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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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As for a plan, if the HL at 90 holds, buy a break above R at 04. Sell the first LH after a cross below S at 90.
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The quote is from yesterday´s TIF post, just to give context to today's analysis. The market went back to S area at the top of the TR (89) and found S around 86. If buyers hold the LSL at 89 and keep pushing they could find R around: 00 12 37 55 Sellers can also hold, and keep buyers at bay within a TR or they could push harder and turn this into a failed BO, breaking the LSL at 86 in which case we would be inside the TR and prices would find S around: 54 18 98 For shorter term levels I will keep posting the 10.000 contracts chart, but my analysis will be based on the 100.000 in order to get a bigger picture.
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My recount for the day: 1. The market opened in a choppy environment that lasted until 9:40 and the result of this choppiness was a hinge that broke around 9:40. 2. The hinge reached the premarket low at 05 and there buyers came in strong taking prices to the MP of the hinge. 3. But buyers were not able to hold the MP and prices rapidly started falling. According to the plan posted pre market this would have been the chance for a short as this was the confirmation that sellers had managed to hold the LH after the open. But in RT I was not sure about that, as my analysis was that price was still in a TR, and should wait for price to break out of the TR. Price broke out of the TR with a minor Ret. 4. Sellers met S at 04, after a timid poke, they managed to break below, and then a larger Ret gave another opportunity for those who did not take the short at the BO from the TR 5. But the shorts joy was stopped at 00 where they met strong opposition from buyers until 10:16 6. Shorts finally managed to engineer a LH and then a strong down wave cut through S at 00 7. Sellers impetus started to diminish after 99 and by 96 it was all but exhausted after a failed strong downswing, then came a HL and finally a break above R at 00. This time the RET stopped just on the 00 level and then buyers kept pushing prices until R at 04 was reached. 8. 04 now provided enough R to keep buyers at bay and a V reversal occurred. 9. But sellers were not strong enough to break through S with resolve and buyers made a HL and then pushed prices back above 00 and all the way to R at 04 10. 04 did not hold buyers on their first attempt, as they rapidly turned it into S. But later prices hit the OL and sellers managed to take prices back towards S breaking the LSL.
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So far 12 has held buyers, and by 9:00 we already have a LH, a break below LSL and a poke at the TL from yesterday´s trend. The bias is bearish, with a short below S if sellers hold the LH at the open. OTOH long above 14 after a BO and a RET.
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We are finally out of the 89-18 TR and around the 712 R area. We are still in an uptrend but hitting the top of a TR from august, so must be watchful for a REV. Besides BOs usually come with RET so price could fall in smaller timeframes towards what is now S at 89-90. In the shorter term context, we are back in the channel, but approaching the top. If the 12 S/R level is taken out by eager buyers, next levels of R are to be found at: 22 30 38 47 58 If sellers hold R and prices make it back down then possible S areas might appear at: 04-00 90-87 82 78 72-69 As for a specific day´s plan I will post it around 8:45.
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My recount for yesterday´s action: 1. At the open the market was making a LH, but it was also breaking the TL from premarket around the 72 R level. 2. The market broke below 69 and the LSL, this would have triggered an entry on the short side at 68 according to the plan posted on TIF, prices kept on falling but found S at 67. Then after a failed attempt by sellers to set a LH buyers finally came in with conviction and pushed prices higher towards the opening high. 3. Buyers were contained around the 72 R level and the opening high, sellers started to push harder but did not get very far before a new and stronger buyers push above the LSH. 4. But we were not out of the opening range just yet and sellers managed to hold buyers and finaly pushed harder and took prices towards S at 72. At the second try at 72 sellers managed to break below. 5. Once again sellers pushed below S at 69, but by then we were in the chop within a TR between 67 and 74. 6. Given the size of the downwaves and the failure to break above R at 72, by the time 69 was crossed my bias was bearish, waiting for a break below the OL at 66. But buyers were not about to give up and held S at the OL, Then a HL and a break above LSH were some of the signals that PJ pointed out in the chat to make the long call. 7. R at 72 was also the point of contact with the down TL from 9:48 and it was easily taken after a small pullback. Then after a struggle, buyers turned 72 into R. 8. Once again Sellers pushed, but buyers held 72 and started showing more conviction. 9. Buyers stopped around the MP at 77, where they strugled with sellers and failed to hold the LSL, but finally buyers prevailed and pushed higher. 10. The Rise was not an easy one, but it was steady. For matters of trade management, this is the kind of scenario that one has to observe in order to define what will be understood as a LSL in the context of one´s strategy, as there were minor lows that were taken, but the trend was still up. Price broke through R at 83 without conflict. 11. As prices reached R at 86 sellers came back to stop buyers advance and managed to push them towards S at 83 where after 11:00 buyers came in once again to take prices higher. In hindsight the plan of waiting for a break of 90 was not very valid once prices returned to 66, as there were more opportunities along the way, so will have to work on that.
