BearBullTrading

Whilst I didnt trade NQ today, I did have a few thoughts for review from a CWS perspective whilst following....Missed some things and saw some things. Trading Range extremes at approx 2682 > 2657 Mid point at approx 2670 1...Missed seeing the the move originating from the mid point to support. 2...Saw a "hinge at support. 3...Saw the LH top on tick chart at mid point....CWS exit a long from 2 & CWS have looked for short for move back to S. 4...Saw previous S acting as R 5...CWS have looked for short on rejection of 4

Yes..20 x price changes....I use this resolution primarily as an overall view/summary. I look at a 15 sec and a low resolution tick chart to follow price movement for more exact entries/exits more closely in RT. Cheers

Wasn't on my game today.... Due to circumstance missed about the first 15 mins after pit open..This is often a good time to get positioned so felt uncomfortable having missed it. I had a valid entry to short just as I was getting settled in but passed as had already missed an earlier entry point Took a short entry later (mid screen) but the quick exit was random... Accepted I wasn't "on it" so chose to be an observer for remainder of session. Cheers

Chart 1 : Daily We have come back to the lower end of the Large Trading Range, having failed to take out the previous swing high. I have marked a line in an area where price has touched several times. Price has also made excursions below this line - the purpose is to indicate a general area of interest, not necessarily a specific level. Chart 2 : Overnight Session We see price fell below previous day low (cyan line) before forming a range prior to the pit open. The ON low is formed between 8.5800/8.6000 & there are a couple of slightly larger volume bars going into the low and coming out.. I didn't notice these on this chart in RT at the time of printing. Only later in day & may be (in)significant ? Chart 3 : 15 Second First trade: Long above red line. At this point we were still in the pre open range indicated on previous chart..Violation of my plan as I should have waited to see which which out of that range we moved. Stopped for loss on break of demand line(mental, not drawn) and Lower Low. Second trade : Short on break of minor consolidation. Stopped for loss on pullback (error printing chart) Chart 4 : 15 Second I've shown my long entry here, break above green line (printed as quick as I could in RT) but maybe the most interesting aspects are my thoughts/observations behind it in RT as opposed to the actual entry/exit, - We are in a general area where there "may" be an attempt to provide support. - The DOM : . Wheat generally has about 15 > 30 contracts shown at each level on the DOM. As price was falling from 8.6350 I noticed about 150/200 contracts bid at 8.6000.Price initially bounced of 8.6025 (the bids stayed at 8.6000). Price bounced, came back and filled the large bid. There was a a nice bounce before again coming to re-test the lows. This time price went through, found more volume & then reversed AFTER this reaction & we got back to the 8.6000 level there were still bids in the DOM of 120/130 contracts layered at 8.5975 / 8.5925 / 8.5875. I don't know, or need to know the motives behind the bids - could be exiting previous shorts or opening new positions... We DO know that we are in a possible low of day / reversal area & that higher than average bids have already been filled in this area, and there are still unfilled bids for more. Also in approx area of ON low, where there was slightly higher volume ON as per chart 2 comments - Following the "spring" off the low, we test the previous reaction high. At this point I'm thinking how the person(s) who were bidding for a further 400 contracts at the lows is thinking...How bad do they want them...Does another point or two matter to them ?....Will they be given a 2nd opportunity at the low? ..Will they get aggressive ? From the reaction high we consolidate briefly. .This makes me think as we havent (yet) retested lower. may move higher, but I have to wait for the market to show its handr.. Price takes out the previous 2 reaction highs = Long Chart 5 : 20 change / complete day This chart shows just shows where the above took place in relation to how the remainder of the day played out. The lines have been transposed from my 15 sec shown and dont show everything I was thinking, my movement SL/DL lines etc. As Db recently mentioned, it depends how involved one wants to be , but there were further opportunities for those who wanted to hang around, add etc. Cheers

Yep... Working with SL/DL breaks together with S&R / swing H/L's etc is a balancing act for me and I do not have a definative "if / then" approach as to what is my "reason" to enter/exit based on the above will be. Sometimes it will simply be a break of the SL, other times I want to see a HH etc. When making these decisions in RT I acknowledge and accept my decisions will not always be optimal.

