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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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I had a problem logging in to TF since Friday, something to do with my IP, but the people at support fixed it, and here I am again. Here is the analysis for the day. The trading session (9:30 to 11:00) was characterized by a slow downtrend that started around the open, after buyers were unable to break the Opening High. Here is the description of the points of interest during the session: Just before the open the market had been flirting with the 95 R area, buyers interest was stronger than selling interest as can be noted by the size of the upwaves. During the open the buyers lost control of the market at 98.5. Sellers managed to poke bellow S at 95, but after failing to maintain a LH, buyers entered and made a HL. After this buying waves started to get stronger. 98.5 became the HOD and a point of R, and it managed to serve as the containing wall for buyers, who did not manage to even poke this level around 9:40. After making a LH, prices started going down and after breaking S at 95 with strength sellers started pushing lower, using 95 as R on the retracement. 92 provided temporary S, but buyers were not strong enough (timid up waves to break above R at 95, sellers took advantage of buyers hesitation at the SMI release and pushed prices towards last week´s high where S was awaiting. After providing S at 90 buyers did not manage to reach R on the next try. Sellers took prices down again to 90 and this time managed to make a LH around it, finally taking prices lower to 86 where S was provided (was not in my levels) Price congested around 90 and by 10:15 buyers managed to break out, providing a RET just after the BO. Before reaching R at 95 buyers stalled, when R was finally reached price bounced very fast, practically without a warning for expecting bears. After 2 bounches at S at 90 buyers were unable to make break LSH and finally sellers managed to break bellow 90 without a problem. S was found at 85, but buyers advance was bumpy sending signals of lack of conviction on the upside move. After retesting S at 85 price rose rapidly but stalled just ticks away from the LSH, and after that a LH was made. Sellers crossed S like a hot knife through butter and prices fell all the way to S at 80. After touching 80, buyers started making stronger efforts to keep prices from falling, by 11:00 80 was still supporting the market.
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The market was in a very tight TR the whole session, it oscillated around the 82 level, buyers did not have enough strength to move prices beyond 88 and sellers were unable to get bellow 73. During the session I pointed out in the chat that 77 and 73 looked like levels of interest, but I did not have them plotted in my chart so I did not pay much attention to them, something to work in into the future. My analysis for yesterday´s action: 1. Before the open prices had been rising towards R at 82, after the open 82 was taken out and a small RET gave an opportunity for an entry, although this one is tricky because of the small poke above R, that could easily be a fake break of R. 2. After a more significant upswing prices made a V reversal at 86 and started a bumpy descent, the bumpiness was a signal of buyers not giving up on the way down, so one must be alert for a RET opportunity that came up around 9:40. The result of the Ret was a rapid advance above the LSH, but then price stalled at 88, broke the DL (not drawn) and then made a LH and a LL. At first this looked like a normal pullback but then at 9:47 the rapid collapse in prices gave signal that something was wrong with buyers. 3. Finally sellers managed to reach S at 82, but were rapidly rejected by buyers. Sellers were not giving up and sold all they could making prices fall fast as well, but then again buyers were just too strong at S and prices bounced making a DB and then a HL, from there prices rose rapidly with hardly any sellers interference until they reached the 88 level (HOD) and marked a DT. 4. After the rapid REV from the DT at 88, buyers gave it a last try at 82, but by then sellers had gained a following and got what they wanted, breaking bellow 82. The first minutes bellow 82 were a little bumpy with buyers interference but after the (LOD) was taken out sellers went into frenzy taking prices lower and lower. Finally buyers came in at 73 where a V reversal showed the conviction of their intentions. Around 76-79 prices congested and finally around 10:26 there was a BO from the TR, but it was short lived and stopped on the now R area of 82. 5. Prices bounced from R making a LH and then went back to the TR around 76-79, there buyers started acting with growing conviction making HLs. 6. Buyers reached R again, but found strong sellers interest, sellers managed to make a LH, which could have prompted a short entry, but then buyers entered strong and broke R which would have triggered the stops on that short entry. By 11:00 prices had broken R and were making HL and HHs. This analysis was posted by mistake in the Tif forum, and i couldn't erase it. Sorry.
