slick60

Watch for a possible spike opportunity at 8:30am on news perhaps to the 1.3173 level and then south. Maybe all the way back to 1.2375 area. here is a profile showing P at present and wud like a spike tail ending auction into the 70-75 area. That is Utopia 2012-01-27_0800 - slick60's library slick

Central pivot today is 1.3127, just above the midpoint 1.3125. From the European close into the USA session at 9:30 yesterday the inventory is just about 100% short. That means someone went long coming down to the lows. If I am correct that we may have a high is place a 1.3183 for the time being the guys that bought the longs and are holding need to unload. I see a stop zone above the 1.3120 area probably up to the 1.3130 or so area. I will monitor action at that point if we get there to position short. slick60

To "b" or not to "p" that is the question. On the profile chart you can see defined b and p patterns. P represents short covering while the 'b' signifies long liquidation. Should fresh selling come into the overnight market we will probably see a defined down move. Hopefully they will give me a retrace to get short. market profile 2012-01-26_1912 - slick60's library slick

Away most of the day today. I see that we have run into a roadblock of sorts at the 1.3175 level. This is an area of support and resistance back to Aug 11, 2010 when supply came into the market sticking in a 325 pip down move correcting the up move from 1.1876. It has acted as support / resistance several times since then. Most recently it became support on Oct 3, 2011 and acceleration the following day with a 223 pip bullish engulfing candle. Supply came in Dec 13 breaking eventually to the 1.2623 low. So once again here we are with a daily high unable to close above the 1.3175 in the form of a southern doji. The doji is especially good at market highs showing a reversal. 1.3175 is the hesitation zone before the next large quarter at 1.3250. We quickly slipped back to the whole number 1.3100 acting as support for the time being. My view at present is that any retrace toward the high at this time is a good shorting opportunity as the market works its way back to the last large quarter at 1.3000. I feel we may even go below that to the 1.2875 level - the midpoint between large quarters that offered support with the gap down open at the start of the week. hourly quarters chart 2012-01-26_1853 - slick60's library daily quarter and delta 2012-01-26_1854 - slick60's library slick60

Where is this thing wanting to go? I have a 15 min chart with a wave count that looks to me that maybe 1.3140 to 1.3156 area may be an end of wave area. I have the central pivot at 1.3052 and London generally will move the market toward that in session. 2012-01-26_0430 - slick60's library slick

Everybody has heard of trading M's and W's. Looking at a 15 minute chart this morning I am waiting for the market maker to tip his hand and give me some direction for trade. I need to see sharp vol increase and momentum [conviction] going out the top or the bottom of the present range as shown. Asia was a 43 pip range and opportunities should be outside of that balance with conviction. We shall see - soon 2012-01-26_0407 - slick60's library profile and 2 min 6E http://screencast.com/t/TUdf9IMRJNES slick

It is bewildering as I try to share my work with others. As I chart and plot my way through waves and moves I generally run into no problems. It is when I share that the "soothsayer's curse" as I call it kicks in. I have revised the daily chart that will be familiar to most of you. From the May 4, 2010 high at 1.4940 we put in an A_B_C formation to the 1.4549 high shown on the chart. We are now looking to move down in 5 waves to an ending low for this large campaign. Our first move down where we find the purple A fits well as a three wave structure. We then had a 3 wave retrace to 1.4247 "MINI" on the chart. We now can count an A-B-C down from 1.4247 as being complete and now we are putting in the 4th wave "D" for the move. That is "ME" in the box. Mini Me - a fractal. 1.3145 should be resistance for this move north. We shall see. The Delta ITD count will work out if this does not stretch much more as it is being drawn late by the larger MTD cycle. It would be nice to have that crystal ball I eluded to earlier, but I don't. My wife broke it! Off to see my oncology team tomorrow. The last visit was at the 1.4247 high. It will not surprise me in the least to come home and find a reversal on my charts one more time with lost opportunity. Let's see where this baby runs to. 2012-01-25_1850 - slick60's library slick How do you like my 22 year old cat?

I made 1 excel profile and realized there had to be a better way that does not tap you for a ton and ongoing mortgage payments on the software. I found Final - Home software being used a bunch on sites. So I got myself the TPO Chart software for $249.00 and stuck it into Ninja Trader that I use at no cost. There is no monthly fee for the TPO software. You have seen the charts I produce with it. I am happy with it the way I look at the market. There certainly is more expensive profile software out there that is more flexible, but I don't need it to paint the fence and pour the coffee etc for me. Got a hedge anyway - lol. 6E does give you a bang for your buck very quickly these days and I do not think it is going to stop anytime soon. slick