- First short below green line...Exit shown by red line. Higher High - Re-entry short below 2nd green line....Exit shown by red line., break of swing high. I was shorting here not far above the low of day.. Not always a place some traders like to play, but watching in real time having drifted sideways for 15 mins I felt there didn't seem like any desire to move higher, so felt an early entry as opposed to a more usual LOD break entry worthwhile. The hindsight analysis tells me I "could've" taken a bit more from the market by just exiting at the break of supply lines, or waiting until higher swing points taken out but in Real Time I'm ok with the way things went.

I don't know if this is the correct place for this....but there may be a trade someone could, would or should take , so.... Chart 1: Strip back the chart to a line on close. Whilst the close doesn't have any significance for intraday, on a daily+ I do look at it, as the close is the point we finally end up after everyone who wants to, big or small has had an opportunity to have their say. Using the line chart we can identify a large Trading Range. Within the range we have a hinge. The hinge was firstly broken to the upside, hitting the TR high before immediately moving back to the low end of the hinge where it spent a few days before a just as sharp move to the downside and subsequent rejection of the lows to end just above the approx midpoint & top of (inner) hinge.. Chart 2: When we change to a bar chart we can see the extremes & another few touches of the TR high. (Although not marked, it looks like there is a smaller TR within the large TR: approx 8.7000 > 9.100) Chart 3 : By adding (orange) lines at the extremes, we now have another hinge whilst the midpoint has stayed the same. (Price has strayed out of the lower hinge line, but thats ok, it was fairly brief & they're just lines on a chart and have no magical power to make price do anything ;-) ). I've also added a lower sloping (red) Trend line at the upper extremes. So what scenarios do we have.... - Could already be short at the slight break of the low a couple of days ago, you could still be in, (although with a decent drawdown) if your SL is above the last swing high. - Could already be long at the rejection of the lows, need to see it take out last swing high, break hinge to the upside. - Could short here at upper hinge line with a tight SL above last swing high. - Could buy break of hinge/swing High looking for test of TR high/TR line The hinge demonstrates a coiling effect of pressure building, and as we have seen an excursion to both the upside and downside before rejection back into the TR. From here, as price moves through time, the hinge may be a spent force and we just drift either way within the range or a break may serve as a catalyst to exit the larger TR...we'll see

Not a film.......but...I love this, so.. Rare footage of legendary Bond Trader, Charlie DiFrancesca (Charlie D) giving a speech to new traders in 1989. The talk is split into 12 parts Note: You will likely have to turn your computer sound settings right up to hear. Cheers

Open Outcry : Documentary about the pits Cheers

Move into lower range rejected. Back to mid point'ish of large trading range. Took a small piece of a large pie today... Long above lowest red line, out on break of last demand line. There were certainly opportunity to hold/add long positions.....but at least the golf if good Cheers

Daily Price at top of small range 10 min / Overnight Range for last few hrs of o/n session. Closed at prior day close. Today: Look for reaction to see if move further down into "new" range or higher towards yesterdays breakdown point . or more tempting may be just watch the Ryder Cup. Cheers

Enron : The smartest guys in the room Cheers

ok..time to join in... Note: I've tried capturing my charts during the day. Some of the SL lines I've just watched visually rather than drawing on charts and have sometimes moved them. One of the recently mentioned points that helped me stay on the right side today was just because price is near potential support don't just expect it to bounce. Daily Chart: (approx) Broad extremes of wide rading Range: 8.6000 / 9.6000 Price near low end of range. Poss Breakout ? of large "hinge". - just mentioning above because as a daytrader not a reason in itself for me to get in 10 min / Overnight Price tested prior day low. Last bar is "pit opening bar" heading back to approx mid of o/n upper range. 15 second chart Price nicked the mid line. Broke demand line, Consolidation breaks = short. 1 Minute chart I was "shaken out" in blue area at green line.Re entered short . Exit at break of supply line. 20 change chart After break of supply line, attempt higher/HH before resumption lower. Price in sideways range before moved lower again. Currently now at/near top of lower smaller range high lit on daily chart. Wheat is same size tick/point as ES so pretty nice action & some smooth/decent opportunities either in 90 mins or for those who stayed (not me) around longer. Cheers