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Buyers not only managed to hold the S of the 18-89 TR but managed to take prices almost to the top of the range during the day. As for a shorter term analysis we are on an uptrend within the range and currently overbought. If buyers take this seriously and push with conviction R can be found before the top of the range at 82 and 86. Once 89-90 is taken the levels of interest are: 02-04 14 22 30 38 If sellers manage to stop buyers at R at 90 or below the levels of interest are : 72-68 62 55 48 40-37 As for a plan, I think that going long before R at 90 is taken is a big risk at this price levels, so I would wait for a BO and then buy the first RET, if it is not far away from the S/R level. If sellers manage to engineer a LH or a DT I would short a break of a DL with a cross below the LSL.
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Once again a choppy day, with a couple of opportunities, the recount of today´s observations below: 1. At the open the market was retracing from a strong upswing that started around 5:20 AM. After a strong downwave that broke the TL from the upswing, but before the MP of that Upswing was reached the market found S at 24 around 9:32,. as prices returned to the Down TL from 8:20 the upswings started to get stronger and after that TL was broken buyers pushed higher with more conviction. 2. Buyers met small R between 31 and 33, but sellers were not strong enough to break the DL from 9:32, instead prices kept on climbing. 3. The commitment of buyers was enough to cross through R at 37, but sellers finally came to give a good fight around 40. There, after a struggle between buyers and sellers and a couple of Fakeouts, sellers finally managed to breach S at 37, break the TL and push prices lower. 4. Sellers pushed, but gave up before reaching S at 31, then buyers managed to take prices to R at 37 where a new TR was formed. This TR lasted until 10:15 when sellers finally pushed below S at 33. From there a downtrend was born, but it was a short lasting trend that turned into a small TR around 10:20. 5. Prices climbed with a lot of effort towards R at 31, where once again prices entered into a TR. Finally by 10:49 prices exited that TR and the down TL from 9:45 was broken. 6. But prices did not jumped out of this TR, but a new hinge like TR formed until the end of the trading session at 11:00
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Premarket, sellers tested buying interest in the bottom of the TR and found enough S to take prices back into the TR. The current trend is still down as the new TL from the 13th is still holding, but after finding S at the bottom of the TR we can expect either buyers taking back the control of the market and pushing higher, or sellers finally breaking below S and pushing lower. Below 17 we have to look for S all the way back to Nov 7th and 8th. The levels below price are: 24 17 09 (premarket low and an old TR MP) 02 87 If S holds and prices push higher then expect R around: 31-33 37-40 48-49 55 62
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Today was a very dull day, here is my recount: 1. Price was in a downtrend at the open, after having crossed S at 33 preopen, some minor S was rapidly overtaken by supply at 31, after a minor Ret. 2. After reaching 26 sellers had a harder time taking prices lower and as prices made LLs sellers finally hit S at 24, where buyers came in strong. 3. Buyers increased their decision after 28, but were not able to breach R at 31 at their first attempt. Sellers started pushing and then pushed harder making a LH and breaking below LSL in what looked as an opportunity to get back into the sell side. But then buyers managed to come in again and push prices rapidly towards R. After a small TR formed buyers finally managed to push for higher prices, breaking above R at 33 with only a small RET. 4. Buyers pushed with decision and prices rose rapidly towards R at 37, but sellers were not about to give up and started to push prices lower. The first pullback around 9:45 was the first signal as this was the strongest selling wave in the whole morning. 5. A last push by buyers was a failure (DT) and after a small RET around 37 prices started falling. 6. Sellers were pushing lower, but they were not decisive, giving a signal of thinghs to come. 7. A break bellow 33 brought a reinvigorated supply and a much decisive downwave, but then the decline stopped and a small TR formed around 9:56. A failure to break the TR to the downside, accompanied by strong demand on the subsequent upwave, preceded a new rally towards R at 33. 8. HHs and LLs gave signal that indecision was still present in both sides of the market. Priecs fell once again and after breaking below the low of the 10:00 TR buyers came in strong and pushed prices towards R at 33. 9. Buyers could not advance higher and a LL gave the first signal of something being wrong. 10. Prices entered into a tighter TR between 10:15 and 10:19, just bellow R at 31. Then after a timid push by buyers prices managed to reach R at 33, but that was it, a LH gave signal that buyers were not strong enough. 11. After testing the low end of the narrow TR (27-33), prices climbed again and managed to set for some minutes above R at 33. 12-13. Prices could not get any higher and after a fakeout, sellers pushed strongly to the downside taking prices bellow 31 into the TR after the close.
