slick60

I am looking at the 1.3030 level for potential high. Have order in to sell short at 1.3025 slick Buy stop 1.3045 Uncomfortable with flattened tops on shorter term charts - position taken off 1.30249

We are just about at the level I am expecting a correction. This level in here at the Large Quarter of 1.3000, in EW wave count this wave 4 will equal wave 2 at 1.3008, as shown on chart 1.3002 is a 1.144 fib retrace and pric e in this area will support the delta cycle count as shown on the 4 hr chart and also longer term on the daily charts. This is an area to watch very closely for a pullback at this time I think. 2012-01-23_0628 - slick60's library slick

Hi Obsidian I too follow the COT data and my understanding is data is released at 3:30pm Friday reporting the open interest up to the previous Tuesday's information. 3 days late of actual positions. Here is a url that my be helpful Release Schedule - CFTC Also here is another url where traders may wish to look at a COT report. This is the one that I have bookmarked this site for COT. Current Commitments of Traders Charts Below is a snap of the current release of the euro 2012-01-22_0821 - slick60's library slick60

Where are the trading opportunities? How do I catch a winner? Using hindsight as an example today I wish to show you a snap of my two monitors together in the 15 minute time frame. This is a 15 min price chart ending at 10:30am Jan 17, and a split and squeezed market profile chart of the action of Jan 15 to Jan 17th. I started studying Elliott Wave about 35 years ago; I have been using Delta cycles from the Delta Phenomenon/Market Matrix for approximately 7 years; I read, followed and studied Wyckoff for a couple years; I have read Tom Williams books and attempted to apply Volume Spread Analysis to my trading; I have books in my library on candlestick charting-Steve Nison; Larry Williams was my hero for commodity trading back in the 70's and now I have been studying market profile for almost 2 years with understanding from James Dalton's two books on the subject. Like most in search of the holy grail of trading. Nobody has shown me how to get rich OR I am I guess a very slow learner. Today I want to show you this example of what will satisfy the appetite of most traders who may read this post. If you do not understand what you are looking at please grab a webinar of Steve Mauro at https://www.marketmakersforex.com/videos.php . He is doing another webinar at 4pm Jan 22/12 at this site if u may be interested https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/130618042 . PLEASE DO NOT THINK that I am in any way connected to MMfx or CompassFX . Someone pointed me to his site a couple months ago and to me it was in fact "like he says-the last piece of the puzzle". In the chart attached I have more than what Steve talks about but at present I think it is good information to have for me anyway. If this information is of any value to you, please all you lurkers and others, take 2 minutes to go to your keypad and say so. Thank you in advance. Trading is a difficult business to me and I will focus more on trading. 2012-01-22_0722 - slick60's library slick60

Here is a snap of the market profile coming into the U.S. session in 25 minutes. Overnight in Europe we have had long liquidation, balancing of inventory taking place. This is the familiar "b" pattern describing such action. As James Dalton describes it - The b-shaped pattern is one that you will see often, and it represents two things: (1) Sellers are primarily liquidating long positions (the opposite of a short-covering rally), rather than a combination of long liquidation and new shorting: and (2) buyers are at least more patient than sellers. This is important to note because these patient buyers are not in it for a "day trade", rather some longer time frame - at least overnight. 2012-01-20_0906 - slick60's library slick

You can tell I'm bored right now. Look out! Here is a chart of cable - GBPUSD showing how I have some kind of idea where the trend may be at any given time. It helps to keep me on the right side of the market. This comes from an understanding of the delta cycles. 2012-01-20_0808 - slick60's library slick

Here is a look at the EURUSD and the EURCAD 15 min charts that I follow showing nice entry points for 50 pip trades this morning. Nice dark cloud candle stick patterns on both of them. Take a trade on the break of the t-line or less risky with the pullback under the t-line on the 2nd bar. 2012-01-20_0735 - slick60's library I missed these as I myopically watched fiber. Need to broaden my view to opportunities in the other pairs. Please post your set-ups if they will help the little guy to win! It is soooooo easy to look at the left side of the charts. slick

