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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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Adding lines and 50% (crutches) Things to consider: Above price 530 550 570 590 Below price: 500 480 470 435 Where are we? In a downtrend as illustrated tby the down TC, if we reach the bottom it would be around 480 by then coinciding with the level where price was rejected on the 28th of April. Within the context of the downtrend, traders have consolidated around 530 for an hour and 15 minutes before the open they are attempting a break to the downside. Note also that you have a hinge from 1000 to 1500 yesterday with an apex of 18. Yes, thanks, just where we stopped.
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Lineless prepwork After a partial recovery towards the 550 eq area buyers considered that the market was too expensive and prices started falling below 48. around 530 there was a new spurt of demand but it was short lived and buyers gave up even earlier around 545. This led to some consolidation between 540 and 544 from where we just exited (8:00). The mean of all of this (600-500) is around 50 and we are currently below it after a failure to get there, therefore weakness is the prevalent force at the time of the post. If sellers conclude that these price levels are too expensive they will dump more contracts on the market, the thing to see is if the buyers who considered 500 a bargain are gonna still be thinking the same after failing to find trades above 48. I can't stand the suspense.
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Sorry, I was not clear about the hinge, i was refering to a hinge in the hourly from days ago that i missed in prepwork but that eminiman posted: http://cdn3.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/131/38178d1399466739-putting-all-together-nq-06-14-15-min-5_7_2014.jpg
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After a round of replay I ended up starting a new research, this time into turning points. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/18384-dynamics-fear-3.html#post192389
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I place this new initiative here, because I believe fear has something to do with the definition of turning points, but I could be wrong (they could be just tired of not finding counter parties and decided to close and reverse). Both. You're looking at both a considered and deliberate move and the fear of those who are caught by it and (a) don't understand what's going on and (b) don't know how to handle it. Now, given than a lot of opportunities come from taking REV entries, and that I am not 100% comfortable taking them just yet I will devote the next couple of weeks analyzing the turning points that occur during the day, in order to observe and share what I see, in the hope that someone can also collaborate in case there is something obvious I am missing (like today hinge at 30 ) Given that there are multiple trends and micro trends and macro trends in the market I will focus on those turning points that give life to continuous waves of 10 or more points, viewing the market from the perspective of the 1 min chart. Although the analysis is performed at the nano level of 5 ticks. This is a work in progress so all comments are welcome, for starters I don't know if i am compiling the necessary stats or even if this exercise is the way to go. Anyway, I plan to post the regular amount of 50, starting today with 8. I will see how to add context to the stats, but for now this is all I can come up with for the day. TURNINGPOINTANALYSIS-LARGE.pdf
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Thank you I will definitely do that starting tomorrow.
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Hey, how is research going? Any news from the R&D world?
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Not at all,thanks for posting. Interesting observations, I still need to work more on my ability to spot and act upon DTDB. It's not so much a matter of TDTDB as it is context. The NQ has been falling down the stairs in a very measured way since 3600, stopping at each old eq level on the way. There's no reason to assume that this will not continue. If 3500 is an interim bottom or even a rallying level, it has so far been relatively easy. Once everyone sees, however, what the NQ has been doing and how it's been doing it (I'm not holding my breath), it may not be so easy going forward without capitulation. On the other hand, seeing how poorly the NDX10 are doing, it may be easier than expected. Those who can't ditch the lines ought at least to do two preps, one with and one without.
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Market review 050714 This is what I did today, at the open, as suggested by Db waited for confirmation of where they were finding trades, at first they tried down with no luck, stopping the decline at 50 where buyers rapidly rejected selling and prices jumped. This, at first made me think long at the RET but that never happened, (buyers were not interested above 61). I realized today that I am have not tested the bracketing in this kind of scenario and it is totally necessary. 1. After prices broke 50 my first mission was to wait for a RET to join the party, but my first attempt rapidly failed and was scratched. Then was what I think the biggest mistake of the day, buyers tried to find a following above 50, a level that by now had proven to be important, but they were rapidly rejected, but I guess I was thinking in lines and line breaks and did not realize the other information that was in front of me. This also has to do with bracketing and the possibility of contemplating both directions. By now, I am able to identify various layers of fear that looked as if they were gone in sim, but that start to pop out everywhere in live trading, I expect them to go away as I gain confidence in my execution. 2. After missing another RET at 9:55 I decided to man up and take the next one. It worked just fine. This was finally exited after reaching 500 and breaking the DL. Here the mistake was to get too eager to exit as my plan calls for waiting for a HL, that came a couple of minutes later and it would have taken me out at the same place, but it could just as well keep on falling. I will replay the day and post more in depth analysis later in the afternoon.
