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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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Another quote, I think might be of help in this thread:
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Tomer, Have you posted your scoring methodology somewhere in TL? It seems interesting.
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Gringo, you are right. Thanks for the edit.
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Just in case it helps, i have read the whole course 3 times, I am a slow learner :crap:. I think that the whole book is of great aid, but one must study it, not only read it like a cosmo in a salon. And after reading the book, one should spend a good amount of time in this forum in order to get the between the lines insigth that Db provides. I also recomend buying dbs book.
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Its a mess trying to quote from a tablet, so i will do it the old fashioned way. From Dbs previous post: "Take care not to confuse "trend" with "trading range". They're not the same thing. S/R applies most directly to TRs. Trends don't have the same type of S/R; they often end climactically, though sometimes they just run out of steam. Whatever S&R they may run into along the way may have to do with previous TRs that are outside themselves. But the movement within a TR from one end to the other isn't really a trend; it's a roundtrip ticket from one end to the other. Only when price breaks out of one side or the other, for real, do you have the beginnings of a real trend." Db, this was my aha moment of the day, and i understood where my problem was. When trading with indicators, I use two MAs and an army of indicators to confirm my entries, this makes me enter usually in the middle or the end of the trend, giving me the posibility of just a few ticks of profit and very little time in the market. When formulating my entry setup some posts above I ended up falling in the same trap. I was trying to enter in the middle of the trend, but gringo's comments as well as yours made me realize that I was trying to turn a circle into a square. In W we need to focus on the best posible entries, that are: Rev: On trading ranges or at the end of trends as in DB or DTs Ret: after the BOs or at climaxes after the test. I will work more into this entries and will post my journal in the journal thread.
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I just found this interesting, and thought it might add value here:
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Bloc, This is why I started the entries thread. It is just the way I see things, I just can start thinking about how to manage if i have not defined where to enter, I guess this is not necesarily the best way to do it but i am already hardwired to think like that :crap:.
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Gringo, Thank you very much for all your comments and insights.
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I have read, and re read DBs post No 2, with the intention of giving some sort of order to my mind regarding what is written in this entries Thread. At least by me. The following are my interpretations, they are not set in stone and subject to modification, upon the result of the debate, that I hope it sparks. (If it does not, I would be very disappointed and ashamed ) As I said before, my interest here is to minimize my waste of time when doing all the homework required to learn to trade W Style, not the long hours of useful homework time, but the weeks of testing something that has no value to begin with. So here are my interpretations of Dbs post (DB, I hope I am not making a mess with what you provided in your post, If so.... I know you will let me know.). My interpretations are: • The best possible trades will then be found on the S/R levels, understanding S/R as the extremes and midpoints of the TRs identified using AMT or Cajas. (What about PDL, PDH and PDMidpoint?) • This would mean that any entry strategy that does not involve the S/R, will always be second best if not a downright loser. • So for setting an entry strategy, (this include selecting the pattern, doing the backtesting and the forwardtesting) it is necessary to first define S/R levels for any given market session one is going to use for testing purposes. Then I guess I started with the wrong foot, suggesting BOs as the subject of study. If W did not like them, then I will not either, at least for the time being. Regarding my previous interpretation about the importance of S/R on entries, this means that: The retracement could only be diligently tradable, if it occurs around an S/R level. If not one should not take that risk. With all that was written above, this is my to do list to define an entry on a trend then: 1.One has defined S/R 2.The trend is set (up or down) with an DL or a SL and a TL. 3.S/R is broken, prices advance and then start to decline, the RET is about to form and one should then set his or her entry stop (stop limit). A limit order would not be advisable as it would anticipate something that is not known, that is, the end of the RET, which could anyway, become a REV. 4.The place where one chooses to place the stop entry will depend on the result of his or her testing. (Previous bar high, n ticks above the low of the RET, round numbers, ETC.)
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And for those still following oil, here is the chart. The contract changed, so all the levels moved.
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Hello everyone: First of all, no abduction over here, so no need to worry.:haha: Second of all, here are my levels for today: 725 717 707 696 673 667 663 650 635 623 You may want to dial back the lines just a teensy bit Db .
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Tupapa, thank you for participating in the thread. I have quoted the entry description part of your post, and wrote some questions that come to my mind; Q: At which point you start defining the movement as a trend? Higher Highs and Higher Lows? Q: When you say strong you mean, strong volume or a wide movement in price will suffice? Q: What do you mean by struggle? Is it strong volume with no advance or even decline in price. Q:Why wait for the low of the previous bar. I mean, if trading in RT, and imagining one has a very low Time frame for execution (10 seconds or 10 ticks), don´t you think one could enter at a better price? Q: How do you take into account S/R levels. Would you enter a trade irrespective of these levels?