I don't know if this morphing SOB is done messing with us yet or not. I think it has for today and now if we can get a wipe out over the next few days everything will be just dandy. Thems that knows the news beforehand had their day again today. They never lose! Couple things happened in my eyes. We got past the 75 pip hesitation zone resistance at 1.3075 to a 1.382 retrace as shown on the chart. We also tapped the whole number 1.3100 above the large quarter which now tells us we are going to make an assault on the next large quarter at 1.3250. A strong move to show continuation while achieving the LQ is generally 3 days. If we do not do that it will be a possible sign of exhaustion as it nears its goal. We now have morphed into another potential wave count and that being a double three in the making. Marked on the chart. Looking to complete the "B" portion of correction. Today also now marks 8 trading days up from the low which is a nice fibo count. The Delta count is still in tact and now we need a low for ITD 3 to base for the "C" wave up. 2012-01-25_1407 - slick60's library slick

Maybe turn out to be one big spike back to the morning balance area. Big hole to fill in the profile. 2012-01-25_1234 - slick60's library slick AND a bloody BIG spike it is. Blew me away. 1.3084 a possible stopping point for now on a possible double three or triangle formation.

Market waiting for FOMC Here is a profile chart showing yesterday European session which has already been posted describing the "b" formation and spike. I have merged together yesterday's U.S. session trend day, also shown on a previous post today with a description, together with the overnight narrow 30 pip Asian session and the start of the European session today ending at 4:15 am break. Note the defined "p" pattern going up. This signifies mainly short covering taking place and also ending with the spike opportunistic high. The latter being a sign of the end of an auction. Now we are into a defined "b" pattern at present which represents long liquidation taking place and any new selling is being done by those who are more patient than day traders. The patterns of market generated information are helpful in trying to understand who is at play in the market. Day traders and shorter time frame players are in charge of the market today. The bid and ask market makers. 2012-01-25_1026 - slick60's library slick60

This is a re-post of a chart I showed in post 72, the 4 hr chart. Plain to see nobody gives a crap about Elliott Wave reading these posts as there was a glaring mistake on that chart in relation to the 4th wave retrace. Damn, I made a mistake. Shit! In any event the 4th wave should be where it appears on this chart. Do not wish to mislead anyone with the EW counting. 2012-01-25_1007 - slick60's library slick60

In this post I wish to point out how the delta cycles come into play in my work. I know that few if any of you folks reading my posts know anything about the Delta Phenomenon aka The Market Matrix. I am giving you target levels that I feel will be achieved and my reasoning for them. I have previously mentioned the 1.2875 level as a possible retrace and here I would like to mention that not only is it a 1.618 x the 1st move down yesterday but it is also a midpoint in the Quarters Theory. ( You guys should read that book-good information ). Geez it looks like we may get there very quickly - and if we do then the retrace level may very well be lower. However time needs to be somewhat satisfied and on this chart you can see that we are now moving down to an ITD (Intermediate term Delta) #3 low which is due on average on Feb 6th. In an up market this point will normally come early and more than likely will on this occasion. Maybe very early! Note that in the overall down market the blue ITD 1 came late and now the blue ITD 2 has also. Also note the red MTD 9 low (Medium term Delta) also came quite late - normal. The MTD 10 high is next turning target. We are moving down to the MTD 11 due around 1st week of March in my view. For those of you who feel we have turned the corner and now we are on the stairway to heaven I will say this. Be careful. If a cycle low was coming at the last turn then the low ITD and MTD points would not have been late. They will be early or on time. Enough said here - I lose my readers with big posts. Most traders like wham bam thank you mam. 2012-01-25_0856 - slick60's library slick60

If any of you folks have read back on this thread you know that I have mentioned Steve Mauro and his market makers. Here is a snap showing somewhat of what he teaches which is quite valid. Asia high and low get set by the dealer and they go sideways into the euro session generally. The MM will make his quick move trapping traders to his benefit and then reverse the market. Today his opportunity was on the release of euro economic information that they knew the info beforehand and spiked the market. It went to a 1.144 x the Asia range and reversed. The entry point is shown where to take the trade and the rest is now history in the making. Hope this helps somewhat. 2012-01-25_0732 - slick60's library slick60 Had to hydrate my cat in mid post otherwise price would look better. Will take a snap and show a target on market profile http://screencast.com/t/Kp9ER35J

Having fun with my crystal ball this morning. Wave pattern that was and is and will be - MAYBE 2012-01-25_0648 - slick60's library slick

Have a 4 hr chart here showing a wave count of 5 waves complete and now into a retrace. Ont the hourly chart I have labeled the waves (A) thru (E) as they appear to be broken down into 3's which to me is another sign that this move is corrective and not impulsive. I would like to point out that this 5 wave move is what I consider "text book" in as much as the 2nd wave was a flat and the 4th wave a zig zag satisfying the rule of alternation and the relationship of the 1st wave to the 3rd and 5th in this case. Looks good to me - has the right look. I apologize if the numbers scattered all over the chart are confusing. I know what they mean and quickly see them or don't see them. 4 hr cycle times for highs and lows are also shown on this chart. Possible area of retrace for this move to take us down to before the completion on the upside. 2012-01-25_0550 - slick60's library slick60

