SpearPointTrader

Less than 1 year? Do you trade as well as you do math? Maybe you should not be challenging people and calling names. You might do better in social settings. As for my system, no. I don't have an audit on it. I don't share my personal method with anyone. I don't trade anyone's accounts with it, and I didn't intend to. So other than general conversation, it's not relevant to anyone but me. The computerize algorithm is what I have records for.

For what? The trading system I was talking about? That started in jan 2011. If you want to PM me, I can provide you with a copy of the logs on PDF if you like. Oh, and thats 'Mister Princess' to you.

I think we can all agree on that. True. That is the route I took with my personal day trading method. I have my own way of using the Bollinger Bands, and the 3 main moving averages to time entries, and exits. I really don't agree with this at all. Maybe 15 years ago, but todays markets are donated by High Frequency, computerized algorithms. Quite frankly they make it difficult to be in for very long. I went from looking at 30 minute charts to trigger pulling, ot the 10 minute, as an example. Over all fundamentals still determine over all direction, as they always have, but getting from here, to there is just not what it was. This thought is that this is because the extremes of the previous days range have a high percentage of getting hit, or surpassed (in the direction of the trend). So a safe bet is often to buy under the previous days high (In a bull trend), and set an MIT at that high to exit, because it's a good risk to take. What is more risky, is trying to figure how far beyond that previous days high will the price go. Makes sense to try and take the easy money. This should cause a lot of MITs to he bit right at, or near that level, which drives the price down, giving the impression traders are looking to protect that level. Yup. I suggest making sure you only trade near perfect setups. It's easy to chase the markets around when they are bouncing around like a ping pong ball...but that does not mean you can get in and out at good times. Better to wait for the opportune moment. If you have a set up, that wins 80% of the time, you are way better off loading up on that one trade, riding it out and calling it a day, than trying to trade 1 contract at a time, all day long chasing what is essentially random market action.

I am going to start this off by stating that I am currently a broker for Aim Futures and Options. That said, we are currently gearing up to offer access to a trading system for the e-mini based on a computerized algorithm. The system started in January of 2011, and to date, including commissions and fees, has gone from a 5k start, to just under 12K. Yes, I know that Past Performance, is Not Indicative of Future Results, however, it is really hard to look at that and not think the risk may be acceptable to many people. I would say that it is possible to make a living trading the E-mini, if you have a good strategy. Please note that there is an inherent risk of loss associated with trading futures and options contracts. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Yes...This more often than not the case. The more you go for the more often you loose. I try to set a goal. $150. per day, combined from as few trades as possible on a given day. Of course, I hope to make that $150. in a single trade. The goal is a minimum of $750. per (5 day week.) Or, $150. per day average. Get the $150, hit and run, don't go back. Don't even look back. Greed is a killer. I don't even care how much I make in a single day. I just take each legit set up, and follow it to it's conclusion, or I pass my average win. If I have very clear signals, I stay in longer, but more often than not, the signals get blurry after the first initial swing on the intra day chart anyway, so i take what I got and run.

You should know you are wrong, and get out long before you ever hit your stop.

I can...knowing how to properly trade a Bollinger Band Squeeze would qualify.

I have exit rules, that basically tell me if the relationship between price, moving averages and bollinger bands changes (especially to previously established anti set ups), I exit regardless of any other factor. I do miss a lot of good run ups this way, but I feel preventing losses is much more important. I wrote a whole chapter on what I call the "rubber band effect". To sum it up, there is support, resistance, and the tension on the rubber band. As far as i know, I am the only one that recognizes that the rubber band effect exists. It explains sudden price reversals that occurs even though the price never got to a support or resistance level. It also explains why these reversals are often faster and more powerfull than the price movement with the trend. Learning to see them, is a whole other thing though. I would not even begin to know how to teach it.

