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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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How odd, a crappy day as well. 1. First attempt of buyers to go higher. Scratched 2. First attempt of sellers to go lower. Scratched. Now we had an OR, not interested in trading inside the OR so...
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Same thing here.
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Buyers were finally found above 30, but they gave up pretty fast and in the new attempt for finding trades in new territories traders had failed at 36. So far 30 has been providing buying pressure as if traders still think this is a trend and just jump in in the LSH. At the open we will have to deal with either 37 or 29. Above 37 is virgin territory so we will have to focus on what traders are doing without any point of reference. Below 29 we have 20, 07 and 90.
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Very patient congratulations.
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For reference I also replayed yesterday. Not a better day. These last two weeks have sucked pretty badly. 1. After no buyers were found above 23 and sellers were interested below the PML I took the first RET. But just like the other days it was not meant to be a trend day and this short was SCR. 2. Some sort of hinge formed after they failed to make a LL and a HH and I waited for the break of the hinge and the next RET, but it was also SCR. After this I really wanted to see some real interest below the LOD before taking another short,as that did not happen I just stopped trading.
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We could barely break below 18. Only took 1 trade and I think I was because I got ahead of myself and did not wait for a clearer RET, that came 3 minutes later and from which no short would have been triggered. 1. After sellers decided they wanted to exit the hinge that was formed during the open I took this short that was SCR. After this we remained in a range all morning, It was a huge hinge that never got broken.
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First of all, thank you guys! I am feeling much better today. So here we are around top of tops again. Yesterday buyers failed to break above 731, but sellers also failed to find counterparties below 07, these levels beyond which they cant find trades have been shrinking and are currently at 26 -08. This morning , buyers attempted again a move above 26 but at the time of this post they don't seem to be strong enough. At the open, buying pressure could move prices above 30 into new territories or, selling pressure could increase and take prices towards the MP of the whole area around 18-20. Edit: Or we could just range for 20 minutes, like now
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I woke up sick today. Will not be able to trade. Good trading everyone.
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Had some complications this morning and couldnt trade live. I managed to run a "blind" replay before leaving. Here it is. Will post comments later. Not the best of mornings anyway.
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Yes, I have noticed the change in environment. According to your experience, when the environment changes, what are the clues in the context that allow one to expect a day like yesterday, compared to the trend days of last month. I am working in understanding where it is appropriate to risk a REV in order to take advantage of this. Regarding the short bias you are right, I will approach the market without any bias next week, thanks. I usually ignore swing highs and lows, but I will acknowledge them in the future. Yes, this is other thing I need to overcome, I have mistakenly get used to wait for a "bar" with a LH in order to "admit" it as a RET, but looking at the 20 tick chart for weeks had made me realize I am missing a the reality when I frame it like that. I think is inertia and I will deal with that. Yep, that is another thing I have noticed, will have to make some schedule changes in order to be able to accomplish this.
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Well, I agree, we dont know. But I think it is essential to understand behavior behind price action in order to be able to avoid the mechanical approach. Today was puzzling in RT for me and the SLA kept me with a couple of SCRs, but I am after the whole understanding of human behavior behind PA. Things like the fact that we found buyers at the reaction high in the hourly escaped my mind at the moment, i was actually waiting for a RET to short, but that was a mistake in HS, a mistake that one could avoid in the future if one understands the "nature" of a trend and how humans react to these levels when in a trend. Some days ago you pointed out something similar regarding reaction highs and lows in the 1 min chart. There is so much stuff we are currently leaving out of the picture that we need to incorporate if we are gonna turn this into a serious profession, so I am just taking note of what I think is important, I am not really going to act upon that in the next few days or in the next few months, but I know that by understanding what is happening with traders I know I am on my way of "thinking like Wyckoff" and in the end that is what I am after. The last couple of weeks have been all about means and midpoints and hinges and reversals. There have been no trend channels nor have there been many well-defined trading ranges. AMT has become more important than SLA, particularly with regard to retracements since they tend to come late, if they come at all. The SLA still works, but only if one is willing to tolerate substantial recoils. There also seems to be a general short bias among you, and this has been inappropriate. It is necessary to map out in advance potential areas and islands at which price may reverse, as it did off 45 this morning. If you get this posted by 0900, you may better be able to help each other. As for the retracements, it is important to remember that price is continuous. Note the arrows I posted to Dave's chart. This is a perfectly good retracement and can be played just like any other. It may also be necessary to hang around longer. 60 was obvious, but one had to wait for it. Whether or not the 16pts was worth it is up to the trader.
