into when you change direction? I don't know if you are short or long at this time. Maybe if you could hone in on the time to reverse a little bit. What you say is very broad and involves hundreds of pips. I don't think the majority of the traders on this forum are looking for such huge moves before they reverse. I may be wrong but I know I sure do not want to give away several hundred pips waiting for a reversal in direction. Thanks a lot. slick60

As I mentioned earlier we are at the time frame when the delta points may invert. It appears that may be the case this time around BUT we still will not know for sure until the possible 2 high and 3 low come in. The possibility is that we had a 2 low and are moving up the the 3. Drives me crazy at times and wonder why I do it. Direction is nice to know and this is the only way that one may be able to see a bit into the future. Once the points are known it is a good way to forecast direction for an intraday move. At present I am sitting with a short entry order for 1.2596. We shall see how it goes into 7pm or so. This move may be done for now. Famous last words. 4 hr chart 2012-08-23_1445 - slick60's library I still feel we are going higher into the first part of September. slick60

For me it is hard to focus on more than one currency pair at a time in regular trading hours. The Aussie set up beautifully this morning when the euro was reaming my behind. We appear to be in our down move continuation looking for a low on the 4 hour chart by early Thursday morning. On a daily basis we have an ITD low due on Monday next week. How it gets there will no doubt be interesting. Let price be your guide. A market profile does certainly help to see what is going on intraday. Lst night's news at 9:30pm once again created the opportunity that I suspected. Of course it took place while I was in bed. Damn this sleep thing - it really gets in the road. 4 hr 2012-08-21_1557 - slick60's library slick60 I live in Canada eastern time zone. I would like to find a few select people who would like to trade together while working with the same thing. Many eagle eyes and a few opinions would be great. This would be done with a Skype group. My main interest would be trading the futures currencies. PM or Skype me if you are interested.

Euro retraced alright but a lot further than this cowboy was looking for it to go. Having taken out the highs brings another scenario into play. The EW pattern I was looking at was that of a triangle and I felt we would move south. The move down into 9:00am yesterday was the completion of a triangle which went north creating what I feel is going to be a flat correction. That meaning that we will come down now into what will be an ITD 11 low shown on the daily chart by Friday when it is due. The 4 hour chart indicates to me that our 1 high came in today at the high and now we look for a move south. The direction is highly probable but how it gets there is always a guess at best it seems until well into the EW pattern. I fought city hall today looking for shorts where the price action clearly said we are going higher. Dumb ass old habits are hard to shed. Let price tell you the direction intraday and try not to enter the day with a directional bias. I too will try to heed this instruction. 4hr 2012-08-21_1527 - slick60's library daily 2012-08-21_1528 - slick60's library Good trading everyone - make some pips! slick60 P.S. Quick note here - look for a possible opportunity to go short after the 2:00am Frankfurt open tomorrow. It may come as a failed test of today's high.

A quick post with a 4 hr chart of the eurusd. It appears to me at present that we are in a corrective move and looking for the 1.2128 level as a target at present at fib confluence. There appears a nice EW pattern on this chart that I think is in play. 4 hr 2012-08-20_0613 - slick60's library As mentioned above we are in an inversion time frame on this chart but it appears we are southbound into Wednesday at least. Take care slick60

Hi Mystic Check out my charts in this thread EURUSD Et Al Trading - Page 35 - Traders Laboratory - 11648 I think the 15 minute may apply at this time. slick60