I am talking number of trades. I usually count out the last 10. Every once and a while I count back the last 100. I win 70 to 80% of the time, if I am on my game. However, if I am not, sometimes I slip down to 60, or 65% for a while. There are times, like if I am under some sort of stress or pressure, where I drop to 50% or below. In those cases I have to recognize I am suffering some sort of psychological issue that is clouding my mental clarity, so I stop trading. It's times like that where keeping my wins larger than my losses protects my account. If I catch a good trend, I can hit 100% wins for the whole trend though. It all depends on how kind the market God's are to me.

Well, this is a tough post to reply to. In the course I was going to sell, I layed out a 2 year training program, before you even think about trading real money, so there is no real answer that can be given in a quick reply to a post online. That said, the absolute most productive thing i ever learned was from an old trader at the Merc, when i took some charting courses there back in the mid 90's. He had stopped in at the beginning of the break to check in on the teacher. As we were leaving he was greeting everyone as they left the classroom for go find snacks, or water, or whatever. For some reason he and I, out of the entire class, struck up a conversation. In that, he told me that the secret was in the relationship between the bollinger bands, and the 3 main moving averages. He said this with a look on his face like he had just given me the secrets to the universe, and was sure it went right over my head. It took me years of study, and forward testing (Not back testing. The live constantly fluctuating nature makes back testing useless in this case) to figure it out. That short conversation was the prime, pivotal point that brought me from the realm of failure, to developing a solid, consistently successful system. I have 8 main entry setups, both with, and counter to the trend, as well as a bunch of exit rules and reasons not to trade in the first place, These are based off of how the price bar, the moving averages and the bollinger bands relate to each other. To best help you, I would suggest that you start watching the markets with just those indicators, in real time, so you can watch how they all relate to each other as time and action unfolds. Because the price movement bends both the bollinger bands, and the moving averages back testing will not work. You will see a ton of setups in back testing, that you just can't see moving forward. You have to do your study moving forward, and watch it all unfold in real time to see the ones you would actually be able to catch for real.

Yes, I can agree on this. What I do, is have key signals that tell me to get out. For example, one thing I do a lot is look for divergence between the 4 bar moving average, and the outer bollinger band. If I see that, I exit. Since I am only in to scalp small amounts anyway, this often ends my trade, and I don't care if it takes off again after the correction is over. I may, or may not get back in. My average trade, both in sim, and real life is $80 to $90. That is all my wins and losses added up, and divided by the number of trades being counted. Since this is the case, I often exit as soon as I surpass that window either way, and call it a day. I rarely make more than a couple hundred a contract. It seems the more I go for, the more often I lose.

Yes, I can agree with that. Although accepting the risk, is different than allowing a mindset where you accept losses.

The biggest issue for me is psychology. If I am under any pressure at all, I start to get tunnel vision, and miss all my warning signs that tell me not to trade. This leads to losses. I have a rule though. If I lose more than 70% of my trades, I quit trading for a week or so. That seems to really help me keep my game on.

My answer, is $498.70 Well, sort of. I wrote a course on my method, and was going to sell it for that, but I had issues with my marketing team and the course never saw the light of day. I did do some sample test marketing, and the response I got was pretty disheartening to say the least. The most common response was I was some sort of scam artist looking to fleece beginners of their money. I have to say I was shocked, and quite dismayed by that type of feed back; so much so, that I have decided I am not willing to ever share what I do with anyone. On the subject of whether or not this is teachable, I believe the Turtle experiment proved it was. However, if you look at how they did it, they had a process of elimination. Those who could not follow their rules, or did not show an aptitude, were eliminated from the program. What I got out of that is that, Yes, trading can be taught. However, only to people who have a certain *It Factor* in the first place. I really feel that only a small percentage of the population can do this stuff successfully. I really do feel that we are 1% of the population. Everyone else is doomed to blow out their accounts before they start. Given that, I could mentor, or sell courses to plenty of people, who just don't have what it takes to succeed in Futures. However, I really don't want to be blamed when they blow out their accounts, and accuse me of ripping them off because they just don't have the talent to do this, no matter what system they follow.

