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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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Db , You are right I dont know how I missed that part.
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Db, I guess I am reading this out of context, but my question regarding this post is the following: Regarding the last contract at with a stop at BE, doesn't this leaves one stuck with a position where one could be taking the opposite side of the market?
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I was just reviewing today's action through another perspective and wanted to post it. I still don't see anything useful here, but then again, who am I to judge. Just in case someone thinks this might help. P.S. Is a 1 tick box 3 box reversal P&F.
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From the TIF post: 1. Premarket prices went through 50 without major interferences from sellers , after testing 50 again, buyers remained in control represented in longer upwaves and minor steps as they found sellers on the way. 2. By the open we were at the same levels we started yesterday, and in there sellers came in the market changing the stride, but buyers again showed up before prices could reach the MP and supported the market. 3. After hitting small R at 54, prices rose with difficulty towards R at 57, when 57 was finally broken, selling at 59 (the MP from yesterday´s premarket TR) halted the advance. There sellers tried to regain control, but again with difficulty (too bumpy). Sellers were able to stop buyers from advancing but not able to take them away from the last swing MP at 54. 4. Prices finally managed to advance above 57 and after a RET to 57 above 59 without much effort. 5. Then, after testing 59 as S, prices advance and broke above 61, the top of yesterday TR. (During the chat DB talked about a short covering rally, but I am not sure if he was referring to this one in particular). I was speculating about stops being activated, but I really don’t know. After the BO, notice how sellers could not manage to take prices to S again. A signal of strength. 6. Prices then rose to 68 without much interference (my observation is that the waves are smoother, than in the 9:33 9:46 ascents, I am guessing that means less sellers interference). There sellers came in and manage to take prices to the LSH where buyers found an opportunity to come in again. 7. After breaking above the 67-69 congestion area, the struggle between buyers and sellers lasted for 10 minutes. I was thinking that this was it, but then again as DB and G say, you have to trade what you see not what you expect. Prices managed to break above the top of the hinge. One interesting feature about this congestion is that selling waves seem stronger than buying waves, but then the BO was to the Upside with just a small RET. 8. Prices found R at 73, I did not have that area in my premarket analysis. 9. The 78 area was another one I did not have on my radar. 10. Prices finally reached 81, where they found R. I was obsessed about 82 on the chat, but when I reviewed my levels I found out that I had 81 on my levels, so I am not so far away from WD (Gann I mean :haha:) P.S: From now on no more climatic movements, only climactic ones.
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We are in a trading range between 30 and 67. Yesterday, although the SL from 10/18 held as the market could not breach R at 67, signaling weakness, the fact that those sellers were not able to breach 30, gives this level more importance. The fact that sellers spent 40.000 contacts moving 20 points and that that same distance was covered by sellers with 20.000 contracts, made me think about effort vs result and the possibility of buyers retaking control of the market before the open. But then those are just newbie speculations.( See chart 2) Chart 1 Chart 2 My levels for the day (all levels +/- 2) 95 Week High 91 LT Swing MP 81 69-67 54 50 Last Swing MP 30 04 Week low If prices manage to cross the mid point, next levels are 57, 67-69 and 81 that would break the current SL If prices find R in the MP at 50, then 30 is the next level. If 30 is broken we would have to move to July for S at 24 and then go all the way to may for S at 04-07 and then 590. Note I am not making calls, as I do not have a setup defined so far. These are just thoughts, and debatable ones of course.