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The market was in a very tight TR the whole session, it oscillated around the 82 level, buyers did not have enough strength to move prices beyond 88 and sellers were unable to get bellow 73. During the session I pointed out in the chat that 77 and 73 looked like levels of interest, but I did not have them plotted in my chart so I did not pay much attention to them, something to work in into the future. My analysis for the day´s action: 1. Before the open prices had been rising towards R at 82, after the open 82 was taken out and a small RET gave an opportunity for an entry, although this one is tricky because of the small poke above R, that could easily be a fake break of R. 2. After a more significant upswing prices made a V reversal at 86 and started a bumpy descent, the bumpiness was a signal of buyers not giving up on the way down, so one must be alert for a RET opportunity that came up around 9:40. The result of the Ret was a rapid advance above the LSH, but then price stalled at 88, broke the DL (not drawn) and then made a LH and a LL. At first this looked like a normal pullback but then at 9:47 the rapid collapse in prices gave signal that something was wrong with buyers. 3. Finally sellers managed to reach S at 82, but were rapidly rejected by buyers. Sellers were not giving up and sold all they could making prices fall fast as well, but then again buyers were just too strong at S and prices bounced making a DB and then a HL, from there prices rose rapidly with hardly any sellers interference until they reached the 88 level (HOD) and marked a DT. 4. After the rapid REV from the DT at 88, buyers gave it a last try at 82, but by then sellers had gained a following and got what they wanted, breaking bellow 82. The first minutes bellow 82 were a little bumpy with buyers interference but after the (LOD) was taken out sellers went into frenzy taking prices lower and lower. Finally buyers came in at 73 where a V reversal showed the conviction of their intentions. Around 76-79 prices congested and finally around 10:26 there was a BO from the TR, but it was short lived and stopped on the now R area of 82. 5. Prices bounced from R making a LH and then went back to the TR around 76-79, there buyers started acting with growing conviction making HLs. 6. Buyers reached R again, but found strong sellers interest, sellers managed to make a LH, which could have prompted a short entry, but then buyers entered strong and broke R which would have triggered the stops on that short entry. By 11:00 prices had broken R and were making HL and HHs.
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Well, we are almost at the same spot we were yesterday and prices are very congested, it looks like buyers had lost their interest as up-bars can seldom close at the high and prices are easily rejected from R. Although during the today´s morning prices managed to breach the TR it is not really a significant poke and we might be facing a thrust . If prices manage to find S at the 81-85 area and make a RET then we could expect a resumption of the UT towards: 695 704-06 713-18 730 If this is actually a thrust and prices return to the TR then we should expect S at: 682-79 673-67 657 649-45 637
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It has been a rough ride for the shorts, who tried to retake control yesterday morning but finally gave up without much of a chance. We are still in an UT that started on the 16th, whose TL has shifted to the right, as of now (8:20AM) price has reached R at 81 and is struggling. If 81 is taken out my next levels of R are: 95 04-06 13-18 30 If 81 holds and prices start reversing my levels of S are: 69-67 57 49-45 37
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Great analysis G. As for the futures, the main observation I have now is that we are in the MP of the Sept Nov decline (682), so we could expect some pressure as the advance continues. Yesterday´s low provided the HL we needed to draw a DL and the close above LSH provided the elements to have a TL, I have also plotted a SL to trace the channel. If buyers keep their enthusiasm and manage to take out the MP which is also the MP of the Mar-Apr TR the next levels of R to watch out would be: 727 762 786 If the MP holds and the decline resumes we would possibly find S at: 643 578 514
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My post market analysis: Before the open, prices had broken the 30 S level and by the open that level had became R, sellers were coming so strong that the pullbacks did not manage to reach R but were stopped by sellers around 28. Sellers strength was confirmed as the S at 25 was taken out with ease. After buyers came into the market at 9:48 and managed to take prices to R, looks like sellers were just taking a breather, and a DT gave again a signal of sellers power. After reaching the 16 S area prices started decelerating on the way down until S was finally found around 13, there Price made a HL around 10:10 and that was the beginning of the new UT. After a small pause around the 20 TR from 9:46 buyers retook control and went merrily through R at 25 finally stopping around R at 30. Prices started consolidation around 30, providing LHs that could have persuaded some players to go short, but then around 10:31 buyers managed to set a HL signaling a possible continuation. After being able to retake control of the market buyers reached R at 37 where sellers started to get stronger, finally after reaching 40, sellers stopped buyers. But buyers were not giving up and tried to keep prices above 37 until they were exhausted at 10:49 and a LH was set by sellers. Sellers then took prices through S and managed to make a new low just to find buyers at 33. With difficulty, buyers managed to take price to R at 37 but were rejected.
