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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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My levels for Oil. If anyone is interested... Red lines: Higher time frames Purple lines: Current Time frame Thin lines: Midpoints
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My levels for today. It found R at the midpoint of the last downswing. Currently around the 60 level. If broken down 44 is my next level of S, if tested successfully R expected around 71-77.
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Tomerok, I think the link is wrong, it sends me to an expired website.
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My levels and what I see as Prices Reach Resistance at 45-47. If broken out, next level at 60 if not next level at 29.
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Interesting use for a LSL in a downtrend, I have always seen those levels as pyramiding opportunities, or entry levels in case the first BO or the first pullback was missed.
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Do you take into account the longer time frame trend in order to define how to exit. I mean, if you are in a downtrend in the long term should you give more breathing room to a short trade, as opposed as when you are shorting a reversal on a long term uptrend.
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I also think the first thing you have to do is to develop a trading plan, it takes time and is hard work, but whoever told you this was going to be easy was trying to rip you off your money. You have to be able to deal with the huge ammount of leverage you get in the futures market and with what that makes with your emotions, it is brutal for the newbee. Best of lucks, there are great resources here to build a trading strategy, I am currently following the Wyckoff forum, here en TL and I recomend it.
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For your timeframe I think that Euro would be your choice, although most of the indices and oil have decent moves during those hours despite relative lower volume. What i do to decide what gives the most bang for the buck is calculate the dollar atr for the 1 min timeframe (100 min atr) and multiply it for the dollars per tick. Usually oil comes up at 1st, gold 2nd. But i do it after 9 ny time. Now, it all depends on your trading strategy, which should be adequate for that timeframe.
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I have been trading with mirus for 2 years now, they are very efficient and don't bombard you with spam. Their commissions are also ery competitive.
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Nick, I recommend you follow the advice of Wyckoff about reading the book several times, is not an easy read for the uninitiated. As for other literature, I recommend DB´s book is a great resource, I don´t know if is as good if one has not understood Wyckoff book first, but it clarifies many things that I think are very complex in the original Wyckoff literature.
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Hi Quantum, I also trade oil and I am in the transition from inducators to price and volume. There are plenty of places in the wyckoff forum to interact, and although the discussion is mainly about NQ, the other participants also discuss other markets. You can post your day's s/r levels for next day in the trading in foresight thread. What timeframe do you trade? Best regards Nikorivera
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Ok, i just wanted to say that after many years and hundeds of dollars in books i have finally found a piece of literature full of aHa moments. I tottaly recomend Db's book, is a must read for anyone seriuosly interested in trading or investing. Ps. I am not getting a commision for this.
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Ok, here go my levels for CL for today. I don´t really understand how many levels are too many, any advise will be appreciated. I tried following NQ in real time along with CL, but I am really not up for the task yet, get confused too easily. That is why I am not posting more NQ charts.
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Although today market had the influence of the report, I think it shows clearly why planning your session with S/Rs is useful. I am posting the chart of the day´s trading with the levels posted this morning in the TIF thread. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/6274-trading-foresight-wyckoff-forum-61.html#post162461
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Although this thread is mainly about NQ, I would like to post my levels for CL, as can be seen it is making new lows in the intraday, and that has forced me to go back in time to july. The main problem I have here, is that in case of a downtrend continuation, as the levels are being defined in a 240 minute chart, they are far away from current price as to serve any useful purpose for tomorrow intraday trading. Any advise here would be appreciated. Regarding a reversal for tomorrow, these are the levels of S/R: Purple lines are the levels found on the 240 min chart (shown above), the blue lines are the current 15 min chart levels, and the dashed blue lines correspond to midpoints.
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Db, Do you use P&F charts to define targets intraday as W does in the course for his EOD analysis?
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2805 proved to be resistance, my first level of support was around 2791.5. Assuming one is trading just one contract is it prudent to exit at support, given what has happened in the last minutes? A possible trade is marked with a diamond for the entry, a square for the initial stop and a circle for the exit after reaching the first level of support in my analysis.