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With the change in contracts all of the levels had to be adjusted. We are still in the same TR, just that the extremes had changed: The top is 89 and the bottom is 18. We are below the MP (54), possibly with the intention of testing S at 18. But before we get there, there is a smaller congestion (40-55) we have to get out of, and then another one just below. Levels below price: 40-37 33-31 24 17 if the bottom of the congestion at 40 holds and prices start climbing then we have to get out of this congestion. Levels above price: 48 55 62 68-72 77-82
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The review of the day´s action: 1. After flirting with the 67 S level preopen, the market settled above 69 at the open, where buyers came in strong and moved prices with decisiveness 2. Price bounced at the 73 R level and broke below LSL, but it found buyers at the top of the congestion from the open. This buying was enough to break above R at 73, and buyers pushed hard. 3. As the 77 R level was reached buyers stalled, but price did not show a LH nor a break below LSL, then once more buyers tried and this time they managed to push above R, but just for a few ticks before finding strong selling around 78. 4. After a Strong fight between buyers and sellers with the latter being the winners price again found S at 73, but this time sellers only found minor demand, and prices kept on falling after a small RET. 5. In the way from 73 to 69, buyers started pushing harder as can be seen in the increase in size of the upwaves. Then finally after reaching 67 and testing the OL, buyers pushed hard and broke R at 67. During the chat, PJ stated that this could have been a good place to enter. 6. Prices rose as buyers pushed with conviction, but found R at 73 where sellers also came in strong. The struggle between buyers and sellers lasted for nearly 20 minutes turning into a hinge that in turn became a rectangle. 7. After a BO above the TR and a RET to S at 73 prices skyrocketed. 8. 77 was broken and tested with ease, although buyers found increased opposition on the way to 83. This kind of opposition has the ability of closing trades in those systems that include trailing the LSL. 9-10. 83 was taken with ease, and it looks like there was no supply left above 83 as prices just went through the roof until R was found around 89. 11. After a LH at 89, sellers started pushing down, but buyers did not give up easily and provided S at 85. 12. But finally, buyers failed to hold and after a failed attempt to break above LSH, prices made a LH and then fell below S. Then 85 became R and a RET gave chance to shorts to participate on the plunge. 13. Sellers pushed with conviction but were stopped below 83. But buyers had a hard time taking prices up (zigzagging) and barely managed to reach R at 85 where sellers pushed hard once again. 14. After breaking S at 83, buyers tested it again just to find strong supply that took prices to 78, there after a small pullback, where once again buyers had a hard time advancing, prices plunged after 11:00.