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I really need to start joining the dots, I realized I ignored the SH at 45, but given that we were in an uptrend the last "reaction high" was a level to take into account. Now, after reading my prep, taking the REV above 45 was not a risky trade out of the blue, it was a low risk high probability trade that was just above my "paygrade", but I cant ignore the fact that it was there so that when it happens again I am not so clueless about it. I am attaching a Chart whith my HS notes, where I realized that if I can be more critical and keen regarding PA and I am able to introduce the subtle details of context in my decision making process I could achieve much more. But I guess, I am too focused on my entry just to be able to see the whole forest.... BTW, the chart is large so I am sorry, I cant make it smaller and transmit the message.
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I couldn't post anything this morning as I had to run. So, here is my daily review. I was really "hoping" this to be a better day, given the rest of the week I thought we would get to have a nice trend morning, but the morning pretty much sucked, well it sucked because I was not competent enough to take the REV 45 and hold . In the end I had 2 scratches as RETs were much deeper that I am currently willing to absorb. And given that the second trade was inside the range I just decided to give up for the day and save myself another SCR. 1. Buyers failed to find followers above 59 so I decided to wait for the stride of the uptrend from premarket to be broken, once that ocurred I waited for a RET, but sellers were not really into the move and their doubt allowed prices to test LSH, given my SCR rules I exited the trade on a 2 point loss. Given that we had a HL and a break of a SL long was the way to go SLAwise, but then I realized the had tested the upside already so I did not want to get trapped in a TR and avoided to place the trade. But, and this is a big but I noticed minutes after, buyers FAILED to make a HH after a SL break and a HL, so it was a Dog! hence a reentry was called for, but I did not take it. Anyway the dog would have been SCR if taken as we had a VREV. Now at the moment I did not notice what ended up being extremely relevant in HS and that must be taken into account for future reference. As we hade managed to reach 59, we were actually confirming the uptrend in the hourly (prepwork) and what looked like a downtrend in the 1 minute, was just a RET that tested the SH of the 22nd at 45. See chart below. 2. After this VREV "out of the blue :crap: " I knew I was trapped in the OR, but, just but, I thought, given the strength of the upmove, buyers seem committed and I could get away with it. But I didnt, I ended up SCR as the 10:00 volatility pushed prices points away from my entry. At the time I said to myself " if they don't clear 59 I am not interested, but by the time they did I was already away.
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Thanks, I really wanted to see them making HHs before commiting again at the time, so even in replay I did not consider that one.
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Overnite traders have settled below 55 (PDH) and so far have failed to find more sellers below 47. The overal trend is still up, but we need to see if the open can take them above 55 or if sellers will find a new opportunity to unload at better prices. If they can break above 55 I see some trouble around 76 and then above 700. If they cant, then 30 and 14 are my first levels to watch. This can also be a crappy day anyway and they could decide they don't wanna go anywhere, so be aware of this and get away from the chop. Seems like the mean is currently at 50.
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Yesterday I did not have time to post the replay of the session. In this case I took the exit from the hinge and closed the short as it failed to break below the OL. Consider . . .
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Given our location in the daily and the LH in the hourly in premarket I really thought we were gonna go down. But we did not, buyers seem to like this market above 30 and screwed my plans . 1. At the open buyers tried above 40 and failed and then tried below 35 and also failed, by 9:45 they had formed a hinge. They broke out of the hinge on increased vol and in a cascade (not sure how to call a cascade up, any suggestions are welcome), I did not take that long because of the fact that we had already formed the opening range and were still inside it. 2. AFter the opening range was cleared I awaited for the first RET, but it was rapidly SCR, I think I SCR too early. 3. The fact that I was out and prices were still climbing led me to take the long at the next RET, but this one failed rapidly calling for a SCR. 4. Well, they definitely did not want it above 49 and the trend that started at the BO of the hinge was reversed, so, I awaited for the RET and took the short. At first it worked just fine, until we reached the OL and buyers decided that at 32 this was again a bargain, given that I am aiming for a trend and I am working on holding my guns I wanted to wait for a RET to form before exiting this trade, but the RET was pretty deep it went all the way to 50% of the downwave, but it bounced back down there. so I decided to let it fall and see if it would reverse again and make a LL or it will make a HH and break LSL, The first alternative would keep me inside a trade in a trend day, the second one would signal another range day, I was not interested in trading the second alternative so I decided to await for a confirmation of an uptrend before exiting, and that happened a couple of minutes later. I included the green diamond to point the exit point according to my interpretation of SLA. Had I taken that and avoided the next long (at 50%) I would have saved myself 5 points. 5.There was a strong influx of volume at 10:50 as buyers absorbed all that was available between 46 and 50 taking prices above the OH, so I decided to wait for the next RET and buy, but it was short lived and rapidly SCR, It was almost 11, and I had hit my daily loss limit, so no reason to stay any longer. Edit: Included the 20 tick "wave" chart.
