pipsaholic

Using market structure order flow and candlestick formation along with S&R and trendlines with round numbers is all you need.

I got this from a blog which is excellent info on trendlines:- Factors Affecting Trend Lines Strength 1. Timeframe's Length of the trendline The Longer the timeframe, the more valid the trend line. A monthly timeframe trendline is more valid than a week timeframe. 2. Trendline's Length The Longer the trendline, the more valid the trend line. A longer trendline shows a major pattern over a longer period. And is likely more important than a shorter trend line. 3. Trendline's Number of Hits The more frequent price hit a trend line, the more valid the trend line. A trend line which is hit 3 times by the price signals a more valid than a trend line which only receives 2 hits. 4. The Angle of a Trend Line The steeper the trend line, the faster the action of a group of traders. A trend line that has a 60 degrees angle shows a faster action of a group of traders than a 45 degrees trendline. 5. Number of Trading Volume relative to direction of price movement The larger trading volume which is moving in the same direction of a trend line, the more valid the trendline. If price is moving in the direction of a trend line with a greater volume, it confirms the trend. If price is pulling back to a trend line with smaller volume, it also confirms the trend. Channel Trendline’s Price Channel is made up by two parallel trend lines. One trend line is connecting tops of price hikes while the other is connecting the bottoms of price declines. The wider the channel the stronger the trend. The steeper the channel, the more likely it is that price will break out of the channel downward.

It looks pretty but I am a price action based trader I hardly use any indicators.

That is one of the most helpful posts I have read on a forum many thanks.

Its a trend based system with hourly setups on the major pairs. I am a swinger.

Hi, Can a pro who has been using trendline’s tell me of their experience when usually they are broken or when best to buy or sell off a bounce or when they break? After trading for 1 year I find it breaks usually on the 4th or 5th bounce more on the 5th bounce break and the odd occasion 3rd while the 2nd bounce is the strongest. Thanks.

I feel you’re getting the wrong impression by my rules. Yes, it’s impossible to get an eye on 100 things either on a baseball field or a chart however, I do not construct my charts in the way you think I take it step by step ruling out or confirming each one like a checklist. Everyone says trading is so simple like you only need a moving average crossover and MACD to point up/down and that’s your system which is a myth. Yes, it works sometimes as random entries work sometimes, however over the longer period your drawdown will be large. We retailers do have to not act and use the exact same tools as the big banks yes they are more software, money, experienced traders, however don’t the corner shop need to know the prices of the big stores in order to come in line with prices at their own store? If they continue to increase their prices no one will come and we know where they will go. Traders who know where the smart and dumb money is are more successful than those who don’t. The thing is you have to have a system which filters out the good/bad trades according to your plan, mm and risk profile. If that means scanning markets which majority of moderate and experienced traders do. I have been using 1 or 2 cross pairs and was getting nowhere and now I have opened myself up to 28 cross pairs and the opportunities are a lot more yes they are bad trades in their as well. I think you got me wrong that I want a cut and dried solution I am not trying to be 110% correct on all my points but trying to confirm at least 3 or more points in order to trade. So, what makes you sure that the futures market is no different in those prices? Yes, it’s less competition but those prices are wild imo I only trade between 0.7 – 3.5 pip variable spreads on my pairs and that gets me 12 cross pairs. Yes, I am looking for advice and some have given advice I have taken it on board, but nothing strong to suggest I should amend xyz rather the majority have citizen my plan and 1 member not on this forum told me to burn it and join his live trade room of unsuccessful traders. I don’t care what others think about my system they can use it all they like or not in fact I advise them not to as it may not be suited to their personality. Well, the major turning point last Wednesday 21st at 10am BST on the EUR/USD was 1.303 made a huge bearish pin bar for price to drop for the rest of the day. My question to you is what apart from looking at 1 or 2 pairs would you take out of my plan. This is a great post and should be a model for others as an example. The system you mentioned may work but I find it hard to accept it is that simple wouldn’t 95% of retailers be making bucket loads if it was like that? What about market structure, trends looking and past trend lines etc. you seem to miss all this out where the experts as well as my own experience say these are a requirement. Happy new year.

Great advice however I do feel that my plan is simple yes it has alot of steps on it but if as some say only follow 1 or 2 rules to enter a trade its like saying play baseball only if you know how to use a ball and bat no use using your speed, intelligence, rules of the game etc. I heard some top experts saying if you have more things on your chart than S&R and trendlines your over complicating your system which I find unbeliveable. I dont believe huge banks and instituations use only those to make millions I have seen their setups and they have technical indicators and lots of rules in place. So, what would you advise me to take off my plan? I disagree that looking at 9 markets is bad for a newbie I was always told to specialise in 1 currency pair while others had clearer trends and setups and even if not trading you learn a heck of a lot its like watching 1 baseball game which is boring compare to 9 top league games. Why would currency futures be any better it still uses the same concept.

I learned from a trades pscology apparantly after 2 good winning trade 20-100 point wins you start to feel invinceable and end up giving it back and after 2 losing trades you start a losing streak.