I am guessing at present that the "bid and ask" guys got hammered pretty good yesterday and got too short with their inventory with what I saw as Japanese intervention taking place. These guys have been given the right to facilitate trade and someone had to be taking the wrong side for most of yesterday. The yen cross currencies were worked pretty good and then the single currency boomed a short while later. Today at present I am seeing a somewhat "b" pattern building in the market profile which is supposedly long liquidation and we have a balancing of inventory taking place. From here patterns say we can go up and delta cycles say we have had enough and we can go down for a nice retrace. We are closer to the high than the "to be" low so my money is waiting for some good confirmation. slick

Like playing chess with the market makers. What will his next move be to throw up a smoke screen? Trying to keep tabs of possibilities in this 5 minute chart. It changes very quickly as the MM weaves his magic thru the market on the way to getting your account - and trying for mine too!! 2012-01-20_0628 - slick60's library slick Very few like an Elliott Wave count because it is so subjective. I agree, however price does not sit still nor does time, thus the wave count can continue to morph into its' final pattern. I am very well aware of this having used EW for over 35 years. When uncertainty reigns hold onto your money - do not flaunt it in front of the market maker because he will not be opposed to snatching it from you. I do not see 100% direction at this time - if somebody does, please help me out.

Trying to reason this out as fast as I can. 5 min chart is showing me a wave count that may have an initial resting area around the 1.2875 quarter point 2012-01-20_0520 - slick60's library slick

A quick post to show alternate count which may be giving the glaring message of this move is done. It completes a double zig zag at a relationship of © = 1.382 x (A) On the 5 min chart waves are out of whack to each other and this can only be a corrective move south at this time in my opinion Hourly chart shows alternate count in the letters with red boxes on them 2012-01-20_0448 - slick60's library slick60

Sometimes you have to just bare your chart of everything and look at basic price. In this hourly chart I am showing my potential wave count for this move up from the 1.2623 low. It has been a difficult move to put a wave pattern to. I still feel it is a corrective move and not THE great move north to the moon at this time - despite all the record short interest. So at present this interpretation opens the door for this move to continue to a new high to put a final 5th wave in - guessing at the 1.3008 level where it would be equal to the distance traveled of the 2nd wave in this series. That would be the red box shown on previous daily charts. http://screencast.com/t/5zNYkTcIHM slick This 4 hr chart shows where my short term cycle 7 high is due and an alternate price projection of the © and (5)th waves coming together in the 1.3008 area. http://screencast.com/t/tpwjwWvWUb

3:40am the market is moving fast. Looking like the move up may be at rest. Trying to get a handle on it but the retrace down is deeper than what I would expect for continuation. Within the Quarters theory the large quarter at 1.3000 will be deemed to have been filled since we traded within 25 pips of that number at the high. Will try and post a chart within the hour. slick We have a 2nd wave at the midpoint of 1.2875 where a move down may come to rest while it decides where it is going from there. 15 min http://screencast.com/t/gPuhCbA7QooP

Got me wondering with the strength - who is selling? Hourly chart with a bunch of lines - fib confluence shown. Wave pattern will count out. This chart shows bunch of quarter lines on it. 2012-01-19_1715 - slick60's library slick

Yeah man, nothing but crap. Treat her nice and she-ll keep cooking for you. LOL and ladies please this is not chauvinism as my lady of 47 years will attest - just trying to make people smile slick

Thanks McKeen, nice to see someone respond at 10 o'clock at night. Nothing good on TV eh? slick

You are welcome. Going along pretty good so far. Thank you for the response. slick

