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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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Levels for the morning: Remember the chat link is http://stinto.net/en/sn6x5 We are almost at the top of the current TR.
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Just some observations.
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As you pointed out we are actually in the middle of a TR between 05 and 47.
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This is my analysis, I looked for hinges, but I also noticed activity around S/R levels and pointed out levels of entry, exist are not currently under analysis: The conventions are explained at the lower right corner 1. As prices reached the 22 level at the open a DT and the break of the last swing low were signs of weakness. This was confirmed by a LH. 2. Before reaching S at 13 buyers started fighting sellers and that was shown in a small TR and 2 hinges, that finally broke up to the upside. No position taken here as prices were away from S. 3. After prices exited the TR R at 22 and made a new high a Ret gave an entry signal (no hinge here), but then a deeper pullback activated the stops on that trade. A hinge around 10:00 broke to the upside and provided another entry. 4. This is something to work in during back testing, because this kind of environment could possibly activate all my exits and leave me out of the trade. Any advice here would be appreciated. 5.Price reached R at 30, and after buyers failed to attract a following at 32 prices collapsed and a LH gave further indications of weakness. 6. In case the long from 25 was still active this is a tricky one, as it looks like an opp to short, but we are still above the TL so perhaps waiting for the TL break is the prudent thing to do. I did not think about SAR, but waited for the break of the TL to activate a short, but this came as a bad trade as the stop was taken out before price went down, and I do not have reentry conditions according to my PA.
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Hi Tupapa, I hope your trading plan is going well.
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From today on I will also post a premarket action analysis, as it has become a subject of discussion during the chat.
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My levels and possible courses of action depending on the days movement, I will focus today on entering at the S/R levels, according to price action on the 3 types of entry REV, RET, BO. CHAT LINK Your Own Chat - Free & Easy! ? » stinto.net «
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Today the market did not move much, and most of the session it just played around the 12 S/R level. I have marked all the triangles that I identified in RT, what I am after is defining which of these triangles classify as a hinges. Any advice here would be appreciated. The other thing that is hurting the P&L here is the chop, as can be seen once we entered in the chop around 9:47 all the triangles gave poor entry signals if not outright losses. I will keep looking for this during last year trading to see if I can come out with a pattern, any advice here would be appreciated as well.
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BTW the active chatroom is ACTIVE CHAT LINK
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My levels for today: The plan is to look for hinges around S/R levels and trade the BOs of the LSH or LSL. (Short below R, Long Above S)
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Was the chat changed again?
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We are once again around the 38 S/R level but the context is different as we are a out of the channel and the H at 43 has been tested overnight. R levels are: 47 58 68 S levels are: 30 22 13-10 04
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Plan for yesterday: " The plan is buy the successful test of 38 or short below 38 after the first test of R. The short is riskier, because as DB pointed out we are on an uptrend." The market opened above 38 and sellers tested the level around 9:33 but were unsuccessful, a hinge formed and that was the signal for an entry (1st diamond), this resulted in a trust and then prices just went mad making HH and LLs. 1. S was reached around 9:45 and prices finally broke below S after a hinge BO this hinge could have yielded a profit depending on trade management. Buyers were waiting at 36, and after a struggle and another hinge prices fell again, this time prices did not held lower and a strong uptrust was the signal that something was wrong with sellers, this would have probably mean that this hinge entry would have possibly ended in a loss or at best a BE trade. 2. After a strugle and a not so clear hinge buyers tested interest above R but a strong downwave around 10:00 gave the signal of weakness. In this case the entry activated with the hinge was a long one that most possibly would have ended in a loss. Weakness was confirmed by a LH below R and a strong down wave, then around 33 buyers started pushing prices up, but the effort was too high and the result was too poor. In fact a hinge formed around 10:03 but it would have been a losing trade again. Around 10:13 a hinge gave an entry signal and prices fell rapidly, then a small congestion formed above S and that gave birth to 3 more hinges (entries marked with diamonds). 3. 30 did not provide much S as prices fell through it without difficulty. Prices fell all the way to 33 where another hinge was formed, the entry here was a long one and one that would have ended in a loss. 4. Prices finally reached S at 22, after a strong upwave and a HL another hinge was formed, but sellers were not about to give up and tested S again making this hinge a losing one. Prices entered into a congestion (green box) and after a failed BO another hinge was formed.