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My analysis for the day. First of all I would like to post my premarket analysis, just to be honorable: It never managed to get to 30, it stopped at 37. This is my analysis: 1. After a small trading range formed in the premarket, prices broke S at 57 at the open, sellers moved the market with difficulty (too bumpy). 2. After finding S at 54, sellers tried a last effort to move prices down but were rejected by strong buying at 52. 3. Although 57 brought some sellers with it 59 (preopen range MP) was the level at which sellers finally managed to stop buyers from advancing. 4. After breaking 57 again at 9:35, there were various test, each one with a LH and LL, signaling weakness 5. After breaching 52 at 9:43, prices reached 50 and found S around 48, there came a HL and the buying waves started to strengthen, buyers ones again took control of the market and managed to take prices to 58. 6. At 58 Sellers came in first halting buyers, but then exerting more pressure making LH and forming a small hinge. 7. After breaking out from the hinge and crossing the 54 congestion zone, sellers made it to S at 50, with little opposition from buyers. There after a failed BO, prices congested again as sellers and buyers were not able to move the market in their intended directions. After a failed rally attempt at 10:07, sellers finally took control and managed to break out. 8. Prices found S at 44, although sellers attempted pushing the market lower, they found buyers again at 41. Then after a struggle at 44 prices broke to the upside. 9. Buyers started losing strength at 10:24 after reaching 47 and then, possibly from the 10:08 congestion, supply started halting their advance, managing to move prices down in a strong wave at 10:27 10. S was found at 44 where prices congested for a while forming a hinge that was broker at 10:40 on strong selling. 11. After a difficult descent, prices finally reached S at 37 where sellers were promptly rejected by strong buying on a V Reversal to 41, all the way to the top of the downtrend channel. 12. Prices tested 37 again at 10:56 where a DB was formed.
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Good Morning Everyone, Hope everything is better after the storm. My levels for the day (all levels +/- 2) 95 Week High 91 LT Swing MP 81 69-67 54 50 Last Swing MP 30 04 Week low We are still in a downtrend that started in September 20, Although from the 26 prices have been reaching HL If buyers manage to break above 70. next stop should be at 82 and then 91 if they fail, 57, 49 and 30 should be the next stops.
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I do it this way: After attaching the JPG file I click on it, then i copy the link. After that I press the insert image icon and paste the link on the textbox.
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Trying to hone my skills with the CL contract, I was amazed how the S/R levels really give the impression of a nice pointy hat is on top of one´s head. Please note all the levels were defined before the market topped. This chart is intended for the non believers who are still lurking around. (As everyone else knows that this stuff does work). P.S. I did not know where else to place this, I though given the interval, this could be a good place, if you think this should go somewhere else please move it if required. And yes, I know there are way too many levels. Please bear with me, just this time. Thank you DB
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Db, Thanks again very clarifying.
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Db, i am re reading the s/r thread, so i think i will find this eventually. You mentioned in the chat today, and previously on one of my posts that there were too many lines. The thing is, if one selects only 5 lines, how does one detect the minor sr levels we ussually find in rt in thhe chat. Is that why you keep different bar intervals, so that you have the most relevant levels for each? The second thing is that as we are reaching new lows in the nq, we need to go all the way to july to find relevant TRs. After these zones are being populated by new trades, should we move the S/R levels, giving more importance to the most recent areas, I guess the answer is yes, but anyway the worst question is the one that is not made. Have a nice WE.
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Db, Although i have only been doing this screen time for 2 days, i see how usefull it is, a week ago i was totally overwhelmed about the tick chart, too much info. But that is because i was only thinking in trades, and still had an oil price chart full of indicators. This week, following your advise i turned off all the other charts and stopped thinking in buy an sell, some things that were just noise before, started to make sense. And as you said, the post market analisys reinforces the knowlegde aquired during the session. Lets see where this takes me. Thanks again for everything. Please forgive my spelling, again writing from an ipad.
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Bern, Thanks for your advise. I actually did what you do and then edited the charts in paint, but it did not work as I expected it. I still think my analysis is way too long, but then I dont know yet what is and what is not important to notice, so until I develop sharper tapereader senses I will have to bear with myself. I actually intended fot the chart to have continiuty so that everyone could see the flow in price uninterupted. Now, i think that the 30 tick chart does the work just well, I will post that from now on. Regarding volume, as I cant find something useful to say yet, i will remove it from the chart. The only thing that intrigues me are the peaks in volume (120 contracts in 10 ticks and stuff like that), but so far no cause effect has been dectected.
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Db, I just added a new 30 tick chart in the post. Due to NT scaling restrictions, I can´t do much more with the 10 tick chart.