Do we now have another shake out in the making? A view of market profile split at this time with the break. 2012-01-25_0526 - slick60's library slick

Do we make the break south here for our correction? Here is a snap of 15 min chart with price break and fib price projections. Also update hourly quarters chart with EW count. Note how the 1.2975 overshoot quarter put the brakes on this move south. 15 min 2012-01-25_0520 - slick60's library hourly 2012-01-25_0521 - slick60's library slick 60

I am sitting here this morning with a short bias - that is not good! I should be waiting for the market to tell me where it wants to go. The better than expected German business climate gave a little opportunity for the market makers to suck in some longs and roll more of their inventory at higher levels. From yesterday's shakeout we had a grinding trend day back up to about where we started. However in the process we plotted a warning sign in the market profile - the "P" pattern - just before the end of session spike. This was perhaps a sign that the market was having a difficult time going north. The 30 pip Asian range and into the euro/London session continues to say the same. We have the FOMC minutes and rate at 12:30pm EST today. MPC to release statement in about 1/2 hour. We moved into the next large quarter above 1.3000 couple days ago and have been having trouble getting up through the hesitation zone which is at 1.3075. Resistance resides at that level and that may be something holding back right now. My Delta point daily cycle high is past due but we are in an up market. This is normal behavior. It tells me that once our high is in place we should move in a correction lower BUT this high will be taken out over the next few weeks. I took a short at 1.3032 and was going to hold. Nothing says we cannot go higher in here, the narrow ranges may turn into support rather than resistance. Profile snap shows narrow ranges and the 4am spike. AND as I take this snap the SOB goes south 2012-01-25_0428 - slick60's library If & when we transition the hesitation zone we should make a move toward the next large quarter at 1.3250. Beneath that is where I think we will run into our corrective high in the 1.3200 area and then complete our move south. http://screencast.com/t/EFOsKGGVxDPg slick

I have a market profile snap to show with a couple labels on same. Please note the shape "b" pattern and the end of session,as I keep them, price spike. James Dalton teaches in Markets in Profile that "late spikes are often the completion of an auction when they follow the "b" and "P" patterns". I feel there was a lot of short interest put on the books while everyone went on a buying rampage for a week. Someone took the short side of all that buying and the only way to get paid is to reverse the market. It is not only us, the little retail trader that places orders through the bid and ask market makers. Big money also uses the MM's to facilitate trade and have to keep him in the game. Subsequently Big money will allow the MM to get his ass out of hawk and get paid. I view this pause at present to allow more distribution to take place at higher prices. We may not put in a new high above this morning but rest assured the bottom will fall out of this market when the inventory has been balanced once again. Hope this makes sense. 2012-01-24_1003 - slick60's library slick60

Retrace to 1.3033-34 and away she'll go south. This is what I see or they have fooled the hell out of me! http://screencast.com/t/Sw7rmd9D slick

I feel we are building a plateau of distribution at present and it will only be a matter of time before the stop run below 1.2985 begins. Profile chart showing the distribution. 2012-01-24_0731 - slick60's library slick

Hi Tim Read your profile and see we have traded the same things, ES and 6E. I traded ES exclusively for about 1 1/2 years and moved to the 6E when S & P was in the doldrums and volatility/opportunities looked better in currencies. I tried some of the same entry techniques for the 6E as I heard in the JPJ trading room and they did not work as well. MP does seem to be very good in currencies however. It really is the only TRUE barometer of price activity in forex that I can see. slick

With the delta cycle points coming due at this point I have to be alert for a turn to the downside for a retracement or continuation of the total move. I am treating this still as a corrective wave 4 for the red box to complete before the final move down in this series. I can get fooled but this is my view at this time. I have a corrective level of 1.3075 as a .382 retrace which may be met during the Asian session or into tomorrow morning. The high due is the ITD delta cycle high 2 as shown on the Delta chart. This may be the total retrace OR we can go down and then come back to a new high perhaps around the 50% retrace level of 1.3215 by the end of this month or into 1st week of February. There is a medium term cycle high due on the 7th of February which may come early (if not in at this time). 4 hour cycle points are for a low due on this 9pm bar and then into a high sometime tomorrow - I suspect early in the cycle. Narrow range balancing overnight and little pop tomorrow to set up a short trade perhaps. That is what I look for at this time. 2012-01-23_1738 - slick60's library Delta chart 2012-01-23_1756 - slick60's library slick60

There are fib retracements up to the 1.3046 level at this time, a naked POC from Jan 4 at 1.3037, the yearly high is in view at 1.3076, the hesitation quarter is at 1.3075 - Enough stuff for me to stand aside and let this market prove itself to me before I short it again. Opportunity came this morning long with the break of the balanced Asian session as shown on this profile chart http://screencast.com/t/FRp3cO0BqIIV slick60