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slick60
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Everything posted by slick60
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AUDUSD I think I see the first imprint of the market maker's footprint on this 15 minute chart. We came off the high in 3 waves down to a hammer low which appears corrective at this time. A 3 wave push higher to me will represent a good opportunity for a short position today. There was a nice divergent trade at the high BUT I was still in bed. Need to move to Britain or Australia I think. 15 min 2012-02-07_0437 - slick60's library slick
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AUDUSD Trying to hone in on a turn in this pair I look to my 4 hour chart with the SITD cycle on it. The chart will show a "4" point is due on the 9pm bar this evening. General rule in delta timing is if a turn is due the point will be on time or come early. It was this same cycle 4 point that was the turning high on Sept 1, 2011 at 1.0764. Coincidence? That high came in during the 1pm bar. 4hr 2012-02-07_0421 - slick60's library Good trading everyone slick
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AUDUSD A very good reason for the market to continue on its' upward path with the RBA maintaining the 4.25 % interest rate. So this to me creates a great opportunity for the market makers to finally roll over their long positions and start the correction south. As you can see on my daily chart we are running out of time in 3 delta cycles, the blue ITD, red Medium and the black Medium long term deltas. The next low is about the middle of March in the MTD and the MLTD into April. This is the "time" projection for a retrace. Where price is going to go at this time is still a mystery. We hit the 1.0822 high this morning, 3 pips off of the hesitation zone at 1.0825. It is still possible to go higher but I for one am only looking south for my opportunity with confirmation of a turn. 2012-02-07_0324 - slick60's library slick60 I forgot to point out my dilemma of the ITD cycle at the inversion time of the cycle. This is shown by the question marks on the placing of the [1], 2 and 3 points. We still have either or at this time to me BUT I lean toward the 3 high coming in at this time.
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I must apologize. I inadvertently called the 75 pip quarter line as the "Overshoot" in my post # 107. That is the name given to the 25 pip zone on either side of a large quarter. The 75 pip zones are in fact the "hesitation zones". Used to working with the hourly chart with the overshoot zones. I'll bet nobody cared anyway - lol slick60 taking memory therapy
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On an Aussie roll - I have here another perspective of the AUDUSD on a weekly chart. Note also the Quarters lines that are marked and highlighted. Names of the quarters are on the colors. Note especially how the overshoot, which is a 75 pip quarter in relation to a Large quarter, comes into play. Currencies do trade in the quarters. They are support/resistance and targets to where the banks/commercial etc wish to make a move within specified economic conditions. Foreign exchange is not all speculative or willy nilly. There is some reason behind the moves. I feel the quarters theory reflects this quite well. Also on the chart is shown the Medium Long Term Delta cycle in black points. This isa cycle solution of 18 points in 4 years. The red points are the Medium term delta whcih work within the MLTD and the Long Term cycles. This is a different view a longer term focus of where we have been. 2012-02-05_1505 - slick60's library See y'all down under mites slick60
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Updating AUDUSD I was away most of Friday. Crazy upside down day with respect to the NFP release. Great short opportunity in the first couple minutes. I watched and cried because I had to leave in about 5 minutes time and could not commit to a trade at that point. There will be other days I'm sure. I would like to update my Aussie post with a chart showing ominous consideration. We looked above the triple top resistance on Friday and are at a crucial juncture with regard to delta cycles as the chart will show. Will we go higher - quite possibly, but I will be viewing any push north probably to be an excess high at this time. We are due for a correction in the aussie and it will take 4 to 6 weeks at least. Will it be sideways or straight down. Wish I knew for sure - price will determine that. Is there any good news on the horizon to create an opportunity for the market makers to roll over the last of their longs and start the move short? The currency market will be very interesting this week. Watch for signs of reversal. COT data for the AUDUSD shows a 5 to 1 ratio bulls to bears. Is this getting near an extreme? AUDUSD daily 2012-02-04_0913 - slick60's library Add 4hr chart with timing and possible price projection http://screencast.com/t/MsVWwbpwyh42 slick60
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Interesting Aussie Dollar chart For anyone trading the AUDUSD you are probably aware that we are at a pretty important level with relation to the resistance high that we are at for the 3rd time since last September. However important it may be will be seen. It also appears that we are running out of time in the near future as this cycle appears to be nearing an end. The chart shows the intermediate and medium term delta cycle highs are due in the very near future. Maybe time to tighten up those stops or take some profits off the table. 2012-02-02_1338 - slick60's library slick60