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Here is my day´s recount. I hope that I will be able to contribute with more substantial observations during the following weeks. I don't see much just yet. 1. After failing to make a HH in premarket, sellers dumped their contracts in the market moving the price 4 points to the downside. 2. Buyers came in at S at 50, and managed to stop the fall, but not to the point of reaching the premarket H, and actually making a DT. 3. After the DT prices entered into a hinge that was broken at 9:32 4. After the BO there was a pullback to the midpoint of the hinge. Then sellers came in strong crossing through the 50 S without a problem. 5. Prices reached the premarket hinge that DB noted in the Chat and stopped at the midpoint near 46. 6. After compressing price broke out of the tiny congestion at 935. 7. Buyers took the price up without any signigicant attempt from sellers, but by 9:38 their angle of ascent started to falter. 8. Then around 9:41 there was a DT, followed by the first sign of strength on the part of the sellers. 9. The struggle turned into a hinge that was broken at 9:46 with a pullback that did not reach the MP of the hinge. 10. Prices rose to the MP of the TR that DB published in TIF http://cdn3.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/131/32412d1351257530-trading-foresight-wyckoff-forum-nq-100-hourly-20121026061735.png, I did not get it in my levels. 11. There it found R, from there sellers took prices down to 63 where they found some buyers, that was enough to pause the decline, but not halt it, sellers then manage to take prices down to 60 where they found S at the bottom of the hinge from 9:43. 12. Buyers managed to take prices to 64 again, but prices reversed rapidly on what looked like a H&S in the 1 min. 13. From there sellers took the price down without interference from the buyers until the 54 level was reached again. There buyers managed to stop the decline and define a DB and a hinge. 14. This hinge was broken abruptly with only a small pullback, and prices started advancing, but sellers were not giving up, and prices were constantly retracing 15. Price finally reached the 60 level where it found R and entered into congestion 16. After 10:12 buyers managed to exit congestion and kept going up until reaching 64 where they found enough supply to stop their advance. Although they gave a fight at 62 they lost control of the market, prices started falling again. 17. Prices fell to the MP of the TR at 15, stayed congested and formed a hinge, sellers managed to BO at 10:21 with a pullback at 10:23. From that pullback the SL was moved to the right. 18. Prices fell with small RETs until reaching the 50 area from the beginning of the morning. 19. There prices defined a TR that was broken at 10:45 with a pullback to the bottom of the TR. 20. Buyers tried to bring some S at 46, but were not strong enough, prices broke 46 to the downside. 21. R at 46 was tested again at 10:56 22. From there prices fell to 39 where buyers defined a DB, taking someone’s mangoes with them. (I guess mangoes where just waiting to be served at lunch. :haha:) 10 tick chart 30 tick chart
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Thanks, nice analysis. What is a RBS and a PB?
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My levels for today. 683 670 - 73 PDH 656 650 638 MP of last swing 637 624 607-04 PDL 590 583 572 562 543 526 509
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Well here is my analysis, I believe this is too much, I will work on being more concrete as days go by. 1. At the open, there was a struggle around the 70 R level that buyers had been trying to break since 4:00 AM in the morning. 2. Even under opening conditions(High volatility), buyers were unable to break the premarket high at 73, forming a DT, after which sellers managed to take the market down pretty fast towards S. Although there was some demand coming in at S around 9:34, it just stopped the decline for less than a minute, providing an opportunity to draw a SL. That supply line remained valid until 9:35 where buyers came in to stop the sellers. 3. Price formed a small TR, in which Buyers and Sellers fought for control, by 9:37 there was a BO from this TR, prices fell fast, and after a pullback to the bottom of the TR, prices resumed their decline. The top of the TR also gave the opportunity to trace a new SL that would remain valid until 9:41. 4. After finding buying pressure at 61 (No precise reason noted), the market made its first up wave of importance after the open. Buyers managed to push the market near the Bottom of the TR described at 3, but failed to reach it and in the following attempt at 9:45 failed to make a HH, then the market entered into a new TR. 5. Sellers tested their chances with buyers at 9:47, but it was a failed BO. 6. Buyers took the market high without a fight, but lost control of price at the MP of the TR, from that point on, prices started marking LHs, and breaking bellow the Bottom of the range. 7. Up until 9:53, 63-65 became a small congestion area, but at 9:54 sellers managed to break below the low of that congestion taking the prices down to 60. 