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My levels for this morning: Buyers managed to get through the TR (22-38) without much trouble and now prices are falling towards the top of the TR at 38, that could provide S. If 38 holds I would look for R at: 47 58 68 If 38 does not hold and prices return to the TR then S should be found at: 30 22 12 04 The plan is buy the successful test of 38 or short below 38 after the first test of R. The short is riskier, because as DB pointed out we are on an uptrend.
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This is my recount of the day´s activity, I have also highlighted the Hinges that I identified in hindsight, as I am testing hinges in my back testing, I want to compare what I identify in hindsight with what I see in RT, still different things so I have to work harder. Anyway, the red diamonds represent entry levels, the exit is up to the strategy and number of contracts of each trader. 1. Price reached R at 22, sellers rejected buyers with strength and then tested it with a LH. CSW trade could be to short the break of the DL after the LH. But that is not what I am testing. 2. Price congested around S/R at 22, there were 2 entries activated using hinges but both of them failed, the only one that was successful was at the last hinge just before breaking R at 22. 3. Strong rejection around R at 30, the dynamics of the market changed fast an sellers took control of the market. CSW trade could have been tho short the hinge but it would have been to far away from R so I am not so sure, perhaps a break of the DL below the LSH (not large enough to classify in the ZigZag chart, but can bee seen in the gray price chart) This is all hindsight as I am just back testing, so all the comments and critics are welcome.
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Thank you DB, we were discussing that in the chat, where btw you are missed. I have been using the zig-zag tool in the RT tick chart, the setup is that 1 point retracement is needed to define a new wave, this has decreased considerably the number of entries I was getting in my backtesting and improving my overall performance, I just wanted to check if the Zig Zag tool is compatible with the Wyckoff wave chart and wanted to know your thoughts about it.
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Prices are in a hinge and the BO can be either up or down: Levels of R 22 30 38 47 58 Levels of S 12 04-00 96 90 82
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My levels fot today are essentially the same as yesterday as we are around the same price levels: S 12 00 89 54 R 37 55 73 94 As prices have not been able to break above the 37 level and hold I interpret this as weakness and therefore will mainly look for selling opportunities, nevertheless we all know that the market can be fickle so will look for buying opportunities above R at 37.
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Here is the recount of today´s action, there are not trades described yet as I am currently filtering different entry setups, but I am focusing more and more on hinges and rectangles, that is why these shapes are traced over the chart. The market opened with sellers pushing buyers to the downside towards the S level at 37. 1. After sellers managed to take out S at the open and tested R successfully at that same level, they started losing steam and finally buyers started pushing higher around 33. Choppiness took over the market and a hinge formed after the low of the opening range was defined. Prices broke out of this hinge. 2. But buyers were not able to hold the HH above R at 37 and the LH around 9:46 gave a signal of weakness. Sellers started pushing harder taking prices inside this new TR between 33 and 37. 3. After reaching the bottom of the TR buyers came in strong taking prices to the bottom of the range in two strong swings, at first the LSH at 2 provided R, but then after sellers could not take prices below the MP of the Last swing, buyers came strong once again and this time managed to break above R at 37-38 and kept on pushing until the PDH was reached. 4. Sellers were waiting at the PDH and rapidly configured a V reversal taking prices towards the MP of the last upswing. 5. Buyers pushed and broke above the LSH and the PDH, turning this last one into S and pushing even higher until reaching 46. But at 46 sellers were waiting and stopped buyers advance rapidly, making a LH around 10:10. 6. At first it looked as if the PDH was providing S, but buyers finally gave up and prices collapsed below S going all the way to 39 were S was found an choppiness took over the market. 7. A failed attempt to break above the PDH turned into a V reversal back to the bottom of the TR. 8. By the end of the session prices were back at 37 were S was provided rapidly and prices bounced.
