SpearPointTrader

I just trade. I enjoy talking the game, but I have no aspirations of teaching anyone anything.

I seek to wait until the guy in the lab coat is actually putting the food somewhere, then I go there.

One does need to learn this one phase at a time. If you don't understand basic price bar trading, you can't get the Bollinger band MA combo stuff. One method builds on the other.

Yeah, I have to agree here. Smaller consistent wins, with smaller draw downs is much more preferable to the "Hail Mary" pass, entering on a break out of a 1-2-3 pattern, and hanging on for dear life in a trend that you see in your mind....when the market in reality just goes meandering around sideways and aimlessly for weeks on end..... The problem with systems that have large draw downs, is that they assume they know the future, because of some arbitrary rule set thier system follows. It's ridged thinking, in a fluid environment. In reality, the market could care less that you think it should go down, just because a bar closed below your second point in a pattern of congestion. The problem over all, is that market decisions are often made from the *Assumption* that a longer term trend will be in play, because X,Y, or Z occurs. Then that expectation has us making decisions, and placing trades all based on some imaginary market movement or start of some imaginary trend pattern that WE MADE UP in our own heads. In reality, the market is aloof, and loopy, and just as likely to go do a hand stand next to a tree, as it is to write a new chapter in the Bible.

Drawdown kills me emotionally as well. I avoid it at all costs. As a result, I make many little trades when I have the most momentum in my favor. This has practically eliminated my draw downs. I also miss positive moves because of this as well though. Some for no reason. On the other hand, I have found that consistently adding smaller amounts, and always moving forward satisfies me. I may be in a trade for only 90 seconds, and only make $84, but at 10 contracts that is $840.00, How many people make $840 in a day? Winning most of the time, allows one to put more money down, and controll more contracts with confidence.

I used to do that. I am doing much better with overlayed indicators. The method I am reviewing uses price, through trend lines, areas of support and resistance, and well known patterns of congestion to choose the markets using the weekly and daily time frames initially. Then once the markets that are good have been identified, it over layes the Bollingerbands and Moving averages to make the final entrance and exit timing using the daily and intra day charts. The reason this is significant is that the markets are ever flowing, ever changing environments. These indicators move and adapt with those changes giving a more accurate point of support and resistance than using naked price bars alone. By adapting to this system, I have been able to almost eliminate any draw down for example. It allows me to time the market almost to the exact point that it's "Go time".

Yeah, it's doable. The system I am reviewing now uses multiple time frames, and the relationship between the Bollinger Bands, and the 3 main moving averages to choose markets and time entries and exits. By themselves, they don't really do much. However, when used together, thier relationship to each other makes all the difference in the world. Once you understand the program, it's not even all that difficult.

I have come to the same conclusions. I actually watch the weekly, daily, 30 minute, 10 minute and 3 minute charts. By ONLY entering when they are all saying the same thing, I have been able to get my win loss ration to 80% wins, 20% losses. Often, I beat that by a good amount. I have noticed that my average win is much smaller though. However, so are the losses and there are far fewer of them now.

I can agree 100% on the psychological part.

Well, I can trade any commodity, index or financial that has a margin under 10k. However, I tend to stick with the hard commodities, Grains, meats, Softs, Metals and Energies. If I don't have the margin to trade a market, I generally paper trade it anyway, if the technical set up is good. I have been reviewing the system from Facts Trading for the last few months. Although it is for Futures, it seems to work for everything.

Like you, I have dedicated a substantial amount of time developing my skills. I am always looking to further improve as well. Right now, I predominantly work on Futures trading. However, pure technical trading is pretty much the same, across the board. For example, in the system I am reviewing now, the 2 main indicators generally always do the same things when the market starts to move into a new trend. Which market I am looking at seems to be irrelevant. We will see if this works in the long run applied to the Forex as well. So far it is though. You are right on the money about the psychology part. That is a much bigger aspect than is overtly visible. Trading is one of the few things that is totally counter intuitive. A healthy detachment, and almost *Not* caring seems to find the greatest success. Saying "F it" and blowing off the day to go sailing is often more productive than putting your nose to the grind stone.

I have not read this whole thread, so forgive me if I am redundant. I feel the 95% number is probably accurate if you count everybody who ever enters the markets. However, if you limit your sample to just professional traders, who have made a career out of trading, my guess is that very few lose on a regular basis. It's thier JOB to win. We have a huge trading industry. It's so huge, that it is very difficult to comprehend. If the pros were not winning most of the time, the trading industry simply would not exist. You could look at it in the context of professional fighting (MMA/Boxing/Kick Boxing etc...) In the lower ranks, ALL lower level fighter lose on a regular basis. By the mid level ranks, they start wining much more often. The high level guys win more often, than not. The elite win most of the time. Trading is the same way. The goal is to always be working to advance to the next higher division. What league are you in?

