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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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10:42 Seems like finally someone got interested in this above 90.Not sure it will last. Given where we are. Focus was not high today. Will post analysis later, is a holiday here and I have to go to the park.
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I start on Monday. Lets see how May goes.
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10:28 Still in the same mess. And within the boundaries of the opening range 10:36 Attempt to BO we either go above 90 or we fall back inside the TR.
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Ok, didn't know that. I realized that as most chat members just stopped posting. Sorry.
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9:59 Seems like the same drill from the last two days. the mean is at 79, they tried down and couldn't find any counterparts below PML and then tried up and couldn't find any buyers above PMH.. Now they seem to be struggling around 83, but this just seems like chop to me. 10:03 LLs and LHs, this is a trend, not that it is tradable, but it is a trend nonetheless. 10:09 Still no buyers above 88, and the SL was pierced. Two choices here, If the manage to rally to 87 take a long ignoring 88 or wait for 88 to be take out. Lets see. 10:12 88 held 10:15 Looks like sellers finally realized they were not gonna get better bids and just decided to dump their contracts, lets see if there is still any relevant demand at the mean 10:16 No demand and looks like the last ones in the boat are dumping their contracts. Now, will this have enough strength to beat the gravity of 79?
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This is the journal where I will post my prep-work and my after market analysis. Is called SLAAMT because it is based in that and it is called ZEN because what I believe I lack the most is patience. Given that chat is gone, and that I enjoy writing what I am thinking during the day, I will write here whatever I think is important when I am in the market.
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9:24 Seems like we formed a TR between 78-80. BTW, is there a way to move my journal to the W forum, is not like it has an audience where it is.:haha: I don't have moderator privileges outside this forum. However, if you want to open up a journal here, I can move your "trading posts" from here to there. I'd like to keep this thread as brief as possible. I'm sort of done with thousand-post threads. Thank you. I have already opened my journal. Will only post daily analysis here then. It would be best if you were to post that in your journal. Otherwise we end up with another thousand-post thread that nobody reads.
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Prep-work We are still inside the TC we were yesterday. Seems, as Db mentioned we are on our way to 90. ON traders couldn't find trades above 85 nor 73 This thread has been moved to SLAMTZEN in the Wyckoff Forum. In case anyone cares
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Thank you, I am trying to trade less and less as well.
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Hey Dave, whoa!! Wolfhound is much cooler . Great to have you here.
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Not much more exciting than the first opening :haha:
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Still around? I guess this is a second opening, lets see what happens. We have just bounced off PDH.
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Thank you, will take it into account for the future.
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Will be back by the FOMC, to see if there is something to do then.
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So it was lack of patience my mistake today, Db stated that it was better to wait for a test of the extremes but somehow I resist to sit on my hands all morning and get creative. If it wasn't for scratching and the fact that I can restrain myself from making stupidities better than before It could have been a messy day. Things to recall and to take into consideration was that I could keep my cool and focus all morning, no matter how boring it was. I guess my regret was not taking that long of the bounce of 39, but then I think It would have reinforce a bad habit, so is a give and take. And always remember, better days (trend days) will come and will make it up for you.
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Something to remember: "RULE #3: If you've been folding a lot, for a long time in the game, and you're starting to think that maybe it's time you got in and played a few hands again – that's not a good enough reason. Keep folding."
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Against your best advise :doh: , (I am so ashamed :crap: ). I actually took a couple of shots. 2 BE and one loss. 1st one was a RET in the trend that formed, but after hitting the other extreme of the mean reverting area (that is how I decided to call it, but if it has another name please let me know) 2nd one was a REV off the mean at 50, my thinking was, they don't want it above the mean, then why not short. It ended up being a SCR. 3rd Given what happened at 2, I just marked the entry point and decided to watch until they proved they wanted to go out of the range. 4th Some buyers showed up above the OR so I decided I wanted to join also, but, they rapidly gave up and so did I. If one is trading mean reversion, there was only one trade, if one doesn't mind trading toward the mean. Given that price had stretched 10pts away from the mean to the upside, one could expect it to do the same thing to the downside. One could then go long at the higher low. This would be exited around 62.
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10:20 This is a powerful gravity mean. :haha: That sideways movement at 1010 is telling. I guess is better to go back after 1:50
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So, it is mean reverting... Yes, traders are stretching the rubber band 9pts either side of the mean at 49/50.
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Good advice , as always.
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Ok thanks, I am trying to understand the behavior behind the rapid fall after the failure to break the premarket high. So, not thinking in terms of fear but of "acute business sense" it just made no sense to keep holding after buyers failed to pay above the PMH, and the right thing to do was to dump the contracts and take a short. If you were to look at a tick chart, I suspect you'd see a lot of gapping. Even though price movement is continuous, it need not be contiguous. Thanks
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I am trying to understand this morning in the context of fear, this is the best I can come up with so far. Sort of trying to see what "they" fear, so I can use it objectively during RT trading. Any comments will be highly appreciated. I doubt that fear enters into it at all, except perhaps in the case of the itty-bitty retail trader who has no plan and doesn't know what's going on. Everybody else is just looking for trades. They don't care where they find them, up, down, whatever. Makes no difference to them. Not much different than a migrant farm worker. They'll let you know when they've found them. If you're paying attention, you can have some too.
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I would say that the great mistake of the day was not taking the REV off 560, buyers tried to find followers above the PML and failed, this also meant that the traders who where looking an exit above the hinge got trapped. The strong downwave is the view of the heard rushing for the exits.
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Forwardtesting SLA 042914
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What else can I say, thank you Db, SLAAMTZEN, saved my day.