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After unlimited amounts of almost free printed money could not move the market higher in the afternoon, sellers took advantage and started pushing lower in a rapid pace. The premarket session has been characterized by a struggle between PDL (which is also the MP of the last upswing from the 11th), and the MP of the 69-85 TR. At the time of this analysis prices are on what appears to be a downtrend, after breaking the TL from the 10th and setting a LH from yesterday´s afternoon. We are located at the edge of a TR that extends from 67 to 30 so a break below 67 could take us much lower, and a bounce from that level could take us back to the TR between 73 and 85. The levels of interest below PDL at 67 are: 57 51-49 45-43 36 30 If 67 holds this could turn out to be a dull day as prices break above the R towards yesterday´s PDH. The levels of interest above 67 69 are: 73 77 83-85 93-95
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Today was a dull day, volume was low and activity, although down in general, was choppy most of the time, jumping from TR to TR. 1. The market opened near PDH and found R around the 95 level, after a LH at the open, prices started going down with difficulty. 2. 90 was a premarket S level and provided the buying interest required to hold sellers. buyers made some forced attempts to reach R but were unable to make it. In fact buyers were not even able to hold prices above the opening TL and in the process a hinge was formed. The BO from the hinge resulted in a failure giving more clues about who had control over the market. 3 The break of the hinge to the downside, stopped at S at 90 once again, but this time sellers entered with conviction and took prices lower. 4. Buyers started buying with conviction, but that impetus stalled at R at 90 where a RET was formed. 5. As S at 85 was reached buyers came in to reduce the speed of the advance, and finally pushing prices above R at 85. 6. After sellers defended the LSH and pushed prices to a LL, a RET to R was idicative of sellers resolve. 7. Sellers managed to reach S at 81, there buyers were waiting and managed to create a TR that lasted until 10:38 8. After what appeared to be a BO from the range, buyers managed to make a DB and prices started climbing towards the TR. 9. Sellers defended the top of the range at 85, first with a DT and then with a LH and a LL and pushed prices lower. 10. Sellers kept on pushing, and after a failed break below S, a strong down wave marked the end of the TR and the entry into another congestion zone. 11. Price congested again between 78 an 81, providing fakeouts in both directions until the end of the session at 11:00
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Something to consider:
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As I pointed out in the chat, that was a hell of a ride for bulls yesterday. Price did not stop until the R at 95 was touched, but the fact that sellers had not been able to reach the MP of the last rally says something about buyers resolve and must be taken into account. As for context we are in channel with a steeper angle that the one we had yesterday´s morning, and holding this will need buyers commitment and money, so we will see what happens. If prices keep on climbing today and break above PDH at 96 then R could be found at: 04-06 13-18 30 38 If 96 holds buyers and sellers take control again, then S could be found at: 85-81 77 69-67 57 51
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Here is my analysis for today´s action. As you an see, from now on I will highlight formations (hinges and springboards) that I notice during the session as I am currently refining entry signals. 1. After breaking PDH at 60 before the open the market started the session with R at 67. Sellers tried take prices lower but they were unable to hold a LL, and after a hinge formed around 9:32 buyers managed to Break to the upside at 9:34 2. The break above R at 67 came with a small RET, before prices cut through R at 69 with ease. 3. This was the strongest climb of the day, but it found R at 73 that was last Friday ´s high (did not have it on my levels in the premarket, but the line was there from yesterdays chart.) From that level, prices started descending, making a LH around 9:36 and then breaking below the LSL. 4. 73 was turned into R in the pullback, and sellers kept pushing prices lower. 5. Buyers were waiting at 69, and did not let sellers reach the LSH at 67, which was a bullish sign. 6. Although buyers increased their conviction during the rise, it was not enough to overcome R at 73, an attempt at 9:42 let to a fakeout from the TR, that did not went well for the bulls. 7. Prices then returned to the bottom of the TR where buyers were again expecting sellers with their wallets full, once again a Hinge formed around 9:48 and the BO was the signal of continuation. 8. The break above 73 came once again with a RET before prices started climbing towards R at 77. 9. After a very narrow TR was formed, buyers made a first BO attempt at 9:53, but failed to get a following, then after sellers were unable to make a LL, buyers gave it a new try at 9:54 and managed to move prices to the next R level at 79. 10. After reaching the 79-81 area prices entered into the chop, and remained within the 77-81 area until 10:07 when buyers managed to make a HH, and then defend it as S in the RET. Then prices went into the chop again, this time making a hinge around 10:13. 11. The hinge had a false BO that stopped at R at 85, then a LH gave signal of buyers losing momentum and the break of the LSL confirmed. 12. But sellers were not ready yet to take prices lower and 81 provided S. After a failed attempt to break below 81 buyers defended a DB and prices started rising again, breaking out of the TR (green box). Prices made a small RET and then went up to test R at 85. 13. R was taken out ant then tested as S, before prices jumped towards 88 (PJ had this level I did not). At 88 prices formed a hinge once again with a bottom just above R at 85, so when the BO came to the upside it was another opportunity for the buyers, and then again a RET gave a chance for those who don't like to buy BOs. 14. 90 was not one of my levels in the premarket, but it was a PDH from last week. There sellers once again tried to stop buyers advance, and after setting a hinge, managed to break to the downside before the end of the session at 11:00. This was a very generous day for the BO buyers and the RET buyers as nearly all BOs came with a RET. I guess more than one REV trader could have lost more than his shirt if he was stubborn today.