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Yesterday afternoon buyers tried to take prices higher after reaching S at 37, although they managed to break above the morning high at 56 R at 57 was too strong and sellers finally retook control of the market. By the end of the trading day sellers had managed to take price outside the ascending channel giving an official end to the uptrend that started on the 16th. The break of the TL was confirmed by a LH at 15:30 and a LL after the close. Right now we are on what can be the start of a downtrend (or just a correction, we will have to wait and see) Levels bellow price: 30-25 16 07 97 Levels above price: 37 45-49 57 67
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Yesterday we finally got the first down close, and it was bellow the 43 S level, today sellers are still on control of the market, my levels below price are: 593 578 514 If this is just a profit taking decline and buyers start to come in again then my levels above price: 643 690 672 P.S. G have you found the answer to your inquiry? I have the same doubt.
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My analysis for today: 1. Before the open price price had fallen from the 50 R area towards the 45 S area. At 45 buyers managed to stop the decline and made a HL just before volume came in at the open. Buyers had enough strength to keep prices from falling but where unable to reach R at 50 at their 1st attempt. 2. Around 9:37, buyers managed to take prices out of an small TR and reached 50, but were rapidly repelled by sellers who took prices towards the opening TR. There sellers lost their ability to move prices and a DB at 9:45 was a sign of sellers weakness. 3. After a rapid increase in prices without much interference from Sellers, buyers broke the 50 R level and turned into a S at the first pullback. From then prices rose with strength until 9:50 when a LH gave an early signal of sellers exhaustion. After 2 LHs price fell rapidly without bothering on pausing until the 50 S level was reached. 4. When prices reached S at 50, one last attempt of buyers to repel sellers took prices above the LSH, but this impulse was short lived and sellers made a LH around 10. 5. After breaking bellow S at 50 prices went down smoothly, made a small pause at the bottom of the opening TR and finally cut through S at 45 with ease. From 45 it was an easy way down until 42 was reached at which point the first signals of S showed up slowing the descent. 6. On the rise from 42 buyers found R at 45 again and here sellers came in again moving prices down. The road down the hill was bumpy and buyers where trying all the way to take prices up again, but most of the times they fell to make a HH 7. At 10:24 sellers finally reached S, but where exhausted by then after fighting buyers from 45 to 37, this sellers weakness was confirmed at the first and second test of S where buyers kept sellers from reaching 37. At 10:46 buyers started buying with conviction and managed to take prices higher. R at 45 was finally reached after 11.
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Is everyone on strike :haha: or was the chatroom changed?
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After 11:00 the market found S around 25 and prices rose all the way to 56 around the 57 R area. Now prices are around the 49 S/R area and we are still inside the channel that started in the 16th. If prices hold and manage to keep advancing my levels of interest are: 57 67-69 81 95 If sellers hold the high at 56, and prices start to go down S could be found at: 45 37 30-25 16
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After yesterday afternoon´s rally the market closed above the 643 S/R level, and is back inside the Mar Apr TR. As Db pointed out in the chat, we are overbought, so a pullback is expected at any time, nevertheless if the market keeps on going up, it would not be the first time this kind of rally happens, so we must be flexible to whatever hand the market gives us. If the market keeps going up the levels of interest are: 682 (50% Retracement from last downswing) 690 737 762 If sellers take control and take prices bellow 643 again then S should be expected at: 593 578 514
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Today was a low volume, but interesting day, as one has a chance to test the W way in a very harsh environment (choppiness). 1. The day started above the 30 S level that was identified in the premarket, after holding during the open, lower tops gave a bad signal for longs, as sellers were managing to keep buyers at bay. 2 Around 9:36 sellers managed to break below 30, but then their advance was marked by increased interference from buyers, until prices reached 26. 3. At 26 buyers came in strong and managed to take prices again above R at 30. See the speed of the movement and how there was no pullback until price reached 31, then buyers entered again with strength until 35 was reached and from then on the advance was more difficult until buyers finally reached 37. 4. Sellers first attempt to take prices down was confirmed at the DT at 9:55, but it was short lived and buyers came in again with strength at 36. 5. At 39, buyers lost their impulse and sellers started to take the market down, at 10:00 the first LH was indicative of sellers control of the market, by 10:04 the third LH was sending signals that buyers had given up. After S at 37 was broken and had become R prices started to go down with difficulty, but this behavior changed around 10:10 when sellers started to move with ease to the downside in each new down wave. 6. At the 30 S area buyers came in fast making a V reversal that managed to take prices towards R at 37 very fast. 7. At 37 buyers were not able to make a HH and a DT gave signal that something was wrong with the bull side, then sellers came in very strong, in fact stronger than in the previous occasions and took prices to S at 30 after 11:00
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Right now prices are moving around the 30-25 S/R level within the context of the uptrend that started on the 16th. If Prices manage to break below 25 then S would be expected at:: 16 07 97 87-84 If the TL holds and the trend keeps on going up, then a break above 30 would men potential R at: 37 45-49 60 MP of the oct Nov TR 67 Note: The channel was traced from the 16 but I have trimmed off parts of the chart so that only the areas of interest appear visible.