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This is my 4 hr chart showing equality in moves and projected time points to look for. It is a messy chart - because I have all this mess on it trying to show you. After I post the mess will be gone. Note the 50% of moves for the impulse areas and the equality of each move so far. Will it continue to fruition? Only time will tell. My best estimate of direction at present lies within these delta time points. I mentioned the inversion period in a previous post so the odds and even numbers can change sides still if price says so. This chart is certainly not as bad as a lot I have seen but is a bit too busy for me. 2012-02-02_1114 - slick60's library Catch a ride folks when you know where the train is going! slick60
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This currency market is like a game of chess to me. I am always trying to figure out what my opponent's next move will be. The game has changed. No longer is it straight forward with two minds meeting to do battle. Enter now Mr. Computer, take your ill gotten gains and pay someone with brains to make a program so you as a manager of other people's money no longer have to think. Get your bonus on the back of the taxpayer's money and strut around like a peacock. Geeeeeeeez, getting off topic here--- I have a 4 hour chart once again to post with a possible 5 wave / triple zig zag pattern that may come to fruition should the 1.3234 high be taken out. And it certainly looks like it will do that at present. Today may have been the 1st wave up in this move as shown on the chart. Three waves of equal length end in the area of 1.3385. This pattern has appeared in the past and may perform once again. I have longer term Delta cycles due in the area shown. Will it come to pass? I await his next move so I can at least get his Queen - haha. 2012-02-01_1652 - slick60's library Good luck folks. Let me know how you make out. Slick 60
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Wow! This market is relentless. Only one thing comes to mind, and that is recent webinars that I have watched about trading with the market makers. None of the technical signals work. Elliott wave blows. Support and resistance - ha! Crossovers suck. You name it and it is not working. When these guys with money wish to move the market - they do. They know how to get your account and they are trying hard for mine. EW pattern has changed, morphed into something corrective again. The H & S is shot. What's left. Well Delta is still there at work for me. I will bide my time waiting to see the footprints of the market makers and try to grab a ride with them. Other time frame money besides the day trader has obviously stepped into the market today hammering the dollar and grabbing all the majors against it. They will turn the market back over to the the MM soon if not already for awhile. slick
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The hourly quarters chart is now showing a head and shoulders pattern (ref post #97) that has now been retraced. Is it finished at this point? An EW pattern is complete if it does not get extended and we may now move south from here continuing with the retrace of the big up move from Feb 13. Using the H & S projection of a broken neckline we can look to the 1.2850 to 1.2975 quarters for possible retrace levels. If it moves in this manner then I look for completion by Feb 6, or earlier if a turn is due. Nothing to say the hedgies will not drive it higher. Note how the quarters come into play time after time. You should be catching on to these levels by now. 2012-02-01_0641 - slick60's library Happy trading everyone slick
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You have to wonder. How is a guy ever to be able to make a buck at this currency trading game with the BIG money hedge funds etc, market maker banks and brokers out there. Yesterday they had to make up a contrived month-end balance sheet to convince the general public to let them keep their money for the time being and so the ""experts"" (ha ha) who run the funds can get their month-end bonuses. What a manipulated crock of BS. We have no choice but to try and trade in line with them or just stand aside until regular trading resumes. At this time, today is not that day yet. The chart I wish to share is that of the Aussie, Euro and DX futures. DX/dollar manipulation at its' finest in my opinion. Check out the "where did this come from" volume on the DX chart at 1:45-2:15 am today. We NEVER get a volume burst in the DX at this time of day unless it is manipulation of the board. 100 - 125 pip moves in all the majors against the dollar. The paltry returns that these guys get bonuses for is so laughable. IT ONLY TAKES MONEY!!! 2012-02-01_0556 - slick60's library slick60