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If we keep on falling: 80 70 35
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Well, seems like 500 was were sellers finally decided that it was way too cheap. But buyers did not want it above 20, so there was a duel, who will control the market buyers or sellers? (hence the hinge), buyers gave it a first try and failed to make a HH, then sellers tried, got a little bit of demand to provide to at the apex and now is the real test, will they make it below 06 or will they just give up and price will go into dullness.
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Thank you again for all your help. Will review and post my analysis and my to do and not to do for tomorrow.
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Yes indeed, although I did not join the action until 30
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At the outermost SL.
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Yes, thanks, missed the entry because of my "conclusion" Work toward hypotheses, not conclusions. And we begin falling again after testing the SL. This is observable fact, not a conclusion. One could hypothesize, however, regarding the extent of this move down. And as we approach 500, there are at least three choices: tighten the SL and exit on a break, exit if and when we hit 500, or do nothing and see if price decides to cascade downward. This decision is more likely to be made emotionlessly if it's made before it has to be acted on. Yep, great stuff, that last parragraph, I ended up thigthening the line and closing between 5 and 8. Now I am way too happy to trade , and I think I will just watch. I exited at 500. 60pts is plenty, given the hour. And the trade can always be re-entered. I hope that the lurkers have a better understanding of how this works now. For later, or tomorrow, look at the next levels most likely to be of interest.
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9:49 Seems like there are no more sellers below 38 Let the ret decide that for you. That's what it's for. 9:50 Just a poke at the OR bottom before the fall. And here we are at 30. It's not magic; it's just a matter of understanding AMT. Where is the next eq level? 500
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9:34, ran out of sellers at 48 9:38 Ran out of buyers at 61 Now find the halfway point between the OL and the OH. How price reacts to that will give you some idea whether you're headed higher or not. FWIW, it appears to me that traders are testing each of these old eq levels in sequence. If so, the next will be 30.
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So, after "leaving the nest" at 50, they looked for buyers but ran out of them at 66 now they seem to be looking for sellers but seems like they are also scarce below 53.
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9:20 At 50% of the upmove from 42. Focus on 50. If traders hover around this level, it'll be the same sort of day as yesterday.
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Price will let you now when it stops where it stops. By the way, thanks for pointing out the hinge at 30, missed it in my prep.
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So, yesterday ended up being a sell and hold day :haha: (Sell at 5:00 cover at 20:00). Now for those who trade after the open like I do, that is not of much use. . But what is important from yesterday movement is the fact that it proved that 70 is still important here (72 to be exact in this case. We stopped the drop around 43--48 area (50%s) (another important point from last week and we are currently rising towards 70 again. So it means that we are now in a TR between 540 and 604 with a mean at 72/73. There's no TR but rather a series of equilibrium levels, one of which is/was 50. The message to take away from this is not to calculate anything but to look at what traders are doing. They spent 14hrs huddled around the equilibrium level from last week, then at least some decided to venture upward. This got only as far as 66. Don't concern yourself with what's going on outside this arena. Focus on what traders are doing after having left the nest. Once they decide on a direction, then you can look for means and ranges and trends. In the daily we seem to have formed some sort of hinge. The conditions seem very rangy from any perspective. Regarding the immediate trend sellers ran out of buyers at 66, didn't quite make it to 70 before the open but there is nothing that says so far that they wont try again before reaching 50% of the up move at 54. Things to do today: Once a trade is in profit LEAVE IT ALONE. I have already set attached orders, so that I wont have to bother to run around the chart to place the exit orders. It will be done automatically. Focus, scratch and reenter according to plan. If they cant make a HH or a LL 5 minutes after the open better wait for a BO before committing money. especially if the trade is started around the mean.
