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karoshiman
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Everything posted by karoshiman
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How Does a Profitable Trade System Lose Value when Made Public?
karoshiman replied to Iro's topic in Technical Analysis
You can see this effect Steve describes with famous market anomalies (from the viewpoint of efficient market theory) which worked for several years but slowly lost their edge until there was none compared to a buy and hold strategy. However, it was surprising for me to see for how long some anomalies prevailed. Some very simple strategies outperformed the market for nearly ten years before becoming useless. -
I enjoy the neutrality of your posts, N! You just observe and describe. The rest is up to the markets!
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Good point N! I've realized this week, that I have to be careful with posting my projections in the forum, as I tend to be "married" to these for prolonged periods if I do so - to my disadvantage of course. It's a personality kind of thing, I guess. It might be possible for some to do it and still be open to other outcomes. But I think I am not this kind of person. I think, Josh mentioned it also. I actually don't care what the market is doing tomorrow. It is irrelevant for my trading decisions. I just look where we are NOW and whether one of my setups occurs. That's it...
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You are absolutely right! At the beginning, when I've developed my own method, I was stunned... every time I've got a signal and entered, volume increased and price moved in my direction... I thought to myself "... man, some other guys are looking at the same thing I do!" ... but then I realized that others have different methodologies but just get the signals at the same time...
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Thanks, gosu, that was a very interesting post! Did you check the congestion and retest part too? I know, I am sooo lazy... ... if you haven't done it you bet I will look into it myself
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Hi everyone, I was yesterday also very bearish and expected a much bigger move downward, especially after the news. I was bearish before the news already and thought the weak news were the catalyst for the big move down. But I was surprised about the strength of the market here. I think we can agree that after such long consolidation a big move must happen, be it up or down. After yesterday's less than expected down move, I have a bias to the upside now. But ACH... I expect the big move for today, although it is opex, or the beginning of next week... Regards, karo
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Hi clmac, I agree with gosu on this one... too many cooks spoil the broth. It is good to see from time to time how others think about the market at the moment and where they see key support or resistance, but it could also distract a lot as you do not get the full picture in such thread. One might trade only for a few ticks target within seconds, the other is watching slightly bigger moves on the 5 min chart and another one is looking for the one big trend trade per day. They all could make a profit but their entries and exits are at different times and levels than yours. Anyway, it is fun to hang around other guys who try to squeeze out some bucks from the same stuff you are looking at ... but then again you have to have the time for it... for instance, with my bread and butter business I have difficulties trying to post my trades in real time. Regards, karo
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I'm looking for the 65-ish area as a first target but think that much lower prices are possible. But I was scared by the strong up move during ETH session. lol
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Hi Slick, I do not understand your charts, but I like your conclusion... Do you have a target in mind for the step one down? Regards, karo
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Understood. Thanks for your view. I too think that 85 is possible. I have a wide stop on this one and a smaller position size than usual (half of it).
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I think this was a head fake move... it's going lower IMO... sold half my long at 84, then got greedy and reentered higher... bad idea :doh: ... got out with a loss ... it's one thing being right and another taking a profit home :crap: I'm short now for overnight from 79.75... "hoping" for my first scenario 50-ies... EDIT: of course not the 50 overnight... but a nice move might still be possible overnight
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it is great upside potential now...
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long now at 82.25...
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covered rest at 80.75... looked too strong... might re-enter later
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lol... yes, hope says something around 60... eyeballs (& brain) still see the possibility for a strong up move... EDIT: ... meant 50...
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curious how far it goes down...
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covered half at 79.75
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I have a short position too (82 though). Like our friend Will I expect a bigger move to come... not sure though whether this will be to the downside... ready to switch my position if we see higher prices
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Yes, after that 71.75 was no reasonable situation to get back in. At least you stayed disciplined and did not chase the price which is a good thing.
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That means you like to fade moves more? I had a nice profit during globex session but gave it all (and more) back this morning ... talking about "balance", I am waiting for a breakout of this consolidation to get back in...
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lol... but I'd rather make a profit while sleeping, instead of being chopped, while being excited...
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That's some crazy action today...
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I see potential for even higher... maybe Negotiator's 92.50...
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Hi Negotiator, Thank you for the charts! Slowly I get used to them. Not long ago, when I've opened your charts I said to myself "%$/&!!!"... and closed them immediately... lol As I am still not an expert with these, could you please help me out with some questions I have? Are the red lines the respective VPOC? Are the green lines showing 2 Standard Deviations of volume around the mean? Is the black lined volume histogram on the right hand side (I don't know, how you call these "vertical volume mountains" ), the volume over the whole period 2012? Could you please post the same chart with pink background and magenta colored point & figure charts? ... okay, just kidding! Thanks in advance! Regards, k
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Hi, Good idea with the suggestions. 1. A help or FAQ section would be great. For someone new on the site, it takes some time to figure things out. For instance, I had to figure out the info on premium members by myself. I found it eventually by myself, but it is kind of hidden. Or, a little bit of transparency about the user status and how certain levels are obtained would be helpful, too (i.e. the X% Trader IQ, or the status "Complete", "Market Wizard", "Guru", etc.). I haven't found a section on this site where the logic behind it is explained. Or, what are the consequences of deleting visitor messages. When I tried to delete one, I had to give a reason why I want to delete it and the only option checked was "Soft' delete - Leave "Deleted" Message". What does that mean? Where is this explained? Or, what is the "Permalink" in the visitor message section? 2. Further, when I logged in on this site via my cellphone, my cellphone number was automatically saved in my "About me" page, public for everyone to see (this is the only explanation to me, as I would never post my phone number on a public site). That's not good and in certain countries even illegal to do so. I just saw it by chance and removed it. At least one should be asked whether this information can be saved and you could opt out. That's for the moment what comes to my mind. Regards, k