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This last chart, just in case someone wants to see how volume interacted with price during the session.
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I have removed the trades that were not happening near predefined S/R levels, according to the levels posted before the 17th trading session in the TIF Thread. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/6274-trading-foresight-wyckoff-forum-79.html#post163725 In this scenario only 13 of the original 31 trades would have been taken. entryevaluation2.xlsx
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Here is the first part of my homework, I am looking into ways of making the most of this exercise, so any suggestions would be appreciated. This is what I have done so far with the data: According to the initial strategy post, these are the entry conditions: I have done that at with the chart provided for the 17th of October, the trades were taken in market replay, stop entries are marked with a blue dot, limit entries are marked with a purple dot. Long entries are highlighted in green and Short entries are highlighted in red. The trade information is provided in the spreadsheet. Although impossible in real life, because of FIFO position closing. it was assumed that only the trades that went to touch the stop loss during the trading session (8:00 AM to 12:00 PM) where exited, the rest remained opened until the end of the trading day. For each trade, I calculated the Best Price During Trade or BPDT in the spreadsheet. As can be seen from the chart and the spreadsheet, there was no practical difference in entering with a stop or a limit order, except in trades 13, 20 and 27, where the limit orders were not executed. Now, please acknowledge the trades were taken in market replay RT, and everything that moved above LSH or below LSL was considered a breakout, perhaps If one defines more strict rules about what is a valid BO the differences between Stop and Limit entries would be much notable. The spreadsheet can be found in here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=32254&stc=1&d=1350900785 I will post next what would have happened if the only trades open were those around S/R. entryevaluation.xlsx
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Tomer, you were right about the bad trend line, but it was not a trend line but a line that connects the high and the low of the Fib tool in Ninja, I use it for finding the 50% RET, and the line is just collateral damage. But thanks anyway.
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You are right DB, I will do my homework before speculating about how long it can be.
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Chd, dont worry. I am aware of the fact. My intention here is to analize diferent entry alternatives no to backtest those two ideas. To build a trading system you need one or several entry points, one or several stop levels and one or several exit on profit mechanisms. When testing this with a mathematical model, is easier as you can run millions of backtests with tens of variables in a small amount of time, so if you screw up in the research questions you just lose computer time. With Wyckoff the stakes of screwing up in your research questions are much higher, as you will lose weeks of human backtesting hours. With a little experience in heuristic optimization (and by Iittle I mean Tiny) I think that if we all debate about what intuitively is a good entry our collective backtesting efforts will benefit, its something I read about and is known as cognitive surpluss, you can find the concept on wikipedia.
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Db, I will make my homework over the weekend, right now I am on an Ipad, so I am technologicaly impaired. To answer your question I will replay this day, and try to forget what I have seen in the chart in order to be as objective as possible. I will only test what I have written about, trend entries, on BO and on RET. Dont want to get into reversals and TR just yet. I will test the entries with and without taking S/R into account, and post the results.
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Would conditions prior to the BO, like the inability to reach support, and the making of HL, could increase the odds in favor of this kind of entry?
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My levels for Oil
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My levels for today. We finally made it out of that TR. The Black short lines are the 50% RET levels. Like NT does not let me label the lines here are the numbers (rounded). 28 35 44 53 60 Price at this time: 26 25 17 7 Will not be able to make it to the chat today. Have a nice weekend and see you all next week.
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I will first like to discuss trend entries. I will use uptrends as an example, but it applies for downtrends as well One can define a trend, at least a premilminary one as soon as one has a new HL, and a new HH. In this case one could enter in diferent places, the first place I want to bring into the discussion is the last high, which I think can be used for entries in the following ways: 1. At the BO of the last high, this can be done with a stop or an stop limit order, placed before the price had reached the last high, 2. After the BO, at the RET to the LH, this can be done waiting for price to go back to the last high and entering with a limit order at that level or waiting for price to go through the last high and placing a stop or a stop limit order above market price. At both places I am assuming one sets the stop loss at the same place, so the money risk is the same, now the real risk I think will depend on context, and the probabilities will depend on what the testing results tell you. Now, I know I have not tocuhed the subject of S/R, but I will leave that for another post or perhaps someone else wants to touch this subject.
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Bloc, Nice analysis. I was just wondering, Where was your entry. I cant find it. Greetings Niko
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In case anyone wants to discuss entry strategies, I think that I would be better if they could be discussed in an specific thread. I found the exits and scale out thread very useful.