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Thanks, will include that in the prepwork tomorrow.
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Hehe, the market dont screw you but you can surely screw yourself. So I got screwed by my own stupidity today. Lets just leave stupidity in bed tomorrow and wake up smarter. . Regarding position size, that is not an issue, I dont trade 3 contracts because of size, but because of exit flexibility, some times I want to take profits on a parabolic move, but not on the whole position so I take profits on the first contract. The other two are for break of Last Swing and Line break. It could be 3 or 6 or 9, any multiple of 3 will do. Regarding your difficulties with entry, just take them, get a clear way to scratch and take all trades that match your setup, I see you want to minimize info risk, but that will always cost you more if you miss a trade than if you take one an scratch it. So, lets do something, take the next 50 trades that come in your way, dont think twice, just take them (is demo money anyway), see how you manage them after the entry and add that into your records, lets talk back 50 trades later and let me know what you found.
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Thank you, I guess I saw today open just like yesterday open and tried to trade accordingly, but reviewing, yesterday there was a HH that occurred before the entry on the RET against the DL, today there was not such thing. (Chart below) Regarding 5, yes I moved in too fast, I should have waited for the RET that never came. Thank you for your comments. While the macro is important, you're not moving past it, and the macro isn't going to provide much guidance at the opening bell unless you just happen to be up against an extreme of some sort. You must locate those levels beyond which traders can't find trades. Without that, you have only guesses and feelings to rely on. This morning, traders couldn't get past 93 (0730-0815). To the downside, they couldn't get past 84 (0845). Therefore, all you have to do is calculate the midpoint (87-88, Again) and see how traders trade around these levels. If you're not doing this, then you're just asking to be manipulated. You can't clear muddy water by stirring it.
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I guess the plan has to deal with operational mistakes that throw me off balance. Today I made an stupid order entry mistake, in demo these were not such a big deal, but in real life you just cant take them away. So I had two choices, go away and cry for being so stupid or just keep on trading and pay more attention to what I am doing. I managed to choose the latter, but I felt pretty bad the rest of the morning, So having said that, here is my day. 1. At the open, buyers gave up at 92, so the trend that started around 5:00 AM today was still holding just fine. I took the next RET. This one was an early SCR, so it was a mistake that cost me at least 2 points. It is the same mistake as yesterday, damn. I need to do this stuff right. 2. This is the Reentry of trade 1 but it got SCR pretty fast. 3. SL was gone we were at 82 and we had a RET, so long it was, but it was a SCR as well, by now I knew they didn't want to go anywhere, but I thought I had a Hinge, marked with yellow lines. 4. Being in a hinge meant that I could try to short the test of the apex and that is what 4 is all about, but just after the entry price went rapidly against me and I got screwed. I will have to think about how to deal with this VREVs after my entry as they make a lot of noise in the P&L when they show up. 5. Having failed on the downside my read was that this was a BO from the hinge and entered on what I considered the RET, but it was rapidly rejected, this wouldn't have been troublesome if I had done things the right way, but I just went nuts trying to close the trade with the wrong command, I thought this kind of thing couldn't happen to me anymore but there you go. I am gonna work on attached orders so that I don't end up with this trouble again. 6.Realizing I was in a TR and that given that I was not gonna get good entries, I just waited for the BO and the RET, I exited the 1st contract too soon. After this I just closed the trade at the first sing of strength after 11:00, have a lot of reviewing work to do. Tomorrow task, once the trade is going your way, LEAVE IT ALONE!!!! You're trying to trade the midpoint again. The first two trades are fine. But after those, you have a range, and the midpoint of the range is 86. As traders trade around this level, price forms a hinge, and the midpoint of the next swing high and the next swing low is again 86, so your 3rd and 4th trades should not have been made. As for the 5th, that's the first exit from the hinge and there's no retracement, so that's up to you, though the first exit from the hinge nearly always fails. That this was a balancing day became clear by 1000, so there wasn't much to do except wait.