jperl

These are all good questions Blowfish: In [thread=2008]Part III[/thread]you will notice in the videos that NEWBIES stops are larger than his profit targets. This is one of the dilemmas that NEWBIE is going to have to confront head on when we discuss the issue of what's wrong with the whole concept of a fixed stop loss. That's going to be a very interesting thread. Yes NEWBIE for now only knows about todays data. We will leave to a later thread the significance of previous days,weeks,months PVP and VWAP. I will anticipate that discussion by telling you here that when NEWBIE is no longer wet behind the hears, he is going to want to know about previous PVP's, VWAP's, as they are going to tell him all about what price action to anticipate in the daily intraday time series. As far as jumps in the PVP, that is another important event in the price action which we will discuss in a future thread. Again, I will anticipate that discussion by telling you that a jump in the PVP often will signal the onset of a reversal in the price action. For NEWBIE now that means exit the trade immediately and sit on the sidelines.

NEWBIE is on roll. He now has the PVP , the VWAP and their relationship down pat. He keeps his entries simple by trading short when Price Action < VWAP < PVP and trading long when Price Action > VWAP > PVP. He wants to test his new found knowledge on other contracts, like the Emini NASDAQ 100 ( NQ ). So here is NEWBIES NQ trade for today July 18, 20007. Watch the video and see how NEWBIE does it. NQshort.swf

Dogpile- on 7/15 you said the following in [thread=2008]Part III[/thread] of the "Trading with Market Statistics Thread": But today you said in the last post Sounds like you have done a 180 turnaround on this. Too bad, because the most exciting stuff is coming up soon. You also made the following statement which is self contradictory If POC is a "very much useful thing", surely PVP must be also since market profile is a subset of the more general distribution function. ----

Nick-I know you are all salivating at the bit for more information, but you are going to have to wait until we discuss standard deviation of the vwap to get your answer. So stay tuned. In the mean time if you have not read [thread=2008]Part III[/thread], on the basics of VWAP trading, do so now.

The longest bar is where the red line is. It's hidden under the line, so it is difficult to see. (Make sure you maximize the chart size in order to see it ). You are correct in that volume is growing in at the lower price and in fact eventually the PVP will switch to a lower price as shown in chart 3. This doesn't occur until the end of the day.

Dogpile, I think you are being somewhat unfair to those who want to determine if using statistical analysis will give them an edge in their trading. Those here who know how I trade, know that it is the only thing I use. With regard to ES for today: I will only comment as if I were a NEWBIE trader since that's as far as I have taken the discussion in these threads. There are videos in [thread=2008]PART III[/thread] which show how NEWBIEs trade using market statistics, so I will look at today's ES only from that point of view. There were more trades that an advanced trader could have taken using only market statistics. a)There were no long trades that NEWBIE could take b)For short trades, NEWBIE takes a position only when the VWAP < PVP AND price action is below VWAP. So look at the first image. At 13:08 EST, VWAP (1563.12) < PVP (1564.25). Price action dropped below the VWAP, so NEWIE would have entered short. If he was aggressive enough he could have entered just below the VWAP. His stop loss would be just above the PVP at 1564.50. His profit target is undetermined. NEWBIE is still trading by the seat of his pants with regards to profit. Most likely he would have stayed in for 1 point (4 ticks). c)Look at the second image. At 15:16 EST NEWBIE would have entered short again. Why? VWAP (1561.74) < PVP (still at 1564.25). He would have entered 1 tick below the VWAP and stayed in for 1 point. So his entry would have been 1561.50 and his exit would be 1560.50. d)Note in the third image that at 15:54 the PVP changed abruptly to 1560.75. After that occurred, NEWBIE would only take long trades. But clearly this occurred to late in the day

Get yourself a copy of snagit from http://www.techsmith.com. You can then do a screen or window capture and post it.

I did use filefront for a few files, but now abandoned that for uploading directly to this forum. Much less hassle. There are several small pieces of software(other than Quicktime) that run swf files conveniently and easily as suggested by Thrunner in his post in this thread. I've tried swf opener and it works fine.

Yes, I agree with you on this. Old POC's or PVP's do get touched. Again you will have to wait until we discuss this in a future thread. NEWBIE isn't ready for that yet. He only knows about today. Well it depends on what you mean by clean. VWAP is a pivot point or what I prefer to call a HUP, and it is dynamic, that is it can change with time. Hopefully by the time we get to discussing HUP, we will be able to relegate static pivots to the dust bin.

Yes, I could, but the file size might be prohibitive. The swf files are about a factor of 3 smaller than the avi files. I originally loaded these files as Camtasia exe files which anyone could open without a lot of fuss, but I received vociferous objections to that. Suggest you send a note to Soultrader, about your request. I'd be happy to send the files in any format he would agree to. My first choice would be Camtasia files.

