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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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Well, until I shake my fear off I wont be able to make any progress, today an early close was my mistake, there was not break of LSL until after 10:30, so I should have kept part of my long all the way to 94.25 instead I closed all my trades around 86 fearing a VREV. Trades of the day: 1. After the open sellers were unable to trade below 70, given the trend I interpreted this as a RET and took the entry but it was short lived and SCR as sellers rapidly moved against me, I thought I could have SCR at BE, but for now lets leave it like that. Sellers tried again, but failed at 69, the same one from PM BTW . THere buyers rapidly came in the market allowing for a REV (did not take it and that was the trade of the day). 3. 1st RET after the REV, took it, went all the way up and got me in a comfortable position. But here is where my mistakes piled up, what can I say, another mistake to add to the chain of mistakes of my first live month. How can I fix this, pretty easy, FOLLOWING THE DAMN RULES. 4. After a congestion I tried to rejoin the party, but it was short lived and SCR at BE. 5. After missing the hinge entry, which I did not take, because I am not really that familiar and comfortable around them, the stride of the trend was finally broken, and buyers were unable to get better prices so I decided to short, but this short did not go anywhere. and had to be scratched. that It can bee seen that the trade that worked, was closed too early, that amounts to a loss of 8,75 times the number or open contracts, that here would be 3. If by the last you mean the long at 79-80, it wasn't closed too early. It broke the DL and dropped two points. That's sufficient reason to exit and look either for a short ret or a DTDB. Here you get a DTDB, but it doesn't go anywhere, so there are no further trades. Thanks
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Seems like you are on the money, but now those damn fool sellers got scared and stopped pushing at 94. Lets see where this congestion ends up going.
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Something I found. Might be of use. Do you see the hinge beg at 1000? Yes, but missed the entry, I need to do more work on these hinges, I am still doubtful, I marked the entry at 93 but did not take it. Not saying anything should be done about it. But it illustrates a change in behavior. Contrast the movement from 0944 thru 0947 with the movement during the half hour thereafter. Traders are telling you there's something different about 90. You don't need to draw lines to see that. What if anything you do about it is another issue. Ditto with the change in behavior when it hits 98. Little but sideways movement since. Try to avoid reading anything into price movement other than the obvious, which is essentially what the SLA is all about.
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Poke above 70 just before the open.
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In a micro view, traders seem to be unable to find counterparties above 70 and below 64. As for plans for the day: Dont trade at the mean, if they cant find direction at the opening you know they will probably wander around the mean and entries will be hard so why bother. Thursday and friday were busy afternoons for me so I could not get far in my turning points exercise, I will add some more observations today.
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Overnite traders settled around 55, just a couple of hours ago they ventured to the upside and so far have been unable to get above 70. Given the upside exploration the trend is currently upwards, but we have to take into consideration that we are still inside a huge hinge from the daily with lots of eq zones on the way we have to deal with. If an uptrend it is then we will have to deal with : 70 80 90 04 If selling starts to increase to the point of overwhelming buying, then on the downside there are some trades to clear on: 55 30 area 20 500 I suggest you play it as it lays rather than concern yourself with so many levels. Price broke out of its earlier range at 58. It rose to 69. If one had gone long, he'd be out when the DL was broken or when price dropped out of the sideways movement thereafter. There was no short ret in this dropout. So he waits. Now price is trying to break out of this through 70. If it does, just trade it normally. Traders will tell you where the limits and the congestions are by how they trade. Thanks, yes as I was writing the levels I assumed you were gonna tell me something like this, I just marked those areas that seem to have been visited by traders often, but given the whole environment we are in they seem to pop up every 10 points, turning them useless for the open. I will watch traders and let them tell me where they cant find anymore trades. These islands have been criss-crossed so many times the past couple of weeks that they may no longer be pertinent. Traders develop a been-there-done-that attitude. You may benefit by backing off a bit and focusing on the bigger picture, such as this giant hinge, and the upper limit of the March TC. Ok, I will do that.
