slick60

Okay. If we have had enough fun on the upside then we should look to the downside. I now have a .618 retrace in the 1.2737 level where this market normally retraces to for the pattern that was laid out on the way up.. slick

If we have finally made our high of the day here are some preliminary levels to watch if the market move south. slick

I gotta post this chart - it blows my mind. I have just read over the weekend how to project a price move in a way that I was not used to. Look at the levels of retrace in this move up this morning as we closed in on the HOD so far. If this does not impress and maybe get a thank you I really don't know what will. I will post in a bit where I expect this market to retrace. slick

Another chart in line form with perhaps a completing count of this wave structure. Hard to know exactly where to measure an ending wave when you have a number of lows in the last wave to measure from. We are at a fib confluence area and resting/stalling or whatever at present. I should not be the one to call it done BUT is this the HOD? slick

Amazing - techsmith.com blacking out has screwed up my computer to where I cannot trust making a trade. I have been trying since my last post to take a snap of my chart which does not appear with "jing". Not able to use my screengrab program while jing is functioning/not functioning!!!!!!!!!!!! I closed this program and took the 15 min snap attached HOPEFULLY As I edit in here we have hit the 1.2817 level I was looking for and now....................... slick60

They did it again in the overnight session - moved the market north. I am just too old to work the midnight shift again. I envy you currency traders in the Euro/British zone. You have got it made for trading these. A daytime job!!! It is hard to get a totally correct wave count with the Asian drift sideways and patterns get pulled out of shape. Patterns get elongated - sideways - as what appears for the "D" wave shown on the 15 min chart. Couple interesting things about this count is that the final wave in the ending diagonal the way I count them is .618 times the "A" wave, a normal relationship. We still may pop higher a bit from here with an irregular start to a retrace wave. I feel that we have now completed a zig zag structure to the 1.2908 high. Is this all she wrote for the retrace move up OR do we now do a ranging sideways dance into a new high into next week? Time will tell. 15 min 2012-01-19_0547 - slick60's library slick On my chart I erred and put .518 instead of .618 at the "E" wave high. I have been trying to correct that snap and not able to using "Jing" - techsmith.com is obviously doing a blackout in protest of upcoming legislation re: the use of the internet. WE SOMEHOW ALL HAVE TO PROTEST SUCH A MOVE by the governments of the U.S.A and Canada where I live.

One of those crappy sit and watch days that is getting narrower by the move. Appears to me that we are building an ending diagonal pattern which consists of 5 waves all having 3 waves each. I have a 15 min chart to show with a potential wave count and as I keep mentioning this is probably the first section of a larger zig zag pattern still with some room to roam north. There is some fibonacci confluence at the 1.2917 level where I feel this wave structure may come to rest. Today at the 1.2863 level we hit a .618 retrace of the 2nd wave length from the original 1 - 2 down from 1.4247. At present I am still sitting with my thoughts of this market going higher over the next week and one half, after which we should have a good move south into a meaningful low for a long trade north. Good trading everyone 2012-01-18_1536 - slick60's library slick60

Another little pop in the euro similar to yesterday. London open and drive it down then reverse on the 4:00am 15 minute bar. My short term delta high is late which is a norm in an up market. A high is expected anytime now on this 4 hour bar until 9:00 am. The HOD may be in at this time. The next low is due 9:00am tomorrow morning. I still view this move off the lows as being the first portion of a zig zag corrective move. http://screencast.com/t/0Obv6xVU7wuy slick

Which way is this euro going to go. We all know it is on its' way to hell in a hand basket - right? Checking the open interest in the Euro Futures for the Friday down draft we find there was an increase of over 11,000 contracts on a down day. Short open interest is at record levels and mainly being taken by the large speculators. They are supposedly the Big money, the Smart money etc blah blah blah. Here is a snap of the Jan 10/12 COT (Commitment of Traders) report. Look at the number of long vs short contracts held by the large specs. It is better than a 6.2 to 1 ratio short. This is an extreme position. I have learned that these same large specs are notoriously wrong at major turning points in the market. Have they already missed the boat on this turn? Hopefully not. I have cycles due into a high near the end of this month or sooner. I am hoping that I have not miscounted my waves and we will still have that final plunge into March where the large specs should be all over themselves on the short band wagon. Take a look what this group did for a couple weeks after the 1.4247 high in October last year. http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/EC.png Also shown below is the CME currency futures report for Jan 13/12. Note the stats on the blue highlighted line. http://screencast.com/t/rAQ3Ssq4 I think the market makers got themselves too long during Friday's action and today was a balancing of their inventory. What do I know? A trader recently told me "I know I don't know" and that is valuable to know. :rofl: slick