Dogpile--- POC or PVP is not a continuous function of time even on the same day. You will see this when I show you some videos of the reversal trade. You are correct in the sense that it takes time for a new PVP to develop and replace the old PVP, but as an analytic function of time, it abruptly changes from the old value to the new. This is very much unlike the VWAP, which is a continuous function of time, and changes gradually as price action changes. I suggest you guys wait until I show the videos of this in a future thread, before you continue this discussion. JERRY

THanks thrunner, I figured there had to be something out there to control swf playbacks. Very useful. Yes, I use ensign software and wrote my own software for the VWAP. However, ensign does offer a Design Your Own template to download for computing VWAP.

NEWBIE wants to test his new found trading knowledge for other contracts besides the emini Russell 200. In this video he trades the Emini S&P500 for July 9, 2007. As usual, NEWBIE trades shorts when price action is below the VWAP AND the VWAP < PVP. So follow along as NEWBIE takes this ES short trade. ESshort.swf

Glad to hear you know how to scale in MidKnight. We will have to discuss this further in another thread for those who need to be enlightened. I'll consider posting some videos on the subject.

Ok Nelo, glad you are finding this useful. there is more to come, so stay tuned

Glad you like them Unleashed. Stay tuned, there is more to come. We've only scratched the surface.

As we will see later, the PVP is one example of a hold up price, HUP for short, prices where the market slows or reverses. More importantly for NEWBIE now, its the relationship between PVP and VWAP that is important for determining market skewness. When PVP and VWAP are close together, there is no skew. Volume distribution is then symmetric about the mean ( VWAP ). It's when they are further apart producing a market skew that things get interesting. Yes he could have taken a long earlier...but again he's going to have to wait until later threads to understand why that would have worked using market statistics.

Not to crazy about a fill in the blanks form. Would rather see a blotter showing all trades with P/L.

You've got to be kidding. The market doesn't give a rat's ass about you TinGull. At times, it'll take your money and kick you while your down too. At other times it will be sweet and give its all to you just for the asking. It is totally amoral. The only good thing about the market is that it doesn't care whether you stay or leave. It always takes you back whenever you want.

For the vast majority of traders, if you can't trade sim with consistency and discipline, means you won't trade real cash any differently. Brownsfan, you are probably one of those outliers for which this is not the case . You need the rush of real cash on the line to wake you out of your complacency. Anyone else out there besides brownsfan and cooter who need this kind of rush. Lets here from you.

That's part of the problem. If he can't treat sim trading as real, think of what he would do with real cash . I don't like this idea at all. If he can't be profitable trading 1 contract in a sim account, then it's pointless going to real cash. The whole idea of a sim account is to let you explore ideas without going into bankruptcy AND to learn how to develop the discipline needed to trade with real cash.

Sounds to me that you are not ready for prime time. You haven't developed the discipline yet to believe in your trading plan. So I suggest you stop trading real cash and switch to simulation mode. Take every trade that comes along that is part of your trade setup and see how you do. Be honest with yourself. You don't want to be trading real dollars until you've developed that hard nosed discipline that comes with trading and are convinced that your plan works for you.

Hi TevTrader,, welcome aboard... You say you've been trading for 1 1/2 years. Are you making money or losing money? a)If you are making money, keep at it...Eventually you will get more relaxed and confident in what you are doing b)If you are losing money.. Stop trading with real dollars and switch to simulated trading with play money. Develop your plan and don't trade with real money until you are consistently profitable for 1 month. (This could take a year or more). c)If you've been doing only sim trading and are consistently profitable for 1 month, but still not relaxed....then keep doing sim trading until you are relaxed. Trading has to be second nature. d)If you've been doing only sim trading and are losing money, then you don't have a trading plan yet which you are confident in. Keep at it until you do have a trading plan which works for you and can get consistent profits for 1 month. Don't do both sim trading and real trading in some kind of haphazard fashion. You'll never get relaxed that way.

HI Dupaski, If you are a newbie, the answer is no. If you are an advanced trader, the answer is yes. You have to learn how to crawl first before you can walk. We will get to trading in the low volume zone in later threads. Slow creep upward price action is difficult to trade under any circumstances. I actually traded yesterdays ER2 action. Took about 4 trades. Reversion to the mean (VWAP) doesn't occur all that frequently. You will have to wait until we talk about reversions to the Standard Deviation. Stay tuned. JERRY

Click on the link which will take you to filefront. Then click on download, which will download the file to your computer. If you get a message that says something like "Windows can't open this file", it should give you choices of what software to use to open it. Just choose your browser, either IE or Firefox to open it. Any problems, let me know. (Soultrader is working on ways to make this easier) JERRY