8. At 9:54 buyers started pressing prices to the upside, but the zigzagging was signal that the sellers were not giving up. By 9:56 price had reached the 9:43 TR, and found enough sellers to absorb the demand. Prices started falling, and down waves started to be again longer than up waves. 9. Prices started descending towards S, with small stops at 61, 60 at 58. At 10:01 prices reached S at 57, bounced and then tested successfully. 10. After a successful test of S, prices Reversed and started marking HHs and HLs until reaching the earlier zones on congestion around 64 and 67 and around 67 and 69. 11. Finally prices reached R at 70, and then after retracing more than 50% form the LSH, prices failed to make an NH around R, proving that now Sellers had control of the market. 12. After a first pullback at 10:25 prices descended rapidly through the congestion zones between 69 and 64, until reaching 60, a previous resting point during the morning. 13. At that point prices entered a hinge that was exited at 10:38, when sellers took control of the market and did not find any opposition from the sellers until they reached 59. So far the down waves have been predominantly smooth as opposed to the up waves that show more zigzagging characteristics. (Is this a signal of seller’s domain?) 14. Finally, sellers made it to S at 57, this time they did not find any significant opposition from buyers. 15. Then after a Ret to 57, which now served as R, prices kept on falling until they reached 52, where buyers started coming in.
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I think this was great group therapy. Sometimes, just knowing that you are not the only one felling bad about your trading plan, helps :haha:. Now lets get to work.
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Tomer, thanks for the post, I was reviewing some other post regarding this issue of trend entries and I found this, that has me thinking about the efficiency of such strategy When we already have the 2 HH we have less information risk, but the higher price risk, I don't know if entering there gives us the most efficient entry. Look at this post by BLOC, it kinda makes the point. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/14506-entries-wyckoff-forum-4.html#post164441
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DB, Do you mean this thread? http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/6459-then-there-were-three-breakouts-retracements.html I could not find them.
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My levels for today: 778 766 755 729 717 705 694 683 670 663 Yest MP 657 645 633 If it serves any purpose to someone else using NT, I have configured the NT Fibonacci tool to draw boxes and to tell me where the levels are, as horizontal lines do not have tags.
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I am currently facing a problem. I am in the middle of the chicken and the egg paradox. I am formulating hypothesis, as a result of the discussions we´ve been having here in the forum and in the chatroom. I was even going to start today testing a year of hinges BOs, but then I realized something was missing. I went to the beginning of the Journal Thread, but I could not find it, so I look everywhere, and I think I found it in the trading in 90 min. Now, I understand that following the scientific method, one must first Observe in order to formulate the first hypothesis. By defining a pattern for entries, I was forcing my mind again (have been handicapped from my systematic trading experience :crap:)) to look for the patterns I wanted to see instead of the patterns that are there. Then I realized that I had to do exactly what Db said, I had to familiarize myself with the ebb and flow of the market and try to identify buying and selling pressure. Here is where I would need some group support, because after staring for 1 hour (I know I need much more time), I came to the realization that I did not know WTF (Not the Setup) was I looking for. Maybe is that I am way too moronic for this or maybe I am missing something, that is why I wanted to ask the more experienced W traders if they have any suggestions about the issue of screen time. Am I supposed to start identifying patterns in the movement of price after I do this for weeks, am I supposed to look at a tick chart. I don't know, any help here would be appreciated.
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Very interesting, a lot of excel coding work. I will give it a deep look. As a comment, I would like to say that in my indicators trading I use some columns to define some what ifs, mainly I record, best price during trade, best price after trade, worst price during trade and worst price after trade. With those after each 100 trades I analyse if there is any thing I can tweak to improve trading results. Like move my TP some ticks, move my trailing stop using a different MA, changing the stochastic,you name it... Now, as I said in other post, my interest is to learn W methods, so I can stop relying in indicators setups that might not work in the future. I just wanted to share some variables I analyze, that I think can be of use in other Trading Logs.
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Db, Is there any disadvantage in considering 12 as the entry instead of 14?