At this time coming into the London close I suspect we will have a retrace of the last quickie move down and eventually take out the high of the day by this evening. I am looking for an irregular flat a-b-c which will take us to the area of 1.2823 where there is some fibonacci confluence. From that point we will have a deeper retrace than the .618 already hit to perhaps the 1.2664-95 areas as shown on the hourly chart. I believe we have a 3 wave structure up to this morning's high and it is the first part of a more complex zig-zag I feel that will form over the next week plus. 2012-01-17_1109 - slick60's library slick60

I follow the market in various ways and also use short term indicators to hone in on entries for trades. Below is a before [ left ] and after shot [ right ] of how I follow in short time with some so called lagging indicators. To me I interpret the lagging indicators as to what money has been doing in the past thus signalling entries are near as shown on the chart. There are many ways to track the market. Find something that works for you and get some money. 2012-01-17_0939 - slick60's library slick

There are too many weak longs, tag-a-longs I call them, going for the ride. They are viewed as obstacles who will sell early as the market maker takes this move north. As they sell he will have to absorb. That costs money so the tag-a-longs must be removed. A move back to the 1.2720-25 level should do that and then we can continue north. My short term cycle point high is not due until 9:00 pm this evening. I do not feel this high this morning is that high. It may very well be late in an up move. slick

Further to the previous post here is a 15 min futures chart showing a big volume spike into the high with a lot of selling. This is a sign of weakness and also the futures got to a 20 pip premium on this drive up. The normal lately has been about 5 pip premium to the March contract. Do you suppose the same players offset their bets in forex using the futures market? With this push it may be the start of the market maker pattern - the "M". It may be the high of the day and we will soon head the opposite way to later consolidate. 15 min futures 2012-01-17_0621 - slick60's library slick For those who may not be aware the spike high shown is one of those opportunities that the market makers take to grab your money. 5:00 am news was great, much better economic sentiment seen for the EC than what was forecast. As everyone rushed in to grab a piece of the action long the MM said thank you for your money as he accommodated them with the sell side and and a bit more.

I have mentioned before and posted in one chart the name of a book that I feel is very pertinent to the forex currency markets. It is the Quarters Theory which some of you may already be familiar with. I find it helpful for possible levels of support and resistance and levels for price targets and stop placement. This 1 hour chart will show how the 1.2800 level put the brakes on this move for a rest. 1.2800 is the first whole number above a Large Quarter which is at 1.2750 and is viewed with some importance. 1 hr chart 2012-01-17_0550 - slick60's library the book 2012-01-17_0547 - slick60's library The book is available as a PDF on the net slick60

They always do this to me when I am asleep. Costs the market makers much less money to make their move during the Asian session when volumes are less and that they did one more time at 9:00pm EST Jan 16/12. They will trap traders in the wrong direction with their fast move and dangle the carrot out in front of those traders whom they want to move the market to where the MM's want it to go. I have a couple charts showing the 9 pm push/volume increase in the 6E futures contract and how the market profile looked at that stage with several sessions merged into a ranging balance area. 15 min 2012-01-17_0504 - slick60's library market profile 2012-01-17_0512 - slick60's library Up up and away and where they stop no one knows...................really slick60

It appears to me now that we are in the final 4th wave retrace of this move down that started at 1.4247. The 2nd wave retrace was a complex flat 3 wave correction in my view, thus we should now see a zig-zag or a triangle for the 4th wave. Triangles are fairly rare so I am opting for a bit deeper z z making a double zz shape. We have already started with a complex piece of this correction which should take up until approximately Jan 27. News items etc creating opportunity to move the market lower may arise before that time so one must be prepared for them. I am at this time looking for a low to complete sometime into March and will assess at that time. Once I can identify the first of the 3 waves in this retrace I will be able to get a possible price projection at that time. Good trading folks slick see charts previous post