Capital City -This was a UK TV series aired in 1989/90. Fond memories of this one as I was just starting my banking career in London .. Watching this and reading Liars Poker convinced us we were all gonna be "Big Swinging D**** " in no time :rofl: Anyone remember watching this series ?.....Was it aired overseas ? One of the main actors, Douglas Hodge (Declan) was also in the tv drama Dealers (1989) - which apparantly used the same dealing room set as Capital City Cheers

Inside Job - Oscar Winning "Best Documentary" about the crash of 2007/09. narrated by Matt Damon Too Big to Fail - dramatization about Lehman / crash / bailouts etc Cheers

Ahhh... the ole days when 5 pip cable spreads...chain smoking in the room....and light brown trading desks were "in"... Here's a video from the same era featuring the current NZ Prime Minister, John Key. John key forex trader - YouTube

New album out today so thought a M & S song was appropriate... <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/rGKfrgqWcv0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

One of my favourite songs from a fav band of mine... though I'm liking this version with Noel G .. <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/H4b48Jx7Un0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Couldnt resist putting another one up...

So every indicator, chart type , entry signal etc you mention or show in this thread is freely available for everyone who has a desire to be "educated" by you, correct. You cant "educate" a class if you don't provide the "textbooks" for everyone.

Whilst addressed to SIUYA here's how I do it (or dont)... I don't enter a trade using a R:R ratio... I don't . If I see no reason to get out, then I want to stay in..Being taken out at breakeven just so I don't lose, whilst my reason for initially taking & remaining in a trade is still valid doesn't work for me. I don't.... every trade has a risk and it will either win or lose...I do not label specific trades as having a "High/Low probability" or "high/low risk". Cheers

I do not use a risk:reward ratio... If I have a reason to enter, I want to enter and at this initial point I do not know where I will exit Once I have entered a trade, every tick and trade thereafter will have some consequence on the market outside of my control....therefore My job is to stay in until I see a "reason" to get out...That "reason" may come 1 tick..10 ticks...100 ticks, whatever, after I have entered.

Beware the ETF trap..? "..While the price of an ETF closely tracks the underlying index's value, the volume of an ETF only reflects the popularity of the ETF itself - NOT THE SUPPLY OR DEMAND FOR THE THING THE ETF TRACKS...(authors Capitals)" From here... BEWARE THE "ETF" TRAP - ChartWatchers - StockCharts.com Blogs Cheers...

If I just note some points on your chart as to what has happened... - The market makes a low (1st green candle) (Point A) - Market moves up and makes a high (Point B) - Retraces about 50/55%(eyeballing it) and makes a higher low (low of Green candle) (Point C) - Market moves higher, above point B (D), - you enter A common method of determining wether price will continue in a direction is looking at the swing high/low sequence...If its making HH..HL..HH...HL etc, someones assumption may be that it will continue to do so, until the sequence is invalidated. If using this "structure" point of view, the sequence of Low (A)..High (B)..Higher Low ©...Higher High (D) would be broken and invalidated below point C, therefore the stop would be just below Point C, as that is were this "trade logic" has gone wrong , (If your logic is based on price touching channel lines for entry/exits I cant comment as I don't subscribe to the same "trade logic" re channels to base a trade decision on). Only you can decide if this size stop is to rich, depending on where you anticipate the market going, how often/likely you expect it to happen etc. Having a larger stop does not necessarily mean "greater drawdowns" or increased "risk" With the caveat that this is hindsight analysis (of which everyone is an expert) and without much market background ..Once in the trade at your entry point, after the trade developed a stop could have been moved up below the green candle (2 candles after entry) or below the green "hammer" (5 candles after entry)..(A break above the hammer could have been an adding point) ... Whilst this hindsight analysis shows the above, or even just leaving a stop at the initial point C would have "worked".. they are just ideas to think about as the market develops and next time, when trading on the right edge, this approach could just as easily "fail" Trade Well..

Being able to "see" the market will not put 1$ in someones account....It is the ability to "act" that causes extraction. Trade Well...

Tom I think the way you are currently posting is fine.. (Yours, Josh, Neg8r posts are some of the most useful here) Posting thoughts, rationale, ideas, trades (if you want to) as the market is developing is far more interesting & beneficial than posting a chart with a couple of green arrows way after the event saying...."I bought here..".. Your primary responsability is to yourself, so going forward post what & how You are comfortable with Trade Well....