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Hehehe, I am not sure I can flip the switch just yet, but lets just take it one step at the time, follow the rules, keep on self improving and if we are fortunate, things will end up making sense enough to be able to take emotion away on the way. I hope you have a great trading week.
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I have been reading the nature of risk, great book. Very pertinent for me this week, I must eliminate hesitation and learn to sit tight. Thanks again for this excellent recomendation.
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Duly noted and acted upon.
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Stupidity, and lack of attention at the time, will not happen again.
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What did you do right, what did you do wrong, how would you improve your trading for next week?
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This is something I have printed and posted in my wall, today is living proof of that: These are the trades for the day: 1. After the open, they decided they wanted to go down, as they reached for buyers were rejected at 34 forming a LH, this was the trigger to enter, it had a stronger than expected pullback that got me SCR and there I was gonna reenter , but.... I didnt, something regarding the way I have my order configured in my platform and something I will address by monday. After this trade I started to feel uneasy, anxious, angry, I think Is a word that describes what I was feeling, and that anger just got worse as I saw price cascade without looking back. I tried to convince myself i could keep my cool, but the gut feeling was still there. 2. I managed to take the next RET, but it did not go anywhere hence got scratched. 3. As buyers rapidly absorbed all that was available even above the LSH at 18.50 and rapidly took advantage of the "bargains at 15.50" to load up on more I decided to join them, knowing that by now this could easily turn into a TR of sorts hence the management of the trade was to scratch as fast as the movement failed. 4. And here is where anxiety blurred my mind, by now I already had 3 trades that did not go perform as expected and I was looking for "the trade" that would change my morning" (against the better advice of the zen rules (keep on folding)) I took a lame trade against the mean at 22 and I got hit with a 2 point SCR. 5. After Breaking out of the opening range waited for a RET and jumped into what I expected to become a trend but didn't, in this case was the reentry that got me into trouble, as I hesitated to exit fast and the market went against me 2 full points once again. 6. DL broken and prices were refusing to keep on rising, stubbornness, stupidity, there is really no much of a reason to take this long other than betting and hope, I really feel ashamed of this last one. There is no 7, just because I have reached my daily drawdown limit. Things I cant screw up next week. 1. IF A TRADE IS NOT SCRATCHED IS BECAUSE IS A GOOD ONE, LET IT GO ON ITS WAY, DONT TOUCH IT, DONT PARTIALLY CLOSE IT, DONT DO ANYTHING UNLESS YOUR PLAN TELLS YOU TO, IS PRETTY EASY, IT IS WRITTEN ALL OVER YOUR JOURNAL AND EVERYONE ELSES, JUST DO IT!!!! 2. IF AN OPERATIONAL ERROR OCCURS, RECORD IT, LOOK FOR WAYS TO IMPROVE IT AND EAT THE "LOST OPPORTUNITY" DONT DWELL ON IT, DONT COUNT YOUR UNREALIZED PROFITS, DONT GET ANGRY, IF IT HAPPENS, AND YOU KNOW WHEN IT HAPPENS BY HOW YOU FEEL, JUST TURN OFF THE SCREEN GO TAKE A 10 MINUTE WALK, IF BY THE TIME YOU COME BACK THERE IS STILL SOMETHING WORTHY OF TRADING GO AHEAD AND TRADE IF NOT, BE THANKFUL YOU DID NOT REACH YOUR DAILY LOSS LIMIT LIKE TODAY Why are you trading around the mean?
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Messed up today, I am out of focus, I have been after missing a reentry at the open, just felt the anxiety within me, I pushed it and it didn't work. Fortunately the plan calls for a daily loss limit that can only be achieved by being out of sync with price and it was hit. So I am done trading for the day, will come back later to journal, I don't feel in the mood at the time. If one were to apply the SLA mechanically, there were at least a half-dozen stopouts during the first 45m. At some point, one has to focus on what traders are doing. Otherwise, it's just one stopout after another. The SLA guards against that unless one is unreasonably stubborn. Thanks, I was actually not even tracing lines today, the problem today, as every other day of the week was me. I took a short after the open, got scratched and when tried to get back in I messed up with the platform order entry and missed the trade, it was that that made me lose focus and start getting in where I should have not. I will go deeper into this later in the afternoon, as this cannot happen again. BTW I appreciate a lot this follow up, thank you again. Probably the same short I took. And then I tried a long half an hour later, which also got stopped out, and didn't want to trade around the mean, so I did nothing until the lower high at 1030. We'll see.