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I have a 4 hr chart here that shows my short term cycle points when due on average. This last cycle has not been an easy one to read. Had me flip flopping both ways trying to get a proper handle on this last cycle. The power of the move will sometimes distort exactly where the cycle points are, highs or lows. We are in what is know as the "inversion" period when an extra point may come into the cycle as you can see by the {12} at top right. We may also have an inverted 1 which means an extra [1] point may appear. At times it is difficult to have the correct placement. Once price movement gives you the clues of confirmation smooth sailing is expected within the rules for the rest of the cycle. My next high point at this time is due on average on the 9am 4 hour bar tomorrow morning. We shall see what the market has to say about it come morning. 4 hour moves are nice to catch - they are not position trades but certainly can yield a lot of pips.. We made an a-b-c move from the 1.2623 low to the high of 1.3234. We have a lower high and lower low. I expect a move down to at least the (B) level in the area of .618 retrace as shown on this chart. Price may have something to say about that! 4 hr 2012-01-31_1647 - slick60's library Go get them pips. slick60
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Volume as I get it represented to me through Trade Station is shown per session on this profile chart. Something is going on today in a balanced European session. Has value all of a sudden become "I need to get in at 1.3200 level". OR could we be having a changing of the guard called distribution by the bigger money preparing for the next move down? Are all the hedge funds etc all of a sudden realizing they have missed the boat from 1.2623 level and deciding collectively that this is a good spot to get in. Please help me or learned ones or forex gods. I cannot see paying 575 pips more for something that was available 2 weeks ago. If the hedge funds are doing this then we really need to get new financial advisors. Hell I think I saw the lows, did I not? profile chart 2012-01-31_0738 - slick60's library Cheers everyone slick60
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Looking at the hourly chart it is interesting to see that the move down from the high of 158 pips stopped at the hesitation zone 1.3075, 75 pips above the large quarter 1.3000. Note the retrace levels shown on the chart, especially the .618 back up to the 1.3175 hesitation zone quarter just left. Also visualize a head and shoulders pattern should we retrace to the 618 or the 786 at the whole number. Project a break of the neck line and that will take us down to the hesitation zone below the 1.3000 large quarter at 1.2925. These are areas to watch and possible targets to head for. Watch out for stops below the 1.3075 level. 2012-01-30_1050 - slick60's library slick60
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This 15 minute chart shows what I am looking at presently. 5 waves down tells me we are not done - but - we shud be due for a bit of retrace in here at least. It also shows short inventory has probably been balanced from Friday's run away. 2012-01-30_0803 - slick60's library slick60
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Welcome Kino, study hard and make some bucks slick60
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Welcome Landser, good luck to you. slick60
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The strength of this market has been fooling me and others I will bet for a while now. Good news may just ramp it up. One has to be prepared to go with price and wait for the clear reversal. I have worked a bunch this weekend and do have a possibility of continuation short term for about 3 days after a minor set back possibly. I have two charts to show. The daily with wave pattern has been adjusted to my primary count. I will not dismiss a retrace still up to the 50% level as shown. The 2nd chart is my Delta chart with the blue ITD points placed as possibilities at this time allowing for fruition of the up move perhaps by Wednesday the 1st. That will give us 13 trading days up from the low and will create symmetry with an 8 day move down into the low on a daily chart. I feel that the high will be put in place this eek. wave count 2012-01-29_1341 - slick60's library Delta 2012-01-29_1342 - slick60's library slick60
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Associated Press - Jan 28, 2012 — Greece and investors who own its bonds reach a tentative deal to significantly reduce the country's debt and pave the way for it to receive a much-needed €130 billion bailout. Smells of opportunity to me for a reversal - all this good news from the savior! Bond Issues Issues ISIN Coupon Volume Greece, 2012-1, EUR GR0110021236 4.3% 1450000000 End of placement Maturity date 17.02.2009 20.03.2012 Trying to show a Greek Bond issue due Mar 20, 2012. Here is url if it does not work http://www.cbonds.info/em/eng/pages/Greece-bond?gclid=CLPgxvvP9a0CFYkDQAodlny4cg So many zeros on the bond issue coming due on Mar 20 I don't know what it is - ha ha ha! $62,350,000.00 interest due plus a bunch of paper that I don't really think that I would buy again. Cash in the chips! Dip into the fund! Best to pay it with a devalued currency! This issue was completed in 2009 at the 1.25000 level in the euro. Do you suppose it may head that way again by March 20th? Reference my daily chart lower trend line. When am I expecting a major low to come in with Delta timing? What is the fibonacci extension down to. Have we created an opportunity for the large market makers to grab our accounts recently? I have posted my feelings within this thread. So when we look after Europe what about the U.S. debt? Will be time to drive the dollar the other way. Man it is scary and thank you to Goldman Sachs et al there is no way out. "Inside Job" - Great documentary movie. Good trading everyone. slick60 Sorry for the appearance of this post. TL does not post what you see when you type.