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Another crappy open, formed a range around the PM MP. (37) Current top 41 and bottom 33.
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After exiting the daily hinge traders finally decided that 644 was too expensive for now, (the top of the daily TC that formed once they exited the hinge. We are also above the 50% of the daily downmove from 740. So the context is overall strength but there is no momentum to the upside as we are away from the mean (that now is around 590). Anyhow, buyers could give us a surprise and decide they really want to buy stocks for some reason and push above 645, but if my interpretation of a TC is correct AMT calls for buyers to give up and traders to look for equilibrium around the mean. If sellers commit we could see a drop that could find buyers around 24, 14, and 600. If buyers decide they want this so badly then we could see selling around 55 and 80. Regarding the areas beyond which traders have not been able to find trades, the most immediate one is 40, and below us 33.
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I think I am getting it, so the fact that it did not make a LL was what made it a dog. Partly. Notice how price bounces off the low of that bar, or interval. Reviewing and evaluating these things is extremely difficult with a static chart. But if you're watching it in real time, the suggestion that price doesn't want to go down is much easier to see. Yes, I see that now, thanks.
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I will review the Dog appendix, because there must be something I missed. Thanks. Developing a strategy for trading Dogs is difficult. It's the sort of thing that one must do in real time, without any notice, based on what price is doing at the time. Here you have what amounts to a short that gets scratched. To SAR means going long before the SL is even broken (see chart below). Better to wait until your "3", even though you won't make the maximum number of points. Keep in mind that these are ranging, not trending, so if you're going to try to trade the range, try to enter at the limits, which in this case means taking "1" and staying with it if and for as long as possible. Ok, thank you will add that to "things to watch for"
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Just finished my replay and found out that trading the dog (3) would have improved my results as It would have placed me in the trend much sooner giving me more wiggle room regarding trend stride break. I have a note regarding trade number 6, it was a failure of sellers to find trades below the hinge and below 50% but it was a long against the apex of the hinge so I only took it because I had hindsight knowledge but I don't think I would attempt that in RT.
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I see you took the dog, good.
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Today at first seemed promising, but then after finding a great deal of selling above 24 buyers gave up. 1. The down stride from premarket was broken at the open and after a RET the way to go was up, so a long was taken, but as we reached 16 buying pressure was reduced the stride of the uptrend was broken and a LH (RET) prompted an exit... 2... And a entry in the opposite direction. But it was a Dog and was rapidly SCR, unfortunately I did not take the dog (Green circle) and missed the best move of the day. I don't know that I would call this a Dog as price did drop by 2pts. By trading the SAR, you're anticipating the break of the SL which has formed by that time. Which is fine if you're confident enough to trade it. But waiting for a ret, or even a pause, after the SL break might be the preferred route at this point. 3. As prices moved higher rapidly I took this as a sign of strength and took the first RET after the Dog. But as we reached 24 buyers just gave up, it was a pretty fast move to the downside and I wanted to give the trade as much room as possible so I ended up closing at BE. 4. But just after I close price reversed and the trend from the open was still holding so I decided to take a reentry. But in this case buyers just gave up and I got trapped and SO. 5. So after failing to make a HH and given that we were at an important level I decided to take a short, but it was also SO. Given that so far only 1 of 5 trades had yielded the expected results I realized the environment was not favorable and decided to stop for the day. I kept on marking entries (circles and squares), but all of then would have meant a SCR. Edit: I just attached the 20 tick chart I use to see the waves and the hourly chart where it can bee seen that a TC that formed premarket pointed to a top around yesterday´s high. (see hourly chart)
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3 minutes for the open and we are still within the 01-10 TR, mean 06.