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We have finally broken the down trend decisively and are outside of the channel. Price is has found some R around the 640 area. Given the fact that there has not been any major RET during the rise, one would expect some correction during this week so that a HL will make possible to draw a DL. If 643 is crossed then we should expect R at: 690 737 762 786 If 643 holds and send prices down again then S should be expected at: 593 578 514
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Tupapa, first of all welcome back, haven't seen you in a while. In the "observation mode" you are supposed to discover those patterns that precede price movement (DT and DB, LH and HL, climaxes, etc), if those patterns occur far away from your s/r levels it can be because you are not drawing the pertinent s/r levels, because the market has found S/R out of the blue ( which can happen) or because there is no significant interest but anyhow the price movement draws that particular pattern. The problem is that you dont know which is which in rt and really dont have time when trading to do so, and anyway you are supposed to make a choice about buying or selling. This can drive you crazy and fill you with doubt, and finally contribute to your tuition payment. So, if you focus on your s/r levels, you at least have the clarity that price had found interest at that particular level and will not bother with the ebb an flow of prices outside those levels. I guess one could take every dt or db, but the ammount of whipsaws would eat you in commisions alone, focussing on those that occur around s/r you will give you a higher probability of being shot away from the potential congestion area that ussualy forms around s/r levels and will also give you a very narrow stop loss compared against potential profit, but most important of all it will look like something that you have previously catalogued and tested hundreds of times and this will give you some degree of probabilistic certainty that will also provide the peace of mind requiered to avoid doing something stupid outside your plan. Well, those are my two cents, I am not an expert just a green newbbie, but those are my thoughts and I hope they help. Ps, i know you dont trade the nq, but you should definetly come back to the chatroom, that is the only place where you can combine the possibility to ask questions and the opportunity that those questions come up because you are watching the price move in rt. As i have said before i like to trade oil, but watching the nq move for 90 minutes and being able to participate and get feedback has greatly improved my ability to spot opportunities in oil as well.
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Here is my analysis for WTI The change in contract messes around with all the levels, but I think I have adjusted them all correctly. The top of the channel was poked 2 days ago, but prices found R at 89, the volume increase in yesterday session along with a close below the MP of the day was a weakness sign that took us back once more inside the TR. If this weakness confirms itself and the market can break below 86 we could expect 84 and 82 to provide S. If buyers manage to make a comeback above 86, then 88, 89 and 90 would provide R. In this second case, the channel break would be confirmed and we should be on the look out for a HL in order to define a new DL.
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Today was a particularly dull day, people have better things to do than trade, so I guess I will follow the herd for the rest of the week. Of my premarket levels only 84 was touched (1), there was a Rev that came out of that level and managed to take prices to yesterdays high (3). An interesting thing during the session was the hinge (2) that turned into a very boring trading range, I guess that without a very strict set of rules for entry one can easily end up losing a lot of money in this kind of market.
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The market has had a very steep upward run on relatively low volume, the upswing needed 600k contracts vs the downswing from the same price level that needed 1,7 million contracts to occur. This might mean that sellers are waiting before trying to take control again and are leaving the buyers alone to see where they can take this before the next plunge. As for immediate action, price is still on the uptrend that started on Friday but that has been losing momentum, evidenced in the inability to reach the top of the trend channel, a recent poke below the TL is also a warning to be on the look. Right now it looks as if the market was making a LH but appearances can be deceiving, so it is not prudent to imagine things just yet. Levels in case the trend holds: 597 607 616 625 Levels in case the LH holds and the market breaks below 84: 676-72 60 48 38
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Prices are again at the top of the channel. Price is below the 594 R area, above the MP of the May Jul TR and still within a downtrend. If price manages to break above R it would also be making a HH today. Its next pause would be expected at 643, although sellers can run out of steam before reaching that mark. Perhaps as G noticed some post ago, RIMM was the tipping wizard with the pointy hat and the market will reverse or we might just enjoy another downswing and blame the fiscal cliff.