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Price found S yesterday´s afternoon around 37 and has been making HHs, at this time (8:07) we are at PDH and a break above that level would be indicative of continuation. If buyers manage to break above 60, next levels of interest are: 67-69 77-81 85 95 04 If sellers manage to stop buyers at 60 then my levels are: 57 50 45 37 30
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Here is the time series of the NYT again. NYT.xlsx
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My analysis for the day: 1. The market opened within the context of a downtrend around the 30 S area, but soon after the open, buyers managed to make a HL and from then started pushing prices higher. 2. After reaching R at 37 buyers failed to keep price on the rise and after a small congestion below 40, sellers started pushing prices down. 3. 37 was broken down and acted as R for the first downswing RET. 4. After sellers failed to reach S at 30, buyers got the ability to mark a HL around 33 and from there started to push prices higher. This time buyers managed to push above previous R at 40 and kept prices rising making HLs 5. Preliminary R came at 44 but was easily overtaken by demand that broke through the 45 and de 47 levels with ease. 6. As sellers tried to take prices down, were unable to reach S at 47 and buyers retook control after this small RET. 7. 50 Provided R, although a HH was tried by the buyers, they could not take prices high enough to stimulate a following. 8. Prices entered a congestion area around 45-47. 9. The congestion was expanded to 44 where buyers were waiting and rapidly changed the pace of the declined and formed HLs. 10. As R was reached at 47 and sellers failed to break with strength below the LSL, buyers pushed again and took prices into the range. 11. The range contracted even more until 10:54 when there was a BO from this springboard, and price rose rapidly. 12. 58 provided momentary R, but buyers were too eager and managed to push prices higher. 13. At the end of the session, prices had reached the 61 R level where buyers were finally stopped by the sellers.
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Well it looks like the admin at TL finally solved the problem with my IP. Lets hope it lasts. This is my recount of friday´s action on the NQ. Before the open the market was in a TR within 64 and 71, after the explosive up move that came after the release of the employment data. 1. At the open price had found R at 69, and after a sellers final push towards 64 buyers came in the market again and managed to take out 69 just to be stopped at 71 by sellers. 2. A small DT was set and then selling waves started getting stronger. 3. A small congestion at 69 gave signal of buyers trying to hold, but they were unable and prices kept on falling, although with more buyers opposition. 4. As prices reached 61 buyers came in again trying to defend the long side, but the inability to get a HL and then the LH gave signal again of sellers strength. 5. Buyers next try was at 57 where after being tested by the sellers, pushed hard towards R at 61. 6. Sellers did not give up their position and held 61. There was a LH, hardly noticeable and then a LL that gave indications of sellers being on top of tha game again. 7. THis time 57 was easily taken, just a small RET at first, and then after buyers gave it a last try a bigger RET in which 57 was now held as R. From there the downtrend continued until prices found S at 50 and a large upswing came to scare sellers. 8. This swing looked like short selling as buying pressure stalled around 54, from there prices fell and broke 50 with just a small RET. 9 Prices entered the firs serious TR of the day where a TB (Triple Bottom) was set, then buyers started pushing upwards and managed to turn 50 into S again, then at 10:04 after a final RET prices jumped up towards R at 57. 10. 57 held buyers from getting any further. and after a series of LHs sellers finally retook control of the market. This time, the road down the hill was not easy as buyers fought all the way towards S at 50. 11. But then, after buyers were unable to hold a HH prices broke S with no difficulty. 12. S at 47 was near the day´s low and provided temporary S, but then it turned into R and provided the platform for sellers to take prices lower. 13. S at 45 was not felt and prices went all the way to 38 without much interference. 14. On the way up 45 provided R, but then sellers could not take prices lower and buyers took advantage of sellers weakness to push prices higher. 15. This time 45 did not hold, but the nature of the rally was suspicious as it looked to bumpy to be indicative of buyers resolve. 16. The resolve of buyers was tested at 48, where they stalled and sellers started pushing down again, and this time with more conviction that buyers. 17. Sellers turned 45 into R again but once more buyers held at 41. 18. After finding R at 45 again a LH gave signal of Sellers strength and prices went lower. After a struggle between 41 and 45, prices finally reached S at 37 at 11:01