I have taken on board what others have said, but I do not feel I have way to much stuff going on I am not going to use 3 vague rules. I like to filter out areas which I have learned to see if they fit the market. No where did I say that all my rules had to be 110% I didn't mention in my previous thread that I only look for 3 reasons to enter a trade out of the 20 possible confirmation points. Analysing I am monitoring and marking key points and swing levels at that time. I am going to amend my plan by stating that only 3 of the following 20 points required to be met to find a valid signal. See attachments for my overall setup before zooming in. Yeah, putting I seems more personal I agree good idea. Good idea for the small card, but things always small get lost around here lol. I have out it on my whiteboard. To be honest I would love to simply it so easy it takes 2 mins to read and follow, however I would be missing so many things out which I feel will come back to haunt me. I am considering making it more of a checklist. I am also considering making live videos and talk through what I am thinking at the time of the trade do you think it will help as writing your setup or results can be difficult and you miss things out.

I have not backtested my system to be honest as many people tell you that its a waste of time previous results do not predict future results. Do you thing this is the missing element? I use a trend swing based system I am not looking for small 5-10 pip scalps, however I like to implement a scalp incorperated into my system of some sort. I look at several markets so I can learn more about price I think thats important I think as you get more experienced and profitable you can specialise in a niche market like some people trade all but Yens or the Euro. The thing with chat rooms is that there strategy is completely different to your own and risk to reward and account size is different to your own. Yes, you can pick up a few things but a lot of it is complicated and you have a million and 1 questions which never get answered and it confuses you. How do you know they make money consistantly? They may make a few bucks here and there but when they lose no one talks. Can you recommend me any?

Hi, How do traders when a trade is placed and it goes on longer than expected and a new session is approaching do you get out and re enter or continue reguardless?

The breakout has to be a momentum bar stabbing right through it plus a 2-3 candle pullback and take it wait for the close also to be extra safe never enter on the first breakout.

I trade all majors I pick 1 or 2 from the bunch which has the steepest trend and a healthy range. Good idea an indicator for everyday! I have ditched most of them going back to the drawing board I have uploaded a new trading strategy. Great post! Do you find volume really matters in forex there are a large amount of experienced trader that say stay away from it as forex is not centralised? Isn't the COT futures data a leading indicator for the fx spot/rolling day market? Care to share your plan I have attached it to this thread. I second that to your last statement I have learned more myself looking at the charts moving than people on forums, articles, videos. This is a self taught industry, but it doesnt have to be imo but too many rip off artists out there thats the big problem and poor education. Most of these live trading rooms don't educate you properly how to trade or go through with you on your trade there are too many people and most of the time your questions dont get answered your at the will of the moderators. Barry burns is an excellent teacher learned loads from him. Will have a read at the The Keltner channel system however I already use the 50 SMA I find it excellent to go short from. What is your win/loss ratio and drawdown percentage on using those system? Great advice will take on board mate.

Okay I have spent hours recontructing it to more simpler and less indicators how does this look better or worse? Please add anything or delete. DAILY TRADING RULES.doc

Hi, I am looking for some advice from some more experienced trader to improve on my trading system/rules. I have removed a lot of indicators from my system and I am designing my own based on the past 9 months experience in learning and experimenting. Please review and add or take away what you feel may benefit my system. Please see attachment .doc DAILY TRADING RULES.doc

Hi, I hope someone more experienced can guide me to constructing a decent simple trading system. I am an intra-day trader mostly trading 15 min timeframes on the Eur/Usd only. I look at the swissy and cable for correlations only. My main trading analysis is based on previous supply and demand zones on the 4/1/30 min timeframes I look for confluences. I go with the trend always. I use a point based rating system which I base my risk to reward ratio on. The more evidence I have to enter a trade the more I risk but no more than 3% of total account. I look for 2 profit levels 1 at 20 points and 2nd at 40 points moving my stop to breakeven after 20 points as capital preservation is my number 1 goal even if it takes longer to become profitable. I wait for a rally in price and wait for a double top/bottom enter on a retest of the high/low's at the necklines and look for candlestick formations. I use Fibonacci cluster zones from the W/D/4/1 and also pivot clusters I increase/lower my risk when I see weekly or monthly pivots approaching price. I use the 5 min chart to get a more precise entry/exit/stop price and warning for the 15 min timeframe. I use the 1/4 for the current trend look at the last few candle bars. My arsenal of tools are: harmonics ABCD, Psychological Levels RSI, MACD, MA's, Trend lines, Pin Bar Reversals, Bolly Bands, Alligator. I also use a couple other systems within my own strategy if they confirm if I add them on if they don’t I leave them. I use the Pip Accumulator with trend probability, Siddus System, SRS Trend Rider and Ultra Trend line system as extras. I do not clog my chart up with all these indicators and price action points but keep them separate to make it naked as possible. Personally, I like the idea of going total naked using support and resistance only, but it makes me shiver that I haven't done my analysis properly I am comfortable on the idea that there is a confluence/cluster zones rather than only S&R zones. The only areas that I feel I can improve on is moving to the 4 hour charts I would like to, but I can't wait that long I would rather be stopped out in 1 hour than waiting 4 hours for a winner sorry but that's me. I am reading as much as I can about price action and watching tutorials learning new things, but I am at my wits end about to pack it all in as it’s not working for some reason yet I have a glimmer of hope as my account is not blown up yet. I do get burnt out on most days with information tried to take a back step but trading is far too attractive to stay away the computer for a few days. If anyone can add or erase anything that you feel will help my system feel free too as I am out of ideas. Thanks for reading.