WOW! This has been a wild ride today. Almost feels like one of those blow offs doesn't it? Looking at the 4 hr chart I am now able to see [looking at smaller time frames also] a double zig zag about complete. Could this be all in one day? A target area right now may be the quarter point at 1.2950. I have a 1.2951 .618 projection of price on one of my blue 15 min charts like I showed earlier. I need to be very cautious trying to chase the market up at this level and in the least should have very tight stops on any long profits that I may have accumulated. One has to ask the question - who has been selling all the way coming up? If professional money is only seen in the market someone still sold. There is not enough retail traders in my mind to have taken the wrong side all the way up so somebody with deep pockets was selling. If I am wrong - please someone enlighten me. Here we have a 4 hr chart with my short term cycle points on it. We are in the area of where the 7 high point has come in during the past. The move up was so strong that the 5 and 6 are about run together without a break. This is not self-serving. It is a fact of market strength from time to time. When moves happen like this I begin to doubt myself that I have the points on the right side some times. Be very careful and not too giddy up here if you are long. slick trouble with the techsmith.com site again

This chart may be a little bit premature and maybe a lot of wishful thinking - but my earlier scenario is still in play. Will have to wait and watch it play out. 2012-01-19_1223 - slick60's library slick

Man, don't mess with Central Banks. How did the Delta cycles know that this move was coming a week ago? Beats me - lol Using the Quarters Theory a strong move will usually take three trading to complete a transition from one Large Quarter to another. The last LQ being 1.2750 and the next one being 1.3000. 1.3008 is a 4th wave of equal length will come in at 1.3008 thus a target for at least slowing down. The wave count and the delta cycles can be looked at to complete at or very near that level. LQ's are shown on the accompanying chart in turquoise. A LQ may be deemed to have been filled if price trades within 25 pips of the LQ it is trying to get to. 2012-01-19_1203 - slick60's library Time for this market to take a rest - after lunch here for goodness sakes slick

Maybe not the right thread for this but I wish someone wiser and smarter than me would alert me as to where to find this kind of information before hand. What does one look at? Checking the Yen charts today it is obvious the yen is being run today. Here is a story I just found. Euro-yen intervention an option for Japan, but not now | Reuters slick man there were such opportunities in the market this morning with this information Not fair when central banks get into the fray

It appears that they are taking a run at the Yen today. EURJPY and USDJPY both very strong in relation to the EURUSD 2012-01-19_1114 - slick60's library slick

Been sidetracked. Looks to me like we may have completed a 3 wave pattern down into this morning low in the 1.2875 area. Now to see where the re-test takes it. With everyone now knowing the market is going north it may come back and look at the morning high again before completing the 2nd leg of correction. The market makers probably have not got enough for their greedy BIG pockets to run it straight south at this time so we have to wait and be careful. Bet your butt they will get paid with your dollars. Be careful. slick here is a snap of the daily EW pattern filled in from couple post back http://screencast.com/t/RFXLqhVgy

Looking at the market profile chart I feel we have a weak structure in the euro session that needs some filling on the downside. I point out a little bench that will normally get filled at the 1.2858 level. I feel immediate targets on the south side may be the previous value area low at 1.2871, the bench and then a test of the overnight lows. We shall see. 2012-01-19_1036 - slick60's library happy sailing folks slick60

Trying to use Jing again. Hope this works. Here is a chart showing how I have started to follow EW moves in the market. It is really neat to me. I find the wave count and go 1-2 and put a box around it. Then if I get another series I do the same and change the color. As the 5th wave concludes in each series I then make my colored boxes thick lined and start to look for retraces or follow through on the previous color. I also played around with a channel this morning shown on this chart from the red 1-2 low down to the current 1.2623 low and drew a parallel on the supply side. We are in a 4th wave retrace of the red color at present. Today's high I feel has completed the first leg of a possible double zig zag. Time will tell. If it progress as suspected I will be able to better make a price projection high after the 2nd leg of this formation is complete. Also since we are in a 4th wave of the 1st degree coming down it would be normal for price to burst through the upside of the upper channel line. 2012-01-19_1016 - slick60's library slick