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My notes for the day: 1. At the open the market was in an Uptrend that started at 7:30 and around the 60 S/R area, after the open prices held above S and finally managed to break to the upside at 9:35. 2. Prices rose with only minor opposition until reaching 64, but sellers withdrew fast and buyers managed to reach R at 68. Sellers took prices again towards the 64-62 area, but were rejected by buyers at 9:42. The decisiveness of buyers is evidenced in the change of character of the swings. Price rose again, small R was provided by sellers at 68 and after being turned into S at 9:48, buyers kept on climbing until reaching 72. 3. At 72 sellers were waiting to dump their contracts, buyers hardly managed to reach the level and then a LH evidenced their lack of strength. 4. After sellers took control of the market, buyers tried to scare them at 10:00 when prices reached 68 again, but sellers did not allow a HH and in their next attempt broke through S without much problem, turning 68 into R in the next RET. 5. 68 provided strong R and prices managed to reach the 62 congestion area, where S was formed (no line traced as it was not a level identified premarket.) 6. After failing to reach 60, buyers came in strong and broke 68 without to many sellers on the way. 7. Buying interest run out at 72, and sellers took control again taking prices to 68. 8. Buyers and sellers were willing to give a good fight for control of the market here, both managed to move freely in the TR, but by 10:30, it looked as if buyers were the ones with the upper hand as evidenced by HLs. 9. 72 provided little R and rapidly turned into a S, prices were propelled to the 76 R area, were sellers one again tried to stop buyers advance. This was the point where I pointed out a potential buying climax in the 1 min (chart not included) 10. After making a LH sellers looked like they had control of the market. But after 11 they did not manage to reach S at 72, activity was way too dull.
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After a Rev after 11:30 on Friday, and a HL set before the close, prices are once again headed for the top of the TR. At the time of this analysis 6:40 price is around 48, a zone of R. If prices manage to break above 48, then the next levels of interest are: 60 72-76 84-87 97 If 48 provides enough R then the down move could find S at: 38-33 23 12 00
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My analysis for Friday. 1. The market started the day with a break below S at 23, by the open the sellers were taking a break around 22 but then they kept moving prices down all the way to 12. 2. S was expected at 14, and although a small pause was provided by buyers at that level, It was until 12 that buyers started taking control by making the first decisive upswing since the open. Prices then congested around 14, but this congestion was short lived and by 9:35 buyers managed to get catapulted from 14 on a sharp increase, although sellers came in with strength they did not manage to reach S, and that was a sign of strength on the part of the buyers. By 9:40 buyers were losing steam and the upswings were less and less decisive, after reaching the opening congestion area around 22 where sellers took a break, sellers took again things into their hands, providing a sharp decline. 3. After retaking control, sellers manage to break through S without problem, and 14 became the R that was validated by the RET at 9:44. After failing to reach S by 9:46 buyers tried to break above R, but they failed again and sellers came in with difficulty at first, but finally managed to take prices near S at 10. 4. Sellers were stopped by demand that came in at 11, but buying pressure was not enough and R could not be reached marking again a LH. 5. This time 10 did not proved to have any demand left and sellers managed to take prices all the way to 05. 6. I did not anticipated S at 05 but then price does what it has to do not what we expect it to do and we must adapt. After a small congestion, buyers took control of the market. 7. Buyers broke through R with ease, but failed to make a HH.} 8. After sellers took control around 10:00 only a small amount of S was found at 10, it can be seen how decisive sellers were by the smoothness of the downswings until 10:02 when sellers lost momentum and a new TR was defined. 9. Prices found S at 02, and a new TR was formed around 05 and 07, buyers were trying hard to keep the market up, as can be seen in the zigzaggy upswing from 10:05 to 10:11, then it can be seen that the ones with issues were the sellers who did not have it easy on the way down to 02. By 10:13 sellers had depleted their strength and did not manage to make a LL a sign of strength on the part of the buyers, who came in making smooth rallies until R was reached . 10. The rally here was paused for a brief period by R at 10, and then the rally continued but momentum diminished. 11. By 10:17 buyers were exhausted and sellers did not have a problem for taking prices down. 12. The top of the 02-07 TR provided all the demand that was needed to keep prices from falling, and after a hinge was formed, the upside BO allowed buyers to finally reach R. 13. After R was reached, the pressures were balanced as can be seen from the up and down swings. 14. After a decisive move of buyers that took prices from 11 to 17, sellers manage to keep prices from rising and after a LH was formed , the market was again in the hands of the sellers. 15. The fight was now between 14 and 10, where 10 provided S and 14 R. A TB at 10 gave in to buying pressure. 16. Buyers did not manage to reach R and lost control before 11:00 when prices were once again around S at 10.
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Tom, great notes. Just 2 comments: Did you test your setups? I see that you take some of your trades away from your S/R levels, perhaps that is why you are getting some false starts. I am not yet into trade design but some preliminary observations make me think that as long as the trade is started near S/R the probability of success increases dramatically and the r/r ratio also improves.