Everyone takes losses. But my mindset is not to just accept them. I fight to prevent them, or minimize them as much as I can. The market has to force a loss on me. I am not going to just let them happen. This is a mindset I am talking about here. If you have a mindset where taking a loss is acceptable, then you are going to take losses, because you are complacent. If you have a mindset where losses are unacceptable, you will do everything you can to avoid them. This mindset will have you exiting before a turning market becomes a loss, and exiting as quickly as possible if you are experiencing one. This helps keep your account from being chewed up. Preventing losses, and having more reasons NOT to trade, than to trade is more important that how much you make on winning trades. You can make more than you lose as much as you want, but if you allow too many losing streaks, with the idea that that one big one will more than make up for it, you will be drained before you ever get to it. So for me, my first goal is to do everything I can to not lose.

I have found that NOT accepting losses works better for me. I have a bunch of signs that trades are turning bad, and I prefer to get out right away. I often exit with a small profit, rather than accept a loss. I am of the belief that if you hit your stop loss, you did something wrong. I have 8 set ups for entries, but over a dozen "Anti" set ups that either get me out of the market, or prevent me from getting in in the first place. Willingness to accept losses, is how you get your account chewed up.

Very interesting advise.

I actually disagree with this. My favorites are a combination of Bollinger bands and Moving averages(3 main ones). I most definitely have entrance and exit signals from them. That said, I do also use them for confirmations as well. It really depends on the set up I am using at the moment. A break out of a 1,2,3 for example, would be a confirmation. A Spear Point, on the other hand, is the signal.

You have to learn to see the waves before they are complete. Then you have to pick the ones that are likely to be big enough for a decent profit to be extracted. Whatever time frame gives you that, is the one you want. I don't choose, and use various time frames from the 3 minute, all the way up to the weekly.

Well, the daily chart does have extra significance, due to the stop, or break from trading that creates clearly defined sessions. However, where the bar opens on the intra day charts matters as well. Many times I have watched a market on the 10 minutes chart, and it has a fully formed bar, where the price just sits there untill the open of the next bar. Then it starts jumping around and moving again, only to stall about 8 minutes in and pause till the new bar opens before movement occurs once more. I have seen this so often over the years that I have concluded that I am not the only one trading like this. it has to be wide spread amongst the large professional market movers.

Paragraphs man, paragraphs!! Other than that, you are spot on!

Well, the smallest size wave would be up to you. Although I follow the waves on the 3 minute, 10 and 30 minute chart, I really use them to time entries on large waves I see on the daily charts. Most of the time, it's just to make sure the current, smaller wave, is going the same way when I jump in. It's an effort to minimize draw down time that works really well for me. Sometimes, especially in choppier markets, I zoom down to the 60 minute, or even 30 minute, and use the 3 an 10 minute for my timing. So, it's not about the size of the smallest wave, it's about knowing which one is the best to try and ride. That is something only experience can tell you. Another way to answer your question would be to look at the potential wave ion question, and try and calculate if it will last a few bars. If so will you clear commissions with a profit? A super small 1 tick wave will almost never be big enough to clear your commissions. The 10 minute on the other hand, very often is. The 3 minute is "Ify" at best, short of a real power move. That is why I only use them as instruments of timing.

You sound way to emotional for Futures trading. In my experience, everything matters. The high and low matter, the close matters, and the OPEN even matters. Psychologically, where the bar closes DOES matter to the mass of technical traders. It is a sign of confirmation, at the very least. It does not matter what you believe, this is the truth. As for the time frame, it does not matter. Since, with each different time frame, you are surfing a different sized wave, the close on a 1 minute time frame is just as critical for the wave there, as the same close on a daily chart and the larger wave you surf on it. If your account if big enough, and you can afford the draw downs, it even matters on the weekly and monthly charts.

Which is precisely why I don't come here often.

I am on other trading forums as well. Here, for some reason, there is a very high degree of 'Tearing others down'. It reminds me of certain martial arts forums that are devoted to exposing frauds in the martial arts. It becomes a culture of attack and snickering at others. I don't approve of the whole 'Cut others down to boost yourself' mentality. It just creates a hyena/jackle environment, that is really not very productive.