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After stooping at the 49 S area yesterday just after 11:00, buyers managed to take prices above the top of the channel and turned 57 into a S area. By midnight prices had surpassed the MP of the downswing at 74 that was also the bottom of the 29th 30th TR, after failing to reach the MP of that TR buyers ran out of steam and sellers took control of the market. As of now prices are around the 67-69 S/R level within an mildly up-sloping channel with the following levels of interest: Support: 57 50-49 45 37 Resistance: 74 80-81 95-98 04-06
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I had a bearish bias today, given the context defined in the TIF thread, that did now allow me to see the opportunities that appeared today on the long side, but that is the learning curve I guess. My aftermarket analysis for the day: The market opened around the 69 R level. Buyers managed to break above R seconds before the open but were stoped by sellers who rapidly retook control of the market. Sellers managed to push prices lower with conviction until 9:33 when they started to falter. By 9:35 buyers had started to show stronger conviction and managed to set a HL by 9:36. The level of the bounce was not one of my s/r levels. After confirming 67 as a S area buyers were unable to get above the days High and by 9:46 a LH that followed a strong down wave gave a confirmation of buyers having lost control of the market. Once again prices found S around 63, and buyers took prices higher but this time the road was bumpier. R at 69 was reached with difficulty and buyers gave up very rapidly, a LH at 9:58 was a confirmation of sellers conviction, it was followed by a rapid decline that managed to turn 63 into a R level, giving sellers a chance to take prices even lower. At 60 buyers were waiting with a big pile of cash, as they were able to propel prices towards R in a very fast wave. Buyers broke above 67 and tested S there, pushed prices higher above 69, but then were unable to beat sellers who were defending the HOD. 10:13 was the turning pint of the market. After a strong down wave that pierced S at 69, sellers rapidly came in and secured this price as R pushing prices towards 67. When 67 gave small S, they took it out again and pushed price lower and lower. Previous minor S at 63 and 60 provided a small pause, but buyers were unable to hold sellers from dumping even more stock. Finally buyers started fighting with conviction at 57, where a longer pause was provided. After testing buying interest around 10:33, sellers realized they had the upper hand and pushed prices bellow S, managing to reach 53 where they were rejected strongly towards R at 67. A struggle between buyers and sellers was evident around 57 making HHs and LLs (a trend follower´s nightmare) By the end of the trading session (11:00) sellers had managed to keep sellers bellow the LSH at 69, and after a LH managed to push prices lower.
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After buyers were unable to hold prices above R 95 sellers used that weakness into their advantage and turned 95 a R level making a LH. From there it was a bear bonanza until S at 67 was hit and prices went into oversold condition. Right now we are on the down trending channel again and SL is still holding. If 74 holds as R and prices go down again S would be expected at : 69-67 57 49-45 37 If the recent reversal is serious and buyers show decisiveness above 74, R would be expected at: 80-81 85-90 95 704
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After crossing the MP of the Sep-Nov decline, sellers started exerting pressure over buyers and finally managed to hold the 90 R level. During the morning the TL was poked, it is still not broken, but one must be wary as G put it in his post. The low volume yesterday is a signal that buyers withdrawal it could be people taking a break or they are just testing sellers resolve before pushing even higher. If the trend holds and buyers keep taking prices higher R could be found at: 682-90 area 737 762 788 If sellers act with intent and break the TL then S could be found at: 643 593 578 514