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I have plotted my levels for the NQ (Red lines are R and Green lines are S). Any comments will be appreciated. As for things to do, here are my 2 cents: I think we are still in the uptrend that started yesterday afternoon, at first I will watch what prices do as they approach the 2805 R level. In case it is penetrated, I will go in with the trend at the first RET opportunity. If it is tested and the buyers fail, I think there is room for a short after the test.
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Db, It has been a while since my last post. I had been re-reading the W course, reading the Dalton Markets in Profile book, and reshaping the way I see the markets, I think I am halfway on my deintoxication from mechanical trading and I am begining to understand the flow of prices in real time. I have been reading this 90 min trading tread, post by post (currently on page 22), So before I post something else i will first finish my homework of reading the full thread, but I just wanted to tank you again for all your efforts and advice, without which understanding W would have been far more difficult.
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Db, this S/R thing really clears one´s mind when trading, thanks for all your dedication and knowledge. I have been following the WTI spot, as it has been doing something similar to the Index, as you stated some weeks ago. Here is the chart, where it can also be seen how it has managed to exit the trading range and now is testing R (trading range support). Now, as discussed some weeks ago, the 77 S level is the one to watch in case R at 81 holds during the following days.
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Ok, Db, I will take it into account. I was just curious about the fact that a W type analysis on this chart, would have sound the alarms to those long or interested in being long by the end of april, the last two rallies were on decreasing volume, and the last two corrections had an increase in volume. But you are right, the fact of knowing what is going to happen does bias one´s mind.
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Following on DB´s advise, I am working on a period that some of you might remember, that is Aug 1999 to march 2000 on the Nasdaq (maybe those between 20 and 30 not as much). This is just before the collapse of the dot-com bubble. If you remember the news back then, by march the targets of the gurus were much higher and the experts of the new economy argumented that the markets paradigm had change, and the old rules did not aply to this new economy. http://www.thestreet.com/story/897915/1.html Preliminary, I think it was quite obvious from a W stand point that the last two weeks of march were indicative of something (I will elaborate more on that on my analysis) I have attached the chart in case someone else is interested in performing some W analysis too, I will post mine when it is ready.
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Db, are you referring to Oil?. In hindsigth, I see a zone of interest (Is this what you are referring to?) at 87(the midpoint from the last congestion at 90), when analysed with the volume profile information. See red line in the chart.
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Thanks tupapa, I have read that book a long time ago, and did not get as much from it, as I was focused on indicators and algorithms. I just got it back from the library, as I think this makes perfect sense.
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I think that I finally got your point DB, I guess the theoretical(if one can give it that name) discussion about market principles (and by that I mean W principles) is far more usefull for novice traders (I don´t know about advance traders as I do not know any personally) than guessing where oil or the ES or whatever other instrument, is going to be next Friday or by fall. Now regarding the subject of climaxes, and reviewing W definition: "* The phenomenon of the Selling Climax is caused by the panicky unloading of stocks (supply) by the public and other weak holders which is matched against buying (demand) of (l) experienced operators; (2) the large interests and sponsors of various stocks who now either see an excellent opportunity to replace at low prices the stocks they sold higher up, or wish to prevent further demoralization by giving the market support temporarily; and (3) short covering by the bears who sense a turn. Stocks thus become either temporarily or more lastingly lodged in strong hands. An abnormal increase in volume is one of the characteristic symptoms of a selling climax, since supply and demand must both expand sharply under these conditions. But the supply is now of poor, and the demand of good quality; and since the force of supply now will have been exhausted, a technical rally ensues. If buying on the break (i.e., during the Selling Climax) was principally for the purpose of supporting prices temporarily and checking a panic, or relieving a panicky situation, this support stock will be thrown back on the market at the first favorable opportunity, usually on the technical rebound which customarily follows a selling climax. This, and other selling on the rebound, may increase supply sufficiently to drive prices through the lows of the climax day and bring about a new decline, that is, a resumption of liquidation." Regarding the abnormality of volume (underline done by me) and from an historical perspective, the volume last Friday on Oil was high, but definitely not abnormal.