jperl

I would stand aside and wait until the switch occurs. Then decide what to do about a trade.

For what it's worth, fair coin tosses should follow a binomial distribution. Stock prices do not. So any system based on some fixed random distribution, binomial or otherwise will ultimately fail. As far as guessing 1000 winning trades in a row, it's 1/2^1000. Even getting 10 winning trades in a row is pretty small, approx 1 in 1000. Enjoy the entertainment.

Unfortunately guys/gals 10 coin flips is not going to tell you much. You need something like 1000 flips to get any realistic statistical data.

I believe in TOS, you can only start VWAP from the opening bell, daily, weekly or monthly. What you see in my charts is based on software I wrote. However Ensign offers them as part of their study list. I use 2 minute charts, but there is nothing sacred about the time interval, you can use longer or shorter intervals

The answer to your question is no. When you plot volume for every bar, the single bar with the largest volume is not the PVP. To obtain the PVP you have to sum all the volumes for each price and find the price with the largest sum. This sum could be from a price with lots of small volumes occurring many times and may not be anywhere near the price bar with the largest volume.

Get yourself a copy of SWF opener here: http://www.browsertools.net/

For those of you with full time jobs that want to trade the Iron Condor, check out 7minutetrader.com. They do weekly spreads on the S&P 500 Index (SPX). For a $50/month they will tell you the weekly setup for a credit spread reward/risk ranging from 6% to 14%/week. I use them for my non daytrading portfolio.

Yes, I'm still here answering the same questions over and over and over....

Yes of course, you may use any defined HUP's you like, but don't mix apples with oranges. Be consistent. Use the same HUP's from day to day.

I don't think I ever discussed trade reversal in the Market Statistics threads, but in any event the "clues" as you call it are places on the chart where if you are say presently long you should be short and vice versa. However this involves very careful trade management prior to your initial entry. You should be asking yourself several questions prior to the long entry. For example, a)what is my risk tolerance on this trade? b)If I have to reverse this trade, where would it be? c)would I still be within my risk tolerance if I reverse this trade with increase in size? If you can't answer these questions, then don't take the initial trade. This has been discussed on these threads before but I don't recall where. It's called a two boob day. There are some who believe that when price touches the second boob, it will bounce back to the first boob. My preference would be to trade between VWAPs rather than boobs, but this can get complicated and you will have to find your own way through the maze.

Your best bet instead of PMing me is to post your strategy in the appropriate thread here at TradersLaboratory. Don't be shy. People here are very helpful and you will get lots of feedback.

We are still around. This all depends on your trading style. Newbie's always use stop losses, which usually gets them into an overall losing position. As you develop confidence, you will find that if a trade moves against you, and you know what your risk tolerance is, you can stick with the trade, by scaling into it or even reversing it with scale ins. It's this risk aspect of trading that I use rather than stop losses. If a trade moves in my direction, then of course I will use something like a breakeven stop to exit. Well if you are a newbie, yes. If you are not a newbie, and you have discovered the paradigm shift of risk tolerance, then no. Old threads if they are good ideas never die.

Wait for the price action to drop below the 1st SD before you consider a short.

As a minimun, yes. At the start of Wednesday, you don't have any statistical data to examine. So as a minimum you should have Tuesday's data available and add to it as the new day progresses.

The VWMA or volume weighted moving average is like any other moving average except it is weighted by volume. In practice what this means is that you have to choose a time period over which to compute the average. The problem with this, is you are always dropping the oldest data at the back of the average and adding new data at the front. VWAP on the other hand, does not drop any of the data. It keeps adding data at the front. Which is better? It depends on your point of view. To me, the VWAP and the histogram from which it is derived provides a clearer picture of the overall statistics of the market. The VWMA and its histogram may have no statistical significance depending on its time frame.

Raj, As a minimun, the amount of data should span a time period at least as long as the period over which you intend to trade. So if you are day trading, then you should have at least one days worth of previous data showing VWAP and volume histogram. If you trade over a two or three day period, then you should have at least two or three days worth of data.

What I have presented is now public information. You may use it in any way you like. The only thing I ask is if you do use it in a product, to reference the source here at Traders Laboratory.

The statistics of the price action tell you nothing about the source of the price action including High Frequency Trading. That's the beauty of the statistical data. You don't really need to know its source, only what it looks like. What trading strategy you use with the statistics is of course up to you. I've described several in the threads. There are many more.

no they are not the same.

I'm not aware that IB provides SD for anything. VWAP may be available as and algorithm. Check the help file in IB for VWAP.

If confidence is what you are looking for, then yes. Sort of like the Shapiro effect- wait for confirmation. As far as missing bad trades, it depends on how you define a bad trade. I've never been one to define a trade as bad (except when I was a newbie and didn't know better). There is only bad trade management and bad money management most of which has been discussed in these threads.

Blowfish your concept of using the longer data set to decide on trade direction for the shorter data set would work fine. In fact it should work fine for just about any type of technical analysis one uses: eg. long time moveing average with short time moving average, long time regression analysis with short time, long time stochs with short time stochs. The key as you state is trading the short time in the direction of the long time trend. The only problem I have with it is you will miss about half the good trades.

Your question comes down to the situation of what do you do when one data set shows a positive skew and another shows a negative skew; which way do you take the trade.? This situation occurs all the time. The answer is not unique. It depends on what type of trade you are looking to enter. If you are trading against the weekly data with positive skew, it may take a whole week for you to see a positive long trade. If you are trading against the daily data with negative skew then you may want to go short keeping in mind that the longer time bias is long.

If I'm daytrading today, I don't include the overnight session, although I might include data for about 1 hour before the open, so that I can see where price action is starting at the open. This has little or no effect on todays VWAP

Not familiar with crude oil Cunparis, but I would think that the overnight data would not have much effect on the VWAP value unless overnight volume is large. If it is large, then you need to include it in your data.