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I have heard of jaffray woodriff, but only to the extent which he was covered in Hedge fund market wizards.

Well, its not so much the "analysis" that I feel is archaic, it's the raw data being analyzed, specifically tick data aggregated by time. Econometric tools can be very useful, but in the same light, there are quite a few technical indicators that are actually very useful when you use them in a more realistic, and controlled manner. Data snooping is something I know very little about. It's not an avenue I choose to explore, mainly because for me, I like to build the trading process up from the concept, while data snooping is more like building the process and trying to work backwards to determine a concept.

Suby, Sorry to see your having trouble carving out your niche. So I'll offer up some of my thoughts on your statements above,

My thoughts on your thoughts.

From my (limited) experience, random data is largely used to gauge the statistical significance of results. It might also be used for theoretical market participants in building limit order book models. Also, testing an idea against random data to verify results would imply the tester believes markets are not random.

( I have a feeling this is a factorial question but I'm feeling lazy) if they are all rational in the economic sense, then they are self serving. Everyone would vote to kill the oldest for a larger share, until only the two youngest brothers are left and they split it 50m/50m but if they were smart the three eldest brothers would realize this, and sacrifice some of their gains to keep their lives. these arnt exact because im too lazy to do the math during the trading day but 1. the oldest would take around 7.5m and divide the rest up roughly 2 would receive around 12.5m 3 would receive around 20m 4 would receive around 30m 5 would receive around 30m (also 5 would receive the same amount as 4, because in the greedy situation where the 3 eldest are killed, the youngest doesn't have greater than 50% of the vote, 4 would except no less than 5).

Choose anyone that is better than you, and willing to teach/ help/ guide you for free. Even if they are not profitable, hopefully they can serve as a rung on your ladder.

You have your concepts a little backwards, First, $100 binary trade doesn't exist, that would be a trade with 0 probability of closing out of the money. The neat thing about the fixed scale of 0-100 is that: Probability ITM= total cost - fees This means as long as your buying OTM (out of money) your risk reward is always in your favor. So if you add any sort of reasonable unfair coin of an edge, you can make money fairly easily.

Agreed, so here is a quick one to get us back on track. A mother is twenty one years older than her son. In exactly six years, the mother will be exactly five times older than the son. Where is the father?

Bowl 1: 50 black marbles and 40 white marbles Bowl 2: 10 white marbles Choose the bowl that contains the least amount of marbles, (weighs the least), as that bowl has only white marbles.

He rode the train, which goes around by crossing under.

Is the game always played the same? meaning will the host always open a second door? Assuming the game is played the same every time, it would be neither to your advantage or disadvantage to switch your choice. But your odds of winning are greater.

Only open the doors with the lily and the fox. You need to prove that a bird IS on the other side of the lily, and that a flower ISN'T on the other side of the fox.

There isn't much that is concrete in trading. But if you are just trading intraday, a decent strategy would be entry on a "stop run" But you still need to be cognizant of trend days, because lots of trends are just fueled by people calling tops and bottoms. My advice would be to catch in on the way back up, not the way down.

This might be an interesting place to start Swing High / Swing Low Indicator for Think or Swim « Read the Prospectus Also maybe look into something like fractals, specifically, clusters of fractals.

Suby, sounds like you're making some great strides in your trading. Keep in mind, horses area measured against one another, where the probability of one of the horses winning is 1.0. But a well setup spread trade could be represented in this fashion. But a vague probability calculation could be made given your historic expectancy or the edge, your discretional ability to recognize and implement your strategy in real time, expected volatility, and risk vs reward of the individual trade. But risk vs reward of the trade tends to be a good jumping off point as for most traders it would represent a the likely outcome of their trade.

Actually the funny thing about that is quite frequently their research information is available for free. e.g. Marcos Lopez De Prado from tudor investment corp.

I would consider a few things, 1. Dance with the girl that brought you to the party. 2. If you decide to trade more markets, are the markets correlated? in other words, is the risk correlated? If the markets are correlated I would forget it. With correlated risks, you will likely end up with similar outcomes while sacrificing attention. Also you should consider volatility and contract value.

The Hierarchy of available information. Ordered by value, given extra visual stimulation by scaling font size with value. 1. Understand how much you don't know. 2. Information gathered from unbiased personal collection. 3. Peer reviewed scholarly articles. 4. Internet Forums. 5. PUBLISHED books (physically published). 6. self published E-books Also note internet forums can vary hugely, but the good information is out there with the bad.

Haha I don't think I would call it a seminal rule, but it can be used very effectively. With more time you will start to notice that days like these are not infrequent.

Couple things to think about, Mean is just a function of the data set, and your data set determines your trading environment/ timeframe. If you had those numbers going into this morning I would assume you are not generally intraday trading. For intraday, look at a smaller data set, and remember this "Kurtosis is king." Tread very carefully with mean reversion in instruments that are as volatile as futures, days like today are frequent, and will kill and feed on people saying "this thing can't go much lower"

It's just a way of modeling price movements, so you can't trade it per say. But I use something similar to an ARMA model for intraday, outright trading. Although ARMA is definitely on the simpler side of financial modeling, its easily altered and adapted for everything I have to throw at it.

No price has no memory. After 4 years at this, I still have no freaking clue what people are talking about when they say "momentum". I'm not sure what momentum is, so I have no idea how it would be discounted. But none of my trading models discounts for it. Yes MOST people are shooting darts at a moving board in the dark. But the markets are not random, they are just most accurately depicted by a random walk model. This means they are efficient, not random. Yes you can exploit inefficiencies, but finding them is the tricky part. Yes you can reasonably forecast the probabilities of future prices. But the farther out you go, the worse your odds get. The academics are right, and most "technicians" are just bastardizing what could actually be fairly robust statistical tools. And I'm fairly certain gartley patterns started as a traders inside joke about Keynes "animal spirits" and someone took them terribly out of context. Technicians are wrong, and likely the only thing they're good at is masturbation. That being said, academics might know the rules of the game, but don't know how to play. While technicians don't know either. Also I don't like pissing on peoples beliefs, so if anybody angry technicians read this, sorry. But chances are you will only really be pissed if your a technician and not making money.

ARCH/ GARCH Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ARMA Autoregressive Implied volatility Implied volatility - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia I hope you love math. Cause this is NOT an easy or typical path for a retailer to follow. (I would consider this a good thing) Edit.. Also do some reading on sports betting. Its far more relevant than most people would like to think. (thats a lesson I learned the hard way.)

By nature, volatility and liquidity are on opposite sides of the scale. The greater the liquidity the less volatility. What your looking for is as much volatility as you require, with sufficient liquidity. Check out /6E for your timeframe.