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Saturday morning - more analysis. I wish to show you a scrunched up market profile chart with individual profiles for the week of Jan 22 - 27, 2012. Need to pull profiles tightly to fit them all on one snap. Note especially the failure of the value area in pink to migrate north with price during the last 6 hours of trade on Friday. This can be a sign of weakness and close scrutiny should be paid to this pair during Sunday open into Monday session. Visual targets that act like magnets in market profile are the naked POC's. These are the Point of Control or fairest price of value during a session and have remained untouched by ensuing price action. The 24 hour profiles depicted here are from 1700 hrs EST starting on Sunday. I have labelled some of the Quarter points on this chart also for reference purposes. No Elliott Waves on this chart - thankfully - lol. In my opinion we are fast exhausting this move and in the least we are setting up for a reversal correction. My advice is to be very cautious taking long positions at this level. http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/ca610823-9026-4966-97b2-78cc7bdafc3a/2012-01-28_0901.png slick60
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I am always looking for possibilities and sharing my findings with those who choose to read this thread. It keeps me occupied. For all the Elliott naysayers out there this is a good market at present as the EURUSD continues to be a continual move of either-ors and at times makes one feel like they do not have a clue. There is always a developing picture which I monitor for opportunity as it fulfills a possibility. We are at such a juncture at this time as one can see on the posted chart and knowing a few of the Elliott rules. I wish to point out structure on this chart with the (2) and(4) waves shown. (2) is a very weak a-b-c flat and (4) is at present an a-b-c zig zag that will measure 1.618 x wave (2) at the 1.3245 area. I stated some time ago this was what to look for in structure and that it would be a move of significance. Blowing me away with the strength. Elliott Rule - waves 2 and 4 will alternate in pattern. So if wave 2 is a flat then wave 4 will be a zig zag or a triangle. If this move continues with a sign of strength past the 1.618 measure then I will have to consider the "A" - "D" alternate count shown on the chart. If so where will it go? In the Quarters theory we have fulfilled price movement to the 1.3250 Large Quarter and we did it with strength on a 3 day move after the 1.3000 level had been tested. 1.3250 becomes a very important benchmark at this time. I apologize for the long posts - I have a lot to say. Daily line chart 2012-01-28_0641 - slick60's library Hourly quarters http://screencast.com/t/yPFN7HdNM1m slick60
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A work in progress Note - a whole lot of question marks. http://screencast.com/t/C5897ycd slick
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We are within striking distance of the next Large Quarter at 1.3250. We are resting above the "hesitation zone" and long term support/resistance at 1.3175. New high on the move. Will we fulfill that quarter. Remains to be seen. Stalling in the 25 pip overshoot area under the LQ would be a sign of weakness and a reversal would be almost assured. I am not betting any of my money on this move at this time. I am standing aside and waiting for the signal that we are on our way down to the low 20's or below. hourly quarter points chart 2012-01-27_1226 - slick60's library she is sure looking cooked, but I think I have said that before. slick60
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This is gonna be a long post I suspect - need to vent!!!!!! and teach. I gotta make this post. I am sitting here watching this market somewhat churning from high to low to a new high and listening to Steve Mauro one more time talking about the market makers. He has already long ago told us in webinars that the dealers have got our orders right in front of them. The pending buys, sells. stops, limits, the list goes on. I believe this - they have my playbook. While doing so I am following trend line breaks on the 15 min charts. I have Trade Station for my forex platform. At approximately 11:00am price snaps north thru a t-line with momentum and I get a "Disconnected from Trade Desk" or whatever it says from TS. My connection goes down and the charts stop. This is where I have my LIVE account for forex. It is down for about 5 minutes and then I get the "Data connection" pop up back. Charts start rolling. In my "order Window" I see they have changed my pair from EURUSD to USDJPY even though my charts that are live are all EURUSD. Now I have to change back to my pair that I want to trade. Understand this - TS THE DEALER/MARKET MAKER found himself on the wrong side of the move and shut us down.. How do I know this? I am also running a 2nd computer with my futures platform powered by Zen-fire and it does not skip a beat. Steve continues to talk all the time TS is down on that computer. Just f....ing lovely. Having your playbook is not enough, they still have to pry the rocks up to crawl under them. Now look at your trading platforms. Hover your mouse over one of the hot buttons for buy, sell etc and you will see them pulse or do something. Don't click the mouse and BET your ass you are sending your intentions to the platform dealer. Do you ever wonder why so many updates to your platform? Well some SOB that programs for them has come up with another way to tap your platform. Geez, I wonder if they can see me take a p......! Gotta shut the door to my bathroom - haha. I chart trade in Ninja Trader. I will not use a DOM. Do you wonder why especially when the dealing desk tells you it is the only way that orders will be recognized - that chart trading has flaws and they may not execute your stops etc. Let me explain to you. I can enter orders off a tic chart, 2 min, 5 min, 240 min, day and you name it. They have no idea where I am or what I want to do. In a DOM your total order flow from any chart sends the message and you are visible. I was told by my futures dealing desk to use the DOM. I have never had a problem with a chart fill. It is bullshit. Did you honestly think you were dealing with a market making network where your order is paired up with somebody an ocean away in nano seconds? They can't even make cell phones work from a hollow in a roadway. To all the dealers out there providing data to you through their special platforms - take a hike and s.... you. You are the lowest form of life that is using oxygen on this planet! HEY GUYS AND GIRLS - USE BUY AND SELL MARKET ORDERS and keep your mouse away from those buttons until you are ready. You get in a trade - monitor it - screw the stops. Until you can do that you leave yourself wide open and they will continue to punish you until your account is gone or you are margined out. slick60