Honestly, I have to disagree here. Systems that lose more often than they win drain accounts. It's the death of a thousand cuts. I'd rather win most of the time, and have the confidence to put more money on the line, than have to suffer loss, after loss, after loss waitng for the big trade to not only make up for all that, dig me out of the hole, and hopefully add a bit of profit too. One of the base premises of the Facts Trading is that we really can't predict the market. We have no way of knowing the future, and ultimately we don't know what we are doing. So it's better to wait for massive momentum to begin, and jump in while the market is already moving. Obviously we want to get in as early as we can on a move, but it's important to jump on when the market is already doing something, rather than suffer repeated losses trying to "Predict" the next megga trend that will hopefully recover the last 20 loses and then some.

Looks like the Oath Keepers are getting involved, in an effort to steer the Occupy Wall street in a more constitutional direction. Oath Keepers » Blog Archive » The Wayseers Join Oath Keepers To Occupy The Occupation!

I have learned that anyone can succeed, with the right education, and a properly funded account.

I disagree with your numbers. I personally have found a break out of any congestive pattern to be on average 50% to maybe 60% accurate at best. The only one I have ever seen that approaches 80% are break outs of long, tight channels. By Long, I mean 18 to 20 days at minimum. I have found to approach an 80% win loss ration, you need to be looking at over laying systems. You could start with basic price moment, understanding how trendlines and support/resistance works, (including Fibonacci levels) and pattern/congestion break out systems; but to also add the 3 main moving averages and use of Bollinger bands (like the Facts Trading does), or Volume. Some people like to use momentum indicators, stochastic, or the Williams%R as well. It's does not matter what your favorite indicator is, so long as you are using 2 or 3 of them on top of the basics. The system I am using now is the best I have ever seen because of this layering of methods.

I'd rather have consistent smaller wins, and be confident I WILL win 80% + of the time, then suffer through 20 losses waiting for the big one that may not come until my account has be drawn down to almost zero. Adding contracts through the trend is a horrifically bad idea as well. You become dangerously over leveraged that way. The weather the storm stuff, and contract multiplication seems to make sense "On Paper", but it has cost more accounts than can be counted in the long haul. This is especially so for those with less than 50K accounts. Ken Roberts does not know how to trade. The guys at http://www.factstrading.com have it right.

Actually, you are correct. However, the protesters desire to destroy what we have, and usher in some sort of New, modern evolved system that looks remarkably like Soviet Communism is still going to destroy what we have. To genuinely improve things, we need to restore real capitalism, and restore the Constitution.

I am fairly certian E-signal works with Options Express, so you may want to look into that as well.

I would add, make sure the method wins more than it lose, both monetarily, and the win loss ratio (how many trades win, vs lose)

If these morons get thier way, we are all doomed. Capitalism *IS* the economy. Take it down, and you take down the entire economy. Then no one has a job, or means to support themselves and we all starve. It does not take much brain power to understand that reality...yet some how, they don't. The funny part, is most of the Brokers that reside in the buildings they are protesting have apprenticeship programs. If they take some time off of protesting, clean up and make an effort, they too can be the 1%. How Ironic is that?

One big problem with using smaller time frames, is that they represent much smaller moves, for the same pattern. You have to guard against taking chances on potential moves that don't have a lot of momentum. As a purley technical trader,I also advise against limiting yourself to one market. It's much better to scan a lot of markets, in search of the best technical set ups. Those setups all trade the same, reguardless of what market they are in.

One of the things I do is use multiple time frames at once. I used the weekly to find markets with strong direction, then the daily chart to find markets that are moving the same way as the weekly chart is. This helps me choose what market to trade that day. Then it's just a matter of watching the intra day charts for the actual entry timing. Once in the markets, I pay very close attention to certian details. If they stop lining up, I exit wiith a small profit right away. Generally, that prevents me fomr being stopped out. My goal is to keep drawdowns to a minimum, or non existent if I can. I am using the Facts Trading method, because it is specifically geared for small accounts. The course is a bit pricey, but well worth it in the long run. The sections on psychology are worth the price of the course alone.

Options Express was not only down, but thier phones were as well.

I have to use IraChart because that is all my broker offers. It's a great system, however there are a few features it lacks. For example, the basic live feed does not have unlimited charts. I also use a cheaper delayed data charting system from E-signal, which I think is awesome for my initial searches. It has unlimited charts, and allows me to store charts with good looking set ups in a favorites folder to open later; in order to perform a deeper study. E-signal has a live streaming version as well, that seems to work with every broker but mine. I'd use it as a single platform if I could.