Often times I find after a big washout such as we had on Friday the 13th my 4 hour cycle points may come in early. Throw a holiday into the mix and now we have disarray. We can find a 5 wave count on the hourly chart into this morning low at the double bottom. I don't like it but one has to take what the market gives. Is this Magenta wave 5 low as depicted on the daily chart? There is a good chance that it is-nothing etched in stone. Uneasy at a turning point that is how we are supposed to feel. The markets are designed that way by thems thats got the money. With the longer term delta cycles that I posted earlier we are fast running out of time for this move to complete. Failing to take this low out quickly I will have to consider the retrace underway for a wave (4) at this time. hourly 2012-01-16_1402 - slick60's library daily 2012-01-16_1423 - slick60's library I will wait for a confirmation of some sort before taking a long at this time. Possible retrace levels for a (4)th wave are shown on the daily chart. slick

Forex trading is a tough business with all the odds in the world stacked against you. Here is a snap of a bit of our competition. 2012-01-13_1625 - slick60's library These are the people who have your playbook in front of them slick

As usual studying the charts on the weekend. Too old to get a life now - ha ha. I do want to post some charts with what I was looking at this morning trying to find a reasonable target for this euro to come to rest at and reverse. Crystal balling it which no one can do. Using several different means for projections I keep coming up with a level of 1.2585-87. On the 15 minute chart I show a wave count that I am following at present. On the chart I show projections based on the wave count from the 1 hr chart which look interesting to me. Also that I have a delta low due during the 9:00am 4 hr bar on Monday fits in nicely. The Monday holiday in the U.S. - how will affect trade? - not sure. I know that a turn is due and we are very close. There is a mundane MACD shown at the bottom of the 15 min chart which shows the deepest bar in the histogram came in at the Friday low. To me that said continuation, this market is not done to the downside. I do look for a lower low from here and the macd will probably show a positive divergence at that low for a reversal. My humble opinion. Below is a 15 minute chart showing ongoing EW count. 15 min 2012-01-15_1400 - slick60's library 4 hour 2012-01-15_1413 - slick60's library I keep forgetting everything I wished to share a lot. Not good. Here is also a 15 min chart in line form showing the wave count. Sometimes it helps to see it in this form. http://screencast.com/t/Ajavp5Fv0FvB slick60

I started this thread with an et al attached to the eurusd. Here is a snap of a weekly GBPUSD [cable] pair. It too has some direction 2012-01-13_1244 - slick60's library slick

I don't know if this is the right thread to post this chart in or not. I wonder if it would help anybody to know what the probable direction of the market to be on when they are trading. OR is it for naught anyway as everyone is only after $50.00 at a time. snap of the daily ES chart 2012-01-13_1152 - slick60's library slick 60

I keep forgetting to remind myself and you how important quarter points are in the currencies. Here is a chart of today's action showing same. The horizontal blue dotted lines are quarter points. 2012-01-13_1102 - slick60's library 15 minute chart slick Here is a Market Profile chart showing a large Initial Balance and generally what that means. Also a good low with an 18 pip responsive buying tail. http://screencast.com/t/lPf2FFe8zku

Working on the magenta box count at present. Fib target levels shown. There is a nice confluence of the initial 1st wave down in this series at the .886 level of 1.2537 shown here. Coming in next week as a low will bring a weekly time and price squaring of .786 at 1.2532 from the 2010 low of 1.1876. I will show this in a weekly chart. Could it really get this good? 2012-01-13_1046 - slick60's library Daily chart 2012-01-13_0802 - slick60's library Weekly chart Have a good weekend folks slick60

9:50 am and the action has been great. Here is a 15 minute chart with a wave count on it and some possible projections. We are at this time in a consolidation period I feel also known right now as a 4th wave in the 3rd wave structure down from the 1.2878 high. We should start to see some positive divergence building on macd as shown in this chart when the low of green wave 3 comes in. I think a 1.272 extension of the 1st wave down coming in around the old low of 1.2661 may be in order for that low. Then we will waste away in another 4th wave for the (4) and remembering that this is "Friday" and we might want to take profits with the weekend upon us. So in market profile for today I expect to see the typical "b" pattern of long liquidation taking place. The scenario to me looks good for the low to come in Sunday night - Tuesday early so we can get on with the sizeable retrace north. In my work this is really starting to look like a repeat of cycles that took place at the 1.1876 low back in 2010. 2012-01-13_0946 - slick60's library 15 minute chart Happy trading folks slick The reason why I started this post-trying to find a low for our present move down. Often times I have found that the midpoint of the third wave down will become the midpoint of the whole wave down - "ROUGHLY" - be nice if it was exact - so using this approach 2598 area looks doable to me. So that comes in using fibs around 1.2581 to 1.2608. Let's see what happens.