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My bad, i meant 1:10 or around, the second short of the afternoon to be precise. Thanks for the reply. The demand line is broken and the short is taken at the first retracement thereafter. Hehehe, :doh:
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Levels Above us: 36 50 80 90 Below us: 18 500 80
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Lineless prepwork Yesterday was a failed attempt to halt a decline towards 480, after sellers defined that it was enough at 523 buyers just were able to get prices to 538 where they spent the rest of the night. From 3:00 AM they tried to look for sellers and so far they had been successful making a new low at 20. At the moment of the post, seems like buyers are interested above 20 again but buyer´s interest is still needed above 32 in order to make a difference. Seems like the current mean is 38. Not quite. If you look at the halfway level of Wednesday's downmove, you'll find 33. This is the level around which traders have been congregating ever since Wed evening. As I started adding lines, 38 started to bring some doubt, but I was gonna go with it given that it was the price where sellers gave up PM yest and buyers gave up yest evening. That is coincident with the halfway of the rise from 497 to 580. Now as I am supposed to look for the places where most trades are taking place, then 36 is more accurate, thanks. 9:03 And 36 it was Actually it should be 33. I've corrected it. Thanks
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Great trading. I have a couple of questions Actually it's just following the rules, though double bottoms and double tops generally trump everything else IF they occur against something. In this case, 18 was pre-determined to be a level to watch. Reversals rarely offer retracements. The supply line there is broken after price bounces off 18 the first time. Therefore one looks for the first long opportunity. This occurs when price tests 18 again, which is also a higher low, though marginally. If one doesn't take it, most likely he has a bias that's preventing him from seeing what's in front of him. The fact that you waited for the break of LSL before shorting was because you were still holding the long, or there was something else that told you that shorting above 70 was too early.? AMT said that shorting before 80 was too early. Nonetheless, the short was taken. That it was scratched immediately carried its own message. Given the number of points made by that time, giving price a little extra leeway was not a concern. I guess i would have gone long at 1:00 any reason not to? Depends on how you draw your line. In any event, it would have been scratched immediately. I dont understand the short around 10:10, failure to get higher prices at 50%? There is no short at 1010. First short is around 1050.
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Dont trade if you can be stung.... I guess that wasn't in anyone else´s trading plan either
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Hehehe, I am using sierra for live trading and did not have a clue about how to change the size of the lower panel, found out today by mistake. Glad it helps.
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Just something I wanted to point out. Yes, which is why we spent all nite at that level. And if you note how price behaved as it reached and worked it way through, creating the first ret at that level, that gave you permission to stay in the trade.
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Ok, fear kicked in again, and ended up closing 2/3rds of the position way too early. Still did not get the REV (will talk about it later in the turning points file) but managed to get in at the first RET, then after a struggly initial rise I closed up the first contract at the first sign of weakness, and the second after the break of the DL, Managed to hold myself and allow the last contract a change on the break of LSL and that only happened at 10:32. Lesson to be learned, once again (I might need therapy :crap: , for now will give a new read to the Zen thread.) once the trade is in the money SIT IN YOUR HANDS!!!. I suggest you re-examine what you mean by "sign of weakness". Sure, will do that. Hehehe, thinking about it it was my sing of weakness, my own fear the only thing that got me out at that first level, Well, things to learn and act upon tomorrow and next week.
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Seems like the 70 area was finally the end of this move, I missed the short, damn!!! :rofl: There isn't necessarily a short yet. Notice that price found support at the LSL. Thanks, I missed it intentionally, still need to put myself together after a good trade. Doesn't matter. It got scratched. Yep, thanks again.
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Nope, 70 is still a good buy, entering muddy waters though.
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At 70. Here we watch and see if buyers still think this is a bargain or not.
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Struggling with 550.