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Buyers managed to hold the 12 S level, keeping prices out of the Aug congestion. We are now at the 37 R level again where sellers have managed to keep buyers at bay. If buyers manage to break 37, then the following levels of interest should be: 55 73 94 16 If 37 holds then the levels of S could be: 12 00 89 54 Given the fact that the old chatroom does not work i have created a new one the link is the following: CHAT LINK
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Tupapa, I think that if you go back to the beginning of November you will find several levels bellow E that will provide you with guidance if prices manage to exit the current TR.
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Well, happy new year to everyone in the forum. After the lawmakers finally came up with a bill the market has been rallying very fast and we are currently at a R area at the top of a small TR from Aug. If buyers manage to take prices out of this TR the next area of interest is the next area of interest is the TR from late Aug and early Sep with levels at: 737 755 773 If the current TR manages to hold and sellers keep prices lower then 700 would attract prices (MP) and then 89 will serve as S. Below this TR S can be found at: 654 618 P.S. I don't have the new chatroom link, if someone has it, please send me a PM with it.
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To take into consideration..
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Here is my analysis for the day, I have also included what would have been two trades taken using what was written as a plan in the TIF. 1. The market failed to break away from the downtrend channel and by the open was back within the context of the downtrend. After struggling sellers managed to take S at 96 and from then a sharp fall took prices towards the 90 S area. 2. Buyers stepped in but were unable to hold seller who cut through S at 90 and pushed prices without RET until 88 was reached. At 88 a small RET would have given an opportunity to execute the trade proposed in the TIF thread. (Entry Red Diamond, Stop green triangle) 3. Prices fell and cut through S at 86 with ease with only a small RET 4. Sellers finally found significant buyers at 82, this is where all 5 contracts would have been exited (1 at S, 1 at the Break of the 1st SL, 1 at the break of the LSH, 1, at the break of the 2nd SL and the last one at the break of the 2 LSH). Now this proved to be a mistake as prices then fell all the way to 78, so will have to work on that. 5. After finding Strong S at 78 (Did not have it as a level), prices made a HL and started climbing with conviction cutting through R at 82 6. 86 now provided strong R and after failing to break on a HH, sellers pushed stronger making a LH and then the LSL, I did not have re-entries defined in my plan so no trade would have been taken here. 7. 82 was broken and then became R on the RET, then prices fell towards the LOD where once again S was found forming a DB that PJ pointed out in the chat. 8. Cutting through R at 82 was harder, and a hinge formed, the prices jumped with conviction without a RET after the BO from the hinge. 9. As opposed to sellers who had an easy ride on the way down, buyers were finding opposition each time they arrived to an S/R level, at 86 another hinge formed. But the hinge was finally broken and prices jumped towards R at 90. 10. The 90-92 area provided strong R, and a TR formed between 10:08 and 10:22, prices then broke below the bottom of the TR. I guess this is another selling opportunity, and I marked the Hindsight places where the trade could have been taken and closed. 11. Prices fell through S at 86 and then found R at the same level on the RET. 12. 82 once again provided S, this time there were more buying interest at this level and it held until the end of the trading session at 11. 13. What had been strong R just minutes ago was crossed without difficulty signaling sellers giving up. 14. But after reaching the 88 level sellers defined a barrier that turned into a DT at 10:44, now prices once again fell through S at 86, and after a RET sellers pushed harder towards S at 82. 15. Once again buyers were ready and sellers could not advance any further, by then we were into a big hinge from 10